OT: Minor to Moderate Snow/Mix Likely Sat Evening (2/8) through Sun am

[RU848789]

Posting Pivotal maps in mixed snow/sleet events is misleading, as it makes it look like there's no frozen precip for areas getting significant sleet (i.e., most areas showing less than 3-4" of pure snow). For the GFS, the comparison of the TT and Pivotal maps are also showing more sleet (a bit like the NAM) where the sleet amount = (TT "snow" (which includes 10:1 sleet) - Pivotal pure snow)/3; when they show the same amount of "snow" that means no sleet. Would be nice to have a sleet map and a pure snow map.

Finally found this, which really shows well the amounts of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain for the 12Z NAM for selected locations. For Newark, it has 0.54" total precip, which includes 1.7" of snow (assumes 10:1 ratio), about 1.1" of sleet (from 0.37" of sleet as liquid and using a 3:1 ratio) and no freezing rain or plain rain.

For Philly, it has 0.69" total precip, which includes 1.4" of snow, about 0.3" of sleet (from 0.11" of sleet as liquid and using a 3:1 ratio), but it also shows 0.42" of freezing rain (and no plain rain), which would be just terrible. Rule of thumb is maybe 1/2 to 2/3 of freezing rain precip actually accretes on sub-32F surfaces (some runs off, especially if precip is moderate to heavy; drizzle accumulates much better), meaning maybe 0.25" of ice accretion, which is close to the 0.17" of accumulated freezing rain from the NWS forecast.

Biggest take home message is no plain rain, so this will be quite impactful even for areas south of 78 which might get a lot less pure snow, as sleet and freezing rain are as bad or worse. Even AC is only showing half of the 0.6" of total precip as plain rain. Of course, this is just the NAM model verbatim and the actual outcome might be much different as per the NWS with more snow and less sleet/freezing rain for most.

 

[bac2therac]

Most people aren't concerned with mass...they look and see what's out there..a couple of inches of snow including sleet

Most peeps just need to stay off the roads between 4pm and midnight and things should be fine upon wakey unless we really get hit with freezing rain

Not a long duration event

 

[RocktheRac]

Most people aren't concerned with mass...they look and see what's out there..a couple of inches of snow including sleet

Most peeps just need to stay off the roads between 4pm and midnight and things should be fine upon wakey unless we really get hit with freezing rain

Not a long duration event

Exactly. I have some turd customers that don't want the driveways plowed unless there is 3 or more inches so if we get 1 inch of snow and then sleet good luck trying to use Numbers mass explanation that there is really 5 inches.

 

[RU848789]

Most people aren't concerned with mass...they look and see what's out there..a couple of inches of snow including sleet

Most peeps just need to stay off the roads between 4pm and midnight and things should be fine upon wakey unless we really get hit with freezing rain

Not a long duration event

Nothing will melt overnight with temps at or below 32F for most until 9-10 am, so conditions in the morning will likely still be treacherous with 2" or so of snow/sleet then maybe 0.2" of ice on top of that...for CNJ N of 276/195 as per the recent NWS advisories, below, as it looks like the NWS is going with the sleetier/icier forecast (for areas south of 276/195 along 95 the forecast is for ~1" of snow/sleet plus 0.1-0.2" freezing rain while for coastal areas it's 2" of snow/sleet + 0.1" freezing rain). 2" of sleet/snow with 0.2" of ice would have the equivalent frozen mass (the freezing rain will be absorbed by the sleet/snow, not melt it) of ~6" of snow on all surfaces. This could be a shitstorm if places get 1/4" of ice accretion as per the NWS and some models which show even more. I think everyone would rather have all snow, but it's looking like a mix for anyone south of 78 and maybe south of 80.

Edit: added in the newly updated NWS-Philly snow/ice maps, showing the significant deceases in snowfall forecasts for everyone, but people should know that the decreased snow will be replaced by sleet, not rain, so the frozen mass on the ground will be about the same and the amount of freezing rain forecast hasn't changed much (and that will add to the frozen mass on the ground).

