OT: First winter storm end of week?

[RU848789]

12Z models (7 am EST data inputs) are almost all in and we have the kind of model mayhem which illustrates the high degree of uncertainty with this storm. I'm still skeptical of more than a slushy inch or so for the 95 corridor before the changeover, with ocean temps in the 50s, but stranger things have happened...

• The new GFS (FV3) and the NAM hammer I-95 with 6" or more of front-end snow before the changeover to rain late Thursday and paste the interior with 10" or more (with a fair amount of these "snow" amounts possibly being sleet) and even have a couple of inches towards the coast (very steep gradient in every model).
• The old GFS and CMC show maybe 1-3" for the 95 corridor, then lots of rain, with 3-6" for interior locations (generally N/W of the 78/287 intersection and especially NW of 80/287 intersection).
• Haven't seen the UK and the Euro just came out and shows 0.4-0.8", still, of frozen precip up through early Thursday evening for the 95 corridor, before the changeover to heavy rain, with 1.2-2.0" of total precip falling (so over 1" of rain on top of any snow/sleet). Euro has had this solution for several runs now and we're only 48-60 hours from the event, so it's possible it'll be right. Euro showing a fair amount more inland, as expected. Pretty sure the NWS will want to see more model consensus, say, 24 hours from now, before taking a snow threat more seriously for the 95 corridor. However, I could see winter storm watches going up for interior sections if tonight's model runs continue to show potential snow/sleet - and maybe advisories tomorrow afternoon for the 95 corridor if a few inches or more look likely by then.

So, given that the models are still showing modest to major snow/sleet accumulations for much of the area (and continue to do so with the latest 18Z models), the NWS offices and most of the local media are now starting to take this threat more seriously, although none of them is predicting the amount of snow/sleet that some models are (6" or more for the 95 corridor in some) and for good reason - ocean water temps are still in the mid-50s, so it's highly likely that the very snowy models are overdone and the easterly winds off the ocean will limit accumulations from the coast to 95 and even inland somewhat.

NWS offices in Philly and NYC are now calling for some minor accumulations (1-3") for the Philly-NYC corridor on the front end of the storm in the early/mid-afternoon on Thursday, possibly followed by some sleet and changing over to rain by evening, with heavy rain through Friday morning (1" or more of rain). With temps in the low 30s in the afternoon, snow will accumulate after about 3-4 pm, given the low sun angle and decent rates, so the afternoon rush (in the dark, too) could be a mess.

NWS is calling for more substantial snow/sleet for the interior sections well N/W of 95 and especially N of 78 (and W of 287), with more like 3-5" with the potential for a bit more, especially for areas like the Poconos, Sussex/Warren, NW Morris/Passaic and the Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee (and the Catskills and interior New England where 6-8" of more is likely). Could also be up to 1/10th of an inch of freezing rain on top of the snow/sleet.

As always, when we're ~48 hours out, much can change with minor changes in the track and intensity of the surface low coming up the coast, as well as the influence of the upper level low that will be in the TN Valley that will be feeding energy into the coastal low, and, of course, the strength of the cold high pressure that will be in northern New England/Quebec.

Uncertainty is high enough that for NB, for example, we could see all rain, 1-3" of snow/sleet, then a lot of rain, 3-5" of snow/sleet then a fair amount of rain or even 5-8" of snow/sleet, then some rain. Difficult forecast. NWS-NYC map is below; haven't seen one from NWS-Philly yet, but you can easily imagine that 2" line running roughly from NYC to Newark to NB to Trenton to Philly. NWS discussion is below.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
310 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active weather in the long term focuses on the nor`easter which
is likely to affect the region Thursday into Friday. This system
will have plenty of Gulf and Atlantic moisture to work with and
strong dynamics thanks to a potent upper level disturbance,
combined with strong baroclinic forcing due to the unusually
cold air mass meeting the still warm Atlantic waters. After the
system passes Friday, high pressure will likely result in much
quieter weather this weekend into early next week.

At the start of the period on Wednesday night, high pressure
shifts to the northeast of the region into southern Canada while
low pressure develops to the southwest. After a mostly clear
start, high clouds should move in, then thicken and lower as the
night progresses. Lows will mostly be below freezing, though
warmer areas near the coast and in southern NJ/DE may stay in
the mid 30s.

Warm advection precip overspreads the region ahead of the main
low pressure as we head through Thursday. Have not made
significant adjustments to the forecast given its still a couple
days out, but it is notable that the onset looks earlier, and
overall models seem to have trended a bit colder. Snow is
possible along and even southeast of the I-95 corridor at the
onset, with accumulations more likely northwest of I-95. As warm
advection brings a warm nose aloft, snow likely changes to
sleet/freezing rain where the low level cold can hold firm, and
this could also last for some time especially NW of I-95. Winter
Storm Watches could be required for at least northwestern
portions of the CWA. Near I-95, the issue is always just how
quickly the warmer maritime air can nudge out the cold Canadian
air, which is often a struggle. The details have yet to be
fleshed out, but the bottom line is that there could be
significant issues with wintry weather all the way down to I-95
through much of the day Thursday, perhaps even into Thursday
night.

As the surface low heads northeast of the region later
Thursday night into early Friday, a changeover back to snow from
ice/rain is possible, though this is highly uncertain.
Regardless, as the low strengthens, some gusty winds are likely
especially Thursday night and Friday as the low pulls away. For
those locations which receive freezing rain (glaze ice), this
could be a significant issue.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[RU4Real]

Thursday
A chance of snow before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow between 10am and 11am, then rain likely after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

 

[RU848789]

Thursday
A chance of snow before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow between 10am and 11am, then rain likely after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Their point-and-click forecasts and weather graphics have been wonky for days. Below is what it says for South Plainfield, while Edison is similar to what you posted, presumably for Freehold. I'd go more by the discussion, which clearly shows the potential for an inch or two along 95: "the bottom line is that there could be significant issues with wintry weather all the way down to I-95 through much of the day Thursday, perhaps even into Thursday night."

