yeah good question, the positive test % hasn’t really decreased in most states the last time I looked.
Same was true for NJ too. It would not looked flat on a chart for weeks because there was a ceiling for testing.
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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter Richie O
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yeah good question, the positive test % hasn’t really decreased in most states the last time I looked.
Same was true for NJ too. It would not looked flat on a chart for weeks because there was a ceiling for testing.
Ive never seen a company issue a press release speaking to safety outcomes (especially citing them as impressive) but say nothing about efficacy other than we're still working on it. That's odd to me.
I feel like every news article I see about Leronlimab is odd. I’ll be pretty surprised if they churn out good efficacy results, but hope they do.
It's not a conspiracy. It's just good business. Back in early July the CEO goes public after Moderna get a grant. You really think that was by accident. They wanted their slice and got it today. BTW I'm allergic to cats so that's definitely not me! :Laughing
Moderna typically seems to have odd news surrounding their news.
Moderna like Cytodyn, and even Biontech, being relative small timers in the pharma scene make huge moves on every bit of Covid news. Pfizer moves a couple points on $2 billion news.
@WhiteBus This was my contribution to the debate a couple weeks ago.
They didn't get it today. They get it when they produce an FDA approved vaccine.
And that is why I said Pfizer finally went public. A proven Pharma was losing out to basically start ups. It worked.
Umm you really believe that? I'm being very serious. There is no doubt in my mind they will get coverage. Three weeks to get this deal done. Pfizer isn't signing a deal without it if they don't get approved. They are a top company by not making stupid decisions I think all of them may get approval if they produce something that works just below the normal standards. So much crap is already approved with a long list of serious side effects.
Human immunity systems compromised when 5 G towers built. That's why Covid 19 numbers so high.
If that "funding", or what could also be called "earnings", is only slightly more then costs, then why is it so important to get it?
It's not slightly more than cost! It's a 100% markup
$1billion cost. $2billion contract. How is that slightly more?? Please stop.
And here's the argument against legalizing weed...
You need something a lot stronger than weed to have these thoughts.
US made its first trip over the 1,200 death mark since May 29th; and today was the fifth time we’ve gone over 70k cases — four of the five instances occurred in the past 7 days.
Interesting article about the mortality rate based on testing in Indiana. Does similar analysis as numbers.
https://theconversation.com/random-...and-2-8-of-the-state-has-been-infected-138709
https://theconversation.com/random-...and-2-8-of-the-state-has-been-infected-138709
Not sure why you're posting fake news.
ITT I learned
- It's all about the positivity rate not amount of positive tests
- the virus has mutated and is weakening
Thanks, this is almost identical to the analyses I've been doing. Excellent paper and really good data, as this is the closest to a truly random sample of all current and past infections in a state. Also, an infection fatality rate (IFR) of about 0.6% is certainly in the 0.5-1.0% range many epidemiologists have been predicting based on models and what I've been predicting based more on previous IFRs from NY and Spain, who had the earliest state/country antibody testing and had IFRs of 1.1-1.2% (which were likely to drop a bit) and it's in line with the newly revised CDC IFR estimate of 0.65% (post linked below).
The only thing missing from the article and the source paper (2nd link) is recognizing that COVID is likely to infect 55-80% of the population, depending on what the herd immunity level is (and not accounting for cross-reactivity providing large percentages of people with immunity, which could occur - just not known yet), while flu only infects roughly 10% of the US population in a given year (34.3MM out of 330MM, which includes asymptomatics). This is why an IFR of 5-10X that of the flu, coupled with total infections being 5.5-8.0X times that of flu, means that the 34K flu deaths/year could extrapolate to 935K to 2.72MM US deaths, eventually (if no interventions, cures, or vaccines, which obviously is unlikely, but it gives the sense of the risk involved in the worst case).
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...-positive-for-cv19.198591/page-2#post-4615227
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6929e1.htm?s_cid=mm6929e1_w
I also found this section in the source paper to be interesting. Really liked how they conducted the study by looking for both positive viral infections, indicating current infections, and positive antibody results, indicating past infections, whereas most studies have just been antibody tests - these are fine for a population when the total % infected is high (like above 10%), as that will dwarf the usual 1-2% with active infections at any one time, but are critical early in the outbreak, like below. The state numbers actually showed 1.8% with active infections by PCR test and only 1.1% infected in the past by antibody testing.
The results of this large statewide population prevalence study, in a state with a population of 6.73 million,§ indicate that an estimated 187,802 Indiana residents were infected with SARS-CoV-2 from the start of the pandemic through April 29, 2020, a population prevalence of 2.8%. The finding that more persons had samples that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR, indicating an active infection, than for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies suggests that Indiana was in the early stage of the pandemic when the study was conducted. In late April, a total of 17,792 COVID-19 cases had been confirmed using conventional testing strategies (3), and were reported in the state, including 1,099 COVID-19–associated deaths. Based on the estimated total number of infections, the estimated infection-fatality rate was 0.58%, or approximately six times the 0.1% mortality rate for influenza (5). This fatality rate is lower than the infection-fatality rate of 1.3 observed on a cruise ship (2) but consistent with an extrapolated infection-fatality rate in China of 0.66% derived from a nonrandom sample of persons repatriated to their countries from China after the outbreak (6).
