I stocked up, 30 pack bud Light, fireball, and ground beef for burgers
OT: First winter storm end of week?
- Thread starter mikemarc1
- Start date
- Status
Thanks, although it's worth noting that, by far, the worst conditions will be between about 2 pm and 7 pm in the NYC Metro area and the surrounding suburbs, with snow/sleet for much of this time, then possibly a touch of freezing rain. The afternoon rush could be quite a mess. Friday shouldn't be much of an issue with the heavy rain being largely over by 7 am - will still be some moderate rain and wind in the NYC area (and maybe some snow squalls well NW of NYC), but the frozen precip should be long over by then, so no real reason to keep people home on Friday (unless maybe a few are commuting from 40-50 miles N or NW of NYC).
Finally a snowfall map from the NWS-Philly (but not from the website, lol) and an updated map from NYC. Basically 1-2" for the 95 corridor, as the NWS said earlier. Pretty consistent with NYC forecasts I've seen and TWC and others. Several models still showing more...
Also, here's DT/WxRisk's map - more bullish than usual, with 2-4" for the 95 corridor from just NW of Philly to Trenton to NB to NYC. That would only be a mild surprise, given what many models are showing.
Also, here's DT/WxRisk's map - more bullish than usual, with 2-4" for the 95 corridor from just NW of Philly to Trenton to NB to NYC. That would only be a mild surprise, given what many models are showing.
Last edited:
And NWS-Philly issued advisories for Middlesex down through Salem in SW NJ and all counties NW of there in PA and NJ (still no map, though, lol). The Advisories are grouped as below. It's also worth noting that some of the more bullish snowfall models, like the Euro, have decreased snowfall amounts a bit to be more in line with some of the other models, although they're still showing more snow/sleet than the current forecasts - based on 10:1 ratios, but if the expected lower ratios of about 5:1 materialize and we get a decent amount of sleet, those "snowfall" projections will likely be in line with the accumulating snow forecasts from the NWS, below.
- For the counties in SNJ/SE PA along the Delaware from Mercer/Montgomery down to Salem/Chester, they're only calling for an inch or less of snow/sleet - the advisories are for the potential of a light glaze of freezing rain during the transition from snow/sleet to rain tomorrow late afternoon.
- For Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, Bucks and Upper Montco the advisories are for 1-3" of snow/sleet and then a possible freezing rain glaze during the transition to rain in the early evening.
- For Morris, Warren, Berks, Lehigh and Northampton the Advisories are for 1-3" of snow and 0.1" of an ice glace during the transition to rain, which will be late at night.
- Finally for Sussex, Carbon and Monroe, the Advisories are for 2-4" of sleet and snow and up to 0.2" of freezing rain; in these locations the change to rain will likely be after midnight.
- For most locations, except far NW areas (like Sussex/Poconos), there will likely be an inch or so of rain after the transition, so most/all of the snow/sleet will likely be washed away.
Also, here's the NWS map for the whole eastern region - local offices still not updating theiir maps for some reason...
NWS in Philly and NYC continues with the same winter weather advisories as were issued at 4 pm yesterday, except they have adjusted snowfall amounts slightly upwards for areas NW of 95 and in the Hudson Valley. Bottom line is that for most of the area, the afternoon is likely to be a mess into the afternoon rush hour. (and into the evening and beyond for areas north of about 78). Here's the bulleted summary of the advisories, grouped as follows:
- For the counties in SNJ/SE PA along the Delaware from Mercer/Montgomery down to Salem/Chester, they're still only calling for an inch or less of snow/sleet - the advisories are for the potential of a light glaze of freezing rain during the transition from snow/sleet to rain lmid/ate this afternoon (precip will start in the Philly area by late morning).
- For Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, Bucks and Upper Montco the advisories are unchanged for 1-3" of snow/sleet and then a possible freezing rain glaze during the transition to rain in the late afternoon to early evening (and precip should start around noon/early afternoon for most of CNJ/adjacent PA)
- For Morris, Warren, Berks, Lehigh and Northampton the Advisories were increased from 1-3" of snow to 2-4" of snow; the up to 0.1" of an ice glaze was retained, during the transition to rain which should be late in the evening (precip should start here by early afternoon).
- For Sussex, Carbon and Monroe, the Advisories were increased from 2-4" of sleet and snow to 4-6" of snow/sleet; the up to 0.2" of an ice glaze was retained, during the transition to rain which should be around midnight (precip should start here by early/mid afternoon).
- For NYC/Hudson no advisories were issued, but these areas are still forecast to receive about 1-2" of snow/sleet and then a possible freezing rain glaze during the transition to rain in the early evening (and precip should start around early/mid afternoon here). For LI, <1" snow/sleet is likely, as it's the furthest east location in the area and the track of the storm is hugging the east coast through NJ meaning SE winds for LI off the ocean in the 50s.