Thursday
Snow. High near 37. Northeast wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Thursday Night
Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 8pm. Low around 33. Northeast wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday
Rain, mainly before 1pm. High near 45. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

 

[bac2therac]

Belle Mead forecast

Thursday
A chance of snow before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow between 10am and noon, then rain likely after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Northeast wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Thursday Night
Rain. Low around 35. Northeast wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Spanky Forecast for Tuesday evening: single malt scotch with a splash of spring water.

 

[WhiteBus]

Spanky Forecast for Tuesday evening: single malt scotch with a splash of spring water.

Isn't the spring water stale? It's almost winter.

 

[RUScrew85]

Isn't the spring water stale? It's almost winter.

Yeah at least use summer water.

 

[retired711]

Here's the National Weather Service's current briefing from the Philadelphia office.. Note that their confidence in the forecast is only modest, because it is not yet possible to forecast when the changeover from snow will occur. Notice also that there will be freezing rain (much more dangerous than snow, IMHO) along and north of roughly I-78. I would try to avoid driving on Thursday night. https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

 

[MadRU]

But what will the weather be for the commute to the RAC Friday evening? That’s the most important forecast.

 

[retired711]

But what will the weather be for the commute to the RAC Friday evening? That’s the most important forecast.

The NWS forecast seemed OK; the rain is supposed to end by Friday evening. Root the team on to victory!!

 

[RU848789]

But what will the weather be for the commute to the RAC Friday evening? That’s the most important forecast.

No worries - should be cool and dry (with, at most, a brief sprinkle possible) by rush hour on Friday afternoon. See you there.

 

[RU848789]

Their point-and-click forecasts and weather graphics have been wonky for days. Below is what it says for South Plainfield, while Edison is similar to what you posted, presumably for Freehold. I'd go more by the discussion, which clearly shows the potential for an inch or two along 95: "the bottom line is that there could be significant issues with wintry weather all the way down to I-95 through much of the day Thursday, perhaps even into Thursday night."

Thursday
Snow. High near 37. Northeast wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Thursday Night
Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 8pm. Low around 33. Northeast wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday
Rain, mainly before 1pm. High near 45. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Here's what I was talking about. The NWS-Philly point-and-click high temps for South Plainfield for Friday and Saturday are 45 and 48F, whereas the weather graphic high temps are 42 and 43F. I have no idea what's going on and why I'm seeing 3-5F discrepancies - I think the point-and-click numbers are correct, since they agree with other sources, but the weirdness I mentioned above for just the point-and-click seems odd. Towns right next to each other with significant differences (little to no snow vs. 1-3" of snow). Sent a note to the NWS folks...

 

[RU848789]

Their point-and-click forecasts and weather graphics have been wonky for days. Below is what it says for South Plainfield, while Edison is similar to what you posted, presumably for Freehold. I'd go more by the discussion, which clearly shows the potential for an inch or two along 95: "the bottom line is that there could be significant issues with wintry weather all the way down to I-95 through much of the day Thursday, perhaps even into Thursday night."

Thursday
Snow. High near 37. Northeast wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Thursday Night
Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 8pm. Low around 33. Northeast wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday
Rain, mainly before 1pm. High near 45. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

NWS in Philly still hasn't put out a map, but their point-click now looks updated. They're calling for 1-3" along and NW of the Turnpike in Middlesex County from NB northward, roughly and along and NW of Route 1 from NB to Trenton, roughly, with only an inch or so SE of those roads. Hopefully maps will be out soon. NWS in NYC is calling for a general 1-3" for most of NYC and adjacent NE NJ (Hudson/Essex/Union). Here's the text for Edison:

Thursday
Snow. High near 37. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 8pm. Low around 34. Northeast wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday
Rain, mainly before 1pm. High near 46. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

 

[RU848789]

So, given that the models are still showing modest to major snow/sleet accumulations for much of the area (and continue to do so with the latest 18Z models), the NWS offices and most of the local media are now starting to take this threat more seriously, although none of them is predicting the amount of snow/sleet that some models are (6" or more for the 95 corridor in some) and for good reason - ocean water temps are still in the mid-50s, so it's highly likely that the very snowy models are overdone and the easterly winds off the ocean will limit accumulations from the coast to 95 and even inland somewhat.

NWS offices in Philly and NYC are now calling for some minor accumulations (1-3") for the Philly-NYC corridor on the front end of the storm in the early/mid-afternoon on Thursday, possibly followed by some sleet and changing over to rain by evening, with heavy rain through Friday morning (1" or more of rain). With temps in the low 30s in the afternoon, snow will accumulate after about 3-4 pm, given the low sun angle and decent rates, so the afternoon rush (in the dark, too) could be a mess.

NWS is calling for more substantial snow/sleet for the interior sections well N/W of 95 and especially N of 78 (and W of 287), with more like 3-5" with the potential for a bit more, especially for areas like the Poconos, Sussex/Warren, NW Morris/Passaic and the Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee (and the Catskills and interior New England where 6-8" of more is likely). Could also be up to 1/10th of an inch of freezing rain on top of the snow/sleet.

As always, when we're ~48 hours out, much can change with minor changes in the track and intensity of the surface low coming up the coast, as well as the influence of the upper level low that will be in the TN Valley that will be feeding energy into the coastal low, and, of course, the strength of the cold high pressure that will be in northern New England/Quebec.

