OT: First winter storm end of week?

[DJ Spanky]

Snow fall as of 3 PM:

 

[RU848789]

Unlikely, but 2-4" seems like a good call now and seemed like a good call yesterday - I just didn't have the guts to go against the NWS and all the pros, but I was always very uncomfortable with the 1" forecasts, as I kept saying. It'll still change to rain and heavy rain, but later than expected.

Took me 35 min to get home (10 miles, usually a 15-20 min trip) and that was back roads - those poor souls on major highways looked stuck per Google Maps. As of 3 pm the Metuchen snowglobe has received 4.0" of heavy wet snow and it's still snowing heavily - looks like we may actually get that 6", as the snow/rain/sleet line looks like it's still down in Monmouth County - holy crap!

 

[RU4Real]

the snow/rain/sleet line looks like it's still down in Monmouth County - holy crap!

Anomalous indications. Radar currently shows us on the "snow" side of the line by a good 10-15 miles, but it's raining.

 

[TM514]

Im in Mongomery county, Lansdale PA, 25mi NW of Philly, still snowing,@4" on ground and roads treacherous

 

[RU848789]

NB reporting 3" an hour ago, Philly reporting 3" an hour ago and my friend in Medford (NW Burlington Co) has 4" as of 3 pm, so we're likely to see widespread 3-6" along the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC. Exactly what the Euro has been predicting for 3 days now.

 

[Zak57]

The problem is the mets weren't pushing the Euro and a lot of people are going to have a terrible insane commute home now when they could have stayed home.

 

[RU848789]

If this graphic is correct, many of us in CNJ will easily make 6" when the forecast was 1-2".

 

[RU848789]

The problem is the mets weren't pushing the Euro and a lot of people are going to have a terrible insane commute home now when they could have stayed home.

This morning when it was looking like it was going to overperform, I told everyone who gets my email weather reports at work to consider leaving by 1 pm (after checking with their supervisors, of course - don't want to get in trouble, lol). I left at 2:30 pm and it was becoming a mess - people leaving now are going to get crushed.

 

[Knight Shift]

All rain in Wall. Whatever accumulated washed away.

 

[rurichdog]

Been snowing heavily for hours in warehouse district off Exit 8A of the Turnpike. Snow has covered the hill outside my building, trucks can't get up the hill, so we're stuck here for a few hours.

 

[bac2therac]

Hunterdon and Somerset now under Winter Storm Warnings for 4-7 inches

 

[RU848789]

NB reporting 3" an hour ago, Philly reporting 3" an hour ago and my friend in Medford (NW Burlington Co) has 4" as of 3 pm, so we're likely to see widespread 3-6" along the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC. Exactly what the Euro has been predicting for 3 days now.

HRRR predicting 4-6" more in most of CNJ from 2 pm to 8 pm - considering we had about 3" at 2 pm, that would bring me to 7-9" overall. Maybe next time the pros need to not ignore a never-wavering Euro showing 4-8" over the last 3 days for the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC (at least).

 

[InGregITrust]

Took me 35 min to get home (10 miles, usually a 15-20 min trip) and that was back roads - those poor souls on major highways looked stuck per Google Maps. As of 3 pm the Metuchen snowglobe has received 4.0" of heavy wet snow and it's still snowing heavily - looks like we may actually get that 6", as the snow/rain/sleet line looks like it's still down in Monmouth County - holy crap!

Is this the kind of snow that will get washed away with rain or should i actually shovel?

 

[RU848789]

Hunterdon and Somerset now under Winter Storm Warnings for 4-7 inches

Should've done the same for Middlesex/Mercer/Bucks/Montco, where they're predicting 4-6". I get that 6" is a warning, but why split hairs here when sending the message, even late, of a big storm is important (especially when 6" is in reach)? This could be the worst performance by the NWS in a long time.

 

[RUChoppin]

Just moved about 4" or so with my snowblower in the Neshanic area of Hillsborough, and more is coming down. Heavy, wet, kept packing together and clogging the chute.

Our road hasn't seen a plow yet.

 

[bac2therac]

Just moved about 4" or so with my snowblower in the Neshanic area of Hillsborough, and more is coming down. Heavy, wet, kept packing together and clogging the chute.

Our road hasn't seen a plow yet.

and it will not for a while..remember this was forecast maybe a sloppy inch or two to rain for our area. Towns get their forecasts from NWS and private mets and their plans are made based on that. They will be playing catchup to this storm all night...remember it only started snowing at noon.

