It may not help or be pertinent, but Delta is allowing free ticket rescheduling or cancellations on reservations scheduled before 30 Sep 20. I had to do the same thing for a trip scheduled later next month.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter Richie O
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It may not help or be pertinent, but Delta is allowing free ticket rescheduling or cancellations on reservations scheduled before 30 Sep 20. I had to do the same thing for a trip scheduled later next month.
What does that have to do with Cuomo's directive exactly? Did he not know what was happening in the LTC facilities? Was he prohibited from taking action to upgrade LTC facility safety before this federal "guidance"?
Follow up on earlier study that indicated that antibodies decrease over time...31 out of 34 patients showed antibodies after initial test and had significant decay of antibodies in <90 days.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025179
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025179
Trump, Fauci, Birx, CDC, Governors, Mayors...lots of blame to go around. Like any defective company, the responsibility starts at the top, and Trump will take the fall as any culture would demand and expect. Accountability will continue to cascade down from there, and plenty of others will look bad in the autopsies of this crisis — some will lose elections, some agencies will see wholesale changes, new ones probably created, some actors will just be criticized in history books and investigative journalism pieces.
Some will get away with it; probably not the top of the house though. Too visible—or invisible depending on the point in the crisis, too outspoken.
Some will get away with it; probably not the top of the house though. Too visible—or invisible depending on the point in the crisis, too outspoken.
Not defending the move in NY, because I don’t know the details, but if Florida tightened the ship when they had 7 deaths (but evidence of rising counts) on June 15th, they probably wouldn’t be reporting 132 deaths and 9,500 cases today. Just saying, trouble usually start small and grows bigger.
Yes, it is...because I’m sick of reading all of these posts saying it’s someone’s fault and not someone else’s. And, yes, China and the WHO certainly will come up in the postmortems, though their role in the development of an international crisis won’t clear anyone of blame for the ongoing mess when said crisis arrived on our doorstep (and six months on...).
really because I see the phony NY Times posted here all the time....better keep that one off too
It would have never left China if the CCP didn't lie to the WHO and the rest of the world.
With that said, let's all focus on squashing CV instead of playing Monday morning QB
All the posting with Cuomo and Murphy are political. Glad that Trump is talking about the virus again.
There are a lot of heavy people down South.Plus,millions lack shots for other diseases.Some studies believe that may be another factor.
Was reading up on arthritis and the effects as we age especially for 60’s and up . An inflammatory disease of course and perhaps related to cytokine storm ... leads to many other diseases including vascular inflammation and gastric intestinal issues such as Crohn’s disease... I would assume many of those who contracted Covid19 early on never realized this as a risk factor. I agree the lack of immunizations amongst the over 60 crowd is a big issue coming up in the next few years.
Nice little article on how there is more to it than just antibodies. A couple doctors explain it in layman's terms. Nothing new, but easy to understand.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...ibodies-may-fade-fast-protection-may-n1234498
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...ibodies-may-fade-fast-protection-may-n1234498
Well, it's only political if Trump makes it political. Otherwise it would just be a president giving the country a briefing on stats, interventions, vaccine and treatment progress.
Because the comment is specifically about bashing Cuomo and Murphy but praising Trump. Pretty obvious, no??
Is it good or bad? It’s what Trump did today.
The other comments about a Murphy and Cuomo are bashing them.
Neither. Actions speak louder than words. Both sides sicken me about who is doing a better job. None of them are.
Anyone on either side of the aisle who says "this is political" or asks "isn't this political" is contributing to the decline of discourse in today's society. Unless I'm mistaken and you happen to be a fourth grader please stop begging for a moderator to supervise our conversation. We're adults here.
The last thread on this was locked out. When someone has an agenda they are bringing nothing to the table is an issue. Supporting one side or another is the real 4th graders actions. I have no agenda. Just come here to see what is going on.