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter weather advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ054-061-062-105-106-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T2000Z-250209T1100Z/
Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-Lehigh-Northampton-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Doylestown, Trenton, Bethlehem,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Flemington, Jim Thorpe, Perkasie,
Chalfont, Allentown, Morrisville, and Easton
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two
tenths of an inch.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ013-020-022-027-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T1700Z-250209T0700Z/
Western Monmouth-Ocean-Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Freehold,
and Hammonton
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations around one
tenth of an inch.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ055-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T2000Z-250209T1100Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Monroe-
Including the cities of Morristown, Washington, Newton, and
Stroudsburg
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations up to
one tenth of an inch.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ060-070-071-101>104-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T1700Z-250209T1100Z/
New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Berks-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western
Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Honey Brook, Moorestown, West Chester,
Oxford, Pottstown, Norristown, Wilmington, Camden, Mount Holly,
Collegeville, Reading, Media, Glassboro, Lansdale, Pennsville,
Kennett Square, Cherry Hill, and Philadelphia
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one
tenth and two tenths of an inch.

 

[RU848789]

Exactly. I have some turd customers that don't want the driveways plowed unless there is 3 or more inches so if we get 1 inch of snow and then sleet good luck trying to use Numbers mass explanation that there is really 5 inches.

They're going to wish you had plowed 2-3" of heavy slop that is really like 5-6" of snow - use some science with them, as mass is far more important for removal than depth and for difficulty driving - look at all the accidents we had with ~1/2" of sleet/snow yesterday - this will make that look like child's play.

 

[bac2therac]

Nothing will melt overnight with temps at or below 32F for most until 9-10 am, so conditions in the morning will likely still be treacherous with 2" or so of snow/sleet then maybe 0.2" of ice on top of that...for CNJ N of 276/195 as per the recent NWS advisories, below, as it looks like the NWS is going with the sleetier/icier forecast (for areas south of 276/195 along 95 the forecast is for ~1" of snow/sleet plus 0.1-0.2" freezing rain while for coastal areas it's 2" of snow/sleet + 0.1" freezing rain). 2" of sleet/snow with 0.2" of ice would have the equivalent frozen mass (the freezing rain will be absorbed by the sleet/snow, not melt it) of ~6" of snow on all surfaces. This could be a shitstorm if places get 1/4" of ice accretion as per the NWS and some models which show even more. I think everyone would rather have all snow, but it's looking like a mix for anyone south of 78 and maybe south of 80.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter weather advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ054-061-062-105-106-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T2000Z-250209T1100Z/
Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-Lehigh-Northampton-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Doylestown, Trenton, Bethlehem,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Flemington, Jim Thorpe, Perkasie,
Chalfont, Allentown, Morrisville, and Easton
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two
tenths of an inch.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ013-020-022-027-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T1700Z-250209T0700Z/
Western Monmouth-Ocean-Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Freehold,
and Hammonton
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations around one
tenth of an inch.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ055-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T2000Z-250209T1100Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Monroe-
Including the cities of Morristown, Washington, Newton, and
Stroudsburg
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations up to
one tenth of an inch.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ060-070-071-101>104-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T1700Z-250209T1100Z/
New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Berks-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western
Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Honey Brook, Moorestown, West Chester,
Oxford, Pottstown, Norristown, Wilmington, Camden, Mount Holly,
Collegeville, Reading, Media, Glassboro, Lansdale, Pennsville,
Kennett Square, Cherry Hill, and Philadelphia
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one
tenth and two tenths of an inch.

the roads should be generally ok because they will have about 12 hours to work on them....people getting out the door at 9 for a 2 inch snow/sleet event should be okay unless you live in the sticks or as i said we get a ton of freezing rain....most models have precip winding down by 3 am except the ukie which is on an island with a later start time and later finish

also as I thought...keeping central jersey in the up to 2 inch total of snow/sleet...those 3-5 inch amounts you throw around as consensus earlier is why I call your snow bias out...same thing happened with the last storm...

 

[bac2therac]

They're going to wish you had plowed 2-3" of heavy slop that is really like 5-6" of snow - use some science with them, as mass is far more important for removal than depth and for difficulty driving - look at all the accidents we had with ~1/2" of sleet/snow yesterday - this will make that look like child's play.

the accidents happened because the storm was actually happening at the same time as morning rush..that wont be the issue with this one with the storm ending likely by 3 am as salters and plowers will have had time to work on the roads as long as we dont have a prolonged freezing rain event.

