Weather reports for Carriacou Island now? LOL. Full WeatherAl mode already.
OT: 2024 Atlantic Basin Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC/Others) Predicting Extremely Active Season...Debby Takes Aim at FL/GA/SC
- Thread starter RU848789
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Beryl just a few hours away from causing likely major to catastrophic damage to Jamaica from winds, surge and rain (especially in the mountains where flooding/mudslides are likely), as the storm will either strike the southern coast of the island as a Cat 4 hurricane (likely weakening to 130-140 mph from the current 145 mph) or come very close to it with the difference being small, really, especially with the northern, stronger side of the storm lashing Jamaica. The only "good" thing is that Beryl is moving quickly (~20 mph), so the worst conditions will only last 6-12 hours vs. 18-24 hours with slow moving storms.
Beryl will likely miss the Cayman Islands, but still bring hurricane conditions to them to early on Thursday and then will strike the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Friday as a likely Cat 2 hurricane (90-100 mph). After emerging into the Bay of Campeche (GOM), Beryl will then turn NW and likely make a final landfall in northern Mexico (small chance of that being far south Texas) as a minimal Cat 1 hurricane late Sunday night, although forecasts 5 days out, especially for intensity are more prone to error.
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-07-02-hurricane-beryl-jamaica-cayman-islands
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.../graphics_at2.../024812.shtml...
Beryl will likely miss the Cayman Islands, but still bring hurricane conditions to them to early on Thursday and then will strike the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Friday as a likely Cat 2 hurricane (90-100 mph). After emerging into the Bay of Campeche (GOM), Beryl will then turn NW and likely make a final landfall in northern Mexico (small chance of that being far south Texas) as a minimal Cat 1 hurricane late Sunday night, although forecasts 5 days out, especially for intensity are more prone to error.
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-07-02-hurricane-beryl-jamaica-cayman-islands
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.../graphics_at2.../024812.shtml...
Sadly, 7 are now known dead from Beryl and damage was catastrophic on several of the Windward Islands.
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...pdates-for-windward-leeward-islands-caribbean
Your no better you post 30 times a day on a financial thread and act like your rolling in dough. Pal if you got the time to be doing that while at work you can’t be that important at “work”. In the real world the ballers are busy as heck and do not have the time to be posting all day.
After hammering the Windward Islands, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, Beryl just make landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula near Tulum as a strong Cat 2 storm with 110 mph winds, as Beryl weakened over the last 2 days, as expected, due to increased wind shear and some dry air entrainment. Beryl's forecast track has shifted significantly northward and the storm is now forecast to make landfall as a Cat 1 hurricane with ~85 mph winds early on Monday in the Brownsville, Texas area right near the border with Mexico.
The track and intensity forecasts still have some significant uncertainty attached to them, given the difficulty forecasting how much weakening we'll see as Beryl crosses the Yucatan, as well as how much strengthening is likely as Beryl traverses some very warm waters in the SW Gulf of Mexico.
Also, as one can see by the forecast map, slight changes in the track towards the NE could bring much of the Texas coast into play, given the angle of approach of the storm, so places like Corpus Christi and Houston need to be on alert, i.e., a 100 mph hurricane striking Houston isn't out of the question and neither is another landfall in Mexico. In fact, the Euro and GFS models show a solution closer to a Corpus Christi landfall vs. the hurricane models and the NHC forecast of a Brownsville landfall. One thing that's fairly certain is that flooding rains are likely in South and Central Texas with 4-8" of rain forecast right now.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 20.1N 86.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.7N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 21.7N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 06/1800Z 22.9N 93.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 23.8N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 24.7N 96.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 26.0N 97.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 28.0N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 30.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...4-07-05-hurricane-beryl-forecast-mexico-texas
The track and intensity forecasts still have some significant uncertainty attached to them, given the difficulty forecasting how much weakening we'll see as Beryl crosses the Yucatan, as well as how much strengthening is likely as Beryl traverses some very warm waters in the SW Gulf of Mexico.
Also, as one can see by the forecast map, slight changes in the track towards the NE could bring much of the Texas coast into play, given the angle of approach of the storm, so places like Corpus Christi and Houston need to be on alert, i.e., a 100 mph hurricane striking Houston isn't out of the question and neither is another landfall in Mexico. In fact, the Euro and GFS models show a solution closer to a Corpus Christi landfall vs. the hurricane models and the NHC forecast of a Brownsville landfall. One thing that's fairly certain is that flooding rains are likely in South and Central Texas with 4-8" of rain forecast right now.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 20.1N 86.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.7N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 21.7N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 06/1800Z 22.9N 93.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 23.8N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 24.7N 96.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 26.0N 97.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 28.0N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 30.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...4-07-05-hurricane-beryl-forecast-mexico-texas
After hammering the Windward Islands, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, Beryl just make landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula near Tulum as a strong Cat 2 storm with 110 mph winds, as Beryl weakened over the last 2 days, as expected, due to increased wind shear and some dry air entrainment. Beryl's forecast track has shifted significantly northward and the storm is now forecast to make landfall as a Cat 1 hurricane with ~85 mph winds early on Monday in the Brownsville, Texas area right near the border with Mexico.
