OT: Hurricane Lee now a Cat 1 hurricane - likely landfall as near Cat 1 in Canada (or maybe far eastern Maine) on 9/16-17
- Thread starter RU848789
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But a Cat 5 gets more clicks, just like NJ.Com does.😉
Have you been drinking already? It says Cat 3. Just kidding - just updated, thanks...
Thought the tweet, below, was really interesting, as NOAA's new HAFS-B (Hurricane Analysis and Forecast) "next gen" model actually did quite well in predicting the intensity hit yesterday from shear/ingestion of dry air - my guess is it was an outlier so the NHC probably just forecast the consensus, which is not unreasonable. Also, as per the aricle below, in testing, it has done quite well for the past couple of years, with better track forecasts than current models and it also did quite well with Ian's rapid intensification last year (and Lee's this year).
https://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wir...ecast-model-as-atlantic-season-starts-strong/
https://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wir...ecast-model-as-atlantic-season-starts-strong/
FWIW, the HAFS-B track forecast out to 120 hours aligns with the model consensus.
Or maybe, after seeing how good the HAFS-B has been, the "model consensus" is now the HAFS-B, lol.
Town of Orleans Beach Cams Page | StreamPros
streampros.net
This beachcam usually goes out well before a storm hits.there are times when you can see some nice wave action though
Lee was actually all the way down to 115 mph at 11 pm last night, so that shear really shredded the storm significantly and Lee is still 115 mph as of 5 am. However, the shear is expected to ease up today and the NHC has Lee restrengthening back up to 140 mph in a couple of days, but then back down to about 120 mph at the end of the 5-day forecast period. As usual, intensity forecasts are signficantly less accurate than track forecasts, so let's just see what happens, since nobody was seeing the weakening yesterday - although to be fair, the rapid intensification we saw earlier this week was pretty well forecast.
More importantly, we're finally starting to see the forecast turn from WNW to NNW in about 4-5 days in response to being on the SW edge of the western Atlantic ridge that has been steering the storm for days, combined with the approaching US trough by mid-next week. Where from there is the $64,000 question, but we're still 8-9 days from potential landfall in Canada, as the GFS and CMC show (as a cat 2/3 storm in Nova Scotia), given the slowdown in speed of the storm over the next few days, while the Euro shows Lee missing Canada completely to the east.
And a small percentage of ensemble members (maybe ~5%) still show a US landfall (Maine mostly, but Mass on a couple), so given how far we are from that time, a US landfall still can't be ruled out, but a landfall in our area is an extremely low probability. The folks on AmericanWx usually post the ensemble spaghetti maps if interested and Tropical Tidbits has them for the GFS/CMC, as well as the operational plots.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59538-major-hurricane-lee/page/25/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 19.7N 57.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 20.4N 58.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 21.2N 60.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 21.8N 61.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 22.4N 62.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 22.8N 63.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 23.2N 64.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 23.9N 66.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 25.7N 67.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
So, Lee weakened a bit further since yesterday and is down to strong Cat 2 strength with 105 mph winds, but is still forecast to reintensify back up to 130 mph (Cat 4) over the next 2 days, as that shear relaxes, but then Lee is forecast to weaken a bit again, as it travels over colder than normal waters resulting from upwelling from Franklin. Lee has also slowed down and the models diverge on whether or not Lee speeds up, as forecast, by Days 4/5.
With regard to track, we're still 7-8 days from Lee possibly making landfall in Atlantic Canada - or missing east of there, although the possible slowdown may affect that timing. Last night's 0Z global models show quite a spread, with the Euro showing a central Nova Scotia landfall (as a likely strong Cat 2) Sunday evening, the GFS showing a western Nova Scotia landfall (as a likely strong Cat 2) on Saturday morning (but the 6Z GFS which just came out shows a far eastern Nova Scotia landfall on Sunday night), and the CMC showing a Nova Scotia landfall (as a likely strong Cat 2) on Saturday night. Right now it looks like Lee will travel at least 75 miles west of Bermuda.
There are still a few (~5%) ensemble members from these three parent models showing a SE New England landfall, so that still can't be ruled out, especially given that the Euro showed a Newport RI landfall yesterday afternoon. And a close call for our area is a very, very low probability, but can't be 100% ruled out yet, given we're still 7-8 days away and have a potentially slowing storm, so uncertainty is still pretty high. Certainty is very high on high surf, riptides and beach erosion for our area and the whole US east coast, especially from NC northward.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/091444.shtml?
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59538-major-hurricane-lee/page/28/
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 21.4N 60.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 22.0N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 22.8N 62.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 23.3N 64.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 23.6N 65.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 23.9N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 24.5N 66.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 26.5N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 30.2N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
paging #s
heard the chance of Lee hitting the NE increase a bit. is that true?
i need to drive up to Boston on Saturday for a dinner up there. heard the euro is showing a lot of rain for us from NYC to Boston.
heard the chance of Lee hitting the NE increase a bit. is that true?
i need to drive up to Boston on Saturday for a dinner up there. heard the euro is showing a lot of rain for us from NYC to Boston.
