8th lowest pressure recorded in the Atlantic Basin; Wilma was 882 mbar. But Milton still looks to be strengthening a bit - everyone is waiting for the latest data from the hurricane hunters...
Yep. I have a coworker who owns a place on the barrier island near St. Pete (south of Clearwater) and she said that entire community has debris on yards/curbs. It’s going to be scattered all over. I fear this one is going to be very very bad.
Looks like 897 mbar (and maybe 185 mph - waiting on that), which would be 5th lowest in the Atlantic Basin and 2nd lowest ever in the GOM (Rita was 895 mbar). Wow.
Old data. Milton is 180 mph as of 5 pm EDT. The rapid intensification from 100 mph at 5 am to 180 mph at 5 pm is stunning.
Masco (who I like) has a typo in there: it bottomed out at 897 mbar, as per my post above, not 887 mbar. That's 5th lowest ever in the Atlantic Basin and 4th in "modern times" assuming the 1935 Labor Day hurricane is not modern.
Englewood is not in a good spot, even if it's a Tampa landfall, as it's about 55 miles from the current track, but on the storm's strong side, so it's still forecast to get a 10-15' surge, which is much worse than Englewood saw from Helene, even if it won't get the worst winds. But if the storm shifts south by 20-30 miles (very possible), it would get a similar surge but much worse winds. I would not stick around in Englewood if I lived there and I love crazy weather.
I don't see a need to evacuate from Gainesville, as it's about 100 miles north of the forecast track, which is the weaker side of the storm. This means maybe some tropical storm force gusts (up to 50 mph perhaps, but < 40 mph gusts are the current forecast) that could cause some minor damage (biggest risk being a few downed trees/power lines, so power loss is possible) and some heavy rain (3-6"), but likely not major flooding as that kind of rain isn't that unusual for FL, plus any isolated tornadoes won't be north of the storm's track. So unless there is some major unexpected track shift north, I'd say no need to evacuate. Good luck to them.
NHC at 5 pm: "Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida." As discussed 2 days ago as a possibility, this now looks like a solid bet to be the worst hurricane to hit the Tampa area since 1921.
NHC 5 pm update is now out and Milton is up to 180 mph/905 mbar, which is an incredibly strong Cat 5 hurricane, tied for the 6th strongest ever in the Atlantic Basin and it's still strengthening and is the 2nd fastest Atlantic Basin hurricane to go from Cat 1 to Cat 5 in recorded history (18 hrs; Wilma was fastest at 12 hrs). Fortunately, Milton is still forecast to weaken significantly in the 12-24 hours prior to landfall, due to increased shear and dry air entrainment, as it's predicted to "only" be 125-130 mph (strong Cat 3 to weak Cat 4) at landfall late Wednesday evening/very early Thursday morning. But the weakening will be accompanied by nearly a doubling in size of the tropical storm force wind field, so moderate to significant impacts will be more spread out.
The track forecast hasn't changed much with the center of the forecast track going over the barrier islands SW of Tampa/St. Pete, somewhere between Clearwater Beach and the mouth of the Tampa Bay, although it should be noted that anywhere between Crystal River and Englewood still has some decent chance of seeing landfall, given the uncertainty in a 48-60 hour forecast. Beyond that the forecast track center cuts across the peninsula to about Titusville with the storm exiting into the Atlantic as still a Cat 1 hurricane; fortunately, the track will remain well south of the Carolinas, although the GA/SC coasts will likely see 2-4' of storm surge, as will the Florida east coast down to Sebastien.
The obvious major risks are catastrophic wind damage for the coast and a bit inland within 25-50 miles of landfall and especially south of landfall (strong side of the storm), as well as catastrophic storm surge of 10-15 feet of surge between Anclote River (about 20 miles N of Tampa) and Englewood, so this includes Tampa Bay and assumes the weakening forecast. There is even 5 feet or more of surge forecast well north of the Anclote River to Yankeetown and well south of Englewood down all the way to Marco Island.
Also, the major to locally catastrophic wind risks move all the way across the peninsula for most of central Florida, including Orlando and there may even be some hurricane force gusts as far away from the forecast track as Palm Coast to the north and Vero Beach to the south. In addition, there will be major to locally catastrophic flooding from 4-8" (and locally up to 12" or more) of rainfall in much of central Florida down to Lake Okeechobee and in NE FL up to Jacksonville. And finally, there is always the risk of small isolated tornadoes along and south of the storm's track.