 

[bac2therac]

 

[RocktheRac]

They're going to wish you had plowed 2-3" of heavy slop that is really like 5-6" of snow - use some science with them, as mass is far more important for removal than depth and for difficulty driving - look at all the accidents we had with ~1/2" of sleet/snow yesterday - this will make that look like child's play.

They are mostly concerned about being able to get out of their driveways. I have the upmost confidence they will not get into an accident in their driveway. After that they are on their own.

 

[bac2therac]

They are mostly concerned about being able to get out of their driveways. I have the upmost confidence they will not get into an accident in their driveway. After that they are on their own.

its up to the customer...and they are always right...affluent area but they are actually the cheapest..its funny because the same peeps dont have an issue with splurging for a $150 dinner for 2 a few times of month but then think their lawn should be cut or the driveway plowed for $40

 

[RAHWAYBOB]

Planning on a trip from Rahway to AC Sunday afternoon. I see multiple forecasts. Will it be so bad that driving will be hazardous?

 

[DJ Spanky]

thats a basic 2-3 type event for central jersey...

What's this "central jersey" you speak of?

 

[bac2therac]

the plot thickens as both the 18z hrrr and nam have bumped snow totals...again 8 hour storm...quick thump of snow to ice

 

[RU848789]

Planning on a trip from Rahway to AC Sunday afternoon. I see multiple forecasts. Will it be so bad that driving will be hazardous?

Major highways would likely be fine by then, but side roads could still be slick, especially if they weren't plowed, although temps in the mid/upper 30s by afternoon will help.

 

[RAHWAYBOB]

Major highways would likely be fine by then, but side roads could still be slick, especially if they weren't plowed, although temps in the mid/upper 30s by afternoon will help.

Thanks!

 

[RU848789]

Wow, NAM-ed in some ways by the 18Z NAM, with double the QPF and a lot more snow than the past few runs for most, plus a lot of sleet and a bit of ZR but very little rain. Will take. Verbatim, for my house in the Edison area, that's 1" of QPF consisting of about 4" of pure snow (0.4" QPF) on the front end, followed by 2" of sleet (5" of equivalent 10:1 snow or 0.5" QPF, as sleet comparing the TT/Pivotal maps) and maybe 0.1" of ZR, so ~10" of 10:1 snow condensed down to maybe 5" of 5:1 slush (the ZR will just be absorbed into the pack). While I'd love 10" of snow, where do I sign up for this. Funny having to use 4 graphics for a forecast. HRRR also came in snowier/colder, so hard to say what's going to happen and if this NAM run is just a blip or an indication of a bigger front end thump and juicier system.

 

[RU848789]

NWS-NYC issued advisories for 3-5" of snow/sleet and a glaze of freezing rain for Union/Essex/Hudson and SE Passaic/SE Bergen in NJ and all of NYC/LI, plus southern Westchester and they issued warnings for 5-7" of snow with maybe a glaze of ice for NW Passaic, NW Bergen and all of the NY/CT counties north of the Tappan Zee. The updated regional NWS map is below and clearly, the NWS-NYC and NWS-Philly offices are not in sync. Look at the bondary between Sussex and Orange, where it goes from 3-4" to 6-8 by magically crossing into NY; similarly NE Morris is at 2-3" and is up against 4-6" amounts in adjacent Essex/Passaic. I would think maybe the NWS-Philly might bump amounts back up to align them better (or vice versa, but the NWS-NYC just issued their info).

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
314 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York
(Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast
Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern
Nassau-
314 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 3
and 5 inches. A light glaze of ice is also possible.



National Weather Service New York NY
314 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern
New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern
Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-Western Bergen-
Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
314 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
7 inches. A light glaze of ice is also possible.

 

[RUhasarrived]

Lee Goldberg has it flaking at 6PM,then ramping up from 8PM to 1 AM.

I guess that the Meadowlands is off for tomorrow night.