Uncertainty is high enough that for NB, for example, we could see all rain, 1-3" of snow/sleet, then a lot of rain, 3-5" of snow/sleet then a fair amount of rain or even 5-8" of snow/sleet, then some rain. Difficult forecast. NWS-NYC map is below; haven't seen one from NWS-Philly yet, but you can easily imagine that 2" line running roughly from NYC to Newark to NB to Trenton to Philly. NWS discussion is below.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
310 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active weather in the long term focuses on the nor`easter which
is likely to affect the region Thursday into Friday. This system
will have plenty of Gulf and Atlantic moisture to work with and
strong dynamics thanks to a potent upper level disturbance,
combined with strong baroclinic forcing due to the unusually
cold air mass meeting the still warm Atlantic waters. After the
system passes Friday, high pressure will likely result in much
quieter weather this weekend into early next week.

At the start of the period on Wednesday night, high pressure
shifts to the northeast of the region into southern Canada while
low pressure develops to the southwest. After a mostly clear
start, high clouds should move in, then thicken and lower as the
night progresses. Lows will mostly be below freezing, though
warmer areas near the coast and in southern NJ/DE may stay in
the mid 30s.

Warm advection precip overspreads the region ahead of the main
low pressure as we head through Thursday. Have not made
significant adjustments to the forecast given its still a couple
days out, but it is notable that the onset looks earlier, and
overall models seem to have trended a bit colder. Snow is
possible along and even southeast of the I-95 corridor at the
onset, with accumulations more likely northwest of I-95. As warm
advection brings a warm nose aloft, snow likely changes to
sleet/freezing rain where the low level cold can hold firm, and
this could also last for some time especially NW of I-95. Winter
Storm Watches could be required for at least northwestern
portions of the CWA. Near I-95, the issue is always just how
quickly the warmer maritime air can nudge out the cold Canadian
air, which is often a struggle. The details have yet to be
fleshed out, but the bottom line is that there could be
significant issues with wintry weather all the way down to I-95
through much of the day Thursday, perhaps even into Thursday
night.

As the surface low heads northeast of the region later
Thursday night into early Friday, a changeover back to snow from
ice/rain is possible, though this is highly uncertain.
Regardless, as the low strengthens, some gusty winds are likely
especially Thursday night and Friday as the low pulls away. For
those locations which receive freezing rain (glaze ice), this
could be a significant issue.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS and most media are now in agreement on a general 1-2" (and locally up to 3") for the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC, with the lower end of that range just S/E of the Turnpike and the higher end a bit NW of there. Towards the coast current predictions are for <1", while areas NW of 95 and especially N of 78 (and west of 287) are looking at more like 2-3" with 3-5" being forecast for areas well inland like the Poconos, Sussex/Warren, NW Morris/Passaic and the Hudson Valley north of the Tappan Zee. Most of the snow/sleet for the 95 corridor would fall between about 1-7 pm with heavy rain likely after that (could be up to an inch of rain). So, the afternoon rush could be a real mess.

Note that these amounts might include some sleet, which would reduce depths of frozen precip, but would contain the same mass for driving in and snow removal (sleet is less of a visibility issue though). And areas well to the NW of 95 are also at risk of 0.1-0.2" of ice accretion from freezing rain. Still no NWS-Philly map yet for some reason and the NWS-NYC map hasn't been updated. Good chance of seeing watches for the well inland counties this morning and maybe advisories for counties SE of there to I-95, but maybe not until Weds afternoon or not at all if they continue to not buy the colder/snowier models.

Here's the interesting thing. Most of the models are showing a bit to a lot more snow for almost everyone, but I think the pros are simply discounting the models, due to climatology making it less likely to get that much snow with ocean temps in the 50s, plus not all models are showing a lot more. However, at some point, if the models continue to show more snow than forecast (an open question), tomorrow and tomorrow night, I'd expect to see increases in snowfall forecasts.

For example, the new GFS (FV3), Euro, and NAM (both the 12 km and the 3 km high-res version) are all showing 4-8" of snow/sleet (if it's a lot of sleet, depths would be less, but mass would be the same) for the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC and up to 8-12" well inland (all with a sharp cutoff towards the coast, where the coast gets very little snow). The old GFS and the Canadian are the only ones showing more like 1-3" for the 95 corridor and 3-6" well NW of 95 (and none for the coast). I don't usually like to post individual model maps, as I think they can be misleading (and people misuse them all over the internet), but if you want to see them, they all get shown on the weather boards.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1491-november-15-16-coastal-rainmixsnow/?page=50

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...scussion/?page=6&tab=comments#comment-5022545

 

[bac2therac]

Mt Holly does not seem bullish on snow totals south of 78...for some reason their snow map on their page is from May....but they are putting out 2-4 inch amounts from the Poconos to 78 and an inch or less to I95. I think the freezing rain or sleet aspect will be a bigger issue than the snow.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday through Friday...The main event of the extended makes its
presence known on Thursday and continues into Friday. The low
pressure system starts to organize itself off the South Carolina
coast by Thursday morning. The system starts off as a double
barreled low with the second low located inland across the Tennessee
Valley. As the coastal low starts to deepen off the Carolina coast,
it becomes the more dominant surface low and the inland low
eventually gets absorbed into it. The coastal low will track up the
Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday, passing off the New Jersey coast
Thursday night before heading to the northeast and into New
England on Friday and then off to the Canadian Maritimes Friday
night. Above the surface, a strong upper level low located over
the midwestern states early Thursday will move up through the
Ohio Valley then starts to open up into a deep trough as it
crosses our area late Thursday into Friday morning.

This system is loaded with moisture and liquid precipitation
amounts around 1.5-2.0 inches look likely. With how wet we have
been recently there is the potential for some localized flooding
across the region as moderate to heavy rainfall occurs.
Additionally, with leaves still on the ground in many areas,
storm drains may be affected and could exacerbate some of the
local issues. There is potential for a Flood Watch and one may
be needed later today.

