OT: 2024 Atlantic Basin Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC/Others) Predicting Extremely Active Season...Hurricane Beryl Takes Aim at South Texas...
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Beryl just a few hours away from causing likely major to catastrophic damage to Jamaica from winds, surge and rain (especially in the mountains where flooding/mudslides are likely), as the storm will either strike the southern coast of the island as a Cat 4 hurricane (likely weakening to 130-140 mph from the current 145 mph) or come very close to it with the difference being small, really, especially with the northern, stronger side of the storm lashing Jamaica. The only "good" thing is that Beryl is moving quickly (~20 mph), so the worst conditions will only last 6-12 hours vs. 18-24 hours with slow moving storms.
Beryl will likely miss the Cayman Islands, but still bring hurricane conditions to them to early on Thursday and then will strike the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Friday as a likely Cat 2 hurricane (90-100 mph). After emerging into the Bay of Campeche (GOM), Beryl will then turn NW and likely make a final landfall in northern Mexico (small chance of that being far south Texas) as a minimal Cat 1 hurricane late Sunday night, although forecasts 5 days out, especially for intensity are more prone to error.
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-07-02-hurricane-beryl-jamaica-cayman-islands
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.../graphics_at2.../024812.shtml...
Beryl will likely miss the Cayman Islands, but still bring hurricane conditions to them to early on Thursday and then will strike the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Friday as a likely Cat 2 hurricane (90-100 mph). After emerging into the Bay of Campeche (GOM), Beryl will then turn NW and likely make a final landfall in northern Mexico (small chance of that being far south Texas) as a minimal Cat 1 hurricane late Sunday night, although forecasts 5 days out, especially for intensity are more prone to error.
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-07-02-hurricane-beryl-jamaica-cayman-islands
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.../graphics_at2.../024812.shtml...
Sadly, 7 are now known dead from Beryl and damage was catastrophic on several of the Windward Islands.
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...pdates-for-windward-leeward-islands-caribbean
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After hammering the Windward Islands, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, Beryl just make landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula near Tulum as a strong Cat 2 storm with 110 mph winds, as Beryl weakened over the last 2 days, as expected, due to increased wind shear and some dry air entrainment. Beryl's forecast track has shifted significantly northward and the storm is now forecast to make landfall as a Cat 1 hurricane with ~85 mph winds early on Monday in the Brownsville, Texas area right near the border with Mexico.
The track and intensity forecasts still have some significant uncertainty attached to them, given the difficulty forecasting how much weakening we'll see as Beryl crosses the Yucatan, as well as how much strengthening is likely as Beryl traverses some very warm waters in the SW Gulf of Mexico.
Also, as one can see by the forecast map, slight changes in the track towards the NE could bring much of the Texas coast into play, given the angle of approach of the storm, so places like Corpus Christi and Houston need to be on alert, i.e., a 100 mph hurricane striking Houston isn't out of the question and neither is another landfall in Mexico. In fact, the Euro and GFS models show a solution closer to a Corpus Christi landfall vs. the hurricane models and the NHC forecast of a Brownsville landfall. One thing that's fairly certain is that flooding rains are likely in South and Central Texas with 4-8" of rain forecast right now.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 20.1N 86.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.7N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 21.7N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 06/1800Z 22.9N 93.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 23.8N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 24.7N 96.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 26.0N 97.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 28.0N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 30.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...4-07-05-hurricane-beryl-forecast-mexico-texas
The track and intensity forecasts still have some significant uncertainty attached to them, given the difficulty forecasting how much weakening we'll see as Beryl crosses the Yucatan, as well as how much strengthening is likely as Beryl traverses some very warm waters in the SW Gulf of Mexico.
Also, as one can see by the forecast map, slight changes in the track towards the NE could bring much of the Texas coast into play, given the angle of approach of the storm, so places like Corpus Christi and Houston need to be on alert, i.e., a 100 mph hurricane striking Houston isn't out of the question and neither is another landfall in Mexico. In fact, the Euro and GFS models show a solution closer to a Corpus Christi landfall vs. the hurricane models and the NHC forecast of a Brownsville landfall. One thing that's fairly certain is that flooding rains are likely in South and Central Texas with 4-8" of rain forecast right now.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 20.1N 86.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.7N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 21.7N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 06/1800Z 22.9N 93.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 23.8N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 24.7N 96.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 26.0N 97.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 28.0N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 30.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...4-07-05-hurricane-beryl-forecast-mexico-texas
After hammering the Windward Islands, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, Beryl just make landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula near Tulum as a strong Cat 2 storm with 110 mph winds, as Beryl weakened over the last 2 days, as expected, due to increased wind shear and some dry air entrainment. Beryl's forecast track has shifted significantly northward and the storm is now forecast to make landfall as a Cat 1 hurricane with ~85 mph winds early on Monday in the Brownsville, Texas area right near the border with Mexico.
The track and intensity forecasts still have some significant uncertainty attached to them, given the difficulty forecasting how much weakening we'll see as Beryl crosses the Yucatan, as well as how much strengthening is likely as Beryl traverses some very warm waters in the SW Gulf of Mexico.
