OT: Hurricane Lee now a Cat 1 hurricane - likely landfall as near Cat 1 in Canada (or maybe far eastern Maine) on 9/16-17

[T2Kplus20]

Once again, you've left the entire population with a binary choice: You're either stupid, or a liar. There are no other options.

Everyone in the thread agrees with me, not you. We are over 8 days out. As per the Wash Post:

"On Oct. 21, 2012, the European model projected that a young tropical storm south of Jamaica would merge with a cold front and slam the northern Mid-Atlantic eight days later. The American one, meanwhile, showed Sandy veering well out to sea. Not for three to four more days would the American model begin projecting a track similar to the European, depicting Sandy’s infamous left hook into the New Jersey shoreline."

You Lose Again! LOL.

 

[e5fdny]

If, somehow, Lee comes our way, it would likely be next Friday into Saturday. Wouldn't bet on it, but it's a non-zero probability. Regardless, the surf is going to be pretty wild starting early next week through the week.

My Wife is a teacher so she’ll be too busy at work to join (and YELL at me - LOL) me at the beach.

 

[e5fdny]

Most people can walk and chew gum at the same time! :)

And one day you’ll figure it out.

We know with your stride it’s hard but we’re all pulling for you. You can do it.👍

 

[wheezer]

Not true at all my guy. Models were in remarkable agreement on a hard left turn and east coast strike 9 days prior to Sandy’s landfall and held steady. In fact, it was one of the best long range model verifications for an event of that size ever, up there with the forecasting of the 1993 superstorm.

That said, Lee doesn’t pose a threat to the US other than a glancing blow, there isn’t any blocking and certainly nothing like the Omega block that cause Sandy to turn.

I remember it the same
South Jersey was predicted ground zero for a good number of days before
I was hoping it would change as the days went by but it did not

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Most people can walk and chew gum at the same time! :)

It's also good to keep a check on "weather" threads turning into unwarranted climate change proselytizing.

 

[T2Kplus20]

It's also good to keep a check on "weather" threads turning into unwarranted climate change proselytizing.

Truth! Lots of climate change crying wolf in these threads.

 

[Kbee3]

It's also good to keep a check on "weather" threads turning into unwarranted climate change proselytizing.

Truth! Lots of climate change crying wolf in these threads.

The same bullchit from the same two Luddites endlessly.
Are you two clowns at least getting paid by the fossil fuel industry for your garbage ?

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

The same bullchit from the same two Luddites endlessly.
Are you two clowns at least getting paid by the fossil fuel industry for your garbage ?

lol

 

[Brisket and Bourbon]

Not true. Only the EURO was accurate on Oct 21 (8 days out). The US models didn't align for another 3-5 days. No consensus until that Thursday/Friday (storm hit on Monday).

The ECMWF absolutely nailed sandy…it was steady as I’ve ever seen a model be about a big storm…maybe ever since I began meteorology in 1989…remarkable, actually.

 

[RUScrew85]

Everyone.

I think 4real is subtly trying to point out he's smarter than everyone. 😄

 

[mikemarc1]

The ECMWF absolutely nailed sandy…it was steady as I’ve ever seen a model be about a big storm…maybe ever since I began meteorology in 1989…remarkable, actually.

And the ECMWF model is the most western model for Lee..which bears watching

 

[RU4Real]

I think 4real is subtly trying to point out he's smarter than everyone. 😄

No. 4Real is simply trying to point out that he was bullish on the Euro from Day 1 because it had done a great job with the tropical season to that point. And also that he (I mean me, of course) was getting daily updates from Gary Szatkowski, who was Chief Met at Mt. Holly at the time and who was also very bullish on the Euro solution. I was admin of a FB page at the time dedicated to emergency prep in CNJ and Gary was a key source of info.

At any rate, as others have pointed out, the Euro absolutely nailed Sandy while all of the other models proved to be outliers.

 

[RU848789]

Not true. Only the EURO was accurate on Oct 21 (8 days out). The US models didn't align for another 3-5 days. No consensus until that Thursday/Friday (storm hit on Monday).

