Manhattan will not be a shell of itself. People live there for a ton of reasons not related to being close to the office. More people are going to live there due to corporate space being converting to residential.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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Manhattan will not be a shell of itself. People live there for a ton of reasons not related to being close to the office. More people are going to live there due to corporate space being converting to residential.
Yes it is, it's not going to be the thriving hub it once was, there is a reason real estate in NJ is shooting through the roof.
Cases are not up the last five weeks. The 7 day moving average has been between 200 and 400 since June 12th, the last day it was over 400. It is currently at 368. In addition, testing has gone from only in the hospital at the beginning, to only symptomatic, to anyone with an appointment, to freely available. We're finding positives in people who are less affected, or are asymptomatic but need to be tested to return to work or to be discharged from the hospital. 400 positives a day was more meaningful in early June than it is now on the cusp of August. My opinion.
I could see that. With significantly less vehicle traffic it might really improve the quality of life
Who, in this environment, would subject themselves to being trapped in an overpriced box? You're looking at the very real possibility of 50-80% of walkable attractions, restaurants, and bars permanently closing over the next 2-3 years.
Are you suggesting I’m apologizing for China / Mongolia’s role in a 14th century pandemic?
Manhattan might actually get good again. It was overrun by corporate space and the culture took a bit of a hit. Some office space will be converted to residential, hospitality and places of the arts.
Brooklyn is the hub these days, and that’s not changing anytime soon.
I think a death knell is unlikely for big cities, and a period of change is more probable. There will be closures, and time will have to pass before we see bars / restaurants / entertainment scaled up again.
Reluctance to use mass transit may persist for a time. There will be financial holes for strained city financial planners to overcome.
That said, urban density has many social and economic advantages that are likely to continue to drive urban living over the long haul.
I wouldn’t even bet on a long-term secular migration from north to south; I think it is likely to be a near-term pressure for northern cities. Climate change complications and costs, fresh water scarcity, and infrastructure constraints are some of the looming headwinds for some of the rapidly growing areas that are projected to ultimately reverse the current migration patterns
I have attempted several time to access the links you posted . Are these working links? We’ll see after the November election whether the dire predictors come true . If there is even a minutiae of good news on a successful vaccine (or 2 ) that changes futures to a great degree. My concerns are for those younger families , their children and the homeless , poor . If we think drug , alcohol or suicides is elevated wait until a complete financial collapse . You see how people reacted to 62 being laid off at Rutgers Health. That will pale in comparison or so it would seem. The age groups between 25-45 will lose their minds. The pre retirees say ages 55-67 will be working ( if they can) until 75-80. So who do we blame then? ... a new man or the old man In charge. Asking for a friend.
It will when literally every single live music venue and arts space permanently closes. These type of spots run on a knife's edge to stay afloat even in the best of times.
And it really pains me to say this as I love Brooklyn, the music scene there is tremendous.
You have to be the responsible one (tom1944 ) you are old as dirt ... just kidding.
Sorry, I wasn't trying to paint a permanent picture of NYC, everything in life comes in cycles, my point it's going to be a while before NYC recovers from both effects of the virus and rioters (not to be confused with genuine well meaning protesters).
I have so many friends who either worked or lived in the city (and loved it) who really have no desire to go back any time soon.
highly unlikely every venue will close permanently or not be replaced with a new venue when things open back up.
Oh it’s going to evolve and not in a good way but still this board has a few posters who say NYC will be back. Found this very troubling about the 9/11 role call being stopped by the city. If you are having the MTV awards ( even virtually) then once again people need their day ( families of victims) to read out the names. We have many Rutgers grads who died that day so we better voice our outrage about this anticipated slight .
Money drives all cities and change as well, what you describe is indeed possible, but it has to be done correctly and smartly and right now under NYC's leadership I don't see that happening, if it was Bloomberg or Rudy in charge, I would give this a shot, but the clown (and I think everyone can agree on the current mayor being one) in charge right now? I wouldn't hold my breath.
1300-1350 it was still from China ... Google is God... bubonic plague which today would not be a worry... estimates of deaths? 75-200 million... it sounded like a defense of where this came from... if you didn’t mean it why did you emphasize “ it was from Mongolia. “ ... let’s just say out of East Asia.
In the long run.. the very long run.. I think freshwater is everything. We really could use a national pipeline system to move water from region to region as we often have droughts one place and floods in another. Costs, of course, would be ridiculous.. but we have had times where we thought about investing in infrastructure.. we could couple an effort like that alongside highspeed rail, new electric distribution system, green energy.. etc. We could even build new towns along the way to accommodate social distancing for the long-haul.
Ahhh the economy.. I am quite surprised it is not worse than it is already. Guess people and the guvhmint bin doin okay so fars. Buy Murphy wants to borrow $9.9B.. and he is likely not an exception.. it is all troubling. We really need a return to the old normal.. 2X or even 3X the usual flu deaths doesn't seem like its worth total destruction of the economy to avoid. But maybe it is. Maybe if we went to the old normal it would be 10X the usual annual flu deaths. I don't know.
NYC really hasn’t gone anywhere to begin with. The restaurants and bars are buzzing outside. Only thing that is really happening is the old people who should have moved to the burbs years ago are finally moving out and the younger crowd is taking advantage of slightly lower rent prices.
Winter is coming fast and that will change outdoor dining as far as I can tell... it is only the start of who will be moving out to suburbia especially if office jobs disappear as the predictors claim. The WFH crowd will not stay and pay astronomical rents since salaries and benefits are likely to wither and die . Those 3-4 k per month or more will be empty flats ... the economic divide will be worse and the bottom groups will still be ...”at the bottom” .
Rent Prices have dropped by about 20% in the last few months, from what I have seen.
Rutgers Al was unable get a concession from his landlord, so there's that.
If Wall Street starts moving, people will follow:
Wall Street Firms Consider Moving Jobs from NYC, Study Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ms-consider-moving-jobs-out-of-nyc-study-says
I have been responsible from birth. It is just my nature. I also never let change or circumstances negatively impact me. I always had an attitude of how do I make that work for me.
And adding to this, the recent "hot spots" (TX,FL,AZ ) with a combined population of 58 Million ( vs 28M for NY/NJ) have a total death count of 14K... below all those countries and well below NY/NJ. Obviously we will be seeing increased deaths in the coming weeks in those states due to the amount already infected, but hoping it stays well below the disastrous numbers of NY/NJ. Case counts have been well below NJ/NY, especially in terms of per capita, so odds are the deaths will remain below as well..
What, for the next 6 months? Don’t see the young crowd racing for the burbs now or after this is over.
20%.....no chance. Easy thing to Google though. 6.6% down isn’t bad, although Brooklyn is still up....even in a pandemic.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/noahki...w-covid-19-is-affecting-new-york-rent-prices/
I think it’ll be a mix. Maybe going in 1-2 times a week or some sort of weekly rotation that will allow people to have some in person meetings, but still allow companies to downsize.
I know the NJ COVID dashboard has the Rt number mentioned above (1.09).... this web site https://rt.live/ must calculate the Rt a little differently. Has NJ Rt currently at 1.0 Good news is TX, FL, AZ are all in the "green" and below 1.... all trending toward a reduction in transmission. Texas is actually the best in the country right now at a Rt of 0.92
Cases up, hospitalizations down, deaths down in NJ. Either more young’s folks not having any issues or Covid is less severe now??
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