OT: First winter storm end of week?

[kcg88]

40 minute commute from Trenton to South Brunswick took 2.5 hours.

 

[RU848789]

I was in school and working for the CofE. The wife (to be) had to be at a client in the city and my car was in the shop, so I switched with her for the day. Dropped her off at the NB train station in the morning and went to my office on Busch.

When the snow started seriously coming down she called me and said "I'm leaving, my train gets in at 3:20". I hung out for a little and decided to head on over the bridge. I'd be way early, but figured I'd hang out somewhere around College Ave for a little bit.

At 2:30 I was still sitting on Rt. 18, just at the beginning of the river dorms underpass. Nothing had moved for an hour. So I shut off the car, left it where it was and walked to the train station to meet her. We had meal at the McDonald's and hiked back to the car. Three hours after I had left it, everything and everyone was still in the exact same spot.

We made it to my house in Sayreville sometime around 8:30.

Nice. Had a couple of friends who did the same thing, one on 18, like you, and one on Metlars Lane, which was near our house (my roommates parents owned it and rented it to a bunch of us) in P'way, who just walked to our place and became part of the Melody story...

 

[ruready4somefootball]

yes this will be a positive bust for snowlovers....NWS going to bust badly with this one and will have xplaining to do

Say What???

 

[Abro1975]

Gridlock everywhere in N NJ. Accidents everywhere.

 

[RU848789]

Tool over 2 hours to get home from work. Left New Brunswick at 245 and pulled into driveway in Piscataway at 5pm. A 9 mile commute.

That sucks, but 9 miles from NB to P'way? Were you serpentining?

 

[ruready4somefootball]

This was a HUGE bust today! Not the storm, but the awful job by the weather forecasters. They screwed up all DPW activities for the state, counties, and towns by saying it would mostly be rain.

Oh well, we are off to a 0-1 start for the season.

It was a call by WeatherAl, he didn't put the DPW on Plow Alert.

 

[daneman100]

It is a disaster out there. Do not remember a time when I saw more disabled vehicles on major roads.

 

[RUChoppin]

Say What???

"Positive bust" - meaning they missed badly by underpredicting, rather than overpredicting.

 

[RU848789]

Finally a snowfall map from the NWS-Philly (but not from the website, lol) and an updated map from NYC. Basically 1-2" for the 95 corridor, as the NWS said earlier. Pretty consistent with NYC forecasts I've seen and TWC and others. Several models still showing more...

Also, here's DT/WxRisk's map - more bullish than usual, with 2-4" for the 95 corridor from just NW of Philly to Trenton to NB to NYC. That would only be a mild surprise, given what many models are showing.

So, last night I was looking around to see if I could find anyone with the chutzpah to forecast closer to what most of the models were saying (especially the Euro/NAM, where the Euro is the best global model and the NAM is a very good mesoscale model within 24-36 hours) and the only one I could find was DT/WxRisk, who had the 95-corridor at 2-4" and just NW of 95 at 4-7", which is pretty close to what we'll end up with. I had to post it since it just seemed so odd that all the forecasts were ignoring those models. Congrats DT!

 

[MGSA99]

Nice. Had a couple of friends who did the same thing, one on 18, like you, and one on Metlars Lane, which was near our house (my roommates parents owned it and rented it to a bunch of us) in P'way, who just walked to our place and became part of the Melody story...

Reminds me of the Married With Children episode where the family leaves for vacation on Labor Day weekend and gets stuck in traffic. Peg gets out of the car and walks home and comes back right where she found them.

 

[Postman_1]

Drove from Edison to Hamilton. Took about 2 hours. The turnpike south wasnt to bad. However getting to it was horrible. Rt 18 sucked. I'd estimate about 3" in Hamilton. It was heavy to shovel too. Im in for the night just cracked a Icarus Neon Fantasy beer. Drive safe everyone!!

 

[ScarletStateofNJ]

Have been driving through the side streets of Jersey City for 80 minutes trying to get to the Pulaski skyway

 

[rurichdog]

280 shut down in numerous spots
Bayonne Bridge shut down

 

[Toddwills00]

Work in the City live in Howell. My wife said its mostly rain at home but the city is a mess. Port Authority is currently shut so will have to wait it out. Sounds like I will be WFH tomorrow.

