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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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what percentage of society belongs in the "needs protection" segment? If we are including obesity, aren't we talked about something like 40%? How do we get back to normal and protect 40% of our population?

I am not advocating for returning to lockdowns, but trying to understand what "normal" should look like for the medium term.

I don't think it's anyone's responsibility to protect others. If you're old or obese or have other risk factors, take responsibility for yourself.
 
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Data does not tell you who’s getting hospitalized. Most states reporting 95% of hospitalizations are folks with underlying medical issues. Pa. announced the other day 98% of hospitalizations were either people with underlying medical issues and/or over 70. We need to protect these folks but the rest of society should be back to work, school, etc.

I think everyone understands that diseases impact the elderly and compromised the most. Problem is, a large percentage of the population falls in those two groups. And as you’re seeing in some of the other states, as much as you try to protect, it starts to leak into those groups.
 
Another doctor today stated using a mask more than 5 hours straight is not healthy. Breathing in your own air is not good.

I've had to work in stadiums that require masks at all times except when eating, and have also flown once (EWR To STL, O'Hare to EWR). The only two times it really bothered me was when I was doing heavy physical labor and sweating - I would recommend disposable ones for such times. And also when I was opening up machines and had to do really specific manual labor, I often found myself pulling the mask down subconsciously when concentrating. It will be interesting how that affects school aged children. All and all, its really not that bad though and people should suck it up.
 
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I've had to work in stadiums that require masks at all times except when eating, and have also flown once (EWR To STL, O'Hare to EWR). The only two times it really bothered me was when I was doing heavy physical labor and sweating - I would recommend disposable ones for such times. And also when I was opening up machines and had to do really specific manual labor, I often found myself pulling the mask down subconsciously when concentrating. It will be interesting how that affects school aged children. All and all, its really not that bad though and people should suck it up.
I think everyone understands that diseases impact the elderly and compromised the most. Problem is, a large percentage of the population falls in those two groups. And as you’re seeing in some of the other states, as much as you try to protect, it starts to leak into those groups.
We need masks everywhere in public when social distancing is not practicable, as Trump and the CDC endorsed back in late Mar/early April, and so many others have pointed out. I see them everywhere I go in NJ (stores, offices, etc.)--including vacation in Cape May a couple weeks ago--and NJ appears to be doing relatively better with the chicomvirus recently. Going by the media stories it sure looks like it's the young adults gatherings where the commonsense mask wearing guidance is being ignored, and not surprisingly correlating with the younger age demo in the recent spate of chicomvirus cases in the country.
 
Heard a doctor on Len and Mark on WOR say that the use of masks will be recommended even after we get through for other contagious diseases

All part of control

Control? Recommendations aren’t mandates. Had this country actually engaged in “tyranny“ and made folks wear masks we could have moved on from covid in 4-8 weeks. Control implies there was a plan. Our country had no plan and still doesn’t in large part.

You are reading too much QAnon.
 
Another doctor today stated using a mask more than 5 hours straight is not healthy. Breathing in your own air is not good.

So wrong and completely ignorant for someone who is supposedly a doctor spouting that nonsense. Surgeons often wear masks for over 5 hours in surgery. Healthcare workers today wear masks for their entire shift. Heck, I flew from DC to Seattle on Monday, wore a mask for six hours and still have an ability to type this post.

I've linked below three of a thousand papers discussing the efficacy of masks in slowing the spread of Covid. There is no economic recovery without the adoption of face coverings by the American people.

If we want to send kids back to school so some can become doctors and scientists, perhaps we should listen to doctors and scientists.


"The available evidence suggests that near-universal adoption of non-medical masks when out in public, in combination with complementary public health measures could successfully reduce effective-R to below 1.0, thereby stopping community spread. Economic analysis suggests that the impact of mask wearing could be thousands of US dollars saved per person per mask (93)."

"We estimated that, irrespective of the assumed value for the incubation period (1 or 2 days), the relative reduction in the daily risk of acquiring a respiratory infection associated with adherent mask use (P2 or surgical) was in the range of 60%–80%."

