How much does the Rider game cancellation hurt current our Tournament prospects?

[BeantownKnight]

I know that the 3 OOC losses suffered earlier this year definitely has many fans down on our Tournament prospects (even though our current in-conference streak looks good). So, it makes me wonder, if the Rider game could've been postponed and played at some other time this season (or, perhaps, already played), how much could that have helped our current Tournament outlook? This, of course, assumes that RU would win the game. If we had - we'd currently be sitting at 10-5 (and with a 3-1 in-conference record). Just one game. Will not having played the Rider game have that great an impact on our post-season chances?

 

[fluoxetine]

It shouldn't make much difference but if we find ourselves squarely on the bubble then you never know.

 

[SirPerceval]

I don't think another Q4 win is going to make much of a difference. RU has a reasonable chance of getting in if they finish 11-9 in conference (putting us probably in 6th or 7th and win two in the conference tournament - finishing 19-13. That means 8-8 the rest of the way. I think the committee would be very capable of accepting those 3 early losses as an anomaly after a very good finish in conference. i.e. why punish a team for losing to Lafayette in game 5 when they go on to win 13 Big Ten games. I mean, which fact is the more important indicator of their ability.

 

[fluoxetine]

I don't think another Q4 win is going to make much of a difference. RU has a reasonable chance of getting in if they finish 11-9 in conference (putting us probably in 6th or 7th and win two in the conference tournament - finishing 19-13. That means 8-8 the rest of the way. I think the committee would be very capable of accepting those 3 early losses as an anomaly after a very good finish in conference. i.e. why punish a team for losing to Lafayette in game 5 when they go on to win 13 Big Ten .

Because the whole season counts. The Lafayette game counts just as much as any Big Ten game.

 

[fluoxetine]

Also your math doesn't work. If we go 11-9 in the Big Ten and 2-1 in the Big Ten Tournament we would be 19-14 not 19-13. 19-14 is very dangerous territory. We need 20-12 at a minimum to feel at all safe IMO.

 

[bac2therac]

I don't think another Q4 win is going to make much of a difference. RU has a reasonable chance of getting in if they finish 11-9 in conference (putting us probably in 6th or 7th and win two in the conference tournament - finishing 19-13. That means 8-8 the rest of the way. I think the committee would be very capable of accepting those 3 early losses as an anomaly after a very good finish in conference. i.e. why punish a team for losing to Lafayette in game 5 when they go on to win 13 Big Ten games. I mean, which fact is the more important indicator of their ability.

Because they also lost to De Paul and UMass on the road. 3 bad losses...yes De Paul not totally awful but UMass is. Thats a horrible OOC performance

 

[bac2therac]

Also your math doesn't work. If we go 11-9 in the Big Ten and 2-1 in the Big Ten Tournament we would be 19-14 not 19-13. 19-14 is very dangerous territory. We need 20-12 at a minimum to feel at all safe IMO.

I think 20 locks us in.. i think 12-8 in big 10 plus a win in big 10 tournament for 19-13 more than likely gets us in but no sure thing

 

[Scarlet Shack]

I think 20 locks us in.. i think 12-8 in big 10 plus a win in big 10 tournament for 19-13 more than likely gets us in but no sure thing

This ...

 

[RUEd]

I think 20 locks us in.. i think 12-8 in big 10 plus a win in big 10 tournament for 19-13 more than likely gets us in but no sure thing

We’ll Bac, your the resident expert on the tourney. I hope we’ll be tuning in to your bracket picks and not an afterthought like I felt two weeks ago

 

[hbr1103]

Also your math doesn't work. If we go 11-9 in the Big Ten and 2-1 in the Big Ten Tournament we would be 19-14 not 19-13. 19-14 is very dangerous territory. We need 20-12 at a minimum to feel at all safe IMO.

Wrong 4 games over we are a lock

 

[fluoxetine]

Wrong 4 games over we are a lock

I admire your confidence but if you think we are getting in at 18-14 you have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[SirPerceval]

Because the whole season counts. The Lafayette game counts just as much as any Big Ten game.

Except the tournament is at the end of the season and performance going into the tournament can be and usually is weighted more.

 

[fluoxetine]

Except the tournament is at the end of the season and performance going into the tournament can be and usually is weighted more.

No it isn't.

 

[SirPerceval]

Also your math doesn't work. If we go 11-9 in the Big Ten and 2-1 in the Big Ten Tournament we would be 19-14 not 19-13. 19-14 is very dangerous territory. We need 20-12 at a minimum to feel at all safe IMO.

Yeah I forgot the last loss in the tournament - I didn't mean to say I felt safe at 19-13 or 19-14 but I think we have a reasonable shot.

 

[fluoxetine]

Yeah I forgot the last loss in the tournament - I didn't mean to say I felt safe at 19-13 or 19-14 but I think we have a reasonable shot.

If I had to guess, and obviously it's only a guess, I would say that 19-13 is good but 19-14 is not.

 

[knight82]

I have a feeling that this year's tournament hopes rely on a run in the Big Ten Tournament

 

[SirPerceval]

No it isn't.

Obviously not in the computer models but when the committee comes down to looking at bubble teams it absolutely is.

 

[fluoxetine]

Obviously not in the computer models but when the committee comes down to looking at bubble teams it absolutely is.

Cue @bac2therac posting the official selection criteria.

 

[RUBOB72]

If Hobbs is listening then rescheduling this game should be an important goal. I’m sure Rider , a future opponent , would like to play the game as well in a safe environment of course . There has to be a few potential open dates conducive to both teams and Steve Pikiell won’t complain that is for certain.