 

[sport2231]

7 inches in Kinnelon NJ so far. I’m a bit elevated but not a ton and I’m still at 24 degrees. Have a weather station on my deck so that is literally a IMBY temperature

I was the one that got 29 inches last year in that storm where many of you got 6-10. Amazing what being a little north and a little higher up can do

 

[RU848789]

Check the news - video of people walking across the GWB after abandoning their cars. Insane.

 

[Ronnie_B]

It is a disaster out there. Do not remember a time when I saw more disabled vehicles on major roads.

Probably because there was never a rush hour in a storm like this, if they got the forecast correct a lot of people would have stayed home from work or if they did go in leave early, either way their would have been much less traffic on the highways. Also factor in road crews would have been out in full force clearing the roads for the few cars on it. Took me over two hours to get home when it usually just takes me 25 mins.

 

[R1766U]

Whats the morning commute looking like for Middlesex County?

 

[Ronnie_B]

I was talking with a friend and we both had the same thought - maybe weathermen are relying on computer models too much because the last few years they really do seem to be more wrong than they use to be. But I also really have no clue what they do or how they go about it so better chance I'm talking out of my ass here.

 

[fatsam98]

Can't remember a bigger clusterf than this up here in North Jersey. Stuck at work.

 

[Plum Street]

Should we shovel this or will it melt?

 

[Ronnie_B]

Check the news - video of people walking across the GWB after abandoning their cars. Insane.

 

[rurichdog]

This never would have happened if Gary Szatkowski was still running the joint in Mount Holly

 

[sport2231]

Definitely a warm layer in the upper atmosphere. I’m still sitting at 24 degrees with heavy snow but you can hear some sleet mixed in. Not sure if that is good or bad.

Did my first shovel since I don’t want to attempt 10 inches of snow and ice later

 

[Ronnie_B]

Definitely a warm layer in the upper atmosphere. I’m still sitting at 24 degrees with heavy snow but you can hear some sleet mixed in. Not sure if that is good or bad.

Did my first shovel since I don’t want to attempt 10 inches of snow and ice later

You must be North Jersey

 

[sport2231]

You must be North Jersey

Yes. Very northern Morris county. 7 inches so far

 

[RU4Real]

This never would have happened if Gary Szatkowski was still running the joint in Mount Holly

I thought the exact same thing.

 

[RU848789]

As of 5:15 pm we had 6.25" of snow on the ground (been about 1.5" per hour since 1 pm) and it started sleeting. As of 5:35 pm it's now 90% sleet and pouring down at 31F. Note that in those 20 minutes, the snow compacted to 5.75", so if anyone measures well after the sleet starts, they'll likely see compaction. Would've easily verified a warning and barely had an advisory this morning. Just saw a report of people stuck on the GWB for 3+ hours - my worst nightmare.

As of 6:45 pm, it's still just 30F here and we have gotten 1/2" of sleet in the 90 minutes since it started sleeting heavily (I cleared the board from the 6.25" of snow at 5:15 pm). That makes sense as sleet is usually a ~3:1 ratio, so 1/2" of sleet is equivalent to about 1.6" of 10:1 snow, which would translate to a little over 1" per hour rates for the last 90 minutes.

 

[RUaMoose]

I didn’t even try to drive home from LSP. Went back to exchange via LR then path to Nwk. Nwk penn a mess. Couldn’t get on a RVL train so I got on a NEC train to Edison. Bad move. Traffic brutal. Wife couldn’t get to me so I walked to the Brickhouse in S Plainfield. Waiting for a lift

 

[RU848789]

I was talking with a friend and we both had the same thought - maybe weathermen are relying on computer models too much because the last few years they really do seem to be more wrong than they use to be. But I also really have no clue what they do or how they go about it so better chance I'm talking out of my ass here.

Sometimes yes, but not in this case. If they had relied on the models this time, they would've predicted several inches of snow for the 95 corridor and NW of there, which was being predicted by the Euro for days (the best global model) and by the NAM in the last 24-36 hours (where this mesoscale model is very good). Instead they were probably relying on climatology too much, since getting more than 1-2" in Nov in the 95 corridor is rare. Or some were relying on the GFS model, which consistently showed only an inch or two for 95 (but it's not a great model and mets should know that). Like I just said in another post, WxRisk was the only pro I saw predicting as much as 2-4" for 95 yesterday and I looked pretty hard. Going to be a pretty interesting after action review at the NWS and for every media outlet in this region.

