It's all your fault. You started a weather thread without #s approval. Now he is mad and attacking people.
OT: First winter storm end of week?
- Thread starter mikemarc1
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No, I usually lay out possibilities early on, commenting on what looks more or less probable, especially in snow situations which are far more difficult than a forecast like this past Saturday, which was a piece of cake, with "cool and dry" part being a lock 5-6 days out and the only question being the winds, which weren't nailed down until about 2 days before the event.
For snowstorms, I'll rarely speak with that kind of confidence, because that's a sure way to be wrong, since accuracy on snowstorms, even 2 days out, is often poor, as you know. So, if you want to criticize me for saying all the same things any professional will likely say about a snowstorm and the potential outcomes, be my guest. But you'll look kind of dumb and petty doing so.
I said cool temps, cold with the wind and I also said it would be into the upper 30s by the end of the game. Are you really doing this?
That would be nice. Take it up with bac, who hurled the first insult to which I responded (yeah, maybe I should've let it go) and then the usual suspects began trolling. I would far rather talk about the weather.
Back to the weather, for now. Latest models (NAM, GFS and CMC) are still showing several inches well N/W of I-95 on Thursday into Friday and at least 1-2" along I-95 and even some to the coast. Still skeptical of accumulating snow alont I-95 and especially towards the coast, but we've now seen 2-3 model cycles in a row showing this outcome, so it's getting harder to dismiss.
yes because you had to call me out as wrong for questioning a 6 day forecast as a lock..so yeah I can go on and nitpick if you want
I have zero intention of starting a thread on this threat, since I'm still skeptical it'll give measurable snow to people along I-95 (which is my usual criterion for starting a thread). And, as you know, I'm simply responding to people, like you, who attacked my posts first.
Did you even read the thread? If you're going to nitpick, at least do it accurately. I did not say anything about a "lock" until Day 5. You criticized my Day 7 post, which said it was "likely" to be cool/dry (did not say it was a lock), by saying it was just as likely to be warm and rainy and saying I should edit my thread title. I said that wasn't the case, as it was much more likely to be cool/dry and declined your advice. I ended up being right, as predicted.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...mid-40s-but-windy-mid-30s-wind-chills.155399/
Actually, temps were in the low/mid-40s from sunrise through the first half, dropping into the upper 30s by the second half. Freezing is 32F, in case you didn't know, so it was nowhere near freezing. And wind chills don't count with regard to "freezing" anything - only air temps count for that. If you'd like me to explain these concepts further, let me know.
Hey #'s, do you believe in this info? So many factors I guess go into global warming and weather. Throw in the magnetic poles getting ready to flip,lol.:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: https://www.iceagenow.info/lack-of-sunspots-to-bring-record-cold-warns-nasa-scientist/
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And the UK and Euro showing impressive snowfalls for the I-95 corridor (like 4-8") and more inland, where there may only be a limited changeover to rain, as per the models. But we're still 3+ days out, as the models ran on 7 pm EST data and the event starts late Thursday. So, climatology or models 3+ days out? I imagine it's going to be hard for pros/media to bite on the thumping for the 95 corridor from most of the models, including especially the Euro, when major snowfalls this early in the season are so rare - and so far most forecasts are calling for very little accumulation for the Philly-NYC corridor. But we all know climo isn't always right. Going to be an interesting couple of days. All kidding aside, this is the kind of stuff I don't forecast, per se, as the complexity and uncertainty right now are off the charts.
AHA! You admit you make PREDICTIONS!
I knew one day you would slip up and admit it.
Now that's clever teasing - well done. Although even that wasn't really a forecast, per se, as I was simply analyzing very short term radar trends and short range models.
You keep omitting the part where the snow changes to heavy rain and will be gone in an hour.
Ah. Missed that.
Based on this morning's discussion it appears that mentions of freezing rain north and west of 78 are starting to pop up. This is much more concerning than snow, IMO.
Yeah, it's already been dropped back a page due to the typical bickering by the Bobbsey Twins.
Big time, bet departments aren't gonna be ready for that. Sounds like a good day to work from home.
Nah, I'm good. Weather isn't as complicated as much as you try to make it seem.
You on the other hand need a little help with:
hu·mor, /ˈ(h)yo͞omər
the quality of being amusing or comic, especially as expressed in literature or speech.
sar·casm. /ˈsärˌkazəm
a mode of satirical wit depending for its effect on bitter, caustic, and often ironic language that is usually directed against an individual
Lighten up Francis. (in case you don't understand that is a popular joke as well)
Ohhhh here we go again with #'s and bac.