 

[MadRU]

Thanks for the Union County updates

 

[bac2therac]

yikes..the 18z gfs gives a middle finger to the nam

 

[bac2therac]

 

[RU#1fan]

Up in Northern Vermont for a Pond Hockey Tournament and overnight Saturday could get a lot of snow from this system…. 8 to 10 inches

 

[RU848789]

NWS-NYC issued advisories for 3-5" of snow/sleet and a glaze of freezing rain for Union/Essex/Hudson and SE Passaic/SE Bergen in NJ and all of NYC/LI, plus southern Westchester and they issued warnings for 5-7" of snow with maybe a glaze of ice for NW Passaic, NW Bergen and all of the NY/CT counties north of the Tappan Zee. The updated regional NWS map is below and clearly, the NWS-NYC and NWS-Philly offices are not in sync. Look at the bondary between Sussex and Orange, where it goes from 3-4" to 6-8 by magically crossing into NY; similarly NE Morris is at 2-3" and is up against 4-6" amounts in adjacent Essex/Passaic. I would think maybe the NWS-Philly might bump amounts back up to align them better (or vice versa, but the NWS-NYC just issued their info).

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
314 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York
(Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast
Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern
Nassau-
314 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 3
and 5 inches. A light glaze of ice is also possible.



National Weather Service New York NY
314 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern
New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern
Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-Western Bergen-
Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
314 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
7 inches. A light glaze of ice is also possible.

The NWS did a little bit of alignment to eliminate the worst discontinuity, as the NWS-NYC put a strip of 4-6" in SW Orange up against NE Sussex's 3-4" swath, but they left SE Morris at 2-3" adjacent to W Essex/Union at 4-6". Whatever. Still think NWS-Philly is at least a bit underdone, as it would be very unusual for NYC/Union/Hudson/Essex to have 4-6", while Sussex/Morris/Warren all have 2-3"/3-4" - this only makes sense if the NWS-Philly counties get a fair amount more sleet or a fair amount less precip, both of which seem possible but unlikely. An updated ice map is also below as is a link to the NWS-Philly briefing.

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

Anyway, let's see where tonight's models go and then we'll see the actual storm tomorrow where we'll see how much of a front end thump of snow materializes starting in SWNJ/SEPA and if it progresses NE into CNJ/NYC without much sleet or if we see an early change to sleet. Those things will determine how much snow/sleet most get and it'll be a fine line, as the heaviest precip will be from about 6 pm to midnight for most, which is not a long duration event, so losing an hour of snow or keeping it during the height of the storm will make a significant difference. And then the next question becomes how much actual freezing rain do we see and where? Getting 0.1-0.2" of ice could make for very difficult walking/driving conditions on untreated surfaces.

 

[WhiteBus]

Philadelphia is looking at .25in of sleet/ice. System is done by 1am, maybe earlier. Let's see what changes overnight!

 

[bac2therac]

Yikes 0z GFS and Oz NAM

Also start time keeps getting pushed back...very short 8 hour duration tops

 

[nutfromSEC117]

if it’s not at least 6in it’s not even worth talking about

 

[Doteman]

Wake up numbers, what’s the latest call for today

 

[RU848789]

The NWS did a little bit of alignment to eliminate the worst discontinuity, as the NWS-NYC put a strip of 4-6" in SW Orange up against NE Sussex's 3-4" swath, but they left SE Morris at 2-3" adjacent to W Essex/Union at 4-6". Whatever. Still think NWS-Philly is at least a bit underdone, as it would be very unusual for NYC/Union/Hudson/Essex to have 4-6", while Sussex/Morris/Warren all have 2-3"/3-4" - this only makes sense if the NWS-Philly counties get a fair amount more sleet or a fair amount less precip, both of which seem possible but unlikely. An updated ice map is also below as is a link to the NWS-Philly briefing.

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

Anyway, let's see where tonight's models go and then we'll see the actual storm tomorrow where we'll see how much of a front end thump of snow materializes starting in SWNJ/SEPA and if it progresses NE into CNJ/NYC without much sleet or if we see an early change to sleet. Those things will determine how much snow/sleet most get and it'll be a fine line, as the heaviest precip will be from about 6 pm to midnight for most, which is not a long duration event, so losing an hour of snow or keeping it during the height of the storm will make a significant difference. And then the next question becomes how much actual freezing rain do we see and where? Getting 0.1-0.2" of ice could make for very difficult walking/driving conditions on untreated surfaces.

