I have no idea why you get so wound up about pattern threads. I've also expressed a fair amount of skepticism in them beyond 15 days, also (and especially beyond 20 days), but I do think the 7-15 day timeframe has been predicted pretty well most of the time I've shared these pattern threads - and to be clear, these are not my predictions at all, as I have no skill in long range forecasting - I'm just sharing what other experts say. You snarking about these posts is akin to me snarking about predictions on the NCAA tourney in your threads (which I never do).
I just think it's interesting to see how these predictions play out and I imagine some other people do too - if you don't like them, maybe don't read them. However, as I think we agree on, they're certainly nowhere near as accurate as the forecasts up to 7 days and I agree the 33andrain board has gotten too caught up in long range/teleconnection forecasting. I didn't think my sharing a bit of that here was a big deal though - it's not like I share all the stuff I see there or even a lot of it.
My only "forecast" in these is deciding when to share one of these pattern forecasts and I usually share them when about 3-4 of my favorite long-range folks agree on the pattern. And as I posted in detail earlier in the thread 7 of 9 of these "colder and snowier than normal" pattern forecasts for days 7-15 or so have verified. The one on 12/20/18 for the first 2 weeks in January was one of those 2 busts, though, and it busted badly and the current one verified for cold, but not for snow, so that makes 7 for 10, which isn't bad when considering the odds of randomly guessing cold and snowy and it verifying is 1 in 9 (out of 2 parameters, i.e., temp and snow, and 3 outcomes for each, i..e, above normal, below normal and normal)
The most recent pattern forecast that others made, which I shared on 1/12/19 for the 2nd half of January verified quite nicely for colder than normal temps in our area as both NB and NYC averaged about 5F colder than normal for 1/16-1/31; usually colder than normal is about 2-3F colder than normal (depends who you ask, but 5F colder is well below normal for a 2 week period). Also, this cold pattern featured two extremely cold outbreaks that set some records in the area, so it's not like it was just cool out. And this pattern verified as colder than normal for the whole northeast/mid-Atlantic as expected.
However, clearly, the cold pattern didn't produce above average snowfall in most of CNJ/NNJ/NYC, along the 95 corridor and the coast and some ways inland of 95, as places like Trenton, NB, NYC, Somerville, Asbury Park, Boston, etc. all had below normal snowfall for that 2-week period. However, much of the rest of the NE/mid-Atlantic had average to above average snowfall for that period. For example, as close by as Allentown got 7.0", Andover got 10" and areas from the Poconos to the Catskills to almost all of interior NY and New England got above average snowfall. And much of the mid-Atlantic had a huge storm earlier in the month (1/13, which at least verified them for above average snowfall in the first half of the month).
The point is, yes, snowfall was a bust for most of the folks on this board in CNJ/NNJ/NYC, but the pattern did deliver above average snowfall for most of the NE US. And that happens sometimes, despite being colder than normal, as predicting snowfall is far, far harder than predicting temps, as everything has to line up favorably to get snow for the 95 corridor.
With regard to February, I thought it would be cold through the first week in Feburary, when, in fact, it was only colder than normal for the first 3 days (~9F below normal for those days, which is quite cold), so not that far off - the warmth starting today was a surprise, though, to all the long range folks and it'll be well above normal until Friday for the most part. However, I never made a post about February like I did about the 2nd half of January, as I obviously didn't have that high of confidence or I would've made a detailed post or new thread.
Looking ahead, some of the same pros who called the cold and potentially snowy pattern for the NE US (which did largely verify when looking across the whole NE) are calling for another colder and potentially snowier pattern from about 2/9 through the end of February, given the predicted MJO phases and teleconnections; however, some are not nearly as optimistic, predicting more seasonable temps and snow, so it'll be interesting to see which way this one goes. Since I mostly just post for Philly-NJ-NYC, I'm reluctant to jump on board either way yet, as the snow just hasn't been delivered yet in both pattern calls I shared with the board, so far this year, so I'll wait a bit to see if it looks like that pattern will materialize. There are indications, however, of a pretty active/stormy pattern from 2/11-2/14, at least, with the potential for wintry precip for the area - way too far out to predict anything though.
Finally, a really good article on how much numerical weather predictions have improved over the last 40 years was just published in Science. It details how today's 5-day forecasts are as accurate as 1-day forecasts in 1980 and how today's 72-hour hurricane track forecasts are as accurate as 24-hour track forecasts in 1980. In addition, the article highlights how well this most recent cold/snowy pattern (for the midwest/northeast, overall, if not for snow for the 95 corridor), especially the brutally cold polar vortex part, was predicted several weeks in advance, as I've outlined in this thread. The article also details the value of improved forecasting: "A 2009 study, for example, found that the value of weather forecasts to U.S. households is US$31.5 billion, from public expenditures of just US$3.4 billion and private expenditures of US$1.7 billion." This article is probably worth a separate thread, instead of being buried on page whatever of this thread.
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6425/342
https://www.theatlantic.com/science...r-vortex-weather-forecasting-good-now/581605/