Also, as one can see by the forecast map, slight changes in the track towards the NE could bring much of the Texas coast into play, given the angle of approach of the storm, so places like Corpus Christi and Houston need to be on alert, i.e., a 100 mph hurricane striking Houston isn't out of the question and neither is another landfall in Mexico. In fact, the Euro and GFS models show a solution closer to a Corpus Christi landfall vs. the hurricane models and the NHC forecast of a Brownsville landfall. One thing that's fairly certain is that flooding rains are likely in South and Central Texas with 4-8" of rain forecast right now.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 20.1N 86.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.7N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 21.7N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 06/1800Z 22.9N 93.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 23.8N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 24.7N 96.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 26.0N 97.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 28.0N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 30.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...4-07-05-hurricane-beryl-forecast-mexico-texas
As feared, the NHC has adjusted Beryl's forecast track to the NE again, with the current forecast landfall being near Corpus Christi, TX Monday afternoon, as a strong Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane (90-100 mph), after traveling northward just offshore from the TX/MX border, meaning those coastal areas would likely see hurricane conditions. This also means that the TX coast all the way up to Houston is at risk of landfall, since it would only take a small track shift east to lead to a large shift NE in landfall, given the angle of approach and shape of the coast being fairly parallel. Rainfall forecasts along and east of the track (along the coast and a few hundred miles inland) are for widespread 4-8" amounts with locally up to 12", bringing significant inland flooding risks, along with the coastal flooding risks from storm surges of 3-5 feet. This is becoming a much more dangerous storm for Texas.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
Beryl likely to make landfall on the Central TX coast as a strong Cat 1 hurricane (85-90 mph) early on Monday. Beryl has become better organized and is strengthening again with winds up to 65 mph, as wind shear has decreased and the storm is expected to turn NNW tonight, likely striking somewhere around Matagorda Bay (about 80-90 miles SW of Galveston) in the pre-dawn hours of Monday.
Unfortunately, Beryl is forecast to strengthen to 85-90 mph right before landfall, so wind damage will likely be significant, but the biggest threat is probably the 3-6' storm surge for much of the TX coast, all the way from Corpus Christi up to Galveston Bay and even to Beaumont. In addition, flooding rains of 4-8" (with up to 12" locally, especially near landfall) will impact a large part of eastern TX, much of AK and even SE MO over the next few days. Isolated tornadoes are also possible, especially NE of the track.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/151128.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/article/storms/hurricane/news/2024-06-29-hurricane-beryl-tracker-maps
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 25.9N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 29.2N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 31.4N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 33.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 36.2N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 38.6N 89.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 42.8N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z 46.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
Unfortunately, Beryl is forecast to strengthen to 85-90 mph right before landfall, so wind damage will likely be significant, but the biggest threat is probably the 3-6' storm surge for much of the TX coast, all the way from Corpus Christi up to Galveston Bay and even to Beaumont. In addition, flooding rains of 4-8" (with up to 12" locally, especially near landfall) will impact a large part of eastern TX, much of AK and even SE MO over the next few days. Isolated tornadoes are also possible, especially NE of the track.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/151128.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/article/storms/hurricane/news/2024-06-29-hurricane-beryl-tracker-maps
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 25.9N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 29.2N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 31.4N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 33.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 36.2N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 38.6N 89.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 42.8N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z 46.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
Beryl strengthened over the last 12 hours as expected and made landfall as an 80 mph Cat 1 hurricane around 5 am EDT at Matagorda, TX about 80 miles SW of Galveston, putting Galveston and Houston on the stronger, NE side of the storm. Numerous wind gusts over 90 mph have been recorded near and a bit NE of landfall with 70+ mph gusts in Galveston/Houston. In addition, some tornadoes are likely up along and NE of the track, including well inland into eastern TX/western LA and even southern AK. So far, there are already 400K power outages in Texas.
Storm surge of 4-7' along and NE of landfall and even 4-6' for Galveston Bay are expected and ongoing, along with heavy rains, up to 12" locally along and NE of the track inland as far as Houston, so flooding is a serious risk. Rainfalls of 4-8" will be common in eastern TX and into central/western AK and even SE MO, which will likely produce widespread flooding and 2-4" rainfalls will extend all the way up through parts of IL/IN/OH/MI. While all of these impacts are pretty serious, we're pretty lucky Beryl didn't have 12-24 more hours to strengthen further, as it was starting to strengthen fairly quickly when it made landfall.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...hurricane-tropical-storm-beryl-forecast-texas
Storm surge of 4-7' along and NE of landfall and even 4-6' for Galveston Bay are expected and ongoing, along with heavy rains, up to 12" locally along and NE of the track inland as far as Houston, so flooding is a serious risk. Rainfalls of 4-8" will be common in eastern TX and into central/western AK and even SE MO, which will likely produce widespread flooding and 2-4" rainfalls will extend all the way up through parts of IL/IN/OH/MI. While all of these impacts are pretty serious, we're pretty lucky Beryl didn't have 12-24 more hours to strengthen further, as it was starting to strengthen fairly quickly when it made landfall.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...hurricane-tropical-storm-beryl-forecast-texas
