OT: 2024 Atlantic Basin Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC/Others Predicting Extremely Active Season; Francine Likely Up Next, Threatening Central Gulf Coast
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Francine made landfall in Terrebonne Parish, SW of Morgan City, today at 5 pm CDT with 100 mph winds; the storm surge was substantial and catastrophic for some locations. And a Flash flood emergency was recently declared for New Orleans and much of SE LA, after 6-10" of rain has fallen in a short time. Numerous flood reports, water rescues, etc., and that's just from the rain. Hundreds of thousands without power and more to come, as Francine is still a 75 mph hurricane, although weakening.
And we now have tropical depression 7, in the eastern Atlantic, which is likely to become tropical storm Gordon soon. This will likely not become a hurricane and will remain a fish storm, never approaching any land masses.
Beyond that, there is some chance of a sub?tropical storm forming off the Carolinas early next week, which could bring our area some rain by Tues/Weds, after 5 more days of gorgeous September weather through at least Monday, but this forecast is highly uncertain. The NWS-Philly discussion on this is below.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As a whole, little in the way of changes were made to the long
term period. The upper level blocking pattern begins to break
down a bit late Sunday into Monday, but should continue to
remain dry areawide through this timeframe.
Beyond Monday, the forecast becomes a bit uncertain as the
weather pattern is less clear after the breakdown of the block.
For now, much of the available global deterministic guidance
indicates that there is potential for the development of a
tropical disturbance off the Southeast Coast on Monday along a
stalled boundary. What exactly happens regarding strength,
track, and if it even develops is not clear at this time. Will
continue to monitor this threat closely over the weekend as
weather features following blocking patterns are often difficult
to predict. Hence, maintained a 20-30% chance of showers on
Tuesday and Wednesday for the entire region.
Beyond that, there is some chance of a sub?tropical storm forming off the Carolinas early next week, which could bring our area some rain by Tues/Weds, after 5 more days of gorgeous September weather through at least Monday, but this forecast is highly uncertain. The NWS-Philly discussion on this is below.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As a whole, little in the way of changes were made to the long
term period. The upper level blocking pattern begins to break
down a bit late Sunday into Monday, but should continue to
remain dry areawide through this timeframe.
Beyond Monday, the forecast becomes a bit uncertain as the
weather pattern is less clear after the breakdown of the block.
For now, much of the available global deterministic guidance
indicates that there is potential for the development of a
tropical disturbance off the Southeast Coast on Monday along a
stalled boundary. What exactly happens regarding strength,
track, and if it even develops is not clear at this time. Will
continue to monitor this threat closely over the weekend as
weather features following blocking patterns are often difficult
to predict. Hence, maintained a 20-30% chance of showers on
Tuesday and Wednesday for the entire region.
Sorry, the NC coast looks like it will be getting significant rain much of this coming week from a low pressure system (which may or may not become subtropical, although it really doesn't matter as the impacts will likely be similar, i.e., mostly rain); that rain gets to NJ by about Tuesday night, but could be a bit, could be a lot (highly uncertain).
