Summary: People on the central Florida Gulf coast (and even inland a ways from there) should be seriously considering evacuating or at least have a plan to evacuate once Milton's track is nailed down better in the next day or two, as the center of the forecast track brings a 115-120 mph hurricane directly over Tampa on Wednesday late afternoon/early evening (although the track cone goes from the Big Bend to Marco Island, so a Tampa landfall is not a given). If we have a major hurricane hitting Tampa, the impacts are likely to be substantial to catastrophic for hundreds of thousands of people.
I don’t often lead with warnings like the bold part above, but Tampa hasn’t seen a direct hit from a major hurricane since 1921 (and only one other time in recorded history in 1848), when the population was tiny, but for those storms the damage was catastrophic from both the winds and the storm surge. Even Helene, which missed Tampa by ~100 miles (at its closest) still caused the worst storm surge (~7 ft) since the 1921 hurricane, which had ~10’ of surge and the 1841 storm, which was likely a tad weaker than Helene, had an estimated 15’ of surge; and even a glancing blow from Helene killed 11 people in Tampa. 10-15 feet or more of surge and Cat 3 winds are almost unimaginable for modern day Tampa Metro, which now has 3.2MM people vs. ~100K in 1921 and a few thousand in 1848. Tampa's hurricane history is detailed in the link below.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article293362924.html
Details: As of this evening we have Tropical Storm Milton in the western Gulf of Mexico when we had not much more than a blob of precip 24 hours ago and unfortunately, the models and NHC forecast are calling for Milton to become a major hurricane with ~120 mph winds (as of now), with the center of the forecast track taking the hurricane into the Tampa area late Wednesday afternoon, although the track cone goes from the Big Bend to Marco Island, so uncertainty is still fairly high on the exact track/landfall, which is not unusual 4 days out. Storm surge maps aren’t available yet, but surges of up to 15’ are going to be likely along and south of the storm’s track, which would cause catastrophic damage, as would Cat 3 hurricane force wind gusts. Storm surge is likely be substantial (5-10 feet?) even ~100 miles south of the track, too.
After that, if the forecast track verifies, Helene will be coming very close to or directly hitting Metro Orlando, putting that area, which has 2.7MM people, at risk of seeing a Cat 1/2 hurricane as Milton moves inland; even the FL east coast near Daytona would likely see a Cat 1 storm in that scenario. Note that given a fairly fast moving storm, the rainfall amounts would likely “only” be 5-8” (locally up to 12”) for most of the Florida peninsula (except the Panhandle, which would get much less), which would certainly produce some major flooding, but likely not widespread catastrophic flooding. Also, as usual, scattered small tornadoes along and south of Milton’s track will be likely. And most of central Florida would see many downed trees/power lines and associated power outages in this scenario. Beyond that, hopefully the storm will exit off the east coast of FL and head out to sea as most models show, with minimal impact on the east coast from GA northward, apart from heavy surf.
The WSW to ENE track of Milton is also highly unusual for a GOM storm, but it’s being steered by a strong mid-latitude trough approaching the SE US, which should prevent Milton from turning further north than Florida and should also prevent Milton from emerging off the FL Atlantic coast and heading up towards the Carolinas, although that’s still 5+ days out and a turn up the coast can’t be completely ruled out (but is very unlikely). With regard to intensity, as usual forecast accuracy is not as good as it is for track forecasts and the various models show everything from a strong TS to a Cat 4 hurricane with Cat 2/3 hurricane looking the most likely (but that was also the forecast for Helene, which strengthened over its last 6-12 hours over the GOM into a powerful Cat 4 storm. With Milton traveling over very warm GOM waters and not expected to encounter much wind shear, a Cat 4 storm can’t be ruled out and, as for Helene, there could be some strengthening in the final hours before landfall. The usual links are below.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61170-tropical-storm-milton—40-mph1006-mb/page/8/
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...10-05-tropical-storm-hurricane-tracker-milton
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 22.9N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 23.0N 94.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.0N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 23.1N 92.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 23.3N 90.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 23.9N 88.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.3N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 28.2N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 30.8N 76.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