- For eastern Passaic, Eastern Bergen, Union, and Essex the advisories are unchanged for 1-2" of snow/sleet and then freezing rain up to 0.1" during the transition to rain in the early evening (and precip should start around early/mid afternoon).
- For Western Passaic/Western Bergen, Orange, Putnam, Rockland and Westchester, the Advisories were increased from 1-3" to 2-4" of sleet and snow and the up to 0.2" of an ice glaze was retained, during the transition to rain which should be around midnight (precip should start here by mid afternoon).
- For most locations, except far N/W areas (like Sussex/Poconos and the Hudson Valley), there will likely be an inch or more of rain after the transition, so most/all of the snow/sleet will likely be washed away; for the far N/W areas <1/2" of plain rain may fall, which may simply get absorbed into the sleet/snow pack.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=okx&wwa=winter weather advisory
Here's the NWS-NYC snowmap; still no updated map from NWS-Philly...
Last edited:
I see the map and the advisories--my commute is to Metropark--looks like 1-3" in Middlesex, with banding of 6" in the snowglobe of Metuchen-:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:. Skip it today, and work from home? I don't want any commuting hassles.
If you're able to work from home, do it, since it could be an ugly pm commute in Middlesex County (or just wait until 6-7 pm, when it should be all rain and traffic should be lighter).
Can't be sure, but 1-5 pm is likely to be the worst time for snow at EWR, so if there were to be a delay or cancellations that would be the time. We're also not talking a major snowstorm (unless it overperforms), so I think you have a good shot at making it.
Pretty stupid huh? I guess they need catchy little ways to keep people tuning in.
Numbers, what do you think of weather willy as the forecaster/analyst?And NWS-Philly issued advisories for Middlesex down through Salem in SW NJ and all counties NW of there in PA and NJ (still no map, though, lol). The Advisories are grouped as follows:
- For the counties in SNJ/SE PA along the Delaware from Mercer/Montgomery down to Salem/Chester, they're only calling for an inch or less of snow/sleet - the advisories are for the potential of a light glaze of freezing rain during the transition from snow/sleet to rain tomorrow late afternoon.
- For Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, Bucks and Upper Montco the advisories are for 1-3" of snow/sleet and then a possible freezing rain glaze during the transition to rain in the early evening.
- For Morris, Warren, Berks, Lehigh and Northampton the Advisories are for 1-3" of snow and 0.1" of an ice glace during the transition to rain, which will be late at night.
- Finally for Sussex, Carbon and Monroe, the Advisories are for 2-4" of sleet and snow and up to 0.2" of freezing rain; in these locations the change to rain will likely be after midnight.
- For most locations, except far NW areas (like Sussex/Poconos), there will likely be an inch or so of rain after the transition, so most/all of the snow/sleet will likely be washed away.
Also, here's the NWS map for the whole eastern region - local offices still not updating theiir maps for some reason...
Last edited:
start time is slightly delayed
930 AM Update: Leading edge of precipitation continues to
gradually advance northward at this time across the Delmarva and
southern NJ with the onset being just a bit slower than
expected due to a dry layer in the low levels. Still expect
precipitation should begin across the I-95 corridor from
Wilmington to Philadelphia within the next hour or two. Overall,
no major changes were made to the forecast at this time. We
delayed the onset slightly from Philly northward and also
reduced hourly temps a bit and added some snow and sleet into
the forecast across parts of the Delmarva and interior southern
NJ where temps are running a bit cooler than forecast due to
evaporational cooling and there has been some snow and sleet.
Still expecting a change to rain in these areas though by early
this afternoon as E/NE winds bring in milder air. No changes to
headlines or snow/ice totals.
930 AM Update: Leading edge of precipitation continues to
gradually advance northward at this time across the Delmarva and
southern NJ with the onset being just a bit slower than
expected due to a dry layer in the low levels. Still expect
precipitation should begin across the I-95 corridor from
Wilmington to Philadelphia within the next hour or two. Overall,
no major changes were made to the forecast at this time. We
delayed the onset slightly from Philly northward and also
reduced hourly temps a bit and added some snow and sleet into
the forecast across parts of the Delmarva and interior southern
NJ where temps are running a bit cooler than forecast due to
evaporational cooling and there has been some snow and sleet.
Still expecting a change to rain in these areas though by early
this afternoon as E/NE winds bring in milder air. No changes to
headlines or snow/ice totals.
It's funny how snowstorms always turn adults into kids.
Until of course they have to go out and shovel
Until of course they have to go out and shovel
Big part of the never ending storm hype. Gotta motivate the viewers. Sad.
