OT: Minor to Moderate Snowfall Sunday (2/13) Morning; and a warm pattern for the 2nd half of Feb

[tico brown]

First they claim bust no matter what the outcome was and then they start making political posts to get people arguing, which shuts the thread down usually, just like the first one on this event. The mods and Richie won't do anything on my behalf, but they might if premium members, like you, said something (or they might not).

It’s a shame because your threads are useful. Not many people KNEW about this snow front was going through here until you brought it up the other day. But you’re the troll🤦🏻‍♂️

I’m trying and keep commenting on those unnecessary shenanigans. I’m seen this on the Mets threads and now I’ve seen some of the CE shenanigans creep inside the Rutgers Sports Pay Section, which I’m not paying to see. Hell, I think I would be the one banned if I say that I’ll stop paying if I keep seeing that crap on unrelated threads. Don’t think they’ll miss my $9/month though.

 

[bac2therac]

You shoveled the walks already with I don't know how much less than the 3 inches on the grass.

He shovels the grass

 

[bac2therac]

First they claim bust no matter what the outcome was and then they start making political posts to get people arguing, which shuts the thread down usually, just like the first one on this event. The mods and Richie won't do anything on my behalf, but they might if premium members, like you, said something (or they might not).

Maybe because you call them Q

 

[Knight Shift]

First they claim bust no matter what the outcome was and then they start making political posts to get people arguing, which shuts the thread down usually, just like the first one on this event. The mods and Richie won't do anything on my behalf, but they might if premium members, like you, said something (or they might not).

I think we have a legitimate bust from the forecast of 2-3", but I invoked the jinx and it is snowing at a good clip again here in Wall. However, not sticking much, even on the grass. Our experience is consistent with this revised map from 4:07 a.m., which I was not aware of until you pointed it out.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Maybe 2" in Upper Somerset County based on my deck, nada sticking to the roads. According to the map it appears the lower Somerset County districts in blue are getting hit harder.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Got a dusting here, up top above Boone NC.

 

[runrutgersrun]

This is the perfect snow storm. Pretty on the ground and on trees but streets driveways and sidewalk all clear. Get the pretty winter feel without breaking my back.

northeast Monmouth county - looks like 2-3 inches on lawn. Looks like forecast was spot-on, opposite of a bust

Agreed...would have been a perfect Christmas Day snowstorm...looks beautiful here in Spotswood!

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Where are you? Sounds very strange, as much of the snow should've fallen before the sun was up very high and I wouldn't have thought a patio and a driveway would be any different (my back deck and driveway and sidewalk all had similar amounts). Is there any heat source near/under your patio?

West amwell. Back patio gets the sun all day, driveway is blocked by the house is my guess.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Not many people KNEW about this snow front was going through here until you brought it up the other day.

Ya know, I'm envisioning a real new market here, where networks could start including weather forecasts in their news broadcasts. This is cutting edge stuff, I bet someone could make a killing doing this.

 

[Caliknight]

Maybe because you call them Q

If you played a game where you drink every time Numbers posts and mentions “I” and “Me” you’d be sloshed by the second post.

I’ve never see anyone on a message board be more into themselves. He even posts about what his day was like as if it’s super interesting. Dude sure loves himself I’ll give him that.

 

[RU848789]

I think we have a legitimate bust from the forecast of 2-3", but I invoked the jinx and it is snowing at a good clip again here in Wall. However, not sticking much, even on the grass. Our experience is consistent with this revised map from 4:07 a.m., which I was not aware of until you pointed it out.

Actually, for me, the forecast in force at the start of the event, which was around 1 am, is the forecast that should be judged, so that would be the 4 pm forecast from yesterday, which had your area in the 2-3" swath, so if you've had <2" that's a minor bust and if you've had <1", IMO, that's a significant bust. I have zero issue with the NWS reissuing a revised forecast after the event starts, when they have new info, so people know better what to expect, but I don't quite consider that the forecast of record.

Thought the NWS did pretty well for the 95 corridor, predicting 2-3" for most, but they were well under for areas like NWNJ/NEPA, where they predicted 1-2" and 3-6" fell for most, which is a significant bust. On the flip side, thought the NWS and the mid-range models, overall, did ok from 3 days out or so, identifying that we'd likely receive a fairly minor snowfall for most (<2"), with the potential for 3" in some locations.