It looks like there a single ensemble member that shows a more westward (toward NE) path. It's an outlier, as the consensus still shows a track into the Maritimes.
Actually, about 10-20% of the GFS (GEFS), CMC (GEPS) and Euro (ECMWF) ensemble members are showing New England landfall, which is a bit more than has been the case before, as there is some risk that the negatively tilted trough could draw Lee NW-ward towards New England - very good discussion of this by jconsor (a met) on AmericanWx on the page linked below).
The ensembles are on Tropical Tidbits and in the linked AmericanWx post and the Track the Tropics links below, but here they are for folks to see, along with the NHC forecast track and the operational model tracks, most of which show landfall in Nova Scotia, but a few of which show a SE New England landfall or a Newfoundland landfall (with none out to sea anymore) with many being close enough for Cape Cod to likely see tropical storm conditions. Anything more than breezy conditions and some high clouds for NJ on Saturday as it passes our latitude would be a major, major surprise.
Lee is currently a Cat 3 storm with 120 mph winds and likely to strengthen to low end Cat 4 (130 mph) over the next day or two, but should then weaken on its trek northward towards Canada, with the storm likely to be Cat 1 by our latitude and then landfall, probably in Canada or eastern New England.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 23.1N 62.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 23.5N 63.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 24.0N 64.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 24.5N 65.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 25.1N 66.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 26.1N 67.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 27.6N 67.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 31.8N 67.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 37.5N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59538-major-hurricane-lee/page/31/
https://www.trackthetropics.com/lee-2023/
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084100.shtml?cone#contents
Yes, it's true that the chances of a New England (Maine mostly, but possibly Cape Cod) landfall have increased to maybe 10-20%, as per the post I just made, but that's not what any of the operational models are showing. They all show landfall in Atlantic Canada - some ensemble members show New England landfall, which is why the 5-day track cone will include eastern New England in a day or two, but the chances of rain in NYC or NJ are close to nil from Lee - maybe breezy with high clouds. Eastern LI, on the other hand could see some significant rain/wind based on the forecast track, which of course would mean heavy rain and possible TS force winds in Boston and Cape Cod on Saturday/Sat night.
That’s because most of the major news networks only mention New Hampshire every four years and don’t know Maine exists (which is usually the way we like it).
How large in area do you expect this storm to be at the time of landfall? I was wondering if I should expect bands of wind and heavy rain in Central ME this weekend even if landfall is New Brunswick or Nova Scotia.Actually, about 10-20% of the GFS (GEFS), CMC (GEPS) and Euro (ECMWF) ensemble members are showing New England landfall, which is a bit more than has been the case before, as there is some risk that the negatively tilted trough could draw Lee NW-ward towards New England - very good discussion of this by jconsor (a met) on AmericanWx on the page linked below).
The ensembles are on Tropical Tidbits and in the linked AmericanWx post and the Track the Tropics links below, but here they are for folks to see, along with the NHC forecast track and the operational model tracks, most of which show landfall in Nova Scotia, but a few of which show a SE New England landfall or a Newfoundland landfall (with none out to sea anymore) with many being close enough for Cape Cod to likely see tropical storm conditions. Anything more than breezy conditions and some high clouds for NJ on Saturday as it passes our latitude would be a major, major surprise.
Lee is currently a Cat 3 storm with 120 mph winds and likely to strengthen to low end Cat 4 (130 mph) over the next day or two, but should then weaken on its trek northward towards Canada, with the storm likely to be Cat 1 by our latitude and then landfall, probably in Canada or eastern New England.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 23.1N 62.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 23.5N 63.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 24.0N 64.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 24.5N 65.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 25.1N 66.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 26.1N 67.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 27.6N 67.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 31.8N 67.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 37.5N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59538-major-hurricane-lee/page/31/
https://www.trackthetropics.com/lee-2023/
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084100.shtml?cone#contents
Those spaghetti models look to be about 20 total.. and one of them slams into NJ.
While 5% might not be the correct percentage chance given its only one headed that way, it still seems significant.
EDIT: as RU#s correctly points out.. the graphic above in thread is like 20 selected models of 100 that support the same trend.. so.. maybe 1%.. but because that 1 is such an outlier, it is likely far less than 1% chance.
While 5% might not be the correct percentage chance given its only one headed that way, it still seems significant.
EDIT: as RU#s correctly points out.. the graphic above in thread is like 20 selected models of 100 that support the same trend.. so.. maybe 1%.. but because that 1 is such an outlier, it is likely far less than 1% chance.
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It's one out of about 100 total ensemble members from the 3 major global models - it's an outlier.
Lee will grow in size as it approaches Canada/New England, so I'd expect folks in central Maine to get some heavy rains (2-4"?). See the WPC graphics in the link below for that...