"The study provides evidence that states in the US mandating use of face masks in public had a greater decline in daily COVID-19 growth rates after issuing these mandates compared to states that did not issue mandates. These effects are observed conditional on other existing social distancing measures and are independent of the CDC recommendation to wear facial covers issued on April 3."



https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/4...s-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2662657/

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818
 
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I don't think it's anyone's responsibility to protect others. If you're old or obese or have other risk factors, take responsibility for yourself.
While in general I mostly agree with you(though isn't the role of gov to protect/enable its citizens), that wasn't really my point.

My point is, what does normal look like when you are missing 40% of your pop?

How do schools go back to in-person classes when 40% of the teachers and staff are missing?
How do businesses return to normal when 40% of their employees can't return to work?

I suspect that normal looks alot different then it did 6 months ago.
 
While in general I mostly agree with you(though isn't the role of gov to protect/enable its citizens), that wasn't really my point.

My point is, what does normal look like when you are missing 40% of your pop?

How do schools go back to in-person classes when 40% of the teachers and staff are missing?
How do businesses return to normal when 40% of their employees can't return to work?

I suspect that normal looks alot different then it did 6 months ago.
Perhaps 60 and older and the obese should be given disability benefits, unemployment, no penalty for early retirements, vested pensions for teachers, quicker eligibility for SS... so they can afford to safely exit the workforce, and we let schools and businesses be populated by teachers, students, merchants, and consumers who are less at risk.
 
I don't think it's anyone's responsibility to protect others. If you're old or obese or have other risk factors, take responsibility for yourself.

Does that mean you don't think people should be wearing masks if they don't want to? Probably the biggest reason to wear a mask is to prevent infected, but asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic people from infecting others, i.e., taking responsibility to protect others.
 
Control? Recommendations aren’t mandates. Had this country actually engaged in “tyranny“ and made folks wear masks we could have moved on from covid in 4-8 weeks. Control implies there was a plan. Our country had no plan and still doesn’t in large part.

You are reading too much QAnon.

This was a so called reputable doctor who is on "your" side
 
Perhaps 60 and older and the obese should be given disability benefits, unemployment, no penalty for early retirements, vested pensions for teachers, quicker eligibility for SS... so they can afford to safely exit the workforce, and we let schools and businesses be populated by teachers, students, merchants, and consumers who are less at risk.


That would be a great stimulus program. I would like to see that get hashed out.
 
Perhaps 60 and older and the obese should be given disability benefits, unemployment, no penalty for early retirements, vested pensions for teachers, quicker eligibility for SS... so they can afford to safely exit the workforce, and we let schools and businesses be populated by teachers, students, merchants, and consumers who are less at risk.
lol. The obese population would go from ~40 to 80% in a matter of weeks.
 
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Another doctor today stated using a mask more than 5 hours straight is not healthy. Breathing in your own air is not good.
So wrong and completely ignorant for someone who is supposedly a doctor spouting that nonsense. Surgeons often wear masks for over 5 hours in surgery. Healthcare workers today wear masks for their entire shift. Heck, I flew from DC to Seattle on Monday, wore a mask for six hours and still have an ability to type this post.

I've linked below three of a thousand papers discussing the efficacy of masks in slowing the spread of Covid. There is no economic recovery without the adoption of face coverings by the American people.

If we want to send kids back to school so some can become doctors and scientists, perhaps we should listen to doctors and scientists.


"The available evidence suggests that near-universal adoption of non-medical masks when out in public, in combination with complementary public health measures could successfully reduce effective-R to below 1.0, thereby stopping community spread. Economic analysis suggests that the impact of mask wearing could be thousands of US dollars saved per person per mask (93)."

"We estimated that, irrespective of the assumed value for the incubation period (1 or 2 days), the relative reduction in the daily risk of acquiring a respiratory infection associated with adherent mask use (P2 or surgical) was in the range of 60%–80%."

"The study provides evidence that states in the US mandating use of face masks in public had a greater decline in daily COVID-19 growth rates after issuing these mandates compared to states that did not issue mandates. These effects are observed conditional on other existing social distancing measures and are independent of the CDC recommendation to wear facial covers issued on April 3."



https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/4...s-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2662657/

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818

Theoretically it's not ignorant at all. When carbon dioxide is exhaled and then is trapped in the mask, there is a good chance you reinhale the CO2 along with less oxygen. This can potentially lead to hypercapnia and will throw off oxygen, CO2 and pH levels in the blood. The resulting effects can be minor (dizziness, shortness of breath, fatigue) or severe (confusion, coma, irregular heartbeats, seizure). When somebody is hyperventilating (think anxiety attack) , they are blowing off too much CO2. The old self remedy standby? Breath into a paperbag and the person breaths back in the CO2 to help restore the balance of the blood gasses. Just because surgeons and air line travelers wear masks for hours on end doesn't mean it isn't damaging or can be damaging in some way...even of it were negligible. That being said, masks are super important in limiting the spread and knocking this disease down as you mentioned.
 
