I am going with the November climo theory. I admit it played a role in my planning and I screwed up.Here's what I posted on 33andrain in response to basically the same post I made above. Lots of good discussion about it going on...
So, in light of the massive bust from the NWS (and I love those guys, but a bust is a bust) and every major media source I saw, especially for the 95 corridro, I go back to this post and I say to myself, ok, I guess they missed badly on all 3 factors that might've made them underpredict the snowfall:
Would love to know what went on in those meetings at the NWS, where they clearly saw the Euro consistently churning out 4-8" snowfalls (at 10:1 ratios) for Philly to NYC along/near I-95 - from what I recall the Euro was consistent on that for the last 3 days. Furthemore, they saw the NAM over the previous 24-36 hours before the storm consistently showing significant snowfalls for the 95 corridor (except for the Ferrier algorithm for the 3 km NAM, which obviously needs some tweaking, lol). The new GFS (FV3) was also quite snowy for the 95 corridor.
- Very low snow ratios of 4-5:1 (nope, they looked like 10:1 to me),
- Much of the frozen precip falling as sleet (nope, it was mostly snow)
- Significant melting of the early part of the snowfall (nope, it accumulated from the get-go - I know I got that one right)
The Euro is the best global model, as everyone knows, and the NAM has performed quite well in very energetic coastal storms over the past several years. If I recall correctly, only the GFS (the old one) was consistently showing only an inch or two of snow for the 95 corridor and we know that's not the best model (apart from Jan-15 - totally different setup, though). Did everyone really follow the GFS or was it simply a case of massive groupthink around climo, assuming it just couldn't snow that much in mid-Nov (despite recent history to the contrary on 10/29/11)? I'd just love to know. Wonder if the NWS will do an "after action review" to look at what happened. Thoughts? Maybe this should be a separate thread...
The fact of the matter is, if they treated yesterday's forecast as if it was in December, we would've had half of what happened yesterday. 5 hours of traffic is not "a little traffic". Nobody is reporting on this as if this was a major crisis. Guess what, it was. When Georgia had what happened to them, it was at the top of CNN homepage and they're not equipped to handle snow, we are. Not one media outlet is demanding accountability. It's so strange. At least when Christie and Bloomberg were around, they would recognize emergencies as they were happening and setup a command center and make hourly reports. Where were the Govs and DeBlasio? They just shrugged it off. My sister literally peed in her car seat because she was stuck on the FDR for 5 hours without moving an inch. I could only imagine how many medical emergencies are not being reported by the local news either. They are barely addressing a thing. We've had worse storms than this. If they prepared for 4 inches as NWS was forecasting as the max, they would've been prepared. We've had worse than this last year at around the same time of day. They did the same exact thing during the first snow last year. They didn't prep for crap and only sent out plows 5 hours too late. Only they were lucky there was no major accident on the GWB.
Just turned on Good Day NY and they were interviewing the NYC sanitation superintendent who REFUSED to say they were not prepared.
The anchor basically called her a liar. Saying they absolutely were not prepared and there job was to be prepared.
This goes for NJ as well
The fact of the matter is, if they treated yesterday's forecast as if it was in December, we would've had half of what happened yesterday. 5 hours of traffic is not "a little traffic". Nobody is reporting on this as if this was a major crisis. Guess what, it was. When Georgia had what happened to them, it was at the top of CNN homepage and they're not equipped to handle snow, we are. Not one media outlet is demanding accountability. It's so strange. At least when Christie and Bloomberg were around, they would recognize emergencies as they were happening and setup a command center and make hourly reports. Where were the Govs and DeBlasio? They just shrugged it off. My sister literally peed in her car seat because she was stuck on the FDR for 5 hours without moving an inch. I could only imagine how many medical emergencies are not being reported by the local news either. They are barely addressing a thing. We've had worse storms than this. If they prepared for 4 inches as NWS was forecasting as the max, they would've been prepared. We've had worse than this last year at around the same time of day. They did the same exact thing during the first snow last year. They didn't prep for crap and only sent out plows 5 hours too late. Only they were lucky there was no major accident on the GWB.
Is this your 4x4?This was worse than times when I traveled in 34 inches of snow.
Texted my mom saying I was working from home.
She sent back a picture of her and her coworkers/teachers who had slept at a West Orange middle school saying "Get to work. We are already at work!"
Woah be me. Your sister and all complaining should try living in a midsize Toyota like I've been since October 27th . Actually in lucky i estimate hundreds living on the street and homeless just in the small Somerville area alone. There are many living in the train stations up both the Raritan valley and Northeast corridor lines. If sis is into the golden shower thing i oft have plenty of time in the overnight...