 

[RU4Real]

Mt. Holly has apparently thrown in the towel. My "Current Conditions" says "Unknown Precip".

 

[bac2therac]

they couldnt even figure out how to get a snowfall prediction map up on their website 25 years after the internet was invented

 

[RU848789]

they couldnt even figure out how to get a snowfall prediction map up on their website 25 years after the internet was invented

lol, you know me well enough to know how much that has pissed me off - emailed them twice about it already....

 

[LevaosLectures]

Took me 2+ hours to get home to Pompton Lakes from Rutgers. Ugh. This storm is definitely over-delivering up here. I will probably need to shovel.

 

[RU848789]

Is this the kind of snow that will get washed away with rain or should i actually shovel?

Well, if we get 6-7", which is very doable and only 1/2-3/4" of rain (less rain now), I think most of it will be absorbed by the snow, so I'd shovel - in fact, I just did. It will be above freezing later and tomorrow so you might be ok, but I don't like leaving it to chance like that.

 

[RU848789]

Took me 35 min to get home (10 miles, usually a 15-20 min trip) and that was back roads - those poor souls on major highways looked stuck per Google Maps. As of 3 pm the Metuchen snowglobe has received 4.0" of heavy wet snow and it's still snowing heavily - looks like we may actually get that 6", as the snow/rain/sleet line looks like it's still down in Monmouth County - holy crap!

As of 4 pm, 5" here in Metuchen and still snowing moderately to heavily, although smalller flakes (had huge flakes earlier). Looks like 6-7" is possible with the snow/rain line looking like it's at the border of Monmouth and Middlesex, at least 1-2 hours away, I think. Just shoveled and I rescind my earlier comment about it being heavy and wet (made from just driving through it) - it's more "standard" to me - maybe 10:1 ratio snow - can make snowballs, but it's not soupy by any stretch

 

[RU848789]

Took me 2+ hours to get home to Pompton Lakes from Rutgers. Ugh. This storm is definitely over-delivering up here. I will probably need to shovel.

It may never change to plain rain up there (and if it does you'll likely get less than 1/4", which will just add weight to what you have to shovel) and you'll likely get 8" or more, so get that shovel ready...

 

[RU848789]

This is a little over an hour old, but it kind of says it all...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1650.html

 

[DJ Spanky]

Traffic ain't so good!

 

[T2Kplus10]

This was a HUGE bust today! Not the storm, but the awful job by the weather forecasters. They screwed up all DPW activities for the state, counties, and towns by saying it would mostly be rain.

Oh well, we are off to a 0-1 start for the season.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Traffic ain't so good!

Looks like a normal evening rush for the area.
:)

 

[sport2231]

This was a HUGE bust today! Not the storm, but the awful job by the weather forecasters. They screwed up all DPW activities for the state, counties, and towns by saying it would mostly be rain.

Oh well, we are off to a 0-1 start for the season.

Trust the process

 

[T2Kplus10]

Trust the process

[roll]
Good one.
Let's focus and go 1-0 for the next storm.

 

[bac2therac]

rain and sleet mxing in now with the snow IMBY

 

[bac2therac]

Public Information Statement
Spotter Reports
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
501 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 14
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available
on our home page at weather.gov/phi

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

DELAWARE

...New Castle County...
2 S Newark 4.5 217 PM 11/15 CoCoRaHS
Newark 4.3 201 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Bear 4.0 249 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Hockessin 3.6 434 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
New Castle County Ai 2.5 100 PM 11/15 ASOS

MARYLAND

...Cecil County...
Port Deposit 4.0 214 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
5 NW Elkton 2.7 100 PM 11/15 CoCoRaHS
North East 0.5 103 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter

NEW JERSEY

...Atlantic County...
Estell Manor 0.4 1125 AM 11/15 Snow and sleet.