 

[RULoyal]

It’s a shame because your threads are useful. Not many people KNEW about this snow front was going through here until you brought it up the other day. But you’re the troll🤦🏻‍♂️

I’m trying and keep commenting on those unnecessary shenanigans. I’m seen this on the Mets threads and now I’ve seen some of the CE shenanigans creep inside the Rutgers Sports Pay Section, which I’m not paying to see. Hell, I think I would be the one banned if I say that I’ll stop paying if I keep seeing that crap on unrelated threads. Don’t think they’ll miss my $9/month though.

Not many people knew? I guess you mean all those people that never watch TV, the news, read a paper, surf the web, interact with other humans or don’t have a weather app on their phone.

 

[RU848789]

As of 11:00 am, we're up to 3.25" with 1/4" the last hour; my driveway/sidewalk still has about 1/2" of snow in most spots from the earlier band, although that will melt with current rates and the indirect sun. Still decent snowfall rate (looks like 1/4" per hour rates) and still 32F.

Well it's been snowing fairly lightly and continuously since 11 am, but it seems like the snowfall rate has been roughly equal to the melting rate (I'm guessing we've had about 0.1-0.2" snow per hour and that's the likely melting rate due to the indirect mid-Feb sunlight), so I'm going to stick with the 3.25" I measured at 11 am. It also hasn't wavered from 32F since 9 am.

With the sun much lower in the sky now, it's likely that any additional snow will accumulate, but the storm's precip looks to be close to over, except for the coast and LI. If this is the last of it, that brings our seasonal total up to 18.5", which is very close to normal for this point in the season (seasonal normal is about 27-28"), but with the warm pattern ahead, we'll likely fall behind normal by the end of February.

 

[Kbee3]

First they claim bust no matter what the outcome was and then they start making political posts to get people arguing, which shuts the thread down usually, just like the first one on this event. The mods and Richie won't do anything on my behalf, but they might if premium members, like you, said something (or they might not).

No...they won't.

 

[WhiteBus]

Interesting, bc SE Monmouth has probably 1/4" on the ground, if that. The call was for 2.5-2.7" in our area. It started snowing again, but not accumulating and now tapering off.
We lucked out with the temperatures favoring rain a melting just a bit south of you.

Haha. If they really predicted 2.5 for Philadelphia they missed by 2.5 inches. Was snowing all day by 1pm even cars didn't have anything. It's been above freezing for a long time.

 

[T2Kplus20]

The mods and Richie won't do anything on my behalf, but they might if premium members, like you, said something (or they might not).

#crybaby

 

[T2Kplus20]

Haha. If they really predicted 2.5 for Philadelphia they missed by 2.5 inches. Was snowing all day by 1pm even cars didn't have anything. It's been above freezing for a long time.

This "event" has been busting everywhere!

 

[RUJMM78]

A long storm for only a couple inches of snow in East Brunswick.

 

[goru1869]

A long storm for only a couple inches of snow in East Brunswick.

Flurries does not = storm!

 

[WhiteBus]

This "event" has been busting everywhere!

I'd love to see the real measurements. 0.0 here but there will 8 inches at the airport over 10 miles from me in the "official" report but TV showed jack at PHL

 

[knightfan7]

Never stuck here except on cars and decks. Streets and sidewalks are clear.

Gonna guess there's going to be a bit of ice in the AM.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Flurries does not = storm!

You're wrong!!!

It's not just a storm, it's ...

 

[knightfan7]

You're wrong!!!

It's not just a storm, it's ...

Came pretty close down here 2 weeks ago.

 

[Caliknight]

Tough SB watch. My pool was only heated to 78. 79 would have been better. Plus I got sunburned.

 

[RU848789]

Well it's been snowing fairly lightly and continuously since 11 am, but it seems like the snowfall rate has been roughly equal to the melting rate (I'm guessing we've had about 0.1-0.2" snow per hour and that's the likely melting rate due to the indirect mid-Feb sunlight), so I'm going to stick with the 3.25" I measured at 11 am. It also hasn't wavered from 32F since 9 am.

With the sun much lower in the sky now, it's likely that any additional snow will accumulate, but the storm's precip looks to be close to over, except for the coast and LI. If this is the last of it, that brings our seasonal total up to 18.5", which is very close to normal for this point in the season (seasonal normal is about 27-28"), but with the warm pattern ahead, we'll likely fall behind normal by the end of February.

Well, it just kept snowing on and off, lightly, through much of the evening and we got another 1/4" of snow, for a total of 3.5". And to short-circuit the doubters, 3.0-3.6" amounts were recorded very near to me (Parlin, Hopelawn, Carteret, South Plainfield, etc. (and most of these were from around 4-5 pm, before the last 1/4" fell).