When the Euro, the best model, shows a landfalling hurricane in the NE US with every model run from 8 days in only morons would discount it and call Sandy a fish storm, which is what you did. Also, while there was still some model spread 5 days out, the NHC 5-day forecast showed our area as the center of the forecast track for Sandy, not at 3 days, as you're implying.

And if we had archives of this site, it would show you continuing to downplay Sandy as close as 3 days from landfall, which is when you were banned from the thread, as people were tired of your shtick (they still are) especially in a life-threatening situation for most of the board. It would be better if you would just stfu in this thread.

 

[RU848789]

Not true at all my guy. Models were in remarkable agreement on a hard left turn and east coast strike 9 days prior to Sandy’s landfall and held steady. In fact, it was one of the best long range model verifications for an event of that size ever, up there with the forecasting of the 1993 superstorm.

That said, Lee doesn’t pose a threat to the US other than a glancing blow, there isn’t any blocking and certainly nothing like the Omega block that cause Sandy to turn.

That's not true. The Euro was alone in consistently showing Sandy's left hook into the NE US from about Day 8/9 until maybe Day 6, when other models started coming around, which is why the NHC's forecast track moved to a NJ landfall at Day 5 from landfall, as I just posted. The GFS didn't come around to a landfalling hurricane until 4 days before landfall, as per below.

 

[RUScrew85]

I keep checking this thread and seeing hurricane maps hitting NJ and get excited until I realize it's just Sandy Shit Flinging.

You go Girls!

 

[T2Kplus20]

That's not true. The Euro was alone in consistently showing Sandy's left hook into the NE US from about Day 8/9 until maybe Day 6, when other models started coming around, which is why the NHC's forecast track moved to a NJ landfall at Day 5 from landfall, as I just posted. The GFS didn't come around to a landfalling hurricane until 4 days before landfall, as per below.

Thanks for agreeing with me (and the WaPo quote I posted) and proving my point.

 

[BigEastPhil]

And the ECMWF model is the most western model for Lee..which bears watching

Interesting. Does this model have a land interaction and if so - where?

 

[RU848789]

Back to Lee, which continues to rapidly intensify and could be a major hurricane (111 mph or more) with the 5 pm update and is on its way to being a Cat 5 hurricane with 160 mph (at least).

With regard to track, operational models beyond 6-7 days is kind of foolhardy, but today's 12Z Euro again shows a Nova Scotia landfall in 9-10 days as a Cat 2/3 hurricane (or more likely a system transitioning from tropical to extratropical), while the GFS and CMC remain east of that (with Newfoundland landfalls).

The Euro has Lee missing NJ by 300 miles, but only misses Cape Cod by 125 miles and NE Maine by 50 miles. More importantly, the Euro ensembles have a few members (out of 51 model runs with randomly perturbed initial conditions, iirc) as far west as Long Island, which, given how far away we are from landfall (8/9 days to reach our latitude), means our area is not 100.0% out of the woods (close though).

 

[retired711]

Once again, you've left the entire population with a binary choice: You're either stupid, or a liar. There are no other options.

You're doing exactly what he wants by responding to him. My advice: put him on ignore, as I just did. I've had him on ignore before, but have given him a number of chances. He keeps flubbing them.

 

[RU848789]

Thanks for agreeing with me (and the WaPo quote I posted) and proving my point.

I only agreed with the WaPo quote. Your eaerlier posts were incorrect and the main point is that you were calling Sandy a non-threat as late as 3 days before landfall, which was simply irresponsible, which was why you got thread-banned.

 

[retired711]

I only agreed with the WaPo quote. Your eaerlier posts were incorrect and the main point is that you were calling Sandy a non-threat as late as 3 days before landfall, which was simply irresponsible, which was why you got thread-banned.

You also should put him on "ignore," and stop gratifying his desire for response. There is a saying that dogs and children both prefer negative attention to no attention; the saying applies to this poster.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I only agreed with the WaPo quote. Your eaerlier posts were incorrect and the main point is that you were calling Sandy a non-threat as late as 3 days before landfall, which was simply irresponsible, which was why you got thread-banned.

Thanks for agreeing with me on the Sandy models. Also, if you have any evidence of my Sandy posts, please quote/bump.

LOL!

 

[mikemarc1]

Interesting. Does this model have a land interaction and if so - where?

