It was 80 degrees in Harrison.................on this date in 1993.Then came the winter of 93-94,probably the worst winter in the past century.
OT: First winter storm end of week?
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yes this will be a positive bust for snowlovers....NWS going to bust badly with this one and will have xplaining to do
Mets bust. Tinton Fall was rain and changed to snow. I can see 4 inches in the Hillsborough proper, No changeover at all.
Major NWS forecast changes as it's snowing heavily almost everywhere in NJ/PA (except for the coast and inland maybe 20-30 miles, south of 195, where it's sleet/rain) and overperforming to our SW in SNJ/PE PA/DE/DC etc. Advisories are now for 1-3" for 95 up through Middlesex and for Somerset/Hunterdon/Bucks/Montco and for 3-5" in Union/Essex/Hudson/NYC (NYC office - they might bump the Mercer/Middlesex amounts too). And warnings (for 4-6/5-8" depending on location) are up for Lehigh Valley, Poconos and Sussex, Warren, Morris, W. Passaic, W. Bergen and the whole Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee. The afternoon rush is now almost guaranteed to be a shitshow. Good luck folks. Should've believed the models more, I guess, especially the Euro.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter storm warning
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory
Great discussion from NWS, if a little late, lol...
Upton's 12:45pm AFD update:
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A 1009 mb low was analyzed along the SE NC coast. This low will
track up the coast today as high pressure drifts towards the
Canadian Maritimes, then over or just off Long Island Fri AM,
and past Cape Cod by Fri aftn.
Significant update based on latest radar trend snowing hand of
heavier precip developing from DC metro to southern NJ, which
high resolution guidance including the NAM/HRRR/RAP bring into
the area during late afternoon and earlier evening. Despite
easterly flow, temps upstream along the south coast of New
England were in the mid 30s with dewpoints in the lower 20s, so
do not expect too much in the way of maritime moderation at
least into this evening. So the overall trend is for colder and
snowier going into early this evening. NAM may be a bit too
cold in the blyr, but we also started out the day with lower
dewpoints and so greater potential for temps to crash close to
freezing with onset of steady precip this afternoon. Period of
steady snow looks to be heavier and of longer duration than
initially expected, and warmer air aloft does not look to make
it in until about 23Z-00Z around NYC, and to interior sections
til late evening.
With the above in mind, issued winter storm warnings for the
interior where snowfall amounts have been bumped up into the
4-8 inch range, and winter wx advisories have been extended
into NYC and Long Island for 2-5 inch snowfall, with the higher
amounts generally farther away from the immediate coast. Also
bumped up amts along the CT coastline, and the coastal zones
could see some 6-inch amounts north of I-95. Timing of snow in
most places should cause significant disruptions to the
evening commute.
Warm/dry slot should work its way in tonight, with precip
changing over to sleet and then freezing rain. Up to 2 tenths of
an inch ice accretion fcst for portions of the interior. Storm
total snow and ice graphics are posted.
Bl should warm sufficiently along the coasts to limit the fzra
threat there. Should winds there not behave as fcst and back to
the N, perhaps due to the influence of a developing cstl front,
a period of icing would be possible in NYC and portions of wrn
Long Island early this eve.
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Unlikely, but 2-4" seems like a good call now and seemed like a good call yesterday - I just didn't have the guts to go against the NWS and all the pros, but I was always very uncomfortable with the 1" forecasts, as I kept saying. It'll still change to rain and heavy rain, but later than expected.
Why you picking on the Mets in a weather thread? They had a hard enough season. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
And I am in between you guys in Wall- heavy sleet mixed with rain--icy later on patio.
I put my car underneath 280 yesterday.It looks as if my caution was warranted.
Can you imagine the effect on attendance if this were Saturday?
Can you imagine the effect on attendance if this were Saturday?
Snow actually expanded 20-30 miles SE from 95 (and north of about Philly) over the last 45 minutes.
everyone caught off guard and they took their marching orders from the NWS and private forecasters. I know some will want to defend them but thats why they get paid the big bucks. This was a November 15 event so most dismissed it due to climo....I mentioned to my brother yesterday although I was skeptical about this event, I said remember the Eric Le Grand storm and how that went from something minor to something bigger, so not really surprised
About 2.5” here in Pway and coming down heavily. Medium size flakes. Very heavy snow with branches weighted down quite a bit on evergreens and deciduous trees that still have leaves on them. Of course the snow blower is in the shed still with mowers and a car in the garage... my wife just in from some errands and said the roads were surprisingly bad.
There is some similarities with the EL storm. In the last 30 years the EL storm was the earliest measurable snow today is #2 in the Philly region.
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