Summary: Still a very difficult forecast timing the change from snow to sleet to freezing rain and maybe even plain rain for some (especially near the coast) near the end of the storm. Start time has been pushed back a bit to around 5-6 pm in the Phillly/SNJ area to maybe 7 pm for CNJ to about 8 pm for NNJ/NYC and the precip will come in like a wall with heavy precip immediately and coming down moderately to heavily for about 5-6 hours, ending by midnight to 1-2 am. No matter when the changeovers are, driving is likely to be very difficult during the storm with 1" per hour snow (or the equivalent amount of sleet) falling and then some freezing rain for many and the sleet/snow will all accumulate with temps generally at or below 32F for the storm.

When the changeovers to sleet and freezing rain (and maybe plain rain) occur will hugely impact the amount of snow/sleet on the ground, although the frozen mass on the ground will be similar, assuming about 0.1" or so of freezing rain and little rain (except near the coast), so the impact on driving and removal will be similar (except no visibility issues for sleet). There are models like the NAM and GFS that show little snow and mostly sleet for CNJ while there are models like the HRRR/UK that show mostly snow and a bit of sleet for CNJ with most of the models in-between those extremes with some snow and some sleet. I don't have enough expertise to know how this is going to play out, but can at least provide some potential scenarios based on the NWS forecast, below.

Details: The updated NWS maps for snow/ice are below, as well as a couple of other selected media maps, some with more snow/sleet forecast than the NWS (News12/TWC) and some with similar amounts (Channel 4/Channel 7 with the gratuitous shot of Dani Beckstrom for @Knight Shift and @bac2therac), but I'll only discuss the NWS below. The NWS forecast shows a bit of an increase in snowfall amounts for the NWS-Philly counties from Sussex down through EPA/CNJ vs. yesterday with areas N of 78 forecast to get 2-4" of snow/sleet and up to 0.1" of freezing rain and most of CNJ forecast to get 1-3" of snow/sleet and up to 0.1" of freezing rain as per the updated advisories, below. Less snow is forecast south of 276/195 (up to 2" snow/sleet possible, but most locations <1"), but up to 0.2" of freezing rain is forecast south of 276/195 near the 95 corridor vs. up to 0.1" of freezing rain south of 276/195 and towards the coast (but no freezing rain forecast at the immediate Monmouth coast, which is why they have no advisory), as per the updated advisories. Here are some guesstimated scenarios based on the NWS forecast.

• For much of CNJ between 276/195 and 78, we might expect the following, assuming 1" per hour snowfall rates (or 0.1" per hour precip rates on a liquid basis), mixing with sleet 1 hour into the storm would lead to maybe 1" of snow and 1-1.5" of sleet (3-4.5" of snow equivalent) and maybe 0.1" of freezing rain for a total of ~0.6" of precip and 2-2.5" of snow/sleet otg (meeting the 1-3" snow/sleet forecast).
  • The freezing rain would simply be absorbed into the snow/sleet making it more slushy, but freezing rain on bare untreated surfaces will produce a glaze, so I'd recommend actually waiting until the storm is over to shovel or to put salt down if shoveling after the snow/sleet are done.
  • Also, note that temps won't go above 32F for most until about sunrise so road conditions are likely to still be difficult well into the morning, but temps eventually will reach the upper 30s for most with some afternoon sunshine, allowing melting, although temps will quickly drop back below 32F around sunset and reach the low 20s by early Monday, freezing solid whatever slush remains.
• For areas south of 276/195 it might be something more like 1/2" of snow, then 1" of sleet then 0.2" of freezing rain and 0.1" of rain, leading to about 1-1.5" of snow/sleet otg and some melting/compaction due to the plain rain so it'll likely be <1" snow/sleet otg at the end.
• For areas line north of 80 that get, say, 3 hrs of snow for 3", then about 1" of sleet, that would put about 4" snow/sleet on the ground, perhaps topped off with up to 0.1" of freezing rain. And of course, anyone who gets 0.6" of precip as all snow, that would be 6" or so of snow on the ground at 10:1 ratio.
• Last, but not least, my guess for my house in Metuchen is 1.5" of snow, then 1" of sleet (~3" of snow equivalent in that sleet) for 2.5" snow/sleet on the ground, then 0.1" of freezing rain on top. We'll see...