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
Yeah.. was just gonna post that.. I saw this youtube video and it showed that 100 model thing.. 1 for NJ, 2 for CT/MA but everything else the maritimes/maine
Thanks. Looks like I will have a good excuse to get little done and watch a lot of football this weekend.
As a former resident of Maine and New Hampshire (plus New Brunswick, CA), I totally agree!
Today's 12Z models are almost all out. The GFS and UK (now in range) show landfall as a probable Cat 2 hurricane right between far eastern Maine and far western Nova Scotia, i.e., in New Brunswick, Canada (likely starting to transition to an extratropical cyclone at that latitude, especially with some "merging" going on with the trough), while the CMC shows landfall in central Nova Scotia; the Euro isn't out yet.
Also the 5-day NHC cone is finally up to our latitude in NJ and the cone is 150 miles off the NJ coast, so the chance of it hitting anywhere west of Montauk is now just about nil, which is good news for us and the most important thing in the world - our RU tailgates and football game.
Also the 5-day NHC cone is finally up to our latitude in NJ and the cone is 150 miles off the NJ coast, so the chance of it hitting anywhere west of Montauk is now just about nil, which is good news for us and the most important thing in the world - our RU tailgates and football game.
Here is some banter for you #'s. Wanna bet it changes lol
Sweet Jesus, this storm doesn't even exist yet.
When I lived in Portsmouth, NH, a fraternity brother and his wife moved to Eliot. We had some good times there. Great area back then (mid-70’s).
That's not far eastern Maine.. that's Downeast Maine!
The origin of the phrase "Down East" is typically traced to nautical terminology referring to direction, rather than location. In the warm months most suitable for sailing, the prevailing winds along the coast of New England and Canada blow from the southwest, meaning ships sail downwind to go east. As such, the northeastern stretches were said to be "Down East" in relation to major western cities such as Boston.[4][5] Correspondingly, sailors spoke of going "up to Boston" from Down East ports, a phrase still common in Maine, despite the fact that Boston is around fifty miles to the south of Maine.[6] The term can be used as an adverb, adjective, or noun. The Oxford English Dictionary traces the earliest known use in print to 1825. The phrase "down-easter", meaning a person from "Down East", appeared in print in 1828.[7]
Here is some banter for you #'s. Wanna bet it changes lol
Well now. What have we here?
You can get Yuengling beer anywhere in the state.
That should be right up your alley.
Random GFS run that shows a Cat 5 impacting NJ in a dozen days.
FWIW, it's worthless - and the most recent 384 Hour GFS no longer show that solution.
LOL I know, saw it on one of the weather boards and thought some would get a laugh out of it. 300+ hours out
The best indication of the "accuracy" of the 384 hr GFS is the fact that each successive run shows a completely different solution at 300 hours.
As a guy with a boat on a mooring eastern Long Island, this is great info. Thanks guys.
Yeah, I know, but I had someone ask me what Downeast Maine is on one of my email updates on the storm, so figured eastern Maine was simply easier.
Well, we finally have a forecasted landfall at the SW tip of Nova Scotia Saturday evening and Lee is expected to be a mostly extratropical storm by that point with ~70 mph winds, as Lee is expected to weaken a fair amount between now (with 115 mph winds) and landfall, as the storm will pass over a stretch of colder than normal water, churned up in Franklin's wake.Today's 12Z models are almost all out. The GFS and UK (now in range) show landfall as a probable Cat 2 hurricane right between far eastern Maine and far western Nova Scotia, i.e., in New Brunswick, Canada (likely starting to transition to an extratropical cyclone at that latitude, especially with some "merging" going on with the trough), while the CMC shows landfall in central Nova Scotia; the Euro isn't out yet.
Also the 5-day NHC cone is finally up to our latitude in NJ and the cone is 150 miles off the NJ coast, so the chance of it hitting anywhere west of Montauk is now just about nil, which is good news for us and the most important thing in the world - our RU tailgates and football game.
The chances of a Cape Cod/NH/SW Maine landfall are now very low, with landfall now focused on Downeast Maine to central Nova Scotia, centered on SW Nova Scotia (with New Brunswick, Canada also possible). This also means the chances of anything more than breezy conditions for NJ during tailgates and the game are now nil. Heavy surf, riptides and beach erosion, however, will be issues for the entire coast from NC to Canada for the next several days.
Also, when storms go extratropical which they usually do that far north, they usually expand considerably with regard to windfield and precip shield, so anywhere within about 150-200 miles of Lee's track will at least likely get heavy rains (3-6" from Cape Cod up through most of Maine and all of Atlantic Canada) and probable tropical storm force winds (39 mph or more). The folks up there are going to get hammered, but at least we didn't get a Cat 5 hurricane hitting the Caribbean islands or Florida or the SE coast (or a Cat 3/4 hitting our area).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 23.9N 64.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 24.4N 65.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 25.0N 66.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 26.1N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 27.5N 67.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 29.4N 67.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 31.6N 67.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 37.6N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 43.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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