See #s posts

 

[Brisket and Bourbon]

And the ECMWF model is the most western model for Lee..which bears watching

12Z ECMWF definitely has it affecting eastern New England.

Canadian model? …a fish beater

GFS? Maybe Nova Scotia…

🐻🐻👀 (bears watching)

 

[pmvon]

Thanks for agreeing with me on the Sandy models. Also, if you have any evidence of my Sandy posts, please quote/bump.

LOL!

Dude your act is old and annoying. Every damn thread you pop in with the same nonsense. Most people like and appreciate the info. They also understand that predicting Mother Nature isn’t an exact science. So stop with the you said this he said that bs. Don’t you have anything better to do?

 

[RUScrew85]

12Z ECMWF definitely has it affecting eastern New England.

Canadian model? …a fish beater

GFS? Maybe Nova Scotia…

🐻🐻👀 (bears watching)

I bet the fish love a good hurricane. They can't drown and the waves are probably fun.

 

[RUGuitarMan]

Hurricane Lee has rapidly intensified into a category 4 hurricane this afternoon with 130 mph sustained winds. Dropped 30 millibars between the last 2 updates. It could become a category 5 hurricane over the next day.

 

[Brisket and Bourbon]

I bet the fish love a good hurricane. They can't drown and the waves are probably fun.

Hurricanes also upwell cold water so there will be a trail (wake) of temporarily nutrient rich cold water trailing the storm…

 

[T2Kplus20]

Dude your act is old and annoying. Every damn thread you pop in with the same nonsense. Most people like and appreciate the info. They also understand that predicting Mother Nature isn’t an exact science. So stop with the you said this he said that bs. Don’t you have anything better to do?

Don't whine to me, Numbers started the he said she said. Go yell at the right person.

 

[RU848789]

Wow, not only a Cat 2 now, with 105 mph winds, but a strong Cat 2 as Lee is in the midst of a rapid intensification cycle - at this rate will be Cat 4 (130 mph+) by late tonight and Cat 5 by Sunday, but will weaken some after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 16.4N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.1N 51.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 18.2N 54.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 19.2N 56.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 21.5N 61.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 22.6N 63.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 23.6N 66.0W 120 KT 140 MPH

Wow, from Cat 2 (105 mph) to Cat 4 (130 mph) in 6 hours and from 75 mph to 130 mph in 24 hours, which is a 55 mph increase - and rapid intensification is defined as 35 mph or more increase in 24 hours, so this is just blowing up and it's on its way to Cat 5 strength in the next 12-18 hours (160-165 mph) and is forecast to stay over 150 mph for the next 4 days, before weakening a bit to 140 mph - note that when Lee heads north, it will be going over some cooler waters, due to upwelling from Franklin, so Lee should weaken a bit more as it heads north beyond 5 days. So fortunate that this storm is not directly impacting any land mass over the next 5 days.

So the track forecast is very easy for the next 5 days, as it stays on its WNW track along the southwestern periphery of the strong Western Atlantic Ridge. Then the big questions start. When does it start its northward turn that all the models show and will it slow down around that time - the answers to those two questions will have significant impacts on the downstream track.

As I mentioned earlier we have models ranging from a Nova Scotia landfall to a Newfoundland landfall (or even further NE) in about 9-10 days, which isn't that far from SE New England, and there are ensemble members of these parent models which do strike SE New England and even LI, although those are <10% of the ensemble members as some strike Canada and more than half even miss Canada to the east. Given how far we are from the storm reaching our latitude (8+ days) direct impacts or even a close call can't be ruled out yet from DelMarVa through the NE US (especially New England), but that would be a pretty large surprise still.

In case anyone is curious, the lowest pressure ever in the Atlantic Basin is Wilma @ 882mb (2005) and for sustained winds we had Allen @ 190 mph (1980)...and the deepest hurricane outside of the Gulf/Caribbean was Dorian (2019) at 910 mbar and some think Lee could reach that level.

