Where are you located (not in your avatar/profile)? Sunday morning and even early afternoon should be ok, but later on will get dicey for most.
OT: Minor to Moderate Snow (or rain to snow) for Sunday, 1/19? Could also be a whiff or more significant (high uncertainty).
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Dan Zarrow 101.5 FM
Lol what kind of map is that 2-4 plus?
seems like Dan copped out and didnt make a call for no jersey
So we've moved his move back to Monday, no use messing with this storm.
You're likely in the sweet spot for snow with very little risk of mixing even if the outlier CMC is correct, so 3-6" seems like a reasonable guess for your area with the potential for more than 6" if some models are right (and ratios could get you there too).
0-10" lol and what's with the -2-4"? Is that supposed to be 2-4"- meaning 2-4" but could be less, kind of like 2-4"+ is 2-4" but could be more? Although to be fair if one looks at the NWS low and high maps (<10% chance of each) they show a range of 1-10" for most.
Sounds like just about everyone got a dusting/coating - we got a whole 0.3" last night, but things were a bit slick until the sun came up. Doesn't take much snow on a paved surface to make it slippery.
Numbers awol
the models are not in agreement
GFS is the one snow lovers want with about 6 inches
however euro is like 2-3...ukie 3-5
problem is the Canadian models rgem and ggem are much warmer and alot of rain mixing in that would be a disaster
the models are not in agreement
GFS is the one snow lovers want with about 6 inches
however euro is like 2-3...ukie 3-5
problem is the Canadian models rgem and ggem are much warmer and alot of rain mixing in that would be a disaster
the more things change the more they stay the same, models are a complete mess.
Hard one to forecast....go with the 2-5 for now and then see what happens tonight and tomorrow
Hard one to forecast....go with the 2-5 for now and then see what happens tonight and tomorrow
Disaster meaning ice?Numbers awol
the models are not in agreement
GFS is the one snow lovers want with about 6 inches
however euro is like 2-3...ukie 3-5
problem is the Canadian models rgem and ggem are much warmer and alot of rain mixing in that would be a disaster
Early snow predictions from 9 forecasters for Sunday’s winter storm
Early snow predictions from 9 forecasters for Sunday’s winter storm
Snow forecasts from AccuWeather, the National Weather Service and other meteorologists ahead of the weekend storm.
Up to 6 inches of snow in forecast for weekend winter storm
Up to 6 inches of snow in N.J. forecast for weekend winter storm
Dangerously cold temperatures will grip New Jersey next week after a winter storm on Sunday brings widespread snow to the state.
I guess you missed the 🤣🤣 in my post. Obviously you have no humor in your personality! 1 star max!
10-1 map...ratios could boost these totals a bit...euro continues to be further south and east..completely opposite of the canadian
First snowfall maps have been issued from NWS Philly and NYC and they're pretty close to what was discussed above and a bit higher than what Lee Goldberg had forecast last night with a general 3-5" forecast for everywhere in the Philly-NJ-NYC area (with their 4" line very close to 95 from Philly to NYC) except for near the NJ coast, where 1-3" are forecast (due to the likelihood of some rain holding down accumulations) SE of the 3" line which runs from about Manasquan to Alloway in Salem County. This would certainly be the biggest snowfall this season for everyone except for most of SENJ/DE, which got more on 1/6.,
The NWS-Philly discussion, below, details how this is a preliminary forecast and that significant changes are still possible, as we're still 54 hours from the start of the event and there is still model variability as discussed above, which is part of why they have held off on any watches/advisories as they'd like to see more consensus before issuing them (plus the current forecast has most locations just below warning criteria). Lots more models to come. It's also worth noting that the 6Z global models (Euro/GFS/ICON/UK) are fairly similar to what they were last night at 0Z, although the GFS and UK did bump amounts up a bit. although they both show more mixing towards the coast, so the risk of a more CMC-like solution (with heavier snows NW of 95 and mostly rain SE of 95) is still there.
One thing worth noting is that for anywhere that gets a mix of snow and rain, producing a slushy mess, temps will be tumbling through the 20s by Sunday night, so shoveling before then is an absolute must for those folks, as anything not shoveled by then will likely become a permanent frozen mass that will stick around all week given the brutal cold that is coming. Specifically, we'll have highs in the teens Tues/Weds (and 20s Mon, Thurs and Fri) and lows in the single digits to maybe below 0F for NW areas on Tues/Weds/Thurs mornings with even colder wind chills.
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
630 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2025
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
From here, forecast guidance still varies significantly,
considering it`s only 48-60 hours away. The track and strength
of the surface low will ultimately determine what type of
precipitation our area experiences Sunday into Sunday evening.