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter weather advisory
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...s-of-i78-on-the-edge/page/18/#comment-7624862

---

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
320 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025

Sussex-Warren-Morris-Monroe-
Including the cities of Stroudsburg, Morristown, Newton, and
Washington
320 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations between 2 and 5 inches and ice accumulations up to
one tenth of an inch.

---

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
320 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025

Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-Lehigh-Northampton-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of New Brunswick, Trenton, Allentown,
Morrisville, Flemington, Doylestown, Bethlehem, Chalfont, Jim
Thorpe, Easton, Somerville, and Perkasie
320 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
320 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025

New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Berks-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western
Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Media, Camden, Cherry Hill,
Norristown, Glassboro, Pennsville, Honey Brook, Pottstown, West
Chester, Reading, Oxford, Philadelphia, Moorestown, Kennett
Square, Lansdale, Collegeville, and Mount Holly
320 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two
tenths of an inch.

---

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
320 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025

Western Monmouth-Ocean-Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Jackson, Freehold, Wharton State Forest,
and Hammonton
320 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations around one
tenth of an inch.

 

[RU848789]

Wake up numbers, what’s the latest call for today

So, yeah, i wrote all of that in 4 minutes since your post, lol. Takes me about 2 hours to research/write up one of those and then it gets posted here and on TOS and FB and emailed to friends/family not on FB. I don't know how I did this crap before I retired - it's why I was perpetually sleepy during winter storms. Now I can go take a nap...

 

[NickRU714]

Will it be worth it to shovel the snow mid- storm later tonight or just wait for the morning after everything donne??

 

[WhiteBus]

So the biggest change from last night is the timing of both beginning and ending near Philly. There is plenty of dry air for this storm to get through so start time has been moved back to 6pm for Philadelphia and just before 5pm for the peeps in Delaware and Cape May County. Ending around midnight for most from here to the South.
Forecast held for little to no snow around here to start but also no change for up to ,25 of sleet and freezing rain. A huge concern!
Be safe all!

 

[RU848789]

Will it be worth it to shovel the snow mid- storm later tonight or just wait for the morning after everything donne??

Shouldn't really matter - only concern might be shoveling right before any changeover to freezing rain, which might lead to a very slippery glaze on driveways/sidewalks instead of the freezing rain simply being absorbed into the snow/sleet.

 

[bac2therac]

So, yeah, i wrote all of that in 4 minutes since your post, lol. Takes me about 2 hours to research/write up one of those and then it gets posted here and on TOS and FB and emailed to friends/family not on FB. I don't know how I did this crap before I retired - it's why I was perpetually sleepy during winter storms. Now I can go take a nap...

Good analysis

Difficult forecast right now given the models like the nam/gfs really slicing totals vs the hrrr which could be overdone

It's a short duration system that keeps getting pushed back and not sure the later start time benefits keeping this as more snow

It's a question of whether we get that thump of heavier precip before the precip transitions to sleet...how much sleet before transition to freezing rain and there is some modeling that even changes to plain rain even in our locales. Does the .4 to .6 qpf end in the low range or high range.

Love the nws forecast but the news 12 an TWC maps seem way out to lunch. What model even has 6 inches for our area? Long Branch getting 4? Seems like those maps aren't even addressing the strong sleet signal. I agree north of 78 anything can go with higher amounts but sleet still could cut down on totals

The lack of disco on the americanwx board is baffling

 

[RU848789]

So the biggest change from last night is the timing of both beginning and ending near Philly. There is plenty of dry air for this storm to get through so start time has been moved back to 6pm for Philadelphia and just before 5pm for the peeps in Delaware and Cape May County. Ending around midnight for most from here to the South.
Forecast held for little to no snow around here to start but also no change for up to ,25 of sleet and freezing rain. A huge concern!
Be safe all!

