No shot. That'd be 17-13 with a Q4 loss and no meaningful OOC wins. NIT resume.
How much does the Rider game cancellation hurt current our Tournament prospects?
- Thread starter BeantownKnight
- Start date
This is just 100% completely false.
EDIT: Unless you mean stone cold lock for the NIT.
14 wins might win the BigTen regular season. Despite Purdue oozing offensive talent and having good interior D, Purdue can’t guard good shooting guards. Davis from Wisconsin dropped 37 on the Boilers.
Jalen Pickett of PSU just dropped 21 (with 10 assists) on ‘em.
Rider win, Q4 7-1, doesn't effect our chances of getting in, unless we lose it.
Net #116, Q1/2 3-3, a good record with 13 Q1/2 games left
(9-5) Q1 1-2 Q2 2-1 Q3 0-1 {Q4 6-1}
11 Q1 left, 2 Q2 left , 3 Q3 left, no Q4
Q4 is locked, no wins or losses are changing
Q3 loss is @ UMass #171, staying unless they fall below 240, Q4 unlikely
Q2.loss is @ Depaul #103, below 135, it becomes a Q3, no chance of Q4.
Q2 wins in Clemson #55, Michigan #52, either fall below #75, Q3
Q1 losses @ Illinois #10, @SHU #25 are staying Q1 loss, neither fall below 75
Q1 win Purdue #9, Q2 below 30
Next 7, Q2 @ PSU #88, Q2 @ Maryland #112(Q3 below #135), Q1 Iowa #28(Q2 below #30), Q1 @ Minnesota #56(Q2 below #75), Q3 Vs Maryland #112, Q3 @ Nebraska #219(Q4 below #240), Q1 @ Northwestern #69(Q2 below #75)
We need to attack the next 7, go at least 5-2 to have any chance, and not lose at Nebraska.
Next 6 all Q1, Q1 vs MSU #14, Q1 Vs OSU #26(Q2 below #30), Q1 @ Wisconsin #24, Q1 Vs Illinois #10, Q1 @ Purdue #9, Q1 @ Michigan #52(Q2 below #75)
I think the goal would be to win at least 2 of these 6.
Last 3, Vs Wisconsin #24(Q2 below #30), Q1 @ Indiana #36, Q3 vs PSU #88
We can finish the.season strong winning these last 3 games into the B1G conference tournament, especially winning @.Indiana, a team we own.
That would give us the best chance of getting into the NCAA tournament this year, and hopefully not many Q1s or Q2s drop to Q2s or Q3s.
Net #116, Q1/2 3-3, a good record with 13 Q1/2 games left
(9-5) Q1 1-2 Q2 2-1 Q3 0-1 {Q4 6-1}
11 Q1 left, 2 Q2 left , 3 Q3 left, no Q4
Q4 is locked, no wins or losses are changing
Q3 loss is @ UMass #171, staying unless they fall below 240, Q4 unlikely
Q2.loss is @ Depaul #103, below 135, it becomes a Q3, no chance of Q4.
Q2 wins in Clemson #55, Michigan #52, either fall below #75, Q3
Q1 losses @ Illinois #10, @SHU #25 are staying Q1 loss, neither fall below 75
Q1 win Purdue #9, Q2 below 30
Next 7, Q2 @ PSU #88, Q2 @ Maryland #112(Q3 below #135), Q1 Iowa #28(Q2 below #30), Q1 @ Minnesota #56(Q2 below #75), Q3 Vs Maryland #112, Q3 @ Nebraska #219(Q4 below #240), Q1 @ Northwestern #69(Q2 below #75)
We need to attack the next 7, go at least 5-2 to have any chance, and not lose at Nebraska.
Next 6 all Q1, Q1 vs MSU #14, Q1 Vs OSU #26(Q2 below #30), Q1 @ Wisconsin #24, Q1 Vs Illinois #10, Q1 @ Purdue #9, Q1 @ Michigan #52(Q2 below #75)
I think the goal would be to win at least 2 of these 6.
Last 3, Vs Wisconsin #24(Q2 below #30), Q1 @ Indiana #36, Q3 vs PSU #88
We can finish the.season strong winning these last 3 games into the B1G conference tournament, especially winning @.Indiana, a team we own.
That would give us the best chance of getting into the NCAA tournament this year, and hopefully not many Q1s or Q2s drop to Q2s or Q3s.