You each should start your own thread and the ban each other from participating in each other's thread!
You each should start your own thread and the ban each other from participating in each other's thread!
Huge uncertainty on this early season winter storm. NWS in Philly and NYC not really buying much snow from Philly to NYC, with both predicting maybe some snow early on (Thursday afternoon) with <1" possible on grassy surfaces, but quickly changing to rain with SE to E winds off the still very warm ocean (mid 50s). Could be 1-1,5" of rain through Friday morning. However most of the models are showing several inches of snow for the 95 corridor into Thursday night, followed by heavy rain and that would be a mess. Most pros think the models are overdone for the coast and I-95, given the warm ocean and general climatology being unfavorable for snow.
The NWS offices are predicting up to a few inches of snow (but noting the potential for more), then possible mixed precip (sleet and freezing rain, possibly) for inland areas, especially well N/W of 95 and especially also N of 78. This could be a real mess for places like the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, Sussex/Warren, NW Morris and NW Passaic and the Hudson Valley N and NW of 287. With over an inch of liquid equivalent precip falling, anywhere that gets mostly/all snow could get 10" or more of snow. .Good discussion by the NWS.
Precipitation will start to move into the area on Thursday and
then continue through the overnight and into Friday morning.
Some lingering showers on Friday through the afternoon are
possible.
Temperatures at the onset of the event will vary across the
region with sub freezing temps expected north and west of the
I-95 corridor and temps in the mid 30s to lower 40s south and
east of I-95. As the precipitation moves northward on Friday,
there won`t be too much of an opportunity for much warming to
occur at the surface so some mixed precipitation may be possible
even across our southern areas. However, the more likely
locations for any type of mixed precip (rain/snow/sleet/freezing
rain) will be across the northern areas, generally north of the
I-78 corridor. As the low tracks northward, it will bring some
warmer air into the lower levels and temperatures are likely to
rise Thursday night, at least up through the I-95 corridor,
which will help to keep the precip rain.
Lots of variables in play with this event and it will really
depend on the track and timing. As is usually the case with
coastal lows, a shift in the track (east/west) or timing
(faster/slower) will have an impact on ptype. One thing that
looks pretty consistent though is that we will see some decent
precipitation fall across the region (~1-2 inches of liquid),
but whether it is dominantly rain (more likely across the south)
or snow (more likely across the north and higher elevations)
still needs to be worked out. As we get closer, it seems likely
that some sort of advisory will be needed in parts of our
forecast area.
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
I'd rather just stop the nonsense and keep commentary on each other's posts to meteorology, without the sarcasm. We used to do much better at that on weather threads - I think the CE board has made that harder. I'm sure 95% of the board would prefer we stop bickering. I'm up for it if you are.
12Z models (7 am EST data inputs) are almost all in and we have the kind of model mayhem which illustrates the high degree of uncertainty with this storm. I'm still skeptical of more than a slushy inch or so for the 95 corridor before the changeover, with ocean temps in the 50s, but stranger things have happened...
- The new GFS (FV3) and the NAM hammer I-95 with 6" or more of front-end snow before the changeover to rain late Thursday and paste the interior with 10" or more (with a fair amount of these "snow" amounts possibly being sleet) and even have a couple of inches towards the coast (very steep gradient in every model).
- The old GFS and CMC show maybe 1-3" for the 95 corridor, then lots of rain, with 3-6" for interior locations (generally N/W of the 78/287 intersection and especially NW of 80/287 intersection).
- Haven't seen the UK and the Euro just came out and shows 0.4-0.8", still, of frozen precip up through early Thursday evening for the 95 corridor, before the changeover to heavy rain, with 1.2-2.0" of total precip falling (so over 1" of rain on top of any snow/sleet). Euro has had this solution for several runs now and we're only 48-60 hours from the event, so it's possible it'll be right. Euro showing a fair amount more inland, as expected. Pretty sure the NWS will want to see more model consensus, say, 24 hours from now, before taking a snow threat more seriously for the 95 corridor. However, I could see winter storm watches going up for interior sections if tonight's model runs continue to show potential snow/sleet - and maybe advisories tomorrow afternoon for the 95 corridor if a few inches or more look likely by then.
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This is what weather threads are all about. Some want attention - some call out the attention seekers. LOL
Weather is just a secondary issue.
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