The track and intensity forecasts still have some significant uncertainty attached to them, given the difficulty forecasting how much weakening we'll see as Beryl crosses the Yucatan, as well as how much strengthening is likely as Beryl traverses some very warm waters in the SW Gulf of Mexico.
Also, as one can see by the forecast map, slight changes in the track towards the NE could bring much of the Texas coast into play, given the angle of approach of the storm, so places like Corpus Christi and Houston need to be on alert, i.e., a 100 mph hurricane striking Houston isn't out of the question and neither is another landfall in Mexico. In fact, the Euro and GFS models show a solution closer to a Corpus Christi landfall vs. the hurricane models and the NHC forecast of a Brownsville landfall. One thing that's fairly certain is that flooding rains are likely in South and Central Texas with 4-8" of rain forecast right now.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 20.1N 86.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.7N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 21.7N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 06/1800Z 22.9N 93.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 23.8N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 24.7N 96.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 26.0N 97.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 28.0N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 30.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...4-07-05-hurricane-beryl-forecast-mexico-texas
As feared, the NHC has adjusted Beryl's forecast track to the NE again, with the current forecast landfall being near Corpus Christi, TX Monday afternoon, as a strong Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane (90-100 mph), after traveling northward just offshore from the TX/MX border, meaning those coastal areas would likely see hurricane conditions. This also means that the TX coast all the way up to Houston is at risk of landfall, since it would only take a small track shift east to lead to a large shift NE in landfall, given the angle of approach and shape of the coast being fairly parallel. Rainfall forecasts along and east of the track (along the coast and a few hundred miles inland) are for widespread 4-8" amounts with locally up to 12", bringing significant inland flooding risks, along with the coastal flooding risks from storm surges of 3-5 feet. This is becoming a much more dangerous storm for Texas.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
Beryl likely to make landfall on the Central TX coast as a strong Cat 1 hurricane (85-90 mph) early on Monday. Beryl has become better organized and is strengthening again with winds up to 65 mph, as wind shear has decreased and the storm is expected to turn NNW tonight, likely striking somewhere around Matagorda Bay (about 80-90 miles SW of Galveston) in the pre-dawn hours of Monday.
Unfortunately, Beryl is forecast to strengthen to 85-90 mph right before landfall, so wind damage will likely be significant, but the biggest threat is probably the 3-6' storm surge for much of the TX coast, all the way from Corpus Christi up to Galveston Bay and even to Beaumont. In addition, flooding rains of 4-8" (with up to 12" locally, especially near landfall) will impact a large part of eastern TX, much of AK and even SE MO over the next few days. Isolated tornadoes are also possible, especially NE of the track.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/151128.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/article/storms/hurricane/news/2024-06-29-hurricane-beryl-tracker-maps
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 25.9N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 29.2N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 31.4N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 33.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 36.2N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 38.6N 89.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 42.8N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z 46.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
Unfortunately, Beryl is forecast to strengthen to 85-90 mph right before landfall, so wind damage will likely be significant, but the biggest threat is probably the 3-6' storm surge for much of the TX coast, all the way from Corpus Christi up to Galveston Bay and even to Beaumont. In addition, flooding rains of 4-8" (with up to 12" locally, especially near landfall) will impact a large part of eastern TX, much of AK and even SE MO over the next few days. Isolated tornadoes are also possible, especially NE of the track.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/151128.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/article/storms/hurricane/news/2024-06-29-hurricane-beryl-tracker-maps
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 25.9N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 29.2N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 31.4N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 33.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 36.2N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 38.6N 89.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 42.8N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z 46.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
Beryl strengthened over the last 12 hours as expected and made landfall as an 80 mph Cat 1 hurricane around 5 am EDT at Matagorda, TX about 80 miles SW of Galveston, putting Galveston and Houston on the stronger, NE side of the storm. Numerous wind gusts over 90 mph have been recorded near and a bit NE of landfall with 70+ mph gusts in Galveston/Houston. In addition, some tornadoes are likely up along and NE of the track, including well inland into eastern TX/western LA and even southern Arkansas. So far, there are already 400K power outages in Texas.