The record itself feels like the least of our challenges. Maybe down the road we get some help from Clemson and Michigan but right now neither are tourney teams. So we have one win over a sure field team. Teams like Iowa and Minnesota could make the field, but I’m not counting on that either. We can’t have that Lafayette loss and get by with only 2-3 wins over solid NCAA teams.
It seems to me that we have 7 games remaining against very likely tourney teams. Go 3-4 in those games and we’re in good shape as long as we also win at least 2 road games. Go 1-6 and I’m honestly not sure how much it matters if we win all the other games if the league becomes top heavy and we beat up on the bottom half teams. 2 wins vs. solid at large teams won’t be a good look for a 12 loss team with the bad losses we have.
Also - completely separate from this metric the Palm 2019 special will hold true for sure - and this time we’ll need at least 2 road wins. Just beating Nebraska and NW on the road likely won’t cut it either.
It seems to me that we have 7 games remaining against very likely tourney teams. Go 3-4 in those games and we’re in good shape as long as we also win at least 2 road games. Go 1-6 and I’m honestly not sure how much it matters if we win all the other games if the league becomes top heavy and we beat up on the bottom half teams. 2 wins vs. solid at large teams won’t be a good look for a 12 loss team with the bad losses we have.
Also - completely separate from this metric the Palm 2019 special will hold true for sure - and this time we’ll need at least 2 road wins. Just beating Nebraska and NW on the road likely won’t cut it either.
No..that puts us at 17-13..a firstvtound big 10 tourney loss puts us at 17-14 which will not get us in
I think we’d need more than a game or two in the BIG tourney. Our NET is a putrid 116 right now and unfortunately the road to 11-9 would either a) not include enough Q1 and Q2 wins or b) involve some additional Q3 losses. PSU is 68 now but they will likely be under 75 for our home game. Maryland is 112 - they could fall to 135 easily - especially if we sweep them. And we have to go to Nebraska. 4-0 in these could hypothetically all map to Q3. We need more than 7 total Q1 and 2 wins in my opinion. Also - who knows if Clemson even stays in Q2?
Stick to lacrosse. That's simply not accurate.
agree....but to me its way too early to even get into this more than just glossing over the schedule. Need to find out the landscape. Last year covid cancellations allowed for records like 14-11 to get consideration. Need to see if covid has any effect, early indications are it will not have a huge effect on schools playing a reduced schedule. Also, the Big 10 does not appear as strong on the surface resume wise as other years. Need to see if there is seperation between Big 10 schools at the top and at the bottom and what the middle looks like. Indiana, Rutgers, Minnesota could all have similar type resumes.
The Lafayette loss is still the killer here. The other 2 can be overlooked. Geo played much of that Lafayette game and I dont think the selection committee is going to look at that game and say well Geo was out they would have won. It does not matter who is on the team, a NCAA team beats a garbage team like Lafayette, there is no way to excuse this loss. The hope is that RU does enough good in the Big 10 and wins some games on the road to overcome its 0-3 road mark OOC and that Clemson is its best non conference win which isnt all that impressive. Do that and thats when the committee may look at the Geo injury and excuse the loss to Umass
Perhaps we all should focus like Ron Harper Jr. “ the past is the past” . Look ahead to the next game and win.
couple of red flags too...RU's non conference sos is a woeful 297
in their next 6 games, just 2 Q1 opportunities and they may not even be Q1 by the time we play them...imperative to beat Iowa at home and that could be a Q2 game quite easily as well as Minnesota
in the last 10 games, 9 of them are Q1 games, the toughest of the tough, might be the toughest last 10 game stretch in all of college basketball
in their next 6 games, just 2 Q1 opportunities and they may not even be Q1 by the time we play them...imperative to beat Iowa at home and that could be a Q2 game quite easily as well as Minnesota
in the last 10 games, 9 of them are Q1 games, the toughest of the tough, might be the toughest last 10 game stretch in all of college basketball
The three biggest negatives on the resume, in order, are 2pt loss Lafayette(Line -19.5)= -21.5, 35 point loss to Illinois(Line +9.5)= -25.5 and 3 pt OT win Lehigh(Line -20)= -17. Losses at DePaul(-2.5) and at UMass(-2) are 4th and 5th but not as bad as some think. Purdue win makes up for 1 of the mistakes, but we are 13th out of 14th in the B1G, at 5.5, in a metric called SRS, combines Schedule of Strength and point differential. It is the main reason why we are rated so low in the NET, 13th out of 14th. Any road wins and beating Q1s at home will neutralize the rest of the early mistakes.
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