Temperatures at the onset of the event will mainly be below freezing
across the region. This means a mix of winter precipitation at the
onset with a chance for some snow/sleet/freezing rain to fall.
Central and southern Delmarva, along with portions of southern New
Jersey will remain warmer keeping the precipitation in the form of
plain rain. As the low tracks northward, warmer air will surge
northward and precipitation will change over to rain through
much of the area with mixed precipitation more likely north and
west of I- 78. Expect accumulating snow (2 to 4 inches with some
locally higher amounts through the Poconos) mainly north and
west of I-78 with some lower amounts (less than an inch)
possible down through the I-95 corridor.

One big concern is the freezing rain vs sleet potential across the
northern portions of the forecast area. Model soundings continue to
show a layer of warm air aloft with a layer of colder air below it.
Just how deep that warm layer is vs the cold layer will impact the
precipitation type. Current model trends are colder which plays more
towards a sleet scenario. More sleet would also cut down on the snow
accumulations but remember that sleet is counted as snow and may be
reflected as such on our snow total maps. However, still feel that
freezing rain will be an issue, especially north of I-80 where up to
a quarter inch of ice remains possible.

One other item of note is that there is a slight chance we could
hear a rumble or two of thunder as the system wraps itself up and
heads to the north on Friday.

Although the bulk of storm is now a day away, there is still some
uncertainty associated with it. Temperatures, both at and above
the surface, will play a huge role with respect to ptype and
while things are becoming clearer each model run, they are still
bouncing around too much to lend high confidence to this
forecast. Another issue is the possibility of a dry slot
occuring later Thursday which could cut off precipitation and
lower amounts. One thing that is consistent is that
precipitation will be moderate to heavy at times and this will
certainly contribute to making travel difficult. No Winter Storm
Watch will be issued as confidence in reaching warning criteria
in any part of our forecast area is low. However, it does look
like we will reach advisory criteria in parts of the area and
there is likely to be a Winter Weather Advisory issued later
today as more details become clearer.

F

 

[bac2therac]

Belle Mead forecast

Thursday
Snow and sleet before 4pm, then rain, snow, and freezing rain. High near 35. East wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Thursday Night
Rain. Low around 35. Northeast wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Friday
Rain likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

 

[bac2therac]

dan zarrow is a little more bullish for union/somerset/northern middlesex than Mt Holly

http://nj1015.com/njs-first-winter-storm-of-the-season-thursday-9-things-to-know/

 

[bac2therac]

accuweather.com has me for a coating to an inch tomorrow afternoon before changeover

WCTC:
THURSDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS. A COASTAL STORM LIKELY BRINGS WINTRY MIX DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
EXPECT A GENERAL 1 - 3" OF SNOW AND SLEET
HIGH 35 - 40

THURSDAY NIGHT
ANY WINTRY MIX CHANGES OVER TO PLAIN RAIN EARLY ON, WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
LOW AROUND 35

 

[bac2therac]

Eastern PA weather...great discussion here

 

[bac2therac]

 

[bac2therac]

EPAWA first call: Snow to wintry mix expected on Thursday
Summary:

Cold air will be in place ahead of the next system, which will arrive during the course of Thursday morning. The night prior will see low temperatures in the 20s, setting the stage for wintry precip to move into the region Thursday morning. Meanwhile, low pressure will move along the Southeastern US coastline to the Carolinas Thursday, and then near the DelMarVa region Thursday night and Friday morning. Predominant precipitation type starts as snow with some onset accumulations likely, then a transition to sleet and freezing rain during the afternoon from SW to NE. Freezing rain and sleet will hold on for some areas overnight in the far western, northwestern, and northern locations, while elsewhere will warm enough above freezing to see a transition to rain showers.

Impacts and Timing:

Periods of snow begin during the morning hours Thursday from SW to NE across the region, and in some cases will accumulate several inches before a transition to sleet and freezing rain occurs during the course of the afternoon hours. Sleet and freezing rain could linger north of the I-78 corridor in PA and NJ for a prolonged period Thursday afternoon, and will continue into the evening. South of I-78 in PA/NJ will see a transition to plain rain showers by Thursday evening, but sleet/freezing rain will continue for parts of North Central and Northeast PA into the overnight, especially in areas of elevation. The wintry mix overnight may include snow and sleet mixing back in for central PA locales as the system moves toward eastern New England later Thursday night, and cold air wraps in on the back side of the system.

An upper level low moves through the region Friday morning, keeping the snow showers threat in the forecast on the back side, changing ice/rain to snow as it departs, and pulls away Friday afternoon with improving conditions, and breaks of sun late in the day.

This is an early season snowfall, and ground temperatures are not as cold to deep layers below the surface. This will make the snow more of the slushy variety, but it is still expected to accumulate on all surfaces, especially along and north of I-78 in PA/NJ where Wednesday night low temperatures will be in the 20s. Farther south of I-78, snow may have trouble accumulating on main roadways, and may be limited to slushy side road and parking lot accumulations. Icing could be significant for some areas, and >0.10″ of ice can accrue in areas where the freezing rain and colder temperatures hold on longer. Power outages will be possible given the heavier weight from a combination of wet snow and freezing rain on trees and power lines. Wind should not be an issue with this system.

 

[RU848789]

NWS and most media are now in agreement on a general 1-2" (and locally up to 3") for the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC, with the lower end of that range just S/E of the Turnpike and the higher end a bit NW of there. Towards the coast current predictions are for <1", while areas NW of 95 and especially N of 78 (and west of 287) are looking at more like 2-3" with 3-5" being forecast for areas well inland like the Poconos, Sussex/Warren, NW Morris/Passaic and the Hudson Valley north of the Tappan Zee. Most of the snow/sleet for the 95 corridor would fall between about 1-7 pm with heavy rain likely after that (could be up to an inch of rain). So, the afternoon rush could be a real mess.