Nice storm, pretty well forecast with 1-3" amounts for most of SEPA/SNJ (S of 276/195) and 2-4" amounts for most of PA/NJ N of that line up to 78 (except only 1-2" at the coast) and 3-6" amounts for NWNJ and the Lehigh Valley. NYC/NENJ got 2-3" for the most part and LI got 3-5". 3.5" brings our seasonal total up to 18.75". NWS map of reports is below, but not a final map yet, as there are many incomplete reports in there and in the PNS lists.

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=8&lat=39.58&lon=-74.98&hr=24

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[RU848789]

I'd love to see the real measurements. 0.0 here but there will 8 inches at the airport over 10 miles from me in the "official" report but TV showed jack at PHL

Here are the reported measurements for Philadelphia. Only 0.4" at the airport, but 1-3" in other parts of the city, which generally compares favorably with the 2-3" forecast from 4 pm yesterday.

...Philadelphia County...
Chestnut Hill 3.2 in 0345 PM 02/13 Public
Manayunk 2.8 in 0430 PM 02/13 Public
Shawmont 2.0 in 1140 AM 02/13 Public
Fox Chase 1.3 in 0800 AM 02/13 Trained Spotter
Philadelphia Internati 0.4 in 0725 PM 02/13 ASOS

 

[DJ Spanky]

Did Murphy declare a State Of Emergency?

 

[RU848789]

Did Murphy declare a State Of Emergency?

Nope.

 

[fsg2]

Now that's a great contribution. Never heard of Blippi before, but anyone who was once a kid who liked playing in the snow or who was a fun parent who played in the snow with their kids should appreciate that video even if the guy is annoying (looks kind of like T2K). I still miss going sledding with our son - we actually went in last year's big storm for old time's sake.

That idiot makes bank from kiddie videos. Way more wealthy than any weather trolls on here😆

 

[WhiteBus]

Here are the reported measurements for Philadelphia. Only 0.4" at the airport, but 1-3" in other parts of the city, which generally compares favorably with the 2-3" forecast from 4 pm yesterday.

...Philadelphia County...
Chestnut Hill 3.2 in 0345 PM 02/13 Public
Manayunk 2.8 in 0430 PM 02/13 Public
Shawmont 2.0 in 1140 AM 02/13 Public
Fox Chase 1.3 in 0800 AM 02/13 Trained Spotter
Philadelphia Internati 0.4 in 0725 PM 02/13 ASOS

All but Manayunk is over 10 miles away. Having no reported measurements in Center City, South Philly should tell you it was all just wet. Even Independence Hall with is massive grass areas had nothing as I passed it at 3pm yesterday. It did snow a lot longer then predicted but it was also 37 degrees.
Anyway Manayunk is known world wide in cycling circles for the Manayunk Wall. A climb reminiscent of the Muur van Geraardensbergen in Flanders Belgium. Iconic climb. Just struggled up the Wall this Saturday. Have conquered the Muur last September and returning again in April.
Thankfully the weather looks like it has turned so I can get a lot of miles in before then.

Iconic Places: Manayunk Wall

Perhaps no climb in the U.S. has as much history as the Manayunk Wall in Northwest Philadelphia

www.velonews.com

 

[retired711]

All but Manayunk is over 10 miles away. Having no reported measurements in Center City, South Philly should tell you it was all just wet. Even Independence Hall with is massive grass areas had nothing as I passed it at 3pm yesterday. It did snow a lot longer then predicted but it was also 37 degrees.
Anyway Manayunk is known world wide in cycling circles for the Manayunk Wall. A climb reminiscent of the Muur van Geraardensbergen in Flanders Belgium. Iconic climb. Just struggled up the Wall this Saturday. Have conquered the Muur last September and returning again in April.
Thankfully the weather looks like it has turned so I can get a lot of miles in before then.

Iconic Places: Manayunk Wall

Perhaps no climb in the U.S. has as much history as the Manayunk Wall in Northwest Philadelphia

www.velonews.com

Good luck with the cycling!! Others may not be aware that Manayunk is substantially higher in altitude than the rest of Philadelphia; therefore snow results from there are not representative.

 

[WhiteBus]

Good luck with the cycling!! Others may not be aware that Manayunk is substantially higher in altitude than the rest of Philadelphia; therefore snow results from there are not representative.

Thanks!
Yes. Its really it's own little town. Has its own Main Street. Different vibe than Center City 8 miles away. Very, very steep going up from Main Street. It's in a valley along the river from Bala Cynwyd. It's a very cool place to go on weekends.