In a normal world, I'd agree with you, but as @WhiteBus said, this thread was locked once, early on, then locked and a new one started (this one) with clear warnings about political content from Richie in the first post: "Now here is everyone’s one warning, the minute things get political here the moderators will have no choice but to ban you."
There have been a couple of temp-bans, as far as I can tell, and some posts deleted (including a couple of mine), but far less than there would be if they were being tougher - maybe they're trying not to overdo it. Not sure, but I'd rather not see the thread locked for good, so I try (not always successfully) to mostly post science/info stuff - that's easier on a day like yesterday when a ton of interesting scientific data/papers came out. Harder on a day like today that's slow in science and had much more political news.
Not a good day. Highest death total since 6/2, although still a bit less than half the peak deaths on several days in April/May, as per the graphic below, and the 7-day moving average is up about 60% from its low point in early July. Also, three states set record daily highs - Nevada, Oregon, and Tennessee - and FL/TX/AZ/CA were all not far from their peaks. More to come later tonight...
Time to revisit this, since I said there would be a 2-4 week lag from cases starting to rise significantly to deaths rising significantly in response. With those significant rises starting around 6/15 for TX/FL/CA (with CA maybe 2-3 days behind TX/FL; also the start was maybe 6/1 in AZ and 6/22 in GA), that meant deaths were likely to start rising somewhere between 6/29 and 7/13 in those three states and looking at the graphs below, we certainly started to see death rates rise by around 7/7-7/8 and they were clearly rising by 7/13. The huge question, obviously, is how high will they go? Keep in mind that the following comparisons are being made on what we all know are likely flawed datasets, but it's the only data we have and my main focus is on death rates, assuming we should at least be able to count those reasonably well. I used the COVID Tracking Project graphics (JHU data), as they offer cases/hospitalizations/deaths and tests per capita on a 7-day moving average on one page per state, so the state comparisons are at least apples to apples. I wish they offered the multiple state comparisons on one chart for deaths that they offer for cases.
https://covidtracking.com/data
My guess has been per capita deaths will be moderately to significantly lower than what we saw in the first wave in the NE US, especially in NY/NJ, so I'm including NJ for comparison purposes (the graphics below also show the US death rates on the same graphic as each state and these are all 7-day moving averages). My first guesstimate was about 1/2-2/3 the death rate, per capita of NJ, given the much younger average infected patient age in these S/W states, the lesser disease severity seen when tested positive (since far more people are being tested per day, per capita now), and, the combination of improved medical procedures and pharmaceutical treatments (like remdesivir, dexamethasone, tocilizumab, and especially convalescent plasma). I then adjusted that guess to 1/3-2/3 the NJ per capita rate when it started looking like hospitalization rates would likely be maybe 30-40% lower in AZ vs. NJ's (as AZ was ahead of the other states). CA/TX/FL are still ramping up in hospitalization rates, but are well behind the hosp/case ratio we saw in NJ.
Looking at the graphics below, NJ had a peak of just over 30 deaths per 1MM people, so 1/3-2/3 of that would roughly be 10-20 deaths/1MM. Right now, we see FL closing in on 4 and Texas around 3.4, while CA is just below 3, but TX/CA have both had recent peaks on multiple days around 4 deaths/1MM and FL has been up to 6. These numbers are still well below 30 deaths/1MM and below my 10-20 guesstimate, but they're rising and the rise is looking at least moderately steep right now, plus AZ is already almost at 10 deaths/1MM, with several days peaking over that level, so unfortunately, it looks like at least 10 deaths/1MM is in range. Let's hope CA/TX/FL don't even reach the 10 deaths per 1MM level and that we can figure out exactly why, i.e., how much of the drop is due to which variable (age, severity, procedures, or treatments).
And let's also hope that the greatly increased case levels, which are now close to or above (in FL and AZ) NJ's per capita case rate (which we should note was likely significantly greater than reported, as full testing wasn't in place back then at the peak) don't lead to major outbreaks among the elderly in these states. If that happens and the average infected age rises significantly, NJ-level death rates per capita start to become possible.