Note that these amounts might include some sleet, which would reduce depths of frozen precip, but would contain the same mass for driving in and snow removal (sleet is less of a visibility issue though). And areas well to the NW of 95 are also at risk of 0.1-0.2" of ice accretion from freezing rain. Still no NWS-Philly map yet for some reason and the NWS-NYC map hasn't been updated. Good chance of seeing watches for the well inland counties this morning and maybe advisories for counties SE of there to I-95, but maybe not until Weds afternoon or not at all if they continue to not buy the colder/snowier models.

Here's the interesting thing. Most of the models are showing a bit to a lot more snow for almost everyone, but I think the pros are simply discounting the models, due to climatology making it less likely to get that much snow with ocean temps in the 50s, plus not all models are showing a lot more. However, at some point, if the models continue to show more snow than forecast (an open question), tomorrow and tomorrow night, I'd expect to see increases in snowfall forecasts.

For example, the new GFS (FV3), Euro, and NAM (both the 12 km and the 3 km high-res version) are all showing 4-8" of snow/sleet (if it's a lot of sleet, depths would be less, but mass would be the same) for the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC and up to 8-12" well inland (all with a sharp cutoff towards the coast, where the coast gets very little snow). The old GFS and the Canadian are the only ones showing more like 1-3" for the 95 corridor and 3-6" well NW of 95 (and none for the coast). I don't usually like to post individual model maps, as I think they can be misleading (and people misuse them all over the internet), but if you want to see them, they all get shown on the weather boards.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1491-november-15-16-coastal-rainmixsnow/?page=50

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...scussion/?page=6&tab=comments#comment-5022545

The NWS and most media sources I've seen are simply not buying the snowier/colder solutions of the NAM, Euro, and new GFS, which continue to show several inches or more of sleet/snow for the 95 corridor Thursday afternoon into the evening. In fact, they've backed off a bit on snow/sleet predictions, forecasting about 1" of snow/sleet for the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC and 1-2" N/W of 95 (especially N/W of 78/287) and about 2-4" for far NW locations like the Poconos and parts of Sussex/Warren, Western Passaic and the Hudson Valley N/W of 287; these locations could see 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain overnight before finally changing to plain rain.

I understand the skepticism for snow/sleet, given ocean temps in the 50s and winds off the ocean for the coast and 95 (and even inland eventually), but bust potential on the snowy side is pretty high given the consistently snowier output of the NAM/Euro/new-GFS. Going to be an interesting one to follow. The NWS forecast is for the sleet/snow to change to rain along I-95 by late afternoon and for heavy rain to fall after that (an inch or so); that changeover will be slower to the NW of 95, but will still occur with mostly rain falling, except for those far inland areas that expect 2-4" of snow/sleet, above, which will likely get some freezing rain before the plain rain. Still haven't seen a snowfall map from NWS-Philly, but the updated map from the NWS-NYC is below.

 

[RU4Real]

I think the skepticism is largely because of wind & water. My weather routing software (for sailing) indicates that winds shift from northerly to easterly early tomorrow morning and with ocean temps still in the 50s there will be definite impact on air temps in the eastern third of the state.

 

[RUgrad75]

It's legit as a snowstorm for areas well N/W of the 95 corridor, as somewhere between a few and several inches of snow along with a fair amount of rain) are looking likely for the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, Sussex/Warren, Catskills and much more (6" or more) for northern NY/New England from Thursday late afternoon through Friday morning - should be a nice start for the ski areas from NE PA through NY New England.

For most of the Philly-NYC corridor, some models are showing the potential for an inch or two of snow, but it's likely that most of that is "white rain" (snow falling, but not accumulating with above 32F surface temps), followed by 1" or more of plain rain, plus we're still 3-4 days out, which is way too early to predict a Nov snowstorm for the big cities, which rarely get much snow before December (the interior is another story - decent snows are more common in mid/late Nov) - not impossible, just unlikely.

The NWS isn't buying much snow for the urban corridor at this point, as per below, but clearly discusses the potential for appreciable snow in the far NW locations. If we see the models showing appreciable snow ~24 hours from now, after all of the pieces of energy are on the North American continent (better initial data), then we can start worrying about a snow event, maybe even towards I-95.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
401 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday through Friday...A cut-off upper low positioned across the
ArkLaTex region Wednesday will get picked up and ejected
northeastward across the Ohio Valley by another upper trough digging
southward through Friday. This will result in another area of low
pressure developing and moving up the East Coast late Thursday
through Friday. With the colder air that will be in place in the
wake of the early week system and high pressure anchored initially
across New England, wintery mix (rain mixing with snow/sleet) is
looking more likely at the onset of this event, particularly our
northern-most zones and higher elevations where precip may remain a
mix of rain/snow or all snow through the majority of the event. The
onset mixed precip type may easily be experienced across even our
southern most zones. The latest ECMWF and GFS have trended faster
with precip onset time (as early as daybreak Thursday), meaning less
time to warmup with daytime heating or advection before precip
overrunning begins. The faster the system is, the more widespread
mixed precip will result. This will also depend on the exact track
of the low, which is still uncertain. All that said, temperatures
are expected to be too warm in most area for any significant or
measurable accumulations. The Poconos may have some light
accumulations, however, if temps remain cold enough. Even after
precip begins, temperatures will warm throughout the day into the
upper 30s and 40s except the Poconos where temps are more likely to
remain closer to the freezing mark. Expecting about 1-1.5 inches of
rainfall with this system as of now. Rain will come to an end by
late Friday morning with a few showers lingering through the
afternoon hours.

