OT: First winter storm end of week?

[RU4Real]

I know Gary and he's a very good met, but I doubt he would've prevented this bust, as Mt. Holly still had some bad ones over the years under his watch (Sandy was the worst). Check the weather boards - some really great pros out there who are kicking themselves, since they saw the models but couldn't bring themselves to pull the trigger on more snow in the forecast - groupthink at play a bit, IMO.

Sorry, I know we've had this conversation before, but Gary didn't bust Sandy. The information he was giving the emergency management orgs here in Monmouth County in the 72 hours leading up to the storm was absolutely flawless. When I started posting, here, that Sandy would be what it ultimately was it was because Gary told me.

 

[Plum Street]

6" in Central Park and it ain't over; this makes this the second snowiest November day in NYC history, only beat by 11/29/1882 when 9" fell. That record should still stand, I think.

Numbers , are you shoveling? Or will the rain and sun tomorrow melt it away?

 

[retired711]

No shit? Wow, if true that's infuriating

No, see RU #s post above. Forecasters are justified in looking at more than what the models show. For instance, the models tell you how much snow will fall from the sky, but are not good at telling you how much will actually accumulate on the ground. Again, RU#s can explain this much better than I can. In addition, the idea of a serious snow storm in mid-November is so unusual that the forecasters had a point in not believing the models.

This does show something more important. Often, the National Weather Service and media forecasts are criticized for hyping storms that turn out to be not much. But overpredicting a storm is much less dangerous than underpredicting one. As today shows, the consequence of undepredicting is to create very dangerous traffic conditions for everyone who thought they'd have little trouble getting home today. So overprediction in the face of uncertainty is a good idea.

 

[RU848789]

Numbers , are you shoveling? Or will the rain and sun tomorrow melt it away?

Already shoveled. If you have more than 3-4" and get 1/2" of rain later, that rain will likely just be absorbed into the snow pack, rather than washing it away, especially since temps won't be getting above 40F in most places. Will just mean even more weight to shovel later. Unless you want to wait 2-3 days, lol.

 

[RU848789]

No, see RU #s post above. Forecasters are justified in looking at more than what the models show. For instance, the models tell you how much snow will fall from the sky, but are not good at telling you how much will actually accumulate on the ground. Again, RU#s can explain this much better than I can. In addition, the idea of a serious snow storm in mid-November is so unusual that the forecasters had a point in not believing the models.

This does show something more important. Often, the National Weather Service and media forecasts are criticized for hyping storms that turn out to be not much. But overpredicting a storm is much less dangerous than underpredicting one. As today shows, the consequence of undepredicting is to create very dangerous traffic conditions for everyone who thought they'd have little trouble getting home today. So overprediction in the face of uncertainty is a good idea.

Maybe the best post in the thread. Perfectly said. Overpredicting annoys people, but underpredicting has huge impacts on people who aren't prepared. I like just trying to be right and I think the NWS could've done that if they had just ignored climo at least a bit and looked at the models and that anomalously strong cold high pressure to our NE, which locked the cold air in much more than some expected.

 

[Ronnie_B]

No, see RU #s post above. Forecasters are justified in looking at more than what the models show. For instance, the models tell you how much snow will fall from the sky, but are not good at telling you how much will actually accumulate on the ground. Again, RU#s can explain this much better than I can. In addition, the idea of a serious snow storm in mid-November is so unusual that the forecasters had a point in not believing the models.

This does show something more important. Often, the National Weather Service and media forecasts are criticized for hyping storms that turn out to be not much. But overpredicting a storm is much less dangerous than underpredicting one. As today shows, the consequence of undepredicting is to create very dangerous traffic conditions for everyone who thought they'd have little trouble getting home today. So overprediction in the face of uncertainty is a good idea.

Damn, you quoted me before I made my edit. I took out the infuriating remark, I'm listening to the ice hit the windows and I know am in a shoveling job from hell. And Thanksgiving is still a ****ing week away.

 

[retired711]

Already shoveled. If you have more than 3-4" and get 1/2" of rain later, that rain will likely just be absorbed into the snow pack, rather than washing it away, especially since temps won't be getting above 40F in most places. Will just mean even more weight to shovel later. Unless you want to wait 2-3 days, lol.

Even though it is supposed to be in the 40s (at least in South Jersey) and partly cloudy tomorrow? My snow guy -- I am not up to shoveling myself -- said he didn't want to come today because there would be no accumulation, and my e-mail to him that "we're certainly have an accumulation!" drew no response. He usually is very good so this surprises me. All the same, I am hoping that tomorrow (Friday's) weather clears this stuff out -- what do you think?

 

[RU848789]

Sorry, I know we've had this conversation before, but Gary didn't bust Sandy. The information he was giving the emergency management orgs here in Monmouth County in the 72 hours leading up to the storm was absolutely flawless. When I started posting, here, that Sandy would be what it ultimately was it was because Gary told me.

I can't comment on what he was telling emergency managers, but I absolutely know the NWS blew it badly on their official storm surge forecasts, as per Bryan Norcross's article on this, which I've posted before. Dredging up Sandy posts will get us into a spat not worth going into, IMO - we've done pretty well "not going there" for quite awhile.