 

[ru66]

In the end it depends on how every college team winds up--talk is cheap at this time and meaningless.

 

[Miggins]

When was the last time a 19 win B10 team did not make the tourney?

 

[robjknight]

As Ron Harper said ‘ we can’t change the past, need to look forward’. Let’s keep winning and it will take care of itself.

 

[RUChoppin]

Because they also lost to De Paul and UMass on the road. 3 bad losses...yes De Paul not totally awful but UMass is. Thats a horrible OOC performance

DePaul and UMass may both end up being Q2 losses. Lafayette's the real anchor around our neck.

Right now UMass is 147 in kenpom and 153 in Sagarin. Their next 4 game stretch is really rough, though.

 

[RUBOB72]

In the end it depends on how every college team winds up--talk is cheap at this time and meaningless.

Yeah if I’m Rider I probably would decline the game . What if we gave them a monetary incentive to play ? Lol

 

[fluoxetine]

When was the last time a 19 win B10 team did not make the tourney?

Bear in mind 2021 had reduced schedules and 2020 had no field selected.

In 2018 Penn St. 21-13, no tournament. Nebraska 22-10, no tournament. Maryland 19-13, no tournament.

 

[bitnez]

It’s all speculative but we are at least in play for creating what will be “the” story of the NCAA selections. Our OOC performances we’re really bad, but if we’re in play for a selection it means we had a really good B1G season that would normally guarantee a spot.

 

[Scangg]

DePaul and UMass may both end up being Q2 losses. Lafayette's the real anchor around our neck.

Right now UMass is 147 in kenpom and 153 in Sagarin. Their next 4 game stretch is really rough, though.

What are the chances they end up as Q2 losses? That would be huge. Gotta start following their games. We are all UMass and DePaul fans now too

 

[bitnez]

Bear in mind 2021 had reduced schedules and 2020 had no field selected.

In 2018 Penn St. 21-13, no tournament. Nebraska 22-10, no tournament. Maryland 19-13, no tournament.

Good finds - I agree that it’s not about number of wins. It’s really how we’re perceived. And, preseason the basketball world thought we were going to be really good. So, If we play good ball for the rest of the way we could get a pass because at least they were all early.

 

[bac2therac]

Wrong 4 games over we are a lock

18-14 is less than 50/50 to get in

 

[bac2therac]

DePaul and UMass may both end up being Q2 losses. Lafayette's the real anchor around our neck.

Right now UMass is 147 in kenpom and 153 in Sagarin. Their next 4 game stretch is really rough, though.

They might be q2 in the end but it will still be looked at as a bad loss and it is

 

[RUBOB72]

Wishful thinking that we get in at 18-14 … 19-13 possible bubble… but need 20 to really have chance . Ron Harper clarified the teams attitude . RU can’t change the past but it can control the future going forward. Would love two of those losses back and that game against Rider. All said just win the next one

 

[RUBOB72]

Wishful thinking that we get in at 18-14 … 19-13 possible bubble… but need 20 to really have chance . Ron Harper clarified the teams attitude . RU can’t change the past but it can control the future going forward. Would love two of those losses back and that game against Rider. All said just win the next one

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

DePaul and UMass may both end up being Q2 losses. Lafayette's the real anchor around our neck.

Right now UMass is 147 in kenpom and 153 in Sagarin. Their next 4 game stretch is really rough, though.

Ughhhh. IMHO no way we lose the Lafayette game if Geo is not out because of his injury in 2nd half, or if Jalen Miller is hounding their guards down the stretch. I feel the same way about Miller being out there vs UMass. I know, ifs and buts...but, yeh.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

I admire your confidence but if you think we are getting in at 18-14 you have no idea what you're talking about.

Four games over in BE games.
L

If Hobbs is listening then rescheduling this game should be an important goal. I’m sure Rider , a future opponent , would like to play the game as well in a safe environment of course . There has to be a few potential open dates conducive to both teams and Steve Pikiell won’t complain that is for certain.

Move it to MSG for a neutral court opportunity.

 

[kcg88]

It won't be the difference between us making it and not.

 

[BigEastPhil]

Let the band play CC Rider. Got my Rider refund yesterday unexpectedly very quickly.

 

[JavaDunk18]

The way they are playing, it is not unreasonable to expect 13 or 14 wins in league, going into the BTT.. committee will be looking very carefully at road results (which is why it's is essential to get at least one of the next 2 games)..
The big wins should carry more weight than early season bad losses..

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

Let the band play CC Rider. Got my Rider refund yesterday unexpectedly very quickly.

I guess it's now official cancelled? I thought still a chance to make up?
Two other considerations.. one, under the current status you can't assume every B1G gets played. And.. I know I'll get shot down.. but in a tie breaker.. I would think last year's NCAA performance would matter..even if .ooo1%.
Humans make the choice not 100% computer.

 

[RUChoppin]

They might be q2 in the end but it will still be looked at as a bad loss and it is

If DePaul finishes in the 90-100 range, that's not a terrible loss on the road. I don't really see UMass coming in at higher than 140 or so, though.

More realistically, though, DePaul will be like 120-140 and UMass will be 150-170

 

[Caliknight]

I don't think another Q4 win is going to make much of a difference. RU has a reasonable chance of getting in if they finish 11-9 in conference (putting us probably in 6th or 7th and win two in the conference tournament - finishing 19-13. That means 8-8 the rest of the way. I think the committee would be very capable of accepting those 3 early losses as an anomaly after a very good finish in conference. i.e. why punish a team for losing to Lafayette in game 5 when they go on to win 13 Big Ten games. I mean, which fact is the more important indicator of their ability.

11-9 we are a stone cold lock to get in.