Hey

 

[RU848789]

Eastern PA weather...great discussion here

View embedded media

Yeah, these guys are usually pretty good. They're slightly more bullish than the NWS for snow/sleet. With several models showing a lot more snow/sleet than the forecasts, it does set up for a potential bust on the high side. The key is going to be how strong that surface low gets - the stronger it is, the greater the penetration inland of the warmer winds off the ocean and the faster the changeover to all rain and the less snow/sleet that falls. We should know by tomorrow morning how that low is developing and whether or not any surprises are in store. Regardless for most of the area the afternoon commute tomorrow is likely going to be a mess.

 

[RUgrad75]

Now you're just being difficult. Thread title said cool for the air temps (low/mid-40s), which was spot on. Thread title said windy with wind chills in the mid-30s, which was also spot on. Text in the threads said the wind chill would be cold, which it was for everyone except @DJ Spanky, who was wearing shorts (I was not, lol). I know people sometimes disagree with my personal definition of things like cool and cold or light or moderate precip, which is why I always provide the expected temps, rainfall amounts, etc., so people can decide on their own. I really have no idea what your issue is here.

He numbers Traveling central Jersey to Valdosta Ga, down 95 mostly, leaving Sunday AM, I know it’s early, will I need to pack shovel too???

 

[RU848789]

I think the skepticism is largely because of wind & water. My weather routing software (for sailing) indicates that winds shift from northerly to easterly early tomorrow morning and with ocean temps still in the 50s there will be definite impact on air temps in the eastern third of the state.

Absolutely; said that earlier and just reiterated that a few seconds ago, along with the variable of how strong the low is and how quickly it pushes that warm air inland at the surface (for rain) or aloft first (for sleet and/or freezing rain, especially inland). The fascinating thing is the sharp contrast in the forecast with the much snowier forecasts from some of the best models, like the Euro and NAM (in the short range). I wonder if those models will continue to show snowier solutions at 12Z today and if that would change their thinking...

 

[RU848789]

He numbers Traveling central Jersey to Valdosta Ga, down 95 mostly, leaving Sunday AM, I know it’s early, will I need to pack shovel too???

You'll have zero weather issues on Sunday.

 

[RU848789]

NWS is having tech issues with posting their usual maps for the Philly region, but this one is actually even nicer, as it combines info from several offices. If the NWS sticks with this forecast - and the 12Z models today don't look too different from yesterday (Euro, NAM and GFS-FV3 all showing several inches of snow for I-95 area, while the GFS, CMC, and RGEM show 1-2"), so I'm not sure why they'd change their forecast much - then I'd expect to see advisories for NW Montgomery, NW Bucks, Hunterdon, Morris, Passaic, and Bergen and all counties NW of those in eastern PA and NW NJ (and the whole Hudson Valley). Somerset is a maybe as is western Essex and western Union; anywhere S/E of those counties would likely not get advisories, i.e., all of the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC and LI. We'll see...

 

[RU848789]

Looking at the models and weather boards, my strong suspicion is that the NWS is predicting much less snowfall than we're seeing in many models due to ratios and sleet, mostly, plus some melting. It looks like it has to do with the models reporting "snow that falls" from the sky (without melting and accumulating at a 10":1 ratio) vs. looking at how much snow will actually accumulate on the ground, given poor snow/liquid ratios in what is falling, combined with possibly significant melting/compaction on the ground and assuming some of the frozen precip is sleet, which has a very high density (low ratio of frozen depth to frozen mass).

Looking at one model kind of shows this. Below is the snowfall graphic for the high resolution 3 km NAM model assuming 10:1 ratio, showing 6" or more of snow for I-95 and NW of there, whereas the next graphic shows the Ferrier algorithm for snow, which takes into account low ratios and sleet, but apparently not melting, which may be why the NWS numbers are even lower than the Ferrier ones in some locations. Huge difference in the snowfall maps from these two different algorithms and I'm pretty sure this is the main reason for the discrepancies between the models and the forecasts (and the low ratios/sleet/melting are very connected to the warm air aloft emanating from the warm ocean).

Keep in mind, however, that if we see 1" of sleet, that's the equivalent of about 3-4" of snow, so even if it doesn't look as pretty, it contains the same mass of frozen precip, so it'll be just as hard to drive in, plow and shovel as 3-4" of "standard" 10:1 snow/liquid ratio snow (except for the visibility, which will be fine in sleet). However, it's also just possible that the NWS and local forecasters will be wrong and the models will be more correct.

 

[RU848789]

NWS is having tech issues with posting their usual maps for the Philly region, but this one is actually even nicer, as it combines info from several offices. If the NWS sticks with this forecast - and the 12Z models today don't look too different from yesterday (Euro, NAM and GFS-FV3 all showing several inches of snow for I-95 area, while the GFS, CMC, and RGEM show 1-2"), so I'm not sure why they'd change their forecast much - then I'd expect to see advisories for NW Montgomery, NW Bucks, Hunterdon, Morris, Passaic, and Bergen and all counties NW of those in eastern PA and NW NJ (and the whole Hudson Valley). Somerset is a maybe as is western Essex and western Union; anywhere S/E of those counties would likely not get advisories, i.e., all of the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC and LI. We'll see...

Winter weather advisories up from the NWS-NYC for 1-3" for Union, Essex, and Eastern Passaic/Eastern Bergen. Advisories are for 2-4" for Western Passaic/Bergen and for Orange/Putnam/Westchester/Rockland (and all of southern CT). No advisories for Hudson, or all of NYC/LI. Mostly fits with the map they put out earlier. I would expect advisories from NWS-Philly for Morris SW through Somerset, Hunterdon, and NW Bucks/Montco and counties in E PA and NW NJ NW of that line, but not for Philly, eastern Bucks/Montco, Mercer, Middlesex and points SE of there. And some counties will see significant differences, such as SE Middlesex will be much wetter than NW Middlesex. Discussion is below, also.