Some of the usual links below:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...10-05-tropical-storm-hurricane-tracker-milton
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61170-category-five-hurricane-milton—180-mph905-mb/page/31/
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 21.8N 90.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 21.9N 89.4W 160 KT 185 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 22.7N 87.4W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 27.9N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 11/1800Z 30.5N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Milton down to 155 mph at 5 am EDT with forecast track nudged very slightly north vs. 11 pm; Tampa area still under the gun for a landfalling strong cat 3 hurricane (~125 mph) around 1 am Thursday if center of forecast track verifies, but the track cone is a bit wider than the typical error at 48 hrs (~65 miles), so landfall location is obviously still a bit of a guess. Storm still forecast to exit into the Atlantic near Titusville/Cape Canaveral as a Cat 1 hurricane then go out to sea. No noteworthy changes to surge/rainfall forecasts.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 22.3N 88.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 10/1800Z 28.8N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/0600Z 29.7N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 30.4N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 31.5N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Only have a few minutes with stuff going on today...the 11 am NHC update has Milton at 150 mph (strong cat 4) and does not predict the storm to regain cat 5 strength. Milton's track shifted a decent amount southward vs. this morning's track, with the center of the track now predicted to hit the Bradenton area, which is about 25 miles south of this morning's track; if this were to verify, the Tampa area would be spared some of the worst storm surge, being to the north of the track and on the weaker side of the storm, but we're still way too far out to discount a landfall, as a strong Cat 3 (~125 mph winds; a Cat 4 with 130 mph+ winds can't be ruled out either if there is less weakening than forecast) anywhere between Tarpon Springs and Port Charlotte (which includes the Tampa area), as track errors are still in the 50-65 mile range at ~36 hours before landfall.
The forecast track has Milton still having ~100 mph winds near Orlando and has the storm exiting near Cape Canaveral as a Cat 1 hurricane (~90 mph winds) so there will be hurricane conditions across the peninsula along and near the storm's track (especially to the south of the track). The surge map hasn't really changed since yesterday, but the rainfall forecast has steadily increased such that more widespread 8-12"+ amounts are likely for much of central Florida near and maybe 50-75 miles north of the track (due to interactions with the approaching front) with 4-8" well north of the track and just to the south of the track, as per the graphics below. Obviously, the wind damage will be major to catastrophic especially along/near the coast and even inland a ways, as will be the storm surge damage and the flooding potential is there for major to catastrophic damage, even well inland and north of the track.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 22.7N 88.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Naples is in the 5-8 foot storm surge area, so would need to know his elevation. Winds won't be that big of a deal there (maybe some TS gusts at worst, i.e., 40-50 mph gusts) and neither will rain (<2"). As long as he's not at a surge risk or close to it if the surge overperforms, evacuation shouldn't be necessary.
Can't imagine that being an issue, then - should be fine. As I've been telling my family in Vero Beach and I'd say the same for folks well south of the track, the biggest risk to them (since rainfall and winds shouldn't be insane) is a wind gust causing a tree to fall on a house (or on a person outside of the house) - or getting very unlucky and having one of the scattered small tornadoes hitting them (can't do anything to prevent that other than going to Tallahassee, lol.
General rule of thumb is it's safer to be north of the track than south (if one is fairly close to the track, i.e., within 30 miles), as the south side of a hurricane is stronger, plus given the approach angle, the winds will be coming on-shore south of the track, making for higher storm surgers. Not sure if the ~10 miles from Bradenton to Sarasota is going to make for much difference though.
The only risk to HH is surge, which will cause some flooding at 2-4 feet of surge. No rain/wind issues at all.
Summary: Milton back up to 165 mph Cat 5 status with landfall now forecast to be further south than earlier today, i.e., in the Bradenton to Venice area (Sarasota being at the forecast track center) as a strong Cat 3 with ~125 mph winds around 12-2 am Thursday. After that, Milton is forecast to cross the FL peninsula, while weakening to a Cat 1 storm (~85 mph) upon exiting into the Atlantic, near Melbourne, which is also south of earlier forecasts. Substantial to catastrophic damage is expected from winds, surge and eventual inland flooding from torrential rains, as detailed below, with some isolated small tornadoes to boot. Mass evacuations are well underway in large parts of Central Florida.