 

[Wolv RU]

I thought the exact same thing.

People are always thinking things were better with Gary around. Maybe that Gary can be brought back as well?

 

[retired711]

I was talking with a friend and we both had the same thought - maybe weathermen are relying on computer models too much because the last few years they really do seem to be more wrong than they use to be. But I also really have no clue what they do or how they go about it so better chance I'm talking out of my ass here.

This seems to be the other way around: the forecasters didn't believe what the models were telling them, and instead predicted for less than the models showed. RU#s has been tracking this ever since the predictions started.

 

[RU4Real]

People are always thinking things were better with Gary around. Maybe that Gary can be brought back as well?

Gary Szatkowski has retired. He's still pretty active on Twitter but so far hasn't critiqued the forecast - although there's a good chance that he will, at some point.

 

[retired711]

Sometimes yes, but not in this case. If they had relied on the models this time, they would've predicted several inches of snow for the 95 corridor and NW of there, which was being predicted by the Euro for days (the best global model) and by the NAM in the last 24-36 hours (where this mesoscale model is very good). Instead they were probably relying on climatology too much, since getting more than 1-2" in Nov in the 95 corridor is rare. Or some were relying on the GFS model, which consistently showed only an inch or two for 95 (but it's not a great model and mets should know that). Like I just said in another post, WxRisk was the only pro I saw predicting as much as 2-4" for 95 yesterday and I looked pretty hard. Going to be a pretty interesting after action review at the NWS and for every media outlet in this region.

You beat me to it: good!

 

[sport2231]

Sometimes yes, but not in this case. If they had relied on the models this time, they would've predicted several inches of snow for the 95 corridor and NW of there, which was being predicted by the Euro for days (the best global model) and by the NAM in the last 24-36 hours (where this mesoscale model is very good). Instead they were probably relying on climatology too much, since getting more than 1-2" in Nov in the 95 corridor is rare. Or some were relying on the GFS model, which consistently showed only an inch or two for 95 (but it's not a great model and mets should know that). Like I just said in another post, WxRisk was the only pro I saw predicting as much as 2-4" for 95 yesterday and I looked pretty hard. Going to be a pretty interesting after action review at the NWS and for every media outlet in this region.

I’ve found GFS to be way to warm for most winter storms last couple years. I have really liked the NAM 60 hours in

 

[Ronnie_B]

This seems to be the other way around: the forecasters didn't believe what the models were telling them, and instead predicted for less than the models showed. RU#s has been tracking this ever since the predictions started.

No shit? Wow

 

[RU848789]

This never would have happened if Gary Szatkowski was still running the joint in Mount Holly

I know Gary and he's a very good met, but I doubt he would've prevented this bust, as Mt. Holly still had some bad ones over the years under his watch (Sandy was the worst). Check the weather boards - some really great pros out there who are kicking themselves, since they saw the models but couldn't bring themselves to pull the trigger on more snow in the forecast - groupthink at play a bit, IMO.

 

[RU848789]

6" in Central Park and it ain't over; this makes this the second snowiest November day in NYC history, only beat by 11/29/1882 when 9" fell. That record should still stand, I think.

 

[Ronnie_B]

Sometimes yes, but not in this case. If they had relied on the models this time, they would've predicted several inches of snow for the 95 corridor and NW of there, which was being predicted by the Euro for days (the best global model) and by the NAM in the last 24-36 hours (where this mesoscale model is very good). Instead they were probably relying on climatology too much, since getting more than 1-2" in Nov in the 95 corridor is rare. Or some were relying on the GFS model, which consistently showed only an inch or two for 95 (but it's not a great model and mets should know that). Like I just said in another post, WxRisk was the only pro I saw predicting as much as 2-4" for 95 yesterday and I looked pretty hard. Going to be a pretty interesting after action review at the NWS and for every media outlet in this region.

It is really is a thankless job, if you're on the money, well that's your job, but if you're off the mark, it's open season.

 

[RU848789]

This seems to be the other way around: the forecasters didn't believe what the models were telling them, and instead predicted for less than the models showed. RU#s has been tracking this ever since the predictions started.

Well said...