OT: Cold and Potentially Stormy (Snowy?) Pattern for 2nd half of January

[R1766U]

Thursday into Friday looking at some potential for ice storm?

 

[RU848789]

Ok Snowstradamus, what sort of weather pattern do you see for the next few weeks?

Well, the cold pattern looks to be on its way to verifying below normal temps for the 2nd half of January, as temps, so far, combined with the forecast temps through 1/31 will put the 2nd half of the month at about 3-4F below normal. This would clearly put that timeframe in the bottom 1/3 of January average temps (2.7F below normal is the cutoff for being in the coldest 1/3 of Januarys), i.e., it would be considered "below normal."

However, as has been pretty obvious, so far, snowfall for the 95 corridor, as represented by New Brunswick, has not been above normal yet, as we've had 2 chances so far, for snow, and both underperformed. The 1/16 event only gave NB about 0.8" and today's gave 0.2", so that's 1.0" so far vs. the 5.0" NB would get for the 2nd half of January if it was a top quartile January in snowfall.

That's 4" to go and while that's doable in a decent storm, the storm for Saturday has trended from a potential significant event to a non-event and there are no obvious storms in the next 5-6 days. There is something on some model runs for the 1/28-29 timeframe, but that's too far out to really consider. So the snow part isn't looking great at this time, but there's still time to go. It should also be noted that a "snowier than normal" pattern was the thought for the eastern US and large parts of the eastern US have already had well above normal snowfalls for the 2nd half of Jan, but not the 95 corridor in our area, so the pattern has delivered, but just not for us.

Lastly, this will lkely make some posters happy: the long range models indicate a likely pattern flip by early February and the CPC came out with their forecast for February and that forecast is for a warmer than normal pattern, due to a likely persistent trough in the PacNW and ridge in the SE US (opposite of what we have now), as influenced by La Nina, plus a pattern with normal precip amounts. Just like a cold pattern doesn't guarantee snow, a warm pattern doesn't guarantee below average snowfall.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/

Biggest mid-range signal this winter for a major winter storm for our area. The 1/16 event had an occasional run or two in days 7-9 showing a big storm (mostly on the Euro), but I don't think we ever saw more than 1 model at a time showing that and by the time I started the thread at 4+ days out, it was already looking wetter than white for 95/coast.

For this one, we've seen all 3 (Euro, GFS and CMC; UK only goes out 6 days) of the mid-range models showing some version of a major winter storm for the east coast over the past 2 days (we're at day 7+ now), although not on every run, but still it's a much stronger signal than for 1/16, which turned out to be a helluva winter storm for many - just not for most of us. When I say these models are showing a major storm, note that these runs show different details on who gets snow/rain and how much, although some outputs are snowmageddon for anywhere from GA to ME - and one model showed 6" of snow in the FL Panhandle, which I don't think I've ever seen before. But the only point of model runs at this stage is to see if there's a signal for a significant storm and there is - might not pan out, but the anticipation on the weather boards is the highest I've seen since Jan-16, this far out.

Models are also starting to see some chance of a minor/moderate clipper event next Tues/Weds. Could be a 1-2"/2-4" kind of event if some models are correct, with snow being heaviest north of 195 or maybe N of 78 (most of the precip will be north of the path, which could come close to CNJ). And the CFS long range forecast just said "not so fast" to the idea of a warm February. Will have to see on that one...

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2046-weather-pattern-storm-threat-discussion-winter-21-22/page/289/

So, where are we headed? Honestly, I'm not really sure, although it does seem pretty clear that the next 2 weeks are not going to be nearly as warm as the CPC forecast was calling for for February about 10 days ago, as per the CFS forecast from last week, above. And Lee Goldberg, today, said it's looking like any significant warm-up will be delayed until at least mid-February, plus some of the longer range models are showing a possible setup for wintry weather systems starting about a week from now (some models are showing a classic nor'easter next Monday possibly bringing snow for most and at least 1 or 2 chances beyond that.

But no matter what the next week looks like a rollercoaster with some warmer temps the next couple of days - punctuated with a chance of some light freezing fog early Weds am, which could glaze the roads with ice, - a major winter storm that looks like it will crush the northern tier from Buffalo to Maine and possibly much further south (all the way down to 84) with a foot or more of snow on Thursday/Friday and a couple of models are even showing enough cold air coming in on Friday to give the northern parts of our area some freezing rain, sleet and then snow, with the freezing rain scenario being especially concerning. Could also be some heavy rain (1-2") in most scenarios (even if a changeover later), which, along with melting, could create some urban/stream flooding. Could be thread worthy shortly - let's see what tonight's 0Z models say.

And after that it gets very cold this weekend and as mentioned above we have another opportunity for a winter storm to affect our area on Monday.

 

[RU848789]

So with the storm over the weekend I figure #s can officially say to the weather trolls:

I told you so

I guess I could do that, but I'd far rather just have people be civil and not troll to begin with and I think if I were to gloat and spike the football, it would be counterproductive, so I think I'll just stick to the weather/data.

 

[RU848789]

Thursday into Friday looking at some potential for ice storm?

Yes, there is certainly risk of freezing rain and icing, especially N of 80, as the cold front comes through while it's still precipitating late Thursday/early Friday, This has some similarities to the busted minor snowfall from 1/20, as both had/have "anafront" characteristics, where there is significant cooling and precip (frozere of some sort in this case) behind the front, but the precip often shuts off before much frozen falls - however, this one has much more precip potential (1-2" vs. 0.3-.4" for the 1/20 system).

But as I just said in my other post, the models range from all rain for everyone south of 84 to mostly rain finishing as a bit of snow/sleet/freezing rain, especially N of 80 to significant rain followed by significant frozen precip even down to 95 (only the GFS shows that). Normally, I wouldn't start a thread for mostly rain, but since that rain could lead to some flooding (with melting) and since there is some risk of freezing rain near the end of the storm in most of the models, I'll likely start a thread on this after the 0Z models tonight, as we'll be within 3 days at that point.