...Burlington County...
Marlton 4.5 426 PM 11/15 Public
Mount Laurel 3.8 245 PM 11/15 NWS Employee
Bordentown 3.5 309 PM 11/15 Social Media
Westampton Twp 3.2 200 PM 11/15 Meteorologist
1 ESE Westampton Twp 1.8 100 PM 11/15 Official NWS Obs
Presidential Lakes 1.5 212 PM 11/15 Social Media
Hainesport Twp 1.4 118 PM 11/15 Meteorologist
1 SW Hainesport Twp 1.4 115 PM 11/15 In past 3 hours
Mount Holly 0.1 151 PM 11/15 NWS Employee

...Camden County...
1 E Merchantville 4.5 311 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Somerdale 3.3 315 PM 11/15 Co-Op Observer
Lindenwold 3.2 229 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter

...Gloucester County...
West Deptford 3.5 345 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
2 S Wenonah 3.5 126 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Mantua Twp 3.5 340 PM 11/15 Social Media
Washington Twp 3.3 145 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Mullica Hill 3.0 120 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Newfield 2.8 128 PM 11/15 Snow changing to sleet.
Pitman 1.6 155 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
East Greenwich Twp 0.7 103 PM 11/15 Emergency Manager

...Hunterdon County...
Lebanon 5.2 415 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Flemington 4.5 400 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
2 S Clinton Twp 3.5 400 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Readington Twp 3.1 334 PM 11/15 Still snowing.
3 S East Amwell Twp 1.0 212 PM 11/15 In past 30 minutes.

...Mercer County...
Princeton 4.0 409 PM 11/15 Broadcast Media
Ewing Twp 4.0 415 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Hamilton Twp 3.8 420 PM 11/15 Social Media
East Windsor Twp 1.5 319 PM 11/15 Broadcast Media

...Middlesex County...
Edison 4.8 400 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Woodbridge Twp 3.5 340 PM 11/15 Social Media
New Brunswick 3.0 215 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter

...Monmouth County...
2 NNE West Freehold 3.2 300 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Middletown 2.5 350 PM 11/15 Social Media
Keyport 2.0 213 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Matawan 2.0 234 PM 11/15 Social Media

...Salem County...
Carneys Point 3.0 108 PM 11/15 Public
Pennsville 2.8 353 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter

...Somerset County...
Branchburg Twp 4.0 401 PM 11/15 Social Media
Somerset 3.0 300 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Bernardsville 2.1 342 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter

...Sussex County...
4 SW Wantage 1.0 354 PM 11/15 NWS Employee

...Warren County...
2 NNE Greenwich Twp 4.9 410 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter

PENNSYLVANIA

...Berks County...
Bernville 7.1 400 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
West Lawn 6.0 254 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
1 NNE Earl Twp 6.0 400 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Shillington 4.0 213 PM 11/15 Social Media
Hamburg 4.0 316 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter

...Bucks County...
Morrisville 5.0 211 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
1 NNW Langhorne 4.5 350 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Bensalem 4.5 338 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Hilltown Twp 4.0 400 PM 11/15 NWS Employee
1 WNW Plumstead Twp 2.5 221 PM 11/15 Social Media

...Carbon County...
Albrightsville 5.5 458 PM 11/15 Social Media

...Chester County...
Elverson 5.4 423 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Glenmoore 5.1 230 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Malvern 5.0 245 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
East Nantmeal Twp 4.0 201 PM 11/15 Social Media
Exton 3.7 121 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
2 N East Marlborough 3.0 110 PM 11/15 Social Media

...Delaware County...
Chadds Ford Twp 4.7 215 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
1 SE Thornbury Twp 4.0 149 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
Drexel Hill 1.5 1206 PM 11/15 Social Media

...Lehigh County...
2 ENE Emmaus 6.1 415 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
1 S Allentown 4.5 300 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
North Whitehall Twp 4.1 330 PM 11/15 Meteorologist
2 NE Ancient Oaks 4.0 300 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter

...Montgomery County...
Pottstown 5.2 400 PM 11/15 Social Media
1 ESE Perkiomen Twp 5.2 400 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
King Of Prussia 5.0 403 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
1 W Ambler 4.5 326 PM 11/15 Still snowing.
Plymouth Meeting 4.5 400 PM 11/15 Social Media
1 NE Lower Providenc 4.5 428 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
1 SSW Narberth 3.8 130 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
1 WSW Narberth 3.8 200 PM 11/15 Changed to sleet.
Ambler 3.5 156 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter

...Northampton County...
Bethlehem 6.5 417 PM 11/15 Social Media
Bushkill Twp 3.8 400 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter
North Catasauqua 3.6 315 PM 11/15 Meteorologist
1 SSW Lower Mount Be 3.1 345 PM 11/15 Trained Spotter

