OT: 2024 Atlantic Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC Say Very Active Season; Rafael Likely to be a TS when it hits the Northern Gulf Coast on 11/10
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Yeah, the NHC forecast has the track center pointed in that direction, but at this point, as per the models and the NHC, everywhere from TX to FL is in play, especially given the quite high uncertainty at this point, as per the NHC discussion this morning...
Given the lack of a well-defined center, the initial motion is
rather uncertain. My best estimate is slowly northward, or 360/6
kt. Over the next few days, the system should move generally
northwestward on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
pressure system near and east of the Florida peninsula. Later in
the forecast period, the track guidance diverges significantly,
with the latest ECMWF and U.K. Met office model predictions well to
the southwest of most of the other guidance tracks. The motion
during the latter part of the period is partially dependent on how
much the mid-level subtropical ridge to the northeast is eroded by
the upstream flow and how strong and vertically deep the tropical
cyclone will become. The details of this evolution are not well
known at this time. In any event it should be noted that, given the
uncertainty in the center location, there is greater than usual
uncertainty in the track forecast.
The FL peninsula is looking safe, but everywhere from the FL Panhandle to east Texas is definitely in play, with somewhere in Louisiana looking most likely.
Some are citing Hurricane Ida (the one in 2009) as a good analog for Rafael. Ida was a hurricane in the northern Caribbean/southern GOM, but was weakened considerably by westerly shear from a strong trough, similar to what's expected for Rafael, and made landfall as a TS near Mobile AL on 11/10/2009. Would be nice if this one turned out like Ida, which wasn't terribly damaging.
https://www.weather.gov/mob/Ida2009
Maybe not down there, but up here Ida wreaked some serious havoc. I know you meant otherwise, but please let this one be nothing like Ida.
You're thinking of Ida in 2021, whose remnants produced incredible flooding in NJ/NY. I was talking about 2009 Ida, as I mentioned.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ida
Here is a link to some of the information I see at work (hope link works).
go.everstream.ai
5 Minute Forecast
As expected Rafael became a TS at 5 pm yesterday and has slowly intensified to a 60 mph TS since then. The storm will brush Jamaica as a strong TS late tonight, then hit the Cayman Islands as a near hurricane tomorrow afternoon and then will strike western Cuba Weds morning as a likely Cat 1 hurricane (Cat 2 is possible as conditions are favorable for further strengthening for the next 2-3 days).We now have potential tropical cyclone #18 in the Caribbean, which will likely become TS Rafael soon and the NHC forecast track takes it into the Gulf of Mexico strengthening into a weak hurricane near Cuba, but then weakening as it heads further north due to anticipated shear, but as per the NHC discussion, the error bars are pretty high on this one, both with regard to track and intensity, although the northern Gulf Coast (TX to FL) seems to be the area of greatest risk of landfall.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 13.0N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 04/0600Z 14.3N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 04/1800Z 16.0N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 17.7N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 19.6N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 21.5N 82.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 23.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 25.4N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 26.9N 88.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
After that Rafael will enter the GOM and head mostly NW, but will eventually encounter strong westerly shear from an approaching major trough (and dry air entrainment) and is forecast to weaken considerably before landfall, which will likely (NHC forecast doesn't go out that far) be as a weakening tropical storm somewhere between east TX and the western tip of the FL Panhandle, with Louisiana looking most likely, probably by Monday. It's quite possible the shear will shred Rafael completely before landfall, which would be the best case outcome. Regardless, the likely biggest impact from Rafael will be heavy, but likely not torrential, flooding rains across much of the Gulf coast and inland. We may get some moisture from Rafael's remnants feeding a separate low pressure system, which could give us our first measurable rains in 40+ days for most late on Sunday into Monday (nothing huge, but needed rain).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 17.8N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 19.4N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 21.3N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 23.2N 83.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 25.1N 85.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 25.6N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 26.8N 89.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 28.0N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
I know it's way too early but a storm bringing rain across a large section after landfall, maybe a chance to put a dent in our drought at the cost of a disaster across the Louisiana gulf coast.
I have no idea why people deny that global warming is changing the worlds weather for the worse!
I have no idea why people deny that global warming is changing the worlds weather for the worse!