If
Woah be me. Your sister and all complaining should try living in a midsize Toyota like I've been since October 27th . Actually in lucky i estimate hundreds living on the street and homeless just in the small Somerville area alone. There are many living in the train stations up both the Raritan valley and Northeast corridor lines. If sis is into the golden shower thing i oft have plenty of time in the overnight...
If
they have private forecasters who tell them the weather...they ****ed up...all of them did.
99% of people dont follow weather boards or pay attention to anything other than what Lonnie Quinn or Lee Goldberg tells them on the nightly forecast or a quick glance at weather.com
the peoples who job this is to have done better is the nws and other meteorologists
I will probably get blasted for bring "politics" into it, but I can't help but feel that many of these towns are under so much pressure to control their budgets in other operating areas because police and teacher salaries are so high, they rolled the dice on yesterday's storms because they knew spending significant storm money in November means their snow removal budget will likely run out in February.Again they had information up here from NWS that worse case scenario was 4 inches of snow. If they had prepared for that they would've handled it better and roads wouldn't have blocked for emergency personnel to get where they're needed. In December to March, they brine the roads the night before most instances, but because it's November they didn't. Just because it's November doesn't make the snow or road conditions different. There was snow forecast since last week and upto 3 inches forecast since Monday which turned into 4-5 inches forecast Wednesday night. Maybe they were off guard, maybe they wanted to save a buck and logistical headache.
Out here in eastern PA the schools closed by noon, yet not a plow on the road from 2-4 when the roads were empty and piling up with snow, then the same disaster during evening rush as NJ.Part of the issue was that when everyone is clogging the roads after 2 pm it becomes much harder for the crews to do their jobs...much harder..everyone went to work which normally doesnt happen when it snows 1-2 inches an hour which it did between 2-4pm. Mets blew it big time because the public treated it as a regula day and minor event. Could the state have done better..probably but everyones anger should go toward forecastera...and absolutely loathe Murphy and every single thing this fake man stands for but im not blaming him here
If sis is into the golden shower thing i oft have plenty of time in the overnight...
Not one media outlet is demanding accountability. It's so strange.
We should be like the south. Shut it all down when snow is forecasted. Soooo much money saved.I will probably get blasted for bring "politics" into it, but I can't help but feel that many of these towns are under so much pressure to control their budgets in other operating areas because police and teacher salaries are so high, they rolled the dice on yesterday's storms because they knew spending significant storm money in November means their snow removal budget will likely run out in February.
Sounds like this storm hit the bullseye in terms of timing to turn the area into a nightmare. Had this storm hit after or before work hours or on a weekend this would have been a nonissue.
The morning report I saw said 1-3 with most getting rain. Snow was forecasted north west of NY. We had 3” by 3pm. It was also supposed to change over to rain last night / this morning. It didn’t, more snow.But north jersey and NYC NWS had the forecast up to at least 4 to 5 inches the night before. No excuses there. All the traffic started there and extended outward to the rt 80's 78's and 280's and 95. They had the forecast. They knew it would start around 1 or 2. They had plenty of time from Wednesday night until 1 pm to make moves.
Well you would be wrong, then.We should be like the south. Shut it all down when snow is forecasted. Soooo much money saved.
Somehow I see you blasting the towns for over preparing as mismanagement if we only got 1-3 inches.
Last week I sold one michigan purple for $100 both buyers said it was very cheap$150 for a Purple Lot pass? You hit the lottery.
But north jersey and NYC NWS had the forecast up to at least 4 to 5 inches the night before. No excuses there. All the traffic started there and extended outward to the rt 80's 78's and 280's and 95. They had the forecast. They knew it would start around 1 or 2. They had plenty of time from Wednesday night until 1 pm to make moves.
Last week I sold one michigan purple for $100 both buyers said it was very cheap
compared to stub hub.
Not for me. I checked both for bergen county and nyc and both said up to 4 inches on Wednesday night. I saw it up to 5 inches earlier in the day Wednesday. If you look up specific zip codes they actually give you different amounts. I was checking every hour for two zip codes for three days straight. It started as up to 1 inch then gradually moved up to 2 inches on tuedsay. On wednesday night it jumped up again. NYC I saw anywhere from 1 - 3" with it peaking at 4 the night before. In my town, it read up to 5 or 6" and we are not inland towards the northwest. At any rate, if it says 1 - 3" for during the day it means between the time they say it starts (around 1 pm) to 7 pm. Not as bad but definitely enough to cause problems during rush hour. They usually get started before noon when the forecast says it will start around 1 PM. And the snow started closer to 2 pm a full hour later.