...Philadelphia County...
1 S Wissinoming 3.0 408 PM 11/15 Fire Dept/Rescue
Philadelphia 3.0 110 PM 11/15 Public
Philadelphia Intl Ai 2.4 100 PM 11/15 ASOS

 

[RU848789]

Storm reminds me of 1/22/1987, not meteorologically, but with regard to being way underpredicted and timing. Forecasts were for maybe an inch or two of snow, then rain, iirc, but the whole megalopolis from DC to Boston (and down to Atlanta) got hammered. I recall getting about 10" in the New Brunswick area (was in grad school) and the timing also couldn't have been worse. It started snowing heavily around noon on a Friday and we had 4-5" by 3 pm and everywhere let their workers out early, only to then get stuck in traffic. Took me an hour to go 2 miles and my girlfriend took 4 hours to go 8 miles. Cars were abandoned all over the place. My roommate and I spent a few hours on our busy road helping people get their cars unstuck. Had an awesome night out that night at the old Melody Bar in NB, but that's a story for a different day, lol

 

[RU4Real]

Storm reminds me of 1/22/1987, not meteorologically, but with regard to being way underpredicted and timing. Forecasts were for maybe an inch or two of snow, then rain, iirc, but the whole megalopolis from DC to Boston (and down to Atlanta) got hammered. I recall getting about 10" in the New Brunswick area (was in grad school) and the timing also couldn't have been worse. It started snowing heavily around noon on a Friday and we had 4-5" by 3 pm and everywhere let their workers out early, only to then get stuck in traffic. Took me an hour to go 2 miles and my girlfriend took 4 hours to go 8 miles. Cars were abandoned all over the place. My roommate and I spent a few hours on our busy road helping people get their cars unstuck. Had an awesome night out that night at the old Melody Bar in NB, but that's a story for a different day, lol

I was in school and working for the CofE. The wife (to be) had to be at a client in the city and my car was in the shop, so I switched with her for the day. Dropped her off at the NB train station in the morning and went to my office on Busch.

When the snow started seriously coming down she called me and said "I'm leaving, my train gets in at 3:20". I hung out for a little and decided to head on over the bridge. I'd be way early, but figured I'd hang out somewhere around College Ave for a little bit.

At 2:30 I was still sitting on Rt. 18, just at the beginning of the river dorms underpass. Nothing had moved for an hour. So I shut off the car, left it where it was and walked to the train station to meet her. We had meal at the McDonald's and hiked back to the car. Three hours after I had left it, everything and everyone was still in the exact same spot.

We made it to my house in Sayreville sometime around 8:30.

 

[bac2therac]

accumulating snow is over for me...about 4 inches here in Belle Mead

 

[Crazed_RU]

This was an epic fail by prognosticators. That was one very bad commute home from Philly to Somerset County.

Maybe not in the amount of snow, but the type of snow for commuting was about as bad as it gets.

 

[Wolv RU]

[roll]
Good one.
Let's focus and go 1-0 for the next storm.

Heard it could be a long rebuild and they don't expect to get the forecasts up to an average level until 5 or 6 years from now.

 

[Doteman]

Tool over 2 hours to get home from work. Left New Brunswick at 245 and pulled into driveway in Piscataway at 5pm. A 9 mile commute.

 

[RUfromNJ]

Over 2 hours into my commute from Harrison back to Morristown. I’m about 1.5 mi from work. 280 is a horror show.

 

[APKnight]

Lots of snow here at the Hillsborough Deli. I did overhear someone saying Rob is out and Gary is in.

 

[RU848789]

As of 4 pm, 5" here in Metuchen and still snowing moderately to heavily, although smalller flakes (had huge flakes earlier). Looks like 6-7" is possible with the snow/rain line looking like it's at the border of Monmouth and Middlesex, at least 1-2 hours away, I think. Just shoveled and I rescind my earlier comment about it being heavy and wet (made from just driving through it) - it's more "standard" to me - maybe 10:1 ratio snow - can make snowballs, but it's not soupy by any stretch

As of 5:15 pm we had 6.25" of snow on the ground (been about 1.5" per hour since 1 pm) and it started sleeting. As of 5:35 pm it's now 90% sleet and pouring down at 31F. Note that in those 20 minutes, the snow compacted to 5.75", so if anyone measures well after the sleet starts, they'll likely see compaction. Would've easily verified a warning and barely had an advisory this morning. Just saw a report of people stuck on the GWB for 3+ hours - my worst nightmare.