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Theoretically it's not ignorant at all. When carbon dioxide is exhaled and then is trapped in the mask, there is a good chance you reinhale the CO2 along with less oxygen. This can potentially lead to hypercapnia and will throw off oxygen, CO2 and pH levels in the blood. The resulting effects can be minor (dizziness, shortness of breath, fatigue) or severe (confusion, coma, irregular heartbeats, seizure). When somebody is hyperventilating (think anxiety attack) , they are blowing off too much CO2. The old self remedy standby? Breath into a paperbag and the person breaths back in the CO2 to help restore the balance of the blood gasses. Just because surgeons and air line travelers wear masks for hours on end doesn't mean it isn't damaging or can be damaging in some way...even of it were negligible. That being said, masks are super important in limiting the spread and knocking this disease down as you mentioned.
this is part of the personal responsibility...if you cannot physically handle wearing a mask for 5 hours straight, you should avoid any activities that would require that, if possible. if you have to be in a place, schedule some breaks where you can to go outside, catch your breath, etc.
 
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Try something different?

100 days to get to 1M infected
43 days to get from 1M to 2M infected
27 days to get from 2M to 3M infected
16 days to get from 3M to 4M infected

There is no economic recovery unless those numbers change. Period.
Why is that so hard for some people to understand ?
 
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We need masks everywhere in public when social distancing is not practicable, as Trump and the CDC endorsed back in late Mar/early April, and so many others have pointed out. I see them everywhere I go in NJ (stores, offices, etc.)--including vacation in Cape May a couple weeks ago--and NJ appears to be doing relatively better with the chicomvirus recently. Going by the media stories it sure looks like it's the young adults gatherings where the commonsense mask wearing guidance is being ignored, and not surprisingly correlating with the younger age demo in the recent spate of chicomvirus cases in the country.

:Laughing

Ridiculous it took half the population months to figure out masks are a good idea.
 
:Laughing

Ridiculous it took half the population months to figure out masks are a good idea.
You seem to be someone that trusts CNN amirite? #ooops

(CNN)The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is recommending people wear face coverings in public and health officials just reported the most deaths in a single day. President Donald Trump announced the new guidelines Friday, saying it's a voluntary measure and people should not wear surgical or medical masks.-April 3, 2020
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html
 
You seem to be someone that believes CNN amirite? #ooops

(CNN)The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is recommending people wear face coverings in public and health officials just reported the most deaths in a single day. President Donald Trump announced the new guidelines Friday, saying it's a voluntary measure and people should not wear surgical or medical masks.-April 3, 2020
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

Please stop, it’s awkward.
 
Florida posted their highest daily death total today, 173 (previous high was 156 on the 16th of July); rolling 7 day total is now 847, up from 668 a week ago and 244 a month ago. Cases crept over 10k again for the first time in a couple of days.
 
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Does that mean you don't think people should be wearing masks if they don't want to? Probably the biggest reason to wear a mask is to prevent infected, but asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic people from infecting others, i.e., taking responsibility to protect others.
Let me rephrase. It shouldn't be someone's financial responsibility to protect others. Wearing a mask is inconvenient. Hemmoraging thousands of dollars a week for almost five months because I cant have people in the tasting room is an unreasonable burden. At this point, with this level of spread and hospitalizations it is completely unreasonable for any business to have such restrictions, for the sake of the vulnerable.
 
Perhaps 60 and older and the obese should be given disability benefits, unemployment, no penalty for early retirements, vested pensions for teachers, quicker eligibility for SS... so they can afford to safely exit the workforce, and we let schools and businesses be populated by teachers, students, merchants, and consumers who are less at risk.
Certainly that is one approach, and at the surface seems "reasonable". Certainly the part about 60 and older(you can't control your age) would seem to be not that controversial

But I see problems below the surface:
1. There likely aren't enough trained teachers, doctors, accountants, etc to immediately make up for the missing 40%. How long would it take to have enough replacements?
2. There likely will be and likely should be push-back on benefits paid to those at risk who are at risk arguably due to their own actions. example, lets just say smokers are considered high risk, should the rest of us bank-roll people who have chosen to smoke or perhaps chosen to continue to smoke? Same argument for obesity
3. Setting all that aside, can 60% of the pop afford to carry the other 40%?
 