Because of the higher prevalence and smaller percentage of asymptomatic persons in the nonrandom sample, those estimates (and estimates from nonrandom samples from other states) might be subject to selection bias and are therefore not as representative as are estimates from random samples. The Indiana estimates of seroprevalence might be more comparable with the seroprevalence from a county-based random sample study in Los Angeles, California, that reported a seroprevalence of 4.7% in mid-April 2020 (2), which is higher than this statewide seropositivity rate.
Not a good day. Highest death total since 6/2, although still a bit less than half the peak deaths on several days in April/May, as per the graphic below, and the 7-day moving average is up about 60% from its low point in early July. Also, three states set record daily highs - Nevada, Oregon, and Tennessee - and FL/TX/AZ/CA were all not far from their peaks. More to come later tonight...
I don't have time for a full analysis of multiple states every night, like last night, but checking in on the national numbers is pretty easy. Below is the Worldometers detailed graphic of deaths, with today's total of 1205 being the highest number since 5/29 and close to 50% of the highest daily peaks in April.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
Below that are the COVID Tracking charts of tests, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, all on 7-day moving averages, showing cases about 2x what they were during the first wave and hospitalizations being about equal to those in the first wave (but haven't peaked yet, while cases have and the accuracy of the hospitalization data is questionable), which is very likely due to a much younger population being infected than in the first wave and is why it's likely that deaths will likely remain significantly less than what we saw in the first wave (coupled with improved treatments/procedures).
https://covidtracking.com/data#chart-annotations
Can't say this is surprising at all. If we didn't have treatment improvement and without those currently hard hit states having the time to take more preventative measures for the elderly the numbers would likely be just as bas as the NE. I think it's pretty clear the virus has not weakened from mutation.I don't have time for a full analysis of multiple states every night, like last night, but checking in on the national numbers is pretty easy. Below is the Worldometers detailed graphic of deaths, with today's total of 1205 being the highest number since 5/29 and close to 50% of the highest daily peaks in April.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
Below that are the COVID Tracking charts of tests, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, all on 7-day moving averages, showing cases about 2x what they were during the first wave and hospitalizations being about equal to those in the first wave (but haven't peaked yet, while cases have and the accuracy of the hospitalization data is questionable), which is very likely due to a much younger population being infected than in the first wave and is why it's likely that deaths will likely remain significantly less than what we saw in the first wave (coupled with improved treatments/procedures).
https://covidtracking.com/data#chart-annotations
Murphy now allowing indoor yoga and indoor martial arts at 25 percent capacity. The randomness continues
Point Pleasant beach now banning partying on the beach, loud music, large coolers due to excessive rowdiness. I guess the plan is move it to the streets, hold up some signs and chant and all is well.
a)We don't know if Pfizer's $1 billion dollar cost includes production of 100 million doses.
b)We don't know Biontech's cut.
I'd certainly like to see the details of the deal, but until then neither of us know.
Data does not tell you who’s getting hospitalized. Most states reporting 95% of hospitalizations are folks with underlying medical issues. Pa. announced the other day 98% of hospitalizations were either people with underlying medical issues and/or over 70. We need to protect these folks but the rest of society should be back to work, school, etc.
We do know that includes the 100 million doses. From July 9th.
In terms of scale, if you got FDA approval in October, what kind of shipments do you anticipate?
We are planning to have up to a hundred million doses for this year. We’ll be fewer in October, a bit more in November, a bit more in December. And then we will have approximately 1.1-1.3 billion doses in 2021
Waiting for the efficacy results which are almost certainly going to be significant and should be out in a few days. More critically, the DSMB peek on the severe/ critical trial will be next week, so getting real close for everyone to see the results and to ask for FDA approval for EUA use . Leronlimab will be one of the drugs in the doctors Arsenal for treating Covid 19 and for saving lives.
Another reason I post less, is the political bullshit that turns me and a lot of people off and the reason the other thread got locked. This thread should be for scientific non political news only . It has been unbearable the last 10 days .
There was no efficacy announced as it is still being analyzed. It was safety reported and the results were outstanding as 51-56 patients had no severe adverse effects , whereas the placebo arm there were 11 out of 28 patients with SAE. Also announced the Sae with the Leronlimab arm were not related to the drug.
The stock not continuing to climb was due to another bogus short piece not based in reality. Everyone is waiting patiently for results. Leronlimab will be ready to go,
Because it normally takes 4-6 weeks to analyze the data that was just unblinded last Friday and the analysis that requires numerous secondary endpoints be reviewed , but will take a week. CEO said there would be a press release Tuesday morning and that is why the safety part was released but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out the efficacy will be outstanding as well. The safety result on the M2M trial is already twice as good as Remdesiver .
Just a little more patient and your surprise will be great news for doctors and patients . Their PR department needs better production as this small 10-20 employee company needs a PR firm to help get the message out clearly. The CEO is not polished but he resurrected this drug and this company and is all in.
what percentage of society belongs in the "needs protection" segment? If we are including obesity, aren't we talked about something like 40%? How do we get back to normal and protect 40% of our population?
I am not advocating for returning to lockdowns, but trying to understand what "normal" should look like for the medium term.
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