OT: 2024 Atlantic Basin Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC/Others) Predicting Extremely Active Season...Ernesto Likely Up Next

[RUPete]

I think we lucked out with this thing. Looking forward to better weather during the week ahead.

 

[RUtix4me]

Moving to the next tropical activity forming in the Atlantic now. I am hearing from a family member that there is some potential for east coast New England trajectory in early models. My brother mentioned 12 day gfs.

I know it’s very very early. Thoughts?

 

[RU848789]

Next up is a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic that the NHC gives a 60% chance of TS formation in the next 7 days, as conditions are relatively favorable for development, i.e., the abnormally warm ocean (fuel), low to moderate shear, and a relatively moist environment now and along its expected path. First area at risk would be the Lesser/Greater Antilles Islands ringing the Caribbean, but still a long way to go before we actually have a storm (if we get one, which isn't a given). Worth watching, though.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7

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This next wave is becoming more organized with more convection and the NHC now says it's 90% likely to become a named storm in the next 7 days and possibly within 2-3 days. If so, this will be Ernesto and most model tracks take the system over or near the northern Leeward Islands (the little islands E/SE of Puerto Rico) and Puerto Rico in 3-5 days and possibly Hispaniola/Cuba in 4-6 days, possibly as a hurricane, if the intensity forecasts are even close to being right.

Beyond that most indications are that the system will curve N, then NE and stay off the east coast, but that's educated guesswork at this point, as beyond 6-7 days has extremely high uncertainty, especially since we don’t even have a center of circulation yet (so we don't know the starting point for the model runs very well) and the steering currents downstream are also highly uncertain that far out (such as the strength/speed of the forecasted east coast trough and the western Atlantic ridge), plus we don't know much about the potential land interaction with the larger islands of the Greater Antilles. So interests in the Bahamas, Florida and eventually even the Gulf of Mexico and US east coast need to pay attention to this system until we have a better handle on it.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-forecast-lesser-antilles-puerto-rico-ernesto

 

[RU848789]

Moving to the next tropical activity forming in the Atlantic now. I am hearing from a family member that there is some potential for east coast New England trajectory in early models. My brother mentioned 12 day gfs.

I know it’s very very early. Thoughts?

Pay zero attention to anything beyond about day 7-8 - the uncertainty is just too high. But as I just posted, folks on the east coast should keep an eye on this one as any storm that is forecasted to be near the Greater Antilles/Bahamas (in 5-7 days, which is somewhat more certain than any 12 day forecast) has a non-zero chance of impacting Florida and the east coast...although most models show the system staying off the coast, but that's so far out that confidence is quite low. Hope that helps.

 

[RU848789]

Very nice recap of Debby, from both meteorology and impact perspectives. The storm was extremely well forecast from inception through landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida as a Cat 1 hurricane and then its slowdown and torrential rains/tornadoes for NE FL, GA and SC and then its fairly fast track from NC to Canada, well west of the 95 corridor, where there were also flooding rains, high winds and isolated tornadoes. The forecast wasn't so great for most of NJ for Debby's remnants.

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-recap-flooding-tornadoes-southeast-northeast

 

[pmvon]

Heading to Turks and Caicos on Monday and returning Saturday. How does it look? Not much on weather.com other than rain in Thursday.

 

[RU848789]

Heading to Turks and Caicos on Monday and returning Saturday. How does it look? Not much on weather.com other than rain in Thursday.

Likely a close call. Mid/late in the week, storm could go right over the islands or go north of them or just bring some squally weather.

 

[pmvon]

When will there be an update and any chance this thing is at cart 1 before tomorrow morning? Thanks numbers.

 

[rubaseball78]

Our models show a 90% chance of developing into a storm. Looks to have a similar path to Debbie.

 

[RU848789]

When will there be an update and any chance this thing is at cart 1 before tomorrow morning? Thanks numbers.

Looking more like a fish storm now, after hitting the Leeward Islands and probably Puerto Rico, possibly as a Cat 1 hurricane. Let's hope this stays well off the coast.

 

[jaydogsmooth1]

Looking more like a fish storm now, after hitting the Leeward Islands and probably Puerto Rico, possibly as a Cat 1 hurricane. Let's hope this stays well off the coast.

#'s, heading over to Singer Island near West Palm Beach on Friday. Any impacts to the flight with rain / wind outside the cone ?

 

[RU848789]

#'s, heading over to Singer Island near West Palm Beach on Friday. Any impacts to the flight with rain / wind outside the cone ?

Can't imagine any impacts to WPB other than heavy surf/swells.

 

[RU848789]

Our models show a 90% chance of developing into a storm. Looks to have a similar path to Debbie.

Somewhat similar to Debby through about Puerto Rico, then totally different, as Debby went into the GOM and then swung back into N FL, while Ernesto looks to stay well offshore of FL/US east coast. I assume your in-house model isn't really showing it's the same as Debby; if so, that would be another bad forecast for the model (along with the projection of landfall in Alabama for Debby and the comment that there was a low chance of Debby turning into NJ).

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Can't imagine any impacts to WPB other than heavy surf/swells.

How many days does that usually last?

 

[rubaseball78]

Somewhat similar to Debby through about Puerto Rico, then totally different, as Debby went into the GOM and then swung back into N FL, while Ernesto looks to stay well offshore of FL/US east coast. I assume your in-house model isn't really showing it's the same as Debby; if so, that would be another bad forecast for the model (along with the projection of landfall in Alabama for Debby and the comment that there was a low chance of Debby turning into NJ).

Its too early to say totally different than Debby

 

[RU848789]

Its too early to say totally different than Debby

Usually I'd agree, but I've rarely seen a model consensus (both operational and ensembles) this good 5+ days out, plus, the NHC forecast track would have to shift about 1000 miles west for it to be like Debby and there just has never been an error that large, at least not in the modern era of numerical weather modeling. So, it's not too early, for me, to say this will be very different from Debby. Having said that, it doesn't mean I'm 100% in on the track staying that far off the east coast, since that's out 7-9 days and uncertainty is still high for that - which is why I think Atlantic Canada still needs to watch this.

 

[rubaseball78]

We are more than comfortable with our methods and the forecast info we use.