And recon just recorded a 928 mbar pressure (not in the strongest part of the storm), which could mean the storm is already Cat 5.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59538-category-four-hurricane-lee—130mph953mb/page/16/

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 16.9N 51.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 17.6N 53.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 18.7N 55.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 19.7N 57.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 20.6N 59.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 22.0N 61.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 23.1N 64.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 24.0N 66.4W 120 KT 140 MPH

 

[RUScrew85]

Hurricanes also upwell cold water so there will be a trail (wake) of temporarily nutrient rich cold water trailing the storm…

See. Fish like to eat too.

 

[RU848789]

According to the recon flights, Lee is likely already a Cat 5, which I believe would be the fastest to Cat 5 ever in the Atlantic.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

According to the recon flights, Lee is likely already a Cat 5, which I believe would be the fastest to Cat 5 ever in the Atlantic.

View embedded media

Any chance this hits us? Looks one it be as catastrophic as Sandy if it did

 

[mikemarc1]

Any chance this hits us? Looks one it be as catastrophic as Sandy if it did

Way too early to pinpoint where it will hit. But I’d say it’s very likely NOT to hit us

 

[RU4Real]

This storm is the absolute perfect reason why insurance companies won't let you sail your boat from NJ to the Bahamas / Caribbean until October.

On the one hand, it's stupid and a lot of people are more than happy to raise the middle finger and sail essentially without coverage because the weather is wonderful 90% of the time. And then this happens...

 

[RU848789]

Cat 5 already - just amazing.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 52.4W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES

 

[RU848789]

The 11 pm details, below, but it's worth noting the NHC is now predicting Lee to reach 180 mph in 12 hours and to remain Cat 4/5 for the next 5 days. Fortunately for humanity, this storm will simply be moving over the open ocean for the next 5 days (and maybe 10).

One key thing to watch for is whether the storm starts its turn north (towards the weakness in the high pressure ridges to its west and NE) before or after it reaches 70W longitude - every current model is showing that turn at maybe 67-68W, but if it's delayed until after 70W, the chances of a close call or even a direct hit on the NE US (especially New England) go up.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/080252.shtml?

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

Additional strengthening appears likely, as Lee remains in a
low-shear environment and over very warm waters near 30 degrees
Celsius, and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement.
In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a
secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below
climatology. There is some chance that moderate deep-layer
southwesterly shear could develop over the hurricane, but this
could be offset by strong upper-level divergence and thus have
little to no impact. To account for the recent rate of
intensification, the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids and shows a peak intensity of 155 kt in
12 hours. Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak
intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air.
The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions
begin looking like a more distinct possibility. Only very gradual
weakening is shown after 12-24 hours, and it is likely that Lee's
intensity will fluctuate for much of the forecast period. Lee is
forecast to remain a dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane for the
next 5 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 17.3N 52.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 18.1N 54.0W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 19.1N 56.1W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.0W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 21.5N 60.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 22.1N 62.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 23.2N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 24.1N 66.6W 115 KT 130 MPH

 

[RU848789]

Any chance this hits us? Looks one it be as catastrophic as Sandy if it did

Very, very unlikely, but there's a small chance - also, there are no indications Lee would make a left hand turn into NJ, like Sandy did, which made the impacts much worse, with regard to surge and impacting areas well inland. Also, Lee won't be Cat 4/5 at our latitude (likely Cat 2).

 

[RU848789]

165 mph Cat 5 as of 5 am and forecast to make it up to 180 mph and remain a Cat 5 for the next 3-4 days, which is impressive and a testament to the record warm ocean temps the storm is traversing, as well as the favorable low shear environment around the storm. Those record warm SSTs are also likely why Lee is now the furthest SE Cat 5 ever observed, as per the tweet below.

Big question still remains where does Lee go and the major models and ensembles are still suggesting anything from Lee hitting between downeast Maine and Newfoundland or even missing Atlantic Canada to the east, with just a few ensemble members showing Lee hitting further SW than the Maine/Canada border. But 8+ days out uncertainty is still too high to rule out a close call for LI/SE New England and even our area.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 17.8N 53.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 18.6N 55.1W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 19.6N 57.1W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 20.5N 58.8W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 21.2N 60.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 21.9N 61.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 22.4N 62.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 23.3N 65.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 24.4N 67.1W 120 KT 140 MPH

 

[RUScrew85]

I'd love to know how reliable reports were on Cat 5 hurricanes while in the Atlantic Ocean 172 years ago.