 

[RU848789]

All but Manayunk is over 10 miles away. Having no reported measurements in Center City, South Philly should tell you it was all just wet. Even Independence Hall with is massive grass areas had nothing as I passed it at 3pm yesterday. It did snow a lot longer then predicted but it was also 37 degrees.
Anyway Manayunk is known world wide in cycling circles for the Manayunk Wall. A climb reminiscent of the Muur van Geraardensbergen in Flanders Belgium. Iconic climb. Just struggled up the Wall this Saturday. Have conquered the Muur last September and returning again in April.
Thankfully the weather looks like it has turned so I can get a lot of miles in before then.

Iconic Places: Manayunk Wall

Perhaps no climb in the U.S. has as much history as the Manayunk Wall in Northwest Philadelphia

www.velonews.com

From what I've seen on social media, Center City was very similar to the Airport, i.e., maybe 1/2" on colder surfaces, especially in the morning, but with white rain most of the rest of the day, that barely accumulated. When it comes to borderline events, like this one, the combination of the urban heat island (which is most impactful for Center City) and 100-200 feet of additional elevation difference (the airport, South Philly, and Center City are all at <50 feet, while the places in Philly that got 2-3" are all at 100-300 feet in elevation) can have a significant impact on accumulations, since they can combine for it to be 1-2F warmer, which can make all the difference in snow accumulations when it's 33-34F in CC and 32F in Chestnut Hill.

Something similar happens in NYC for some storms, when most of Manhattan and much of southern Queens and Brooklyn (which are very urban and closer to the coast and at low elevation) get very little, but the Bronx (and even northern Manhattan), at a higher elevation and inland further (even though similarly urban) get more. For this event, many of the pros think that they just got the measurement wrong at Central Park, as it was cold enough everywhere (below 32F for all) to get 2.5-3.0": JFK, LGA and the Bronx all got that, while Central Park only reported 1.6" (and a couple of social meda posters said they got close to 3" in midtown on grassy surfaces. CPK has a long history of mismanaging snowfall measurements.

Lots of great cycling weather coming up; same for disc golf. Enjoy.

 

[retired711]

From what I've seen on social media, Center City was very similar to the Airport, i.e., maybe 1/2" on colder surfaces, especially in the morning, but with white rain most of the rest of the day, that barely accumulated. When it comes to borderline events, like this one, the combination of the urban heat island (which is most impactful for Center City) and 100-200 feet of additional elevation difference (the airport, South Philly, and Center City are all at <50 feet, while the places in Philly that got 2-3" are all at 100-300 feet in elevation) can have a significant impact on accumulations, since they can combine for it to be 1-2F warmer, which can make all the difference in snow accumulations when it's 33-34F in CC and 32F in Chestnut Hill.

Something similar happens in NYC for some storms, when most of Manhattan and much of southern Queens and Brooklyn (which are very urban and closer to the coast and at low elevation) get very little, but the Bronx (and even northern Manhattan), at a higher elevation and inland further (even though similarly urban) get more. For this event, many of the pros think that they just got the measurement wrong at Central Park, as it was cold enough everywhere (below 32F for all) to get 2.5-3.0": JFK, LGA and the Bronx all got that, while Central Park only reported 1.6" (and a couple of social meda posters said they got close to 3" in midtown on grassy surfaces. CPK has a long history of mismanaging snowfall measurements.

Lots of great cycling weather coming up; same for disc golf. Enjoy.

It's not good that the Central Park measurements tend to be wrong because I would think that's a good place to take measurements. It seems to me the Philly reading should not be from the airport -- which as you know is miles away -- but rather from Fairmount Park behind and not far away from the Art Museum (that is, before the uphill slope in the park.)

I am hoping for spring weather soon.

 

[RU848789]

It's not good that the Central Park measurements tend to be wrong because I would think that's a good place to take measurements. It seems to me the Philly reading should not be from the airport -- which as you know is miles away -- but rather from Fairmount Park behind and not far away from the Art Museum (that is, before the uphill slope in the park.)

I am hoping for spring weather soon.

Many people, including yours truly, have suggested Fairmount Park being a much better location for a weather station and snowfall measurements over the years - the airport is the absolute worst: it's 100 yards into Delaware County, actually and even if it weren't it's at the far SE edge of Philly, so it's not that representative of the city, and it's part of the concrete jungle, so more likely to show an UHI effect than in the middle of a park that's somewhat centrally located.

CPK should be the perfect place to measure, but the issue there isn't the location, it's the competence of the people contracted to do the measurements. For decades the measurements were done by the Central Park Zoo staff, but this was switched over to the Conservancy staff in 2015. There are literally dozens of weather board conversations over the years on the consistent under-measurements there, even since the switch. And the worst example ever was likely the great blizzard of 1888, when 21" was measured in CPK, despite there being 50-foot drifts and a completely paralyzed city - and other reports of 30-36" from other parts of the City.