If the track of the low is close enough to the coast, a large
portion of the region is likely to observe accumulating snowfall
(similar to what the 00Z GFS and ECMWF depict). If the track of
the low, hugs the immediate coastline, or ends up inland over
the coastal plain, then the most significant snows will be
focused north and west of I-95 (depicted by the 00Z Canadian).
Such a solution would also mean rain for the immediate coast,
and perhaps as far inland as the I-95 corridor. The previous
suppressed solution appears to have fallen out of favor of the
deterministic and probabilistic guidance as of the 00Z suite. So
precipitation appears increasingly likely across much of our
area, but the exact detail still remain unclear based on the
track. Ultimately, the outcome probably lies somewhere between
the first two aforementioned solutions. PoPs have been increased
to 60-70% area wide. We have introduced more mention of rain
for the coast and coastal plain inland to I-95 with this
morning`s forecast update, and increased snowfall amounts a bit
farther inland from there.
So with all of this being said, the greatest potential for
significant accumulations remains for areas along the I-95
corridor and points north and west. Within this zone, forecast
amounts were increased about 1" across the board, and now stand
between 3-5", with locally higher amounts possible as usual.
Lesser amounts upwards of 1-2" remain in the forecast for the
coastal plain, and amounts for the immediate coast were lowered
slightly in light of the increasing potential for some rain to
mix in during the event. The far southern coastal areas such as
Cape May and southern Delaware likely end up with less than 1",
though potential exists for higher accumulations there.
Since warning level snowfall does not currently appear likely to
occur (though this certainly remains possible for some inland
areas), we have not issued any watches at this point. Our
current forecast support mainly a widespread advisory type of
event, but given the relatively low confidence and quickly
changing forecast, we`ll hold of on any advisories for now as
well. Obviously, a lot can change over the next 48 hours as
more hi- res/short range forecast guidance comes into the
picture. Note that the forecast is likely to change, so stay
tuned for the latest details to the forecast over the next
couple days!
Brief update on the 12Z global models. No major change from last night's 0Z models so I wouldn't expect much changing of forecasts from the NWS or other forecasters. It's still kind of the GFS/Euro/UK/ICON models vs. the CMC outlier. The GFS/Euro/UK/ICON models all show variations on the same theme, i.e., 2-4/3-6" snowfalls for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC area with some showing less near the coast (like 1-3") due to rain/mixing/less precip, while the CMC shows little to no snow SE of 95 with a sharp increase in snowfall NW of 95 with 6"+ 15-20 miles NW of 95, due to a more NW track bringing rain up through the 95 corridor.
- The ICON showed a general 2-4" for everyone with the low side towards the coast.
- The GFS is still the snowiest model showing 4-6" for most (and 7" in spots NW of 95), but only 2-4"towards the coast (with <1" south of Toms River)
- The CMC track ticked a bit NW by about 10 miles showing 6"+ starting on a SW to NE line about 15-20 miles NW of the TPK with 1/2-2" along 95 and nada a few miles SE of the TPK to the coast. Very steep gradient.
- However, the CMC ensemble mean is much further SE than the Op again with 3-5" NW of 95, but 2-3" along 95 and 1-2" towards the coast, implying the Op is a bit of NW outlier relative to its own ensemble mean, which happens.
- The UK still shows a general 3-5" event for most, except 2-3" close to the coast, due to less precip falling (not rain)
- And finally, the Euro is a little bit less snowy than 0Z, showing a 2-3" event for all including the coast and up to 4" in spots.
- Note that all but the CMC (the only one showing a lot of rain/mix) are still generally <32F for the duration with falling temps into the 20s during the snowfall, which could lead to elevated snow/liquid ratios (maybe 12-15:1 - same mass, more depth) if those temp verify - and if the snow crystal growth aloft is good, although it's too early to make that assumption, so all of the snowfalls I quoted above are at 10:1 ratios.
- The Euro AIFS (their new AI model, which has been pretty accurate) still shows a 4-6" snowfall for everyone.
- The NAM shows little snow, but it's still past the end of its useful range (usually best inside 48 hrs and the snow starts around 54 hrs from the 12Z runs (7 am EST), so the pros are discarding it. The RGEM, looks almost identical to the CMC (both Canadian models share code). These models will be taken more seriously starting tonight, I would think.
I'll take the NAM, thank you. With the Siberian cold front coming through the less snow on the grown, the better!NAM playing catchup a bit out of range and doesnt seem to have a good grasp of this situation
Demi, lol. They're predicting 3-5" for much of our area, except 1-3" from a bit SE of 95 to the coast.
The NAM is crap at this range and is so far out of step with every other model, so don't count on that.
I'm not. But frozen snow isn't going anywhere when the temps bottom out. Most salt products are ineffective under 15 degrees.
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