Details: The 5 pm NHC advisory just came out and Milton has strengthened back up to 165 mph (cat 5) with a more symmetrical structure and clearer eye than earlier today and a larger eye and larger diameter wind field vs. yesterday when it was a Cat 5 with ~180 mph winds, but was much smaller; this is a bit of a surprise as the 11 am NHC advisory did not have Milton reaching Cat 5 status again - once again, this reflects the difficulty of making accurate intensity forecasts. Milton is, however, still forecast to encounter significant shear and some dry air entrainment tomorrow in the 12-24 hours before landfall, weakening the storm considerably to about 125 mph (strong cat 3) at landfall, but as I've said countless times, intensity forecasts are much less accurate than track forecasts, so people near the projected landfall need to be preparing for at least a Cat 4 storm (130+ mph), IMO.
Milton's track shifted another 10-15 miles southward vs. the 11 am NHC track, with the center of the track now predicted to hit the Sarasota area (was Bradenton); if this were to verify, the Tampa area would be spared some of the worst storm surge, being to the north of the track and on the weaker side of the storm, but we're still too far out to discount a Tampa landfall, as there are still models showing a Tampa or even a bit further north landfall (but most have landfall from Bradenton to Venice) since the forecast cone still runs from Tarpon Springs to Fort Myers (which includes the Tampa area), as track errors are still in the 40-50 mile range at 30-36 hours before landfall. Having said that, a direct hit on the Tampa/St. Pete area is certainly a bit less likely than it was yesterday. On the other hand, areas from Englewood to Ft. Myers now are at greater risk of landfall and catastrophic wind/surge damage. See the usual track map and a zoomed in version of the track map for just Florida.
After landfall, Milton is forecast to cross the FL peninsula, weakening to a Cat 2 storm about halfway across the peninsula (near Lake Wales, a good ~35 miles south of Orlando) and further weakening to a Cat 1 storm (~85 mph) upon exiting into the Atlantic, near Melbourne, which is also south of earlier forecasts with Daytona to Port St. Lucie still being in the track cone. Obviously, hurricane conditions will be very likely for a large swath of central Florida from the Gulf to the Atlantic, although they'll clearly be more severe along the Gulf and much less severe along the Atlantic.
Given significant southward track shift since yesterday, the surge forecast has been updated to expand the worst surge further southward with 8-12' of surge now forecast from Englewood to Bonita Beach (including Ft. Myers) and even 5-8' of surge now likely from Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee (including Naples/Marco Island). The surge forecast of 10-15' from the Anclote River to Englewood, including Tampa Bay hasn't changed, but realistically, with a track ~20 miles south of Tampa, that forecast will likely be decreased somewhat, although I'm sure the NHC doesn't want to do that until they're absolutely sure the storm won't hit Tampa. Anywhere that sees storm surges over 5-6' will likely see substantial to catastrophic damage (Tampa saw 7' of surge in Helene and that caused widespread major to catastrophic damage). Obviously, the wind damage will be major to catastrophic especially along/near the coast and even inland a ways, with widespread downed trees/power lines and associated power outages and some major structural damage, especially near the coast.
Lastly, the rainfall forecast continues to show widespread 8-12" amounts - and locally 12-16" amounts - are likely for much of central Florida near and maybe 50-75 miles north of the track (due to interactions with the approaching front; this is unusual, as typically more rain falls south of a hurricane's track) with 4-8" well north of the track and just to the south of the track, as per the graphic below. There is clearly the risk of catastrophic inland flooding in areas that get more than 8" of rain (and especially up to 16"), while major flooding will be widespread throughout areas getting over 6" of rain. And a reminder that we're likely to see numerous small tornadoes, along and south of the storm's track across the state.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...ida-forecast-storm-surge-wind-damage-rainfall
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 22.7N 87.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.8N 86.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 25.6N 84.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 27.2N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 28.1N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0600Z 28.6N 77.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/1800Z 29.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1800Z 30.6N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z 31.8N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
I also assume its a public messaging situation. But those storm surge levels in Tampa and especially parts north are counter to current model runs.11 pm advisory: Milton is at 160 mph/915 mbar, so is a Cat 5 storm still and no real track change from 5 pm, as per the excerpt from the NHC below, meaning the center of the forecast track is still showing landfall around 12-2 am Thursday near Sarasota probably with ~125 mph winds (high end Cat 3, but Cat 4 can't be ruled out). After that the storm is still forecast to track towards Melbourne on the Atlantic coast, becoming a Cat 1 hurricane by the center of the peninsula and remaining Cat 1 through exiting into the Atlantic.