Summary:
- Nationally, cases are peaking at ~2X vs. the first wave, while hospitalizations haven't quite peaked, but will likely be a bit more than half of what they were in the first wave (per capita). Deaths are up 60% from their early July low and climbing steadily, but are only 35-40% of the April peak.
- Cases have peaked (AZ) or are likely peaking (FL/TX/CA) at levels at or above NJ's peak case levels per 1MM people (per capita basis), except for CA, which is well below NJ's peak.
- AZ's hospitalizations peaked at ~55% of NJ's (per 1MM) and FL/TX will likely peak in that region (they haven't peaked yet, though), while CA will likely peak well below that, at maybe 25% of NJ's peak; these reductions vs. NJ are likely due to the much younger age of those infected in this wave.
- We still don't know where death peaks will end up but my guesstimate has been 1/3-2/3 of the peaks of NY/NJ, partly due to the younger age of those infected (as above) and partly due to improved treatments and procedures. AZ is already at 35-40% of NJ's peak and deaths there might be starting to peak, but not in the other states yet. FL/TX seem likely to reach 1/3 of NJ's peak level, but CA will likely not be more than 15% of NJ's peak.
Updating this post a week later and will try to do so weekly for awhile, as weekly as likely infrequent enough to not be fooled by 1-2 day deviations that aren't that relevant (like the usual weekend dips), but frequent enough to see changes occurring. Let's look at cases first, starting with the national picture, where total cases seem to be just reaching a peak around 65-67K cases per day on a 7-day moving average (all the data are on that basis in the charts below), which is about twice what the peak in the first wave was (around 31-32K cases/day).
The "good" news is Arizona has likely peaked in cases and started to decline a bit, although it's too early to call it a real decline, yet, IMO, while Florida, Texas, and California are all nearing or possibly at their peaks (I think, judging by the shape of the 7-day curves). Many other states could be discussed, but these seemed relevant, as FL/TX/CA are the three most populous states and they're peaking and AZ peaked a bit earlier and has a similar population as NJ, which I'm including as a comparison from the worst of the first wave. It should be noted that AZ peaked about 20% above NJ's peak, FL is peaking around 40% above NJ's peak, TX is near NJ's peak, and CA is only at about 60% of NJ's peak (I'm also using per capita data for all the graphs, so they're "apples to apples" comparisons).
Details - Hospitalizations
With regard to hospitalizations, on a national level, hospitalizations are still growing, but not as fast as they were (they only lag cases by a week or so) and they're looking to probably be only a bit above what they were in the first wave, despite there likely being twice as many cases. This was expected a few weeks ago, when it became clear that there was a much younger average age of those infected in most states in this current wave (vs. wave 1) and the hospitalization rates in AZ (which had a 1-2 week earlier outbreak than FL/TX/CA) were tracking at about half the rate of NJ's. Note that if COVID were as deadly as it was in the first wave (it's thought to be) one would expect eventual death peaks to mirror relative hospitalization rates, i.e., if a state peaks at 50% of NJ's peak hospitalization rate, one would expect deaths to be around 50%, also (assuming no improved treatments/procedures).
Looking at states, AZ has now peaked at about 55% of NJ's hospitalization rate, i.e., about 500 per 1MM vs. NJ's 900 per 1MM (all per capita). FL hasn't peaked yet and is at about half of NJ's peak rate, while TX might be starting to peak at just below half of NJ's rate (too early to call yet), and CA is close to peaking and is only at about 25% of NJ's peak. It's not surprising that CA's case and hospitalization numbers (and likely deaths) are not as bad as the other three states in this comparison, as CA reopened later and after having achieved better reopening metrics, plus CA made masking mandatory on 6/18, just as cases were starting to rise significantly, while the other three states didn't start issuing mask requirements until later and they're not nearly as strong as California's.