National Weather Service New York NY
323 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

The next impactful storm system will move into the region on
Thursday bringing our first good bout of snow chances for the
season. The low pressure tracking north up the east coast will
bring a slug of moisture and gusty winds starting by mid-day
Thursday. The timing of the system look to bring the initial
round of precip as snow to much of the region by mid day.
Heaviest snowfall is expected along the coast during the first
few hours of the afternoon, generally between 1 and 4 pm before
switching over to snow as warmer air intrudes. This transition
from snow to rain will begin along the coast/NYC and move inland
through the evening, with some sleet or freezing rain possible
during the transition as well. As for snowfall amounts, for the
NYC/Long Island area expecting a slushy inch or two, with more
accumulation likely on grassy surfaces. Meanwhile, areas along
the coast can expect 1-3 inches with 2-4 inches further inland.
Given these amounts and the fact that this is our first real
winter system of the season, a Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued Thursday afternoon/night for much of the region,
excluding Long Island and the NYC metro. Ice accretion to around
a quarter inch is possible in the Hudson Valley where the
predominant ely flow will likely remain backed further to the
north. Temperatures during the day reach the low 30s inland and
the mid to upper 30s elsewhere.

Model agreement is fairly good in placing the low center over
the south/central NJ coast by early Friday morning. As it
approaches and deepens, the surface pressure gradient tightens
significantly while at the same time a good LLJ moves over the
coast. This will mean gusty winds Thursday night into Friday, in
especially along the coast and over the waters. A Gale Warning
has been issued for late Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning for gusts of 35-40 kts.

 

[RUHoopsguard]

Thanks for all who post on these weather threads. I see this as a nuisance storm; but one that most municipalities/cities and NJ are NOT prepared for--so sent a memo to all employees to use good judgement and work from home Friday depending on their commutes--(some work within 40 blocks of our NYC offices) and to come in as early as possible tomorrow with the thought they can leave anytime from 10:30 onward depending on weather/reliability of their commutes.
Appreciate very much all of your perspectives. Seems to me the first storm of the season always surprises, either because of lack of preparation or out-performing--Good luck to all that venture out tomorrow afternoon.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Thanks for all who post on these weather threads. I see this as a nuisance storm; but one that most municipalities/cities and NJ are NOT prepared for...

That's my biggest concern right there.

 

[retired711]

Thanks for all who post on these weather threads. I see this as a nuisance storm; but one that most municipalities/cities and NJ are NOT prepared for--so sent a memo to all employees to use good judgement and work from home Friday depending on their commutes--(some work within 40 blocks of our NYC offices) and to come in as early as possible tomorrow with the thought they can leave anytime from 10:30 onward depending on weather/reliability of their commutes.
Appreciate very much all of your perspectives. Seems to me the first storm of the season always surprises, either because of lack of preparation or out-performing--Good luck to all that venture out tomorrow afternoon.

That's good advice to your employees. You're a good boss. Keep in mind that Friday will probably just be rain -- although cold rain -- and that the rain will stop about 1 p.m.

 

[bac2therac]

Mt Holly...Winter Weather Advisory for most of central jersey proper....probably more to the lower end of the totals the further to 95 and more to the nw areas of the advisory

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
331 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ103-105-106-150845-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0019.181115T1500Z-181116T0200Z/
Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick,
Trenton, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, Perkasie,
Morrisville, and Doylestown
331 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and northwest New Jersey
and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 9 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

 

[bac2therac]

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The big story will be the deepening coastal storm which will
affect the area with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain for
Thursday, Thursday night into early Friday. This will be a
moisture laden system so expect the precip to be moderate to
heavy at times. Winter Weather Advisories are now in effect from
our counties through the I-95 corridor and points N/W.

Early in the day Thursday, low pressure will be centered near the
Carolina coast with a cold high centered over New England. The
leading edge of the precip looks to make its way into the area
through the morning...beginning around 7 AM over the Delmarva,
reaching the Philly around mid morning and northern areas of the
CWA around midday into the early afternoon. The biggest
challenge will be precipitation types. The low is progged to
take a track north along the coast through the day reaching a
point over eastern Virginia or the Chesapeake Bay by Thursday
evening. Due to the cold airmass in place at the onset, most
areas look to start as snow or snow mixed with sleet and
freezing rain Thursday morning. The exception will be parts of
the Delmarva and the NJ coast where it may be pretty much all
rain due to strengthening NE winds bringing in milder marine air
(advisory level winds expected here by late day). However,
going through the late morning and beyond, the strengthening
easterly flow and warm advection pattern to the north of the low
will result in the profiles warming...especially aloft. This
will result in snow and sleet generally transitioning to a
wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and eventually rain
from south to north. That said, a complicating factor that may
delay this process will be that the soundings will be fairly dry
initially and so as they saturate they may tend to briefly
cool. Also, as the precip becomes heavier midday through the
afternoon this may tend to cool soundings and flip precip
towards a period of moderate snow at times, even around Philly.
The upshot is several hours of a messy wintry mix can be
expected Thursday along the I-95 corridor warranting the Winter
Weather Advisory. In fact, for the reasons mentioned above, we
are forecasting temperatures a bit cooler than the model
consensus...leaning toward the NAM which tends to perform well
in these types of situations. By late afternoon though, most of
the I-95 corridor at least from around Trenton south should be
mainly rain and this may fall moderate to heavy at times due to
strong deep layer lift and anomalously moist conditions. In
fact we may have hydro concerns and this is further discussed in
the section below.