Storm surge of 4-7' along and NE of landfall and even 4-6' for Galveston Bay are expected and ongoing, along with heavy rains, up to 12" locally along and NE of the track inland as far as Houston, so flooding is a serious risk. Rainfalls of 4-8" will be common in eastern TX and into central/western AR and even SE MO, which will likely produce widespread flooding and 2-4" rainfalls will extend all the way up through parts of IL/IN/OH/MI. While all of these impacts are pretty serious, we're pretty lucky Beryl didn't have 12-24 more hours to strengthen further, as it was starting to strengthen fairly quickly when it made landfall.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...hurricane-tropical-storm-beryl-forecast-texas
Storm surge of 4-7' along and NE of landfall and even 4-6' for Galveston Bay are expected and ongoing, along with heavy rains, up to 12" locally along and NE of the track inland as far as Houston, so flooding is a serious risk. Rainfalls of 4-8" will be common in eastern TX and into central/western AR and even SE MO, which will likely produce widespread flooding and 2-4" rainfalls will extend all the way up through parts of IL/IN/OH/MI. While all of these impacts are pretty serious, we're pretty lucky Beryl didn't have 12-24 more hours to strengthen further, as it was starting to strengthen fairly quickly when it made landfall.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...hurricane-tropical-storm-beryl-forecast-texas
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I don't understand your question, as an 80 mph hurricane is clearly not major (Cat 3 and above, i.e., over 110 mph), unless perhaps you don't know what the categories are. It was obviously a major hurricane (Cat 3/4/5) earlier in its life.
No direct impact, although the moisture plume from the remnant low, which will be well to our NW, will possibly feed some of the storms expected late in the week, possibly into Saturday. Current forecast for Saturday is hot with a low chance of showers, but there is some potential for heavier lines of showers than currently in the forecast, as per the forecaster discussion below...
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&highlight=off&glossary=1
Friday into Saturday...Remnant low of Beryl should be well north and
weakening/filling by the day time on Friday. However, the previously
mentioned cold front will be stalling near or over our region. In
the mid and upper levels, a trailing trough will be approaching our
region in this period. The biggest concern I have with this period
of the forecast is the potential for heavy rain. Not only will
precipitable water values remain high (as there will be minimal dry
air advection between Thursday and Friday), but this set up has many
similarities to a Maddox Synoptic heavy rain event. The front
should be stationary (or very slow moving), it has a favored
orientation for these types of events, and the winds from 700 to 300
mb should be nearly parallel to the front. This could set the stage
for training storms capable of heavy downpours.
The main question remaining in terms of the threat specifically to
our region is how close the front will get before stalling. Some of
the latest deterministic guidance shows it stalling further west,
limiting the risk in our region. However, this is a relatively new
trend over the past few model runs, and there remains some models
depicting the front stalling over our region.
Saturday night into Sunday...Front should dissipate, and flow aloft
should become mostly zonal. While I can`t rule out some additional
storm development, by this point it is unlikely we will see
widespread thunderstorm coverage. Another mid an upper level trough
could approach as early as late Sunday, but confidence in the timing
of that feature is low at this time.
We track storms, particularly hurricanes, closely where I work as we manufacture roofing materials. We do it from both a risk perspective in terms of protecting our plants and maintaining the flow of raw materials, and on the back end with roof repairs. I'm involved closely with this and predicting supplier risk. Right now our models are predicting 10,000 homes to have roof damage in Harris County alone. I haven't seen the breakdown yet between complete replacements vs repairs. At times our models disagree with what you write but our models have been proven to be reliable.
I recall you talking about this before - sounds interesting. Remember, when it comes to hurricanes, I really don't post much that's different from what the NHC or a few key mets might say, so are you saying you have/use in-house models different from the models the mets use? Or are you taking peak wind speeds (sustained or gusts) from the model consensus and using that as an input into a model which then predicts roof damage based on expertise your company has developed?
2.7 million without power, 2 dead from falling trees and numerous tornadoes have already spun up with several more in progress right now in east Texas/western Louisiana/southern Arkansas. Rough day down there.
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Hey guys. This is beaced. Tried to get a recent pic of me on here at current age of 98 years and 7 months but my daughter who is doing this for me is not able to do so. Perhaps in the near future. I've been able to follow posts on this site but have not been able to reply until now. I'm looking forward to the new season coming up shortly. I guess practice will start the end of this month and continue up till game day on 29 August. Looks like a good season ahead if everything continues to go well and something I'm really looking forward to. Keep on posting and I will be able to read and reply. Until then everybody stay healthy and happy and enjoy the rest of your summer. Thanks for everything.