Details - Deaths
With respect to deaths, on a national level, they've jumped about 60% from the low in early July and are now up around 830/day on a 7-day moving average, which is about 35-40% of the death rate at its peak in April. Note that the 4 states (FL/TX/CA/AZ) I've been discussing account for about half of that death toll per day, which also means that there are many other states with less people, many of which are also spiking in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. We still don't know where death peaks for these states will end up (or total deaths, since that will also depend on whether a peak is sharp or a plateau and long decline, like NY/NJ had), but my guesstimate has been 1/3-2/3 of the peaks of NY/NJ, partly due to the younger age of those infected (as above) and partly due to improved pharmaceutical treatments (such as remdesivir, dexamethasone, tocilimuzab and convalescent plasma) and improved medical procedures.
With regard to specific states, AZ is already at 35-40% of NJ's peak and deaths there might be starting to peak, although it's too early to make that call yet - they've had several individual spikes that were at 50-60% of NJ's peak, so I think that 50-60% is possible to reach with the 7-day moving average. FL/TX/CA have not peaked yet and FL/TX, in particular appear to still be climbing rapidly, with FL currently at about 20% of NJ's peak and TX currently at almost 15% of NJ's peak, so FL/TX seem likely to reach at least 1/3 of NJ's peak level (largely based on comparison to AZ) and maybe more. However, CA likely won't reach more than 15% of the NY/NJ peak given the lower hospitalization rates.
Keep in mind that all of these are educated guesses and a big wild card is assuming cases don't go way up amongst the elderly from here on out - they already are increasing in FL and if that continues and also occurs in the other states, these states could easily reach or exceed the upper end of my estimated range of 2/3 the level of NJ's deaths. Hope people find these to be informative - please let me know if any obvious errors (hard to keep all the #'s straight, lol).
https://covidtracking.com/data#chart-annotations
The guy at the top says it's gonna get worse before it gets better.
6 months in and the guy at the top vows to Devolp a stratgy.
6 months in and the guy at the top vows to Devolp a stratgy.
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He is like the stupid kid in class, who does no homework all semester and comes to the teacher in the last week asking how he can improve his grade.
Really?
A logical decision that some here still refuse to understand.
Politics and learn how to spell
^^^^^^^^^^totally political (and dopey)
Hmmmmm:
The feds placed a $2 billion order for 100 million doses of Pfizer’s potential coronavirus vaccine under the Trump administration’s push to have a shot ready by next year.
Americans would receive Pfizer’s shots for free under the deal announced Wednesday — assuming the vaccine it’s developing with the German biotech firm BioNTech wins federal approval.
“We’ve been committed to making the impossible possible by working tirelessly to develop and produce in record time a safe and effective vaccine to help bring an end to this global health crisis,” Dr. Albert Boula, Pfizer’s chairman and CEO, said in a statement.
https://nypost.com/2020/07/22/feds-order-100-million-doses-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-for-2b/
The feds placed a $2 billion order for 100 million doses of Pfizer’s potential coronavirus vaccine under the Trump administration’s push to have a shot ready by next year.
Americans would receive Pfizer’s shots for free under the deal announced Wednesday — assuming the vaccine it’s developing with the German biotech firm BioNTech wins federal approval.
“We’ve been committed to making the impossible possible by working tirelessly to develop and produce in record time a safe and effective vaccine to help bring an end to this global health crisis,” Dr. Albert Boula, Pfizer’s chairman and CEO, said in a statement.
https://nypost.com/2020/07/22/feds-order-100-million-doses-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-for-2b/
and this is political, how?
it's reporting what Trump said. no commentary, no additional information. you guys are so whiny.
Next year can't come soon enough. Hopefully next stage of trials goes well.
Lol it's not a complaint--simply noted the fact. Should we start listing more facts about Cuomo and deBlasio? I hardly have any issues diving into a political debate about the chicomvirus. Bring it on.
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Operation Warp Speed! Boom! #GoPharma
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