Debated starting a thread on this for the past couple of days, but since it's been getting some play in the media, figured it was time to start one, especially since many are touting this as a big snowstorm. While a big snowstorm for the I-95 corridor is still possible, it's looking very unlikely; the more likely scenario is a bit of initial snow, followed by mostly rain for the I-95 corridor (maybe ending as snow, as more cold air comes in); well inland would be some snow, still followed by rain in this scenario.
Models over the last day or two were snowier than last night's model runs (or this morning's - although only some of the models run at 6Z) and in the weather game, the most recent runs should be more accurate, as one is closer to the event, with less time for errors to propagate - although having said that, the pieces of energy that will eventually form a storm over the Gulf states, which then turns north (either inland or along the coast), are still offshore and not well sampled, meaning data sparse initial conditions fed into the models, which means high uncertainty - which is why a major snowstorm can't be 100% ruled out right now.
As is often the case 4-5 days before the event starts, model spread is quite high, showing solutions from a cutter that goes west of the Apps (would be all rain, even for interior sections and even for New England/NY ski resorts) to a coastal hugger that comes right up the coast (a few inches of snow to mostly rain for I-95 with more snow than rain well inland, like the Poconos/NW NJ/Hudson Valley). Our "problems" with regard to not getting much snow are both the likely inland track, as well as the lack of cold air.
This may sound a bit like what we had earlier this week with snow to freezing rain and then rain, but the big difference is we don't have very cold air in place at the start - the cold air at the start is marginal for snow, meaning there could be some initial snow (if we get the coastal hugger track), followed by a quick transition to rain, unlike this week, where the cold air held on stubbornly and we had ice after the snow.
We then have the opposite case with next week's storm. Fresh cold air may arrive late in the storm (this week's storm had a huge surge of warm air at the end), changing the rain back to snow, but this type of scenario often doesn't pan out, as the precip often dries up before it's cold enough for snow on the back end.
Also, there is the chance of a rain to snow minor event Sunday night into Monday morning. Looking mostly wet for I-95 with maybe a bit of snow at the end, but this could still change to bring an inch or so of snow to I-95 if enough cold air arrives (and a few inches well N/W of I-95).
Here are some of the usual links...
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47755-february-2016-forecastsdiscoobs/page-24
Original thread title was: "Winter storm Tues (2/23) thru Thurs (2/25) - tornado watch/severe t-storms Weds night" - changed 3/1...
Models over the last day or two were snowier than last night's model runs (or this morning's - although only some of the models run at 6Z) and in the weather game, the most recent runs should be more accurate, as one is closer to the event, with less time for errors to propagate - although having said that, the pieces of energy that will eventually form a storm over the Gulf states, which then turns north (either inland or along the coast), are still offshore and not well sampled, meaning data sparse initial conditions fed into the models, which means high uncertainty - which is why a major snowstorm can't be 100% ruled out right now.
As is often the case 4-5 days before the event starts, model spread is quite high, showing solutions from a cutter that goes west of the Apps (would be all rain, even for interior sections and even for New England/NY ski resorts) to a coastal hugger that comes right up the coast (a few inches of snow to mostly rain for I-95 with more snow than rain well inland, like the Poconos/NW NJ/Hudson Valley). Our "problems" with regard to not getting much snow are both the likely inland track, as well as the lack of cold air.
This may sound a bit like what we had earlier this week with snow to freezing rain and then rain, but the big difference is we don't have very cold air in place at the start - the cold air at the start is marginal for snow, meaning there could be some initial snow (if we get the coastal hugger track), followed by a quick transition to rain, unlike this week, where the cold air held on stubbornly and we had ice after the snow.
We then have the opposite case with next week's storm. Fresh cold air may arrive late in the storm (this week's storm had a huge surge of warm air at the end), changing the rain back to snow, but this type of scenario often doesn't pan out, as the precip often dries up before it's cold enough for snow on the back end.
Also, there is the chance of a rain to snow minor event Sunday night into Monday morning. Looking mostly wet for I-95 with maybe a bit of snow at the end, but this could still change to bring an inch or so of snow to I-95 if enough cold air arrives (and a few inches well N/W of I-95).
Here are some of the usual links...
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47755-february-2016-forecastsdiscoobs/page-24
Original thread title was: "Winter storm Tues (2/23) thru Thurs (2/25) - tornado watch/severe t-storms Weds night" - changed 3/1...
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