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/03/24/nws-adjusts-curiously-low-snowfall-totals-at-central-park/

https://www.boweryboyshistory.com/2013/02/frozen-in-time-blizzard-of-1888-knocks.html

 

[retired711]

Many people, including yours truly, have suggested Fairmount Park being a much better location for a weather station and snowfall measurements over the years - the airport is the absolute worst: it's 100 yards into Delaware County, actually and even if it weren't it's at the far SE edge of Philly, so it's not that representative of the city, and it's part of the concrete jungle, so more likely to show an UHI effect than in the middle of a park that's somewhat centrally located.

CPK should be the perfect place to measure, but the issue there isn't the location, it's the competence of the people contracted to do the measurements. For decades the measurements were done by the Central Park Zoo staff, but this was switched over to the Conservancy staff in 2015. There are literally dozens of weather board conversations over the years on the consistent under-measurements there, even since the switch. And the worst example ever was likely the great blizzard of 1888, when 21" was measured in CPK, despite there being 50-foot drifts and a completely paralyzed city - and other reports of 30-36" from other parts of the City.

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/03/24/nws-adjusts-curiously-low-snowfall-totals-at-central-park/

https://www.boweryboyshistory.com/2013/02/frozen-in-time-blizzard-of-1888-knocks.html

I thought it might be a competence issue,but didn't want to say so without evidence.

I'm glad that many who are more knowledgeable than I also think the Philly station should be in Fairmount park. I wonder, though, if there might be the same competence problem as with Central Park.

 

[WhiteBus]

Many people, including yours truly, have suggested Fairmount Park being a much better location for a weather station and snowfall measurements over the years - the airport is the absolute worst: it's 100 yards into Delaware County, actually and even if it weren't it's at the far SE edge of Philly, so it's not that representative of the city, and it's part of the concrete jungle, so more likely to show an UHI effect than in the middle of a park that's somewhat centrally located.

CPK should be the perfect place to measure, but the issue there isn't the location, it's the competence of the people contracted to do the measurements. For decades the measurements were done by the Central Park Zoo staff, but this was switched over to the Conservancy staff in 2015. There are literally dozens of weather board conversations over the years on the consistent under-measurements there, even since the switch. And the worst example ever was likely the great blizzard of 1888, when 21" was measured in CPK, despite there being 50-foot drifts and a completely paralyzed city - and other reports of 30-36" from other parts of the City.

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/03/24/nws-adjusts-curiously-low-snowfall-totals-at-central-park/

https://www.boweryboyshistory.com/2013/02/frozen-in-time-blizzard-of-1888-knocks.html

Behind the Art Museum in what is called Waterworks would have been perfect for Philadelphia. In the "City" a mile from City Hall but not actually in the concrete jungle. Under control of the city longer then the Airport. It should have been put there.
The Airport/the land it is on never made sense. It's not close or even comparable to the city.

 

[retired711]

I need to take my wife to a doctor's appointment tomorrow, and I am wondering how likely there is that there will be frost on the car windshield. The temperature here in Cherry Hill right now is 27 degrees -- it didn't break freezing today --the humidity is 37% and the dew point is 4 degrees. The forecast for tonight is for the temperature to drop down to 16 degrees with a clear sky and a northwest wind from 5 to 10 mph that will become light west after midnight. I understand that the clear sky and light wind make it more likely that there will be frost -- but how likely?

 

[WhiteBus]

I need to take my wife to a doctor's appointment tomorrow, and I am wondering how likely there is that there will be frost on the car windshield. The temperature here in Cherry Hill right now is 27 degrees -- it didn't break freezing today --the humidity is 37% and the dew point is 4 degrees. The forecast for tonight is for the temperature to drop down to 16 degrees with a clear sky and a northwest wind from 5 to 10 mph that will become light west after midnight. I understand that the clear sky and light wind make it more likely that there will be frost -- but how likely?

I would think very little chance. Dew points very low.

 

[RU848789]

Behind the Art Museum in what is called Waterworks would have been perfect for Philadelphia. In the "City" a mile from City Hall but not actually in the concrete jungle. Under control of the city longer then the Airport. It should have been put there.
The Airport/the land it is on never made sense. It's not close or even comparable to the city.

Yeah, that would be perfect - when I was young and spent a lot of time in Philly (especially in my early 20s playing disc golf at Sedgley Woods in Fairmount Park) I always thought that area was part of Fairmount Park - in pre smart phone days, I thought anything along Kelly Drive was part of the park, lol.