This is long, but I think it’s pretty good.
It’s my All-Star break look at the Mets roster as it currently stands, with a focus on 2023. It will likely change. But its current status imposes limits on the degree that it can change. Cohen can’t pay EVERYBODY, can he? Silly me, of course he can. But will he?
This analysis includes 46 players: the 39 currently on the 40-man roster, plus the 6 on the 60-day IL, plus 1 Robinson Cano, the gift that keeps on giving.
GUARANTEED 2023 CONTRACTS - 7
Max Scherzer - $43.3M
Francisco Lindor - $32.5M
Starling Marte - $20.8M
Robinson Cano - $20.2M
James McCann - $12.2M
Mark Canha - $11.5M
Eduardo Escobar - $9.5M
Yep, that’s a cool $150 mill committed to just seven players, one of whom is long gone. To put it into perspective, that number would rank 14th in MLB 2022 payroll.
CONTRACTS WITH 2023 OPTIONS - 5
Jacob deGrom - $24.3M, player opt-out
Chris Bassitt - $19.0M, mutual option
Carlos Carrasco - $11.0M, club option, automatically vests at 170 innings
Taijuan Walker - $6.0M, player option with $3.0M buyout
John Curtiss - $0.8M, club option
Lots to unpack here. Lots of financial uncertainty which will no doubt impact other financial decisions. Unless Cohen really just doesn’t care how much he spends, with I cannot believe.
If deGrom is healthy, he will certainly opt out. He may do so even if he isn’t healthy. He will no doubt view Scherzer’s contract as a floor. Will Cohen pay?
Bassitt’s situation clouds the above decision. He has a $19M mutual option, meaning either party can exercise it. I am guessing he’ll be back. Would not be surprised if they rip up the option and he signs a backloaded 3 years for $55M.
Carrasco’s situation also muddies the waters. The Mets hold a $11M club option which automatically vests if he gets to 170 innings. He is currently at 99 innings, which puts him exactly on pace. Even if he doesn’t make it, the Mets could exercise the option anyway. But if you’re paying Scherzer, Bassitt, and Carrasco, can you also pay deGrom, who must be considered a questionmark until he isn’t?
Walker does not enter into this discussion as there is no chance he will execute his below-market option. He will be a free agent.
John Curtiss is an injured reliever whom the Mets signed this year to have him next year. Maybe we will hear from him again, maybe not.
FREE AGENTS - 8
Edwin Diaz
Tommy Hunter
Travis Jankowski
Seth Lugo
Trevor May
Brandon Nimmo
Adam Ottavino
Trevor Williams
The key names here of course are Diaz and Nimmo. Both tough calls. Diaz is having career year #2, but relief pitchers are SO volatile. Dare the Mets go long on Diaz? Nimmo has been good, but is he the CF you want to lock up long term? We must also consider Walker in this group.
ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE - 11
Pete Alonso
J.D. Davis
Luis Guillorme
Yoan Lopez
Joey Lucchesi
Jeff McNeil
Tomas Nido
David Peterson
Joely Rodriguez
Dom Smith
Drew Smith
This list must be looked at from two perspectives. First, is there anyone who you might want to lock up now, before they get to free agency? Obviously Alonso comes to mind, and possibly McNeil. I would be shocked if Alonso seriously entertains any such discussions though. His pot of gold is only 2.5 years away.
At the other end of the spectrum, who gets non-tendered? IMO you must tender Guillorme, Nido, Peterson, and (despite recent events) Drew Smith. Davis and Dom Smith? Could be interesting.
WELL PAID SLAVES (Curt Flood’s words, not mine) - 15
R.J. Alvarez
Jose Butto
Sam Clay
Colin Holderman
Khalil Lee
Ronny Mauricio
Patrick Mazeika
Adonis Medina
Tylor Megill
Stephen Nogosek
Nick Plummer
Sean Reid-Foley
Kramer Robertson
Thomas Szapucki
Mark Vientos
The noteworthy thing about this list is that it is not noteworthy at all. Where are the young, low-cost, controllable contributors? Megill, maybe Holderman? Perhaps Vientos before long, if he’s still here. Plus Alvarez and Baty on the horizon, if they’re still here.
SO… that’s the prognosis as of now. Ask me again after August 2!
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