 

[RU848789]

Even though it is supposed to be in the 40s (at least in South Jersey) and partly cloudy tomorrow? My snow guy -- I am not up to shoveling myself -- said he didn't want to come today because there would be no accumulation, and my e-mail to him that "we're certainly have an accumulation!" drew no response. He usually is very good so this surprises me. All the same, I am hoping that tomorrow (Friday's) weather clears this stuff out -- what do you think?

Well, you're supposed to have things cleared by the next morning, so that's what I did, as that's much easier now than after the rain adds to the weight. If you can wait until tomorrow night, yeah, a lot more of it can be gone, but you might piss off your neighbors.

 

[Ronnie_B]

Even though it is supposed to be in the 40s (at least in South Jersey) and partly cloudy tomorrow? My snow guy -- I am not up to shoveling myself -- said he didn't want to come today because there would be no accumulation, and my e-mail to him that "we're certainly have an accumulation!" drew no response. He usually is very good so this surprises me. All the same, I am hoping that tomorrow (Friday's) weather clears this stuff out -- what do you think?

I'm a gambling man tonight. If I knew ahead of time what was going to hit us, I'd be out there now. But I need time to mentally prepare myself to shovel.

 

[mikemarc1]

I’m batting 100% with my weather threads.

I start a thread on a long range threat..it happens.

 

[WhiteBus]

I’m batting 100% with my weather threads.

I start a thread on a long range threat..it happens.

See! See what happens! Leave it to bac and numbers! [winking]

 

[R1766U]

Whats tomorrows am commute looking like for Middlesex County

 

[zappaa]

2 hours to go 2 miles

 

[sport2231]

Whats tomorrows am commute looking like for Middlesex County

Normally I wouldn’t worry. But the state seems so unprepared people might still be trying to get home

Seriously. I hope the towns are getting their act together right now and will be out all night. There is a chance for some actual back end snow or freezing rain for some parts of NNJ towards dawn so who knows.

Although after tonight’s circus I would imagine a lot of schools will be delayed and people will stay home so doubt many people will be on road

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

Already 8.5” here in Orange cty...as usual...Upton is chasing its tail...

 

[Knight Shift]

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Looks like a snowy version of REM's Everybody Hurts video:

 

[sport2231]

I’ve got my sister and a coworker now thinking of just trying to park car on side of road and walk to a hotel around West Orange

 

[Abro1975]

Took me 3 1/2 hours to go from my Dentist in Fairfield (had a miserable root canal) to Cedar Grove, about 5 miles. My nerves are shot, just made a big Black Russian .

 

[Ronnie_B]

 

[RUeric]

4.5 hours from Rockland County NY to Clifton. GSP southbound just about impassible at exit 154.

 

[RU848789]

As of 6:45 pm, it's still just 30F here and we have gotten 1/2" of sleet in the 90 minutes since it started sleeting heavily (I cleared the board from the 6.25" of snow at 5:15 pm). That makes sense as sleet is usually a ~3:1 ratio, so 1/2" of sleet is equivalent to about 1.6" of 10:1 snow, which would translate to a little over 1" per hour rates for the last 90 minutes.

We got a total of about 3/4" of sleet, bringing total frozen precip up to 7.0" when added to the 6.25" of snow we had (not 100% sure if kosher to split them into 2 parts, but that's what I got - need to check the snow measurement handbook from the NWS).

Been freezing rain (ZR) for the last 45 minutes or so - we have maybe 1/10th of an inch of glaze on everything. Fortunately, the roads are already covered with snow/slush, so some ZR on top of it doesn't matter much (ZR is much worse directly on roads/sidewalks when things become skating rinks). It's up to 31F here now and on its way up finally (33F reported in NB), so the worst is now close to over here and generally south of 78 and generally almost up to NYC along 95. But it's going to take several more hours to get above 32F anywhere close to 80, especially W of 287.

Precip is not as heavy as it was and only expecting another 1/4" or so in most of CNJ and that's not enough to wash away what we have, so shovel now if you can, so you don't have to shovel even more later (1/4" of rain weighs almost half as much as 6" of "typical" snow and we got typical snow).

9:10 pm edit - finally above freezing - it's 33F here and rising (35F in NB), so the worst is over here. Helluva storm.

 

[RU848789]

View embedded media

Holy crap, that's just nuts, although I kind of get it...

 

[Scarlet_Monster]

How much better would the roads have been if they were pre-treated with that salt brine solution they tend to put down when they know it's going to be bad?

 

[Abro1975]

This is almost comparable to the West Virginia game about 5 years ago, where they honored Eric Legrand, and a bad storm came in and made driving home treacherous.

 

[ScarletStateofNJ]

4.5 hours to get from Jersey city to Summit. It normally take 45mim

 

[sport2231]

How much better would the roads have been if they were pre-treated with that salt brine solution they tend to put down when they know it's going to be bad?