FWIW, below is the NWS hourly forecast for Philly. It has about 1/2" of low ratio snow (maybe 6-7:1), followed by about 1" of sleet (as most of the "snow" in that graphic is sleet; that's 3" of snow equivalent and about 0.3" of liquid equivalent) and then about 0.1" of freezing rain with almost no plain rain (just the 0.02" at the end). What you'll have on the ground at the end if this verifies is about 1-1.5" of depth containging about 0.5" of liquid in frozen/slushy form. A mess and a definite concern, especially the freezing rain.

 

[RU848789]

Good analysis

Difficult forecast right now given the models like the nam/gfs really slicing totals vs the hrrr which could be overdone

It's a short duration system that keeps getting pushed back and not sure the later start time benefits keeping this as more snow

It's a question of whether we get that thump of heavier precip before the precip transitions to sleet...how much sleet before transition to freezing rain and there is some modeling that even changes to plain rain even in our locales. Does the .4 to .6 qpf end in the low range or high range.

Love the nws forecast but the news 12 an TWC maps seem way out to lunch. What model even has 6 inches for our area? Long Branch getting 4? Seems like those maps aren't even addressing the strong sleet signal. I agree north of 78 anything can go with higher amounts but sleet still could cut down on totals

The lack of disco on the americanwx board is baffling

Thanks. I agree the News12 and TWC forecast are high; maybe they're based on the HRRR which is almost all snow for CNJ and the RAP has been at times, too and many forecasters like those models close to an event. Given how well the NAM did the other day in a mixed event and how many other models show a decent amount of sleet for CNJ, I think the NWS/Channel 4/Channel 7 forecasts are more likely. And even the NWS forecast might be optimistic if the changeover to sleet is very fast, which is possible. While I'd much rather have all snow, aesthetically, it'll still be fun for me to watch and go out in.

 

[WhiteBus]

FWIW, below is the NWS hourly forecast for Philly. It has about 1/2" of low ratio snow (maybe 6-7:1), followed by about 1" of sleet (as most of the "snow" in that graphic is sleet; that's 3" of snow equivalent and about 0.3" of liquid equivalent) and then about 0.1" of freezing rain with almost no plain rain (just the 0.02" at the end). What you'll have on the ground at the end if this verifies is about 1-1.5" of depth containging about 0.5" of liquid in frozen/slushy form. A mess and a definite concern, especially the freezing rain.

It's hard to follow 3 major stations on Saturday so on the weekends I only watch CBS 3 and 6ABC. Both had Philly in the coating to 1 inch map area but not far from the 1-3 NW of here.
Inside of the 12 hour start time so I doubt any major changes but it's still unsettled. I think everyone's accuracy on the timing of the start will dictate who will have the best forecast now.
Anyway. It's cloudy with sun breaking through. (yes just temporary). Almost zero wind so it sounds like a bike ride in a few hours. Some miles, hills and over the Ben Franklin Bridge to visit the Battleship NJ, it been a while.

 

[RUhasarrived]

The Meadowlands just canceled live racing tonight.
However,Fan Duel will be open to take your money in case you want to make an investment on The Big Game.

 

[Postman_1]

For those interested in the timing of the event

 

[Joey Bags]

Thanks. I agree the News12 and TWC forecast are high; maybe they're based on the HRRR which is almost all snow for CNJ and the RAP has been at times, too and many forecasters like those models close to an event. Given how well the NAM did the other day in a mixed event and how many other models show a decent amount of sleet for CNJ, I think the NWS/Channel 4/Channel 7 forecasts are more likely. And even the NWS forecast might be optimistic if the changeover to sleet is very fast, which is possible. While I'd much rather have all snow, aesthetically, it'll still be fun for me to watch and go out in.

It blows my mind that the HRRR and RAP are still given credence, I thought those were both put out to pasture years ago from a viability standpoint. They’re such short term models that you’re almost better just using surface analysis and current observations to determine what happens next rather than risk a short term model whiff. I wonder if those are still used by pros.

 

[WhiteBus]

The Meadowlands just canceled live racing tonight.
However,Fan Duel will be open to take your money in case you want to make an investment on The Big Game.

This is a very tough Super Bowl to pick a winner. I'm in on 3 twenty dollar block pools for fun. However no real bets otherwise