OT: Significant (CNJ) to Major (Along/N of 78) Winter Storm Likely on Tuesday (2/12-13; much less uncertainty on outcome)
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5" along 195 to the coast is not 10:1 verbatim - it's more like 7:1 (for most models). I have no major issue with Zarrow and NWS being more conservative on this one (unlike where NWS was yesterday which was indefensible) - I just think they'll be a few inches under.
Great!
I'll probably have to shovel twice if I'm getting 6+ (just above 78).
Do I need to finally get a snow blower as I'm turning 40?
It's not a money issue.
Mostly annoyed it would be taking up space all year when not in use.
Maybe just get a snow service.
What's the cost benefit between the two for people?
Numbers has been correct 48 hours out by saying it would likely come in greater that 5 inches in north jersey.
You’ve been wrong until this morning.
Not a weather guy but I do fly alot. If you need to be home by Tuesday evening, fly home today instead if you can. Tuesday will be a disaster all day and the delays pile up alot as the day goes on. Even if its stopped snowing for 5 hours, it will take at least one overnight for EWR to fully catch up.
Go by an Ariens. Moves snow with ease. The big box stores sell them. I got the one with the compact auger so it’s easier to store.
Side question, why is my NWS forecast page for the Belmar area out of Philly, and not NYC? Is it because I'm in "Central Jersey?" 🤔
The 12Z GFS is a snowbomb with 8-14" for CNJ/NNJ/NYC and even 6"+ for Philly/SNJ (at 10:1 ratios); ratios would likely be greater than the 6-8:1 Kuchera shows, given the intensity of the snowfall and great snow crystal growth aloft. Will summarize the 12Z models later today, but none so far give any indication that this storm is going to go off the rails.
That really sucks. On the fire front, we often seem to get a major fire in the middle of a huge snowstorm or deep freeze. Hard work becomes harder.
Thanks for doing "your part" with the snowblower.
NWS-NYC governs Union/Essex/Hudson/Bergen/Passaic, probably because they're part of NYC Metro (Middlesex is too, but whatever).
Snow service ftw, at least for me. $50 per event and I have a driveway that is 175’ by 50’….more than worth it.
And if folks think my comments about 1-2" snowfall rates (with good crystal growth aloft and minimal melting once there's a snow layer on the ground) largely negating Kuchera or snow depth algorithms - which is why if we have >1" per hour rates, I'd expect more like 8-9:1 ratios not the 0.6-0.7 Kuchera/snow depth ratios - are wrong, I just had 6 degreed mets like my long explanation of all that on the Discord site. Same thing happened in the Nov 2018 storm and April 2018.
I put my snowblower back in the shed got a project going on in the garage and needed the space. I'm in W. Monmouth cty so we wont be getting anything of note.
I think you have to reverse that (from shed TO garage) to get those results (not getting anything of note). 😉
The maps I’m seeing on AmericanWX are all over the place. I guess that’s why they are referring to them as clown maps. One shows Freehold getting pounded up to 18” lol
There is a very large bust potential with this storm. The higher amounts could verify OVER what is being forecast. The smaller amounts could verify as well. How much is able to accumulate at first and as we move through the day depends on a couple degree difference and rates. If the rates are strong for long periods things could pile up. Some places will do better than others.
Unfortunately forecasters have a mess on their hands to decide
Unfortunately forecasters have a mess on their hands to decide
My weatherunderground app has already backed off for here in Cherry Hill. They went from 5 inches to now 2. But it's rarely every accurate. LOL.
Agreed. Huge busy potential for CNJ. Remember, all that matters is what sticks. What falls is irrelevant.
Based on my weather app for tomorrow AM, it will be above freezing in NW Bergen until 8 AM. Based on that I would assume nothing sticks to the pavement and may only accumulate on lawns between 8am - noon. I get the upper air may be colder but what am I missing here to give me 8-12" tomorrow?
He just likes to troll certain posters. He adds nothing otherwise.
I have no faith in TWC because it has a commercial interest in predicting bad weather -- otherwise no one would watch. Philly's Channel 3 and Channel 10 are talking 1-3 inches for the Philly metro area. But we'll see. As you always emphasize, fairly small changes in conditions can make a big difference in the result.
Being up higher in Wayne, we could have the temps cold enough where it comes down all snow and sticks.
Let's summarize the 12Z models, and I'm using 10:1 ratios here, since if high intensity (>1"/hr) snowfall rates are observed as forecasted ratios would likely be in the 8-9:1 range, as crystal growth will be very good in the DGZ and melting will be overcome without too much loss, meaning the Kuchera/snow depth algorithms are too low IMO (shared by many mets), except near the edge of changeover areas near 195 and the coast where 6-7:1 will likely be more accurate. 10:1 maps also give one the exact amount of precip that falls as snow.
Anyway, the 12Z HRRR, NAM, and GFS are summarized in the quotes above (all 3 very snowy). The 12Z RGEM is not as snowy with a 5" line along 276/195 and 6-8" for most of NEPA/CNJ/NNJ/NYC/LI, while the 12Z CMC is similar to the RGEM on the low side, but has 12"+ along/N of 78 up to 84 (but W of the TPK).
Another model not discussed often, but which is considered pretty good, is the HREF (it's a mixture of high resolution model outputs), which shows a 4" line close to 276/195, a 6" line from Trenton to AP and a 10" line from New Hope to Rahway with 12-18" between 80 and 84.
However, we have a new fly in the ointment, as the 12Z UK and Euro both had much less precip than the other models. The UK only has 4-7" for most of the area down to 195/276 (and even down to Toms River) and <4" north of 80, while the 12Z Euro is fairly similar with 5-8" for most of CNJ/NYC and down to Toms River, but also with 2-4" N of 80 with less precip. Lack of intensity/precip has been my biggest reason for thinking the heavy snows might not work out, as this leads to less snow falling and more melting.
Given all of the above, I still think the NWS is too low south of 78 down to 276/195 and the coast and even further towards Philly and I will be very surprised if they and other media don't increase their snowfall amounts for those areas to something like what TWC has, below, but then again the UK/Euro might just give them enough pause to not make significant changes. That's why forecasting winter storms around here is so damn hard. I think the NWS amounts are great along/N of 78 with the 8" line basically being 78 and more north of there (unless the UK/Euro are right and N of 80 sees less snow/precip).
All of the snowfall maps are at this link:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...any-on-feb-13/?do=findComment&comment=7211123
The Weather Channel app shows Jackson at 5-8 inches. Yesterday they had 1-3 inches.
It also looks like the temperature jumps to 40 or higher as soon as the snow ends. Do I even have to clear the driveway, or can I just let it melt?
It also looks like the temperature jumps to 40 or higher as soon as the snow ends. Do I even have to clear the driveway, or can I just let it melt?
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Really going out on a limb with that prediction.
😁
And here is 6ABC noon run.
AccuWeather: Rain tonight and some wet flakes Friday in the Philadelphia region
Heavy rain and gusty winds arrive tonight with a blast of much cooler air for the end of the week.
Seems like Trenton is still remaining in that lower totals area. I’m fine with it!And here is 6ABC noon run.
AccuWeather: Rain tonight and some wet flakes Friday in the Philadelphia region
Heavy rain and gusty winds arrive tonight with a blast of much cooler air for the end of the week.6abc.com
They closed due to housing needs, nothing to do with the storm
the issue is with Numbers there is a bias to really hype the big totals, trying to cut through the noise and see what the professionals are saying becomes difficult. Run to run 10-1 clown maps are not a forecast.