The whole “hype” of a storm creates a dominoe effect. Towns prepare better because he spotlight is on. Roads are preconditioned. Extra staff is on and salt trucks are prepped and ready to go

On top of that, companies and schools are more proactive in getting people home early which keeps people of the roads so crews can do their job

How do you treat and clear a road that has cars bumper to bumper on it?

I’m confident we won’t learn our lesson but this is what happens when you prepare for the best and the worst happens

 

[WhiteBus]

Took me 3 1/2 hours to go from my Dentist in Fairfield (had a miserable root canal) to Cedar Grove, about 5 miles. My nerves are shot, just made a big Black Russian .

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...BMAB6BAgLEAU&usg=AOvVaw107MURkkhXmfCZM_RrEnqn

 

[RULoyal]

Left Clinton at 2:00. Got home to So. Bruns. at 8:45. Aaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!

 

[RUhasarrived]

I knew that the Moon was in Aquarius-the sign of the unusual-so I parked underneath 280 on Wednesday afternoon.The forecasters should have used an Ephemeris.

Trump was elected with the Moon in Aquarius.It's too bad we couldn't schedule all of our games at those times.Schiano loved pulling his trick plays then.

 

[MulletCork]

Took 4 hours 45 minutes to get from Summit to Scotch Plains. Like Zombieland out there. Abandoned cars and people wandering around. What a debacle!

 

[RU848789]

How much better would the roads have been if they were pre-treated with that salt brine solution they tend to put down when they know it's going to be bad?

That really only helps if they plow soon afterwards. The point of the brining before a storm is to form a layer of melted snow (water) under the subsequent snow that will eventually accumulate on the road, which makes it easier to plow. If they're not going to plow in a reasonable timeframe, the impact is minimal, as the brine (or rock salt if that is put down) is nowhere near enough to melt several inches of snow. The idea is to brine, then plow after some snow, then rebrine (or put down solid salt) then replow, repeating as needed.

 

[RUChoppin]

apparently in West Orange, they did not call an early dismissal, so the kids are stuck in the schools. The busses can't get to them.

https://www.woboe.org


"Students at Schools
Students remain safe in their schools. At this time, snacks are being provided as well as activities and entertainment. Busses have been asked to shelter in place. When the West Orange Police Department provides the all clear, those busses will begin their route. Again, all students remain safe. We will continue to provide updates."

 

[RU4Real]

That really only helps if they plow soon afterwards. The point of the brining before a storm is to form a layer of melted snow (water) under the subsequent snow that will eventually accumulate on the road, which makes it easier to plow. If they're not going to plow in a reasonable timeframe, the impact is minimal, as the brine (or rock salt if that is put down) is nowhere near enough to melt several inches of snow. The idea is to brine, then plow after some snow, then rebrine (or put down solid salt) then replow, repeating as needed.

This isn't exactly true.

In most climates (this one included) roads are pretreated because initial snowfalls will tend to undergo an initial melt-refreeze cycle on paved surfaces. Pretreating prevents the initial, underlying layer of ice from forming.

 

[sport2231]

apparently in West Orange, they did not call an early dismissal, so the kids are stuck in the schools. The busses can't get to them.

https://www.woboe.org

Sounds like west orange area is a disaster with 280 being closed around there. My sister just abandoned her car and walked to the bar. She sat in same spot for 3 hours. Coworker has been in same sport for same amount of time

 

[RU848789]

Whats tomorrows am commute looking like for Middlesex County

Depends. Plowed roads should be fine, as temps will be in the mid-30s overnight and another 1/4" (or less) of rain should fall, helping to wash away any residuals. Unplowed roads will remain snow/slush covered as 1/4" of rain (or less) won't be enough to wash snow/slush away and the temps won't be warm enough either. With sunshine and temps near 40F tomorrow, most snow-covered paved surfaces will eventually be ok by noon.

Unless the backside of the storm, associated with the upper level low to our SW, overperforms in the 6-8 am timeframe - this could lead to an hour or two of moderate to heavy snow, generally well NW of here, but some of that snow could make it to the 95 corridor - that could make the morning rush a little tougher. Impossible to predict that outcome right now.

 

[jerzey devil]

Union ave in New Providence has been shut down for the last few hours due to train hitting a car that I believe got stuck on the tracks! Very sad as I believe the driver was seriously injured...Unfortunately, I do not know the extent of the injuries

Update: female driver pronounced dead on arrival at hospital

 

[RUChoppin]

Can't imagine if my kindergarteners were still stuck at school at 9:45 pm.

 

[RUfromNJ]

Wound up turning around to sleep at the office. Stuck in Newark now. 6.5 hrs into this nightmare.

 

[Ronnie_B]

apparently in West Orange, they did not call an early dismissal, so the kids are stuck in the schools. The busses can't get to them.

https://www.woboe.org


"Students at Schools
Students remain safe in their schools. At this time, snacks are being provided as well as activities and entertainment. Busses have been asked to shelter in place. When the West Orange Police Department provides the all clear, those busses will begin their route. Again, all students remain safe. We will continue to provide updates."

Check out the parents comments,they are all mad as hornets and some kids are stuck on a bus for over 3 hours:

https://www.facebook.com/woschools/