Thursday night...low pressure continues advancing north while rapidly
deepening...taking a track right along the coast or just
inland. The transition for snow/wintry mix to rain should
continue south to north except that areas north of the I-78/I-80
corridor look to stay below freezing meaning snow and ice look
to continue through the storm`s duration. Farther south, with
the low tracking near or right overhead this may result in a
lull in the precipitation Thursday evening as a dry slot may try
to work in from the south. Daytime highs over the I-95 corridor
will only be in the 30s but as the low moves through this will
draw up milder air so actually expect temps to rise into
Thursday night. In fact parts of NJ and the Delmarva look to
temporarily rise into the 40s to low 50s.

By the late Thursday night early Friday time frame, the low looks to
be near NYC and will be drawing in very strong NW winds with
falling temperatures in its wake. This could result in a
changeover back to snow as far south as Philly or at least the
Philly suburbs as temperatures fall back through the 30s with
the cold advection in the low`s wake. In fact, this "backlash"
snow could even be briefly heavy as the low continues to rapidly
deepen as it pulls away. The good news is that the precip
should move out by mid to late morning with gusty west winds
continuing through the day though in the system`s wake due to
the strong pressure gradient

Total snow amounts Thursday look to be upwards of an inch or two
around the I-95 corridor with some icing on top of this before
the change to rain occurs Thursday night. Amounts increase
heading NW with upwards of 2-4 inches of snow expected over the
southern Poconos followed by one to two tenths of an inch of
ice. In fact, depending on how much heavy precip falls before
the snow changes over upwards of 5-6 inches could fall in spots
over the southern Poconos. Total liquid QPF with the system
looks to generally be 1.5 to 2 inches...heaviest over coastal NJ
into the Delmarva where it will be mainly rain thus leading to
the possible hydro concerns.
&&

 

[bac2therac]

Mt Holly is saying start time around mid morning in Philly which means shortly there after by noon everywhere else..note many times the precip moves in quicker than anticipation so watch for that. Looks like the main crux of travel issues is probably from the noon to 8 PM timeframe for central jersey....while to the north later depending how far nw the warm air gets....watch for brief backlash burst of snow at the end Friday morning as the rain could change back to snow before ending

 

[krup]

So I am guessing that the Lehigh Valley looks to be a good bet for early dismissal from school tomorrow?

 

[RU848789]

So I am guessing that the Lehigh Valley looks to be a good bet for early dismissal from school tomorrow?

Yes...

 

[RU848789]

Winter weather advisories up from the NWS-NYC for 1-3" for Union, Essex, and Eastern Passaic/Eastern Bergen. Advisories are for 2-4" for Western Passaic/Bergen and for Orange/Putnam/Westchester/Rockland (and all of southern CT). No advisories for Hudson, or all of NYC/LI. Mostly fits with the map they put out earlier. I would expect advisories from NWS-Philly for Morris SW through Somerset, Hunterdon, and NW Bucks/Montco and counties in E PA and NW NJ NW of that line, but not for Philly, eastern Bucks/Montco, Mercer, Middlesex and points SE of there. And some counties will see significant differences, such as SE Middlesex will be much wetter than NW Middlesex. Discussion is below, also.

National Weather Service New York NY
323 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

The next impactful storm system will move into the region on
Thursday bringing our first good bout of snow chances for the
season. The low pressure tracking north up the east coast will
bring a slug of moisture and gusty winds starting by mid-day
Thursday. The timing of the system look to bring the initial
round of precip as snow to much of the region by mid day.
Heaviest snowfall is expected along the coast during the first
few hours of the afternoon, generally between 1 and 4 pm before
switching over to snow as warmer air intrudes. This transition
from snow to rain will begin along the coast/NYC and move inland
through the evening, with some sleet or freezing rain possible
during the transition as well. As for snowfall amounts, for the
NYC/Long Island area expecting a slushy inch or two, with more
accumulation likely on grassy surfaces. Meanwhile, areas along
the coast can expect 1-3 inches with 2-4 inches further inland.
Given these amounts and the fact that this is our first real
winter system of the season, a Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued Thursday afternoon/night for much of the region,
excluding Long Island and the NYC metro. Ice accretion to around
a quarter inch is possible in the Hudson Valley where the
predominant ely flow will likely remain backed further to the
north. Temperatures during the day reach the low 30s inland and
the mid to upper 30s elsewhere.

Model agreement is fairly good in placing the low center over
the south/central NJ coast by early Friday morning. As it
approaches and deepens, the surface pressure gradient tightens
significantly while at the same time a good LLJ moves over the
coast. This will mean gusty winds Thursday night into Friday, in
especially along the coast and over the waters. A Gale Warning
has been issued for late Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning for gusts of 35-40 kts.

And NWS-Philly issued advisories for Middlesex down through Salem in SW NJ and all counties NW of there in PA and NJ (still no map, though, lol). The Advisories are grouped as follows:

• For the counties in SNJ/SE PA along the Delaware from Mercer/Montgomery down to Salem/Chester, they're only calling for an inch or less of snow/sleet - the advisories are for the potential of a light glaze of freezing rain during the transition from snow/sleet to rain tomorrow late afternoon.
• For Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, Bucks and Upper Montco the advisories are for 1-3" of snow/sleet and then a possible freezing rain glaze during the transition to rain in the early evening.
• For Morris, Warren, Berks, Lehigh and Northampton the Advisories are for 1-3" of snow and 0.1" of an ice glace during the transition to rain, which will be late at night.
• Finally for Sussex, Carbon and Monroe, the Advisories are for 2-4" of sleet and snow and up to 0.2" of freezing rain; in these locations the change to rain will likely be after midnight.
• For most locations, except far NW areas (like Sussex/Poconos), there will likely be an inch or so of rain after the transition, so most/all of the snow/sleet will likely be washed away.

Also, here's the NWS map for the whole eastern region - local offices still not updating theiir maps for some reason...