NWS in Philly and NYC continues with the same winter weather advisories as were issued at 4 pm yesterday, except they have adjusted snowfall amounts slightly upwards for areas NW of 95 and in the Hudson Valley. Bottom line is that for most of the area, the afternoon is likely to be a mess into the afternoon rush hour. (and into the evening and beyond for areas north of about 78). Here's the bulleted summary of the advisories, grouped as follows:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory
- For the counties in SNJ/SE PA along the Delaware from Mercer/Montgomery down to Salem/Chester, they're still only calling for an inch or less of snow/sleet - the advisories are for the potential of a light glaze of freezing rain during the transition from snow/sleet to rain lmid/ate this afternoon (precip will start in the Philly area by late morning).
- For Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, Bucks and Upper Montco the advisories are unchanged for 1-3" of snow/sleet and then a possible freezing rain glaze during the transition to rain in the late afternoon to early evening (and precip should start around noon/early afternoon for most of CNJ/adjacent PA)
- For Morris, Warren, Berks, Lehigh and Northampton the Advisories were increased from 1-3" of snow to 2-4" of snow; the up to 0.1" of an ice glaze was retained, during the transition to rain which should be late in the evening (precip should start here by early afternoon).
- For Sussex, Carbon and Monroe, the Advisories were increased from 2-4" of sleet and snow to 4-6" of snow/sleet; the up to 0.2" of an ice glaze was retained, during the transition to rain which should be around midnight (precip should start here by early/mid afternoon).
- For NYC/Hudson no advisories were issued, but these areas are still forecast to receive about 1-2" of snow/sleet and then a possible freezing rain glaze during the transition to rain in the early evening (and precip should start around early/mid afternoon here). For LI, <1" snow/sleet is likely, as it's the furthest east location in the area and the track of the storm is hugging the east coast through NJ meaning SE winds for LI off the ocean in the 50s.
- For eastern Passaic, Eastern Bergen, Union, and Essex the advisories are unchanged for 1-2" of snow/sleet and then freezing rain up to 0.1" during the transition to rain in the early evening (and precip should start around early/mid afternoon).
- For Western Passaic/Western Bergen, Orange, Putnam, Rockland and Westchester, the Advisories were increased from 1-3" to 2-4" of sleet and snow and the up to 0.2" of an ice glaze was retained, during the transition to rain which should be around midnight (precip should start here by mid afternoon).
- For most locations, except far N/W areas (like Sussex/Poconos and the Hudson Valley), there will likely be an inch or more of rain after the transition, so most/all of the snow/sleet will likely be washed away; for the far N/W areas <1/2" of plain rain may fall, which may simply get absorbed into the sleet/snow pack.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=okx&wwa=winter weather advisory
Here's the NWS-NYC snowmap; still no updated map from NWS-Philly...
Very busy at work, but Advisories have been extended to all of NJ except the coast, since the storm is already overperforming in SNJ/SE PA/DE. Short term models are also showing the potential for more like 2-4" for Trenton to NYC and 3-6" NW of there, especially NW of 78/287 and most pros are moving that way with their forecasts. Freezing rain transition also still likely with a glaze to 0.1" in most of the area being possible and more well N/W tonight. Very tricky forecast, because a delay of 1-2 hours in transition to sleet/ZR/rain means an extra 1-2" of snow given decent precip rates.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory
This seems a bad time to have my snowblower at the shop for repairs.
It's not supposed to snow until January. Do a better job dammit!
1220 PM Update: Precipitation continues to overspread the
area...falling as mainly snow through and north of the I-95
corridor with a wintry mix just to the south. Based on latest
trends in near term guidance and in collaboration with
surrounding offices we have upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning
across our northern counties through Carbon, Monroe,
Northampton Counties in PA and Warren, Sussex, and Morris
Counties in NJ. Snow amounts still look to be borderline as far
as warning criteria but based on impacts with sleet and freezing
rain also expected and since it`s the first event of the year
we felt warning was warranted.
area...falling as mainly snow through and north of the I-95
corridor with a wintry mix just to the south. Based on latest
trends in near term guidance and in collaboration with
surrounding offices we have upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning
across our northern counties through Carbon, Monroe,
Northampton Counties in PA and Warren, Sussex, and Morris
Counties in NJ. Snow amounts still look to be borderline as far
as warning criteria but based on impacts with sleet and freezing
rain also expected and since it`s the first event of the year
we felt warning was warranted.
sticking to grass and car tops...some sticking to sidewalks and edges of parking lot.,,,temp dropped to 28
My daughter sent me a pic of the snowfall outside her office window. Looks like it's one of the suburban offices, not in the city.
Holy Overperform, Batman...
Moderate snow in western MonCo, with nearly an inch on the ground and totally covered roads.
Moderate snow in western MonCo, with nearly an inch on the ground and totally covered roads.
- Status