Wish I could like this 100X! Great to see you posting again and I think we're all looking forward to this season.
Sustained winds and wind gusts are critical component of estimating how many roofs are damaged. The morning after a storm we have estimates to the level of damage so we can start moving inventory into the affected area before our competitors.
So.. it was once a major hurricane.. and it hit the USA blow that threshold.. so when they score it vs their predictions.. which is it? Where in these categories you posted earlier, does it count?
Didn't realize you were looking at the probabilities of a major landfalling hurricane, probably because I rarely look at that, as the primary part of the forecast, to me, is the numbers of TS/hurricanes/major hurricanes for the season. It absolutely counts as a major, Cat 5 hurricane for the overall seasonal storm stats, but for the US landfalling hurricane stats, it was a Cat 1 at landfall, not a major hurricane.So.. it was once a major hurricane.. and it hit the USA blow that threshold.. so when they score it vs their predictions.. which is it? Where in these categories you posted earlier, does it count?
I suspect you assumed I was trying to make a negative point rather than ask an honest question. Not entirely your mistake given my history on weather/climate subjects. But just like the so-called "fish storms" and how the predictions get adjusted during the seasons, I wonder how they "score" their accuracy when there are new measuring methods and range (over the decades) . Just curious as to getting a better understanding of how the data is registered toward eventual accuracy scoring.
In this case, the trigger was the percentages in that 1-2-3 "Probabilities.." section in the graphic. Example: Line No. 1 - 62% this year vs 43% probability for period 1880-2020... to me, that just stinks of a meaningless talking point to push an agenda (climate change making hurricane season more active/dangerous). The 43% is bogus, IMHO, while the 62% is probably what they think based on real science. It would make no sense to inflate this years predictions because if they do not work out, then they are scored badly. But the 43% is based on poor data, comparatively.
So I wanted to know how many predictions already came true based on Beryl.
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Tropical activity in the Atlantic and maybe even Caribbean will likely be on the low side for at least the next few weeks, as we're seeing a major Saharan Air Layer from Africa to the US and Caribbean. This dry/dusty layer several thousand feet up in the atmosphere brought towards us by the tropical westerlies tends to suppress tropical activity due to dry air intrusion (tropical systems need lots of moisture to form and grow). These are most common in June-August, which are often slow tropical months anyway, but don't be surprised if there isn't a lot of activity for awhile, although that likely won't affect seasonal activity much, since so much of that occurs from mid-August through the end of October. We'll see, of course.
https://www.wtxl.com/weather/hurric...he-sahara-desert-factors-into-tropical-action
https://www.wtxl.com/weather/hurric...he-sahara-desert-factors-into-tropical-action
For selfish reasons (September beach reservations), I'm hoping this dusty Saharan air layer continues through mid-September.
It's unlikely, as the SAL usually subsides by then, but I understand the desire. Where will you be? We'll be in OCNJ the middle 2 weeks of September. I don't want to get "hit" by one when we're there, but I wouldn't mind a close call as it's fun to watch storms from the beach and tropical systems in our latitude are typically moving pretty quickly, so we're talking about less than 24 hours of rain.
Emerald Isle but don’t tell anybody :). I know what you mean about a close call. Been going there for years and one time had a storm that had just been downgraded from a Cat 1 to a TS go right over us. Pretty interesting and it was a fast mover.
Yeah, the NC coast is a pretty high risk area for tropical systems as I'm sure you know, especially in September. Good luck.
Well, we finally have something to watch, as a broad tropical wave is located just east of the Greater Antilles (PR/Hispaniola/Cuba) with convection firing in many disconnected places, as there is no real circulation center yet (although there are signs of one coming together). Most of the global/hurricane models show this system likely becoming a named system sometime in the next 5-7 days, somewhere in the vicinity of the eastern GOM/Florida/SW Atlantic - impossible to know, for sure, if we're going to get a named storm (would be Debby) and if we do, where it will go and how strong it might be. Worth watching closely, as this one's not 10 days away across the Atlantic.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward
Islands, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and
northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of this system is not
anticipated during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles. However,
environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for
development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a
tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern Atlantic Ocean,
including in the vicinity of Florida. Interests across the Greater
Antilles, Bahamas, and Florida should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward
Islands, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and
northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of this system is not
anticipated during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles. However,
environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for
development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a
tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern Atlantic Ocean,
including in the vicinity of Florida. Interests across the Greater
Antilles, Bahamas, and Florida should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Euro ensembles starting sniffing this out about 9 days ago - will be quite a coup for the long range Euro if we do indeed see a named system from this.
We don't use what is published for the masses. We use service called tomorrow.io and everstream. ai.
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