Given that we're now close to 24 hours before landfall with ~30-35 mile error bars on track forecast, the cone now is only from about Tarpon Springs to Cape Coral, so Tampa is still within the cone, but it's becoming a less likely landfall. As a result, the NHC has backed off a bit on surge from Tampa, northward, to 9-13' from the Anclote River to Egmont Key (was 10-15'), but kept the Tampa Bay at 10-15' (not sure why- maybe the angle of approach allows enough of a southerly wind component to push water into the Bay); they also expanded the 10-15' surge forecast south about 15 miles down to Boca Grande (the southern extent was down to Englewood). There was no change to the rainfall forecast.
As an aside, I'm assuming the NHC won't lower the storm surge forecasts for the Tampa area significantly until and unless the forecast confidence in a track at least 10-20 miles south of Tampa Bay is very high; probably not until 12-18 hours before landfall, maybe tomorrow at 11 am. Evacuating "unnecessarily" for a 10-15' storm surge is far less of an issue than dropping the surge forecast now and then having many people not evacuate (or even have some return) and then having the track actually head into TB with 10-15' of surge, causing far more loss of life. Having spent many years doing risk analysis in the chemical industry, one usually doesn't discount a catastrophic risk impact (high severity) until the probability of that risk being realized becomes quite low and we're not there yet, especially since there are still quite a few 18Z models (and a few off-the-presses 0Z models) showing landfall either in Tampa Bay or within 10 miles south of it, so the probability of a Tampa Bay landfall is still too high to lower the surge forecast, IMO.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/082054.shtml?
The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is generally a little north of the model trackers, but follows the actual model predicted cyclone center locations. This is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF model solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 23.4N 86.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.7N 85.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 26.5N 83.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 28.5N 78.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 11/1200Z 29.0N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 29.4N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 30.4N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 31.5N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
We've a home in Palm Coast and heading down sunday
Regarding negative surge, my daughter used to work at Tampa General. For one of the previous hurricanes she sent me a picture of the bay right outside the hospital with no water.
You're welcome. The big risk there is 5-10" of rain, which could produce major flooding, plus if the house is close to the beach and at low elevation, the storm surge is predicted to be 3-5 feet. Good luck.
11 pm advisory: Milton is at 160 mph/915 mbar, so is a Cat 5 storm still and no real track change from 5 pm, as per the excerpt from the NHC below, meaning the center of the forecast track is still showing landfall around 12-2 am Thursday near Sarasota probably with ~125 mph winds (high end Cat 3, but Cat 4 can't be ruled out). After that the storm is still forecast to track towards Melbourne on the Atlantic coast, becoming a Cat 1 hurricane by the center of the peninsula and remaining Cat 1 through exiting into the Atlantic.
Given that we're now close to 24 hours before landfall with ~30-35 mile error bars on track forecast, the cone now is only from about Tarpon Springs to Cape Coral, so Tampa is still within the cone, but it's becoming a less likely landfall. As a result, the NHC has backed off a bit on surge from Tampa, northward, to 9-13' from the Anclote River to Egmont Key (was 10-15'), but kept the Tampa Bay at 10-15' (not sure why- maybe the angle of approach allows enough of a southerly wind component to push water into the Bay); they also expanded the 10-15' surge forecast south about 15 miles down to Boca Grande (the southern extent was down to Englewood). There was no change to the rainfall forecast.
As an aside, I'm assuming the NHC won't lower the storm surge forecasts for the Tampa area significantly until and unless the forecast confidence in a track at least 10-20 miles south of Tampa Bay is very high; probably not until 12-18 hours before landfall, maybe tomorrow at 11 am. Evacuating "unnecessarily" for a 10-15' storm surge is far less of an issue than dropping the surge forecast now and then having many people not evacuate (or even have some return) and then having the track actually head into TB with 10-15' of surge, causing far more loss of life. Having spent many years doing risk analysis in the chemical industry, one usually doesn't discount a catastrophic risk impact (high severity) until the probability of that risk being realized becomes quite low and we're not there yet, especially since there are still quite a few 18Z models (and a few off-the-presses 0Z models) showing landfall either in Tampa Bay or within 10 miles south of it, so the probability of a Tampa Bay landfall is still too high to lower the surge forecast, IMO.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/082054.shtml?
The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is generally a little north of the model trackers, but follows the actual model predicted cyclone center locations. This is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF model solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 23.4N 86.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.7N 85.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 26.5N 83.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 28.5N 78.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 11/1200Z 29.0N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 29.4N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 30.4N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 31.5N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
I think I remember that one. They were predicting a big surge for that one too. And it played out the exact opposite.