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POTUS said this week “We are in the process of developing a strategy that's going to be very, very powerful.”

Whatever plan we had / have clearly wasn’t sufficient for the crisis at hand.
I didn't see this week's pressers or read transcripts verbatim, but I believe the new strategy is in regard to the new spikes around the country, like surging national resources to contain the local or regional flare-ups. As the battle changes on the ground so does the battle plan.

I'm not going to re-type posts from months back that are easy to search, but to briefly cite some parts of the fed strategy to-date: i) the CDC was in constant contact with states/locales in Jan-Feb planning, ii) the WH task force led by VP Pence has been working with states and locales in equipment logistics, iii) US Navy hospital ships and other emergency hospital capabilities (ie Javitts) were provided quickly to crisis areas, iv) building-out the testing capacity, v) Operation Warp Speed is moving vaccine and therapeutic discoveries and development faster than ever before..

I mean what would you suggest other than more and stricter lockdowns that devastate the economy and are pushing overdose and other social problems to new records?
 
Certainly that is one approach, and at the surface seems "reasonable". Certainly the part about 60 and older(you can't control your age) would seem to be not that controversial

But I see problems below the surface:
1. There likely aren't enough trained teachers, doctors, accountants, etc to immediately make up for the missing 40%. How long would it take to have enough replacements?
2. There likely will be and likely should be push-back on benefits paid to those at risk who are at risk arguably due to their own actions. example, lets just say smokers are considered high risk, should the rest of us bank-roll people who have chosen to smoke or perhaps chosen to continue to smoke? Same argument for obesity
3. Setting all that aside, can 60% of the pop afford to carry the other 40%?

IS 40% of the workforce over 60 years old? As for at-risk by way of personal choices, I think it might be +ROI to pay them to stay home rather than keep the economy running on stimulus checks extended benefit offers. I see a new article about a business closing every day, despite the existing stimulus efforts. The latest was Shelton Lanes the bowling alley in New Brunswick. Sooner or later small business will collapse from the restrictions, and then what?
 
344 new positives and 23 new reported deaths. Seems like this is just where it'll be for a while. It's the kindve numbers we've had for a month.
 
Last night MSNBC showed a graph of infection/mortality rates for the whole country and the graph appears to have flattened out.

Then they took out NJ/NY/Ct and the chart went directly up.

Guess which graph the Trump administration relied on?
LOL. What would the overall per capita US case counts and mortality rates look like if NY/NJ/CT were excluded--closer to Germany perhaps? C'mon-the chicomvirus is spreading across the country unevenly. More poor and misleading "reporting" from MSNBC.
 
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We do know that includes the 100 million doses. From July 9th.
In terms of scale, if you got FDA approval in October, what kind of shipments do you anticipate?
We are planning to have up to a hundred million doses for this year. We’ll be fewer in October, a bit more in November, a bit more in December. And then we will have approximately 1.1-1.3 billion doses in 2021
Here is a larger segment of that interview:

You’ve invested more than $1 billion in this. What if the FDA rejects the vaccine?
We will just have to write it off and call it a day. We will throw it away. It’s only money we’re going to lose.

In terms of scale, if you got FDA approval in October, what kind of shipments do you anticipate?
We are planning to have up to a hundred million doses for this year. We’ll be fewer in October, a bit more in November, a bit more in December. And then we will have approximately 1.1-1.3 billion doses in 2021.


So I don't know from that exchange if that $1 billion includes October. If we get real strict on the reading they talk about the $1billion investment in the past tense, but that could be overly strict reading of it.

And then there is also this:

"Pfizer will also be on the hook to pay BioNTech an additional $563 million if everything goes according to plan."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathan...-deliver-a-vaccine-by-this-fall/#27267073382e

Now add all this together and maybe Pfizer's "nominal" profit is $100 million. I think I'd agree that even a mere 5% of the total deal still sounds like a lot.
 
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