OT: Significant (CNJ) to Major (Along/N of 78) Winter Storm Likely on Tuesday (2/12-13; much less uncertainty on outcome)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Interesting post from the NWS highlighting the changes in higher/lower accumulation areas as per the map in the post. Shows areas NW of 84 likely getting less than originally thought and areas SE of 95 likely getting more. Still talking about 2" per hour rates being possible and 95 is likely close to that or in that banding.
As I was saying they should have done the NWS upgraded Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Lower Buc to warnings for 4-7" given the shift south in the likely heaviest snow. And they expanded the advisories to Philadelphia, Delaware, Eastern Monmouth, Camden, Northwestern Burlington and Ocean for 2-4" of snow.
FWIW, the very local forecast for the 08736 zip code, on the Monmouth/Ocean County border, now say 1-3" of accumulation. Prior to these evening, the call was for less than 1".As I was saying they should have done the NWS upgraded Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Lower Buc to warnings for 4-7" given the shift south in the likely heaviest snow. And they expanded the advisories to Philadelphia, Delaware, Eastern Monmouth, Camden, Northwestern Burlington and Ocean for 2-4" of snow.
Any chance this thing shifts 200 miles north and snows where it’s supposed to? Kind of the opposite of what I need.
@RU848789 what is your current thoughts for Trenton accumulations?
I am seeing schools call for delayed openings. That seems to make no sense
State offices are closed tomorrow
Well, I just looked at about 6 recent models and the mean was about 6-7" of 10:1 snow and with the shift south, temps for every model have gotten colder (to 32-33F) and with most of the precip done by 10 am, and with decent rates for about 6 hours to get those 6-7", I'd guess ratios would be in the 8-9: range, so let's call it 5-6" for Trenton. And the way the models are trending, with less precip/snow and less front end rain and cooler, just about the whole 95 corridor from Trenton to NYC and 30-40 miles NW of that line and 30-40 miles SE of that line is now seeing fairly similar forecasted snowfall in the 5-9" range at 10:1 with probably will be in the 4-7" range with ratios and if you had told me a week ago that this event might deliver that, I'd have been ecstatic. Sure getting a monster storm over a foot would be awesome, but this is way better for snow lovers than 1-2" of sloppy slush on only grass.
Even in the Belmar/Manasquan/ Sea Girt/Spring Lake areas?
Some of us prefer wet and sloppy.
help me out with the Belmar/Manasquan/Wall area. What's the best (low) and worst (high) case scenarios. Very uncertain?
Sorry, my work blocks me from using imgur, so I have to wait to get home to add images to my album and post them.
Anyway, at 2:22 this afternoon the Philly office had this:
But later they backed off their totals:
wow thats a pretty big shift on their mapSorry, my work blocks me from using imgur, so I have to wait to get home to add images to my album and post them.
Anyway, at 2:22 this afternoon the Philly office had this:
But later they backed off their totals:
000
WWUS41 KPHI 130256
WSWPHI
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
956 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
PAZ101>104-131600-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0006.240213T0800Z-240213T2000Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0003.240213T0500Z-240213T2000Z/
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester,
Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, and Lansdale
956 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Western Chester, Eastern Chester, Western Montgomery
and Eastern Montgomery.
* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Briefly heavy snow will be possible around
the time of the morning commute, with snowfall rates up to 1
inch per hour possible. There is uncertainty regarding snow
amounts and how efficiently the snow will accumulate on roads,
given mild temperatures with precipitation starting as rain
overnight. Southern areas of Chester County will likely not get
to warning-level snow. The highest amounts will be confined to
the northern part of the county and highest elevations.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
NJZ001-PAZ054-055-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.240213T0400Z-240213T2000Z/
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Newton, Jim Thorpe, and Stroudsburg
956 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST
TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of around
one tenth of an inch.
* WHERE...In New Jersey, Sussex. In Pennsylvania, Carbon and
Monroe.
* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Particularly heavy snowfall will be
possible around the time of the morning commute, with snowfall
rates of around 1 inch per hour possible.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
NJZ007-008-PAZ061-062-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.240213T0500Z-240213T2000Z/
Warren-Morris-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Allentown,
Bethlehem, and Easton
956 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST
TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
inches.
* WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Morris. In Pennsylvania,
Lehigh and Northampton.
* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates over 1 inch per hour are
expected at times Tuesday morning, making for a potentially
treacherous morning commute along the I-78 and I-80 corridors.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
NJZ009-010-PAZ060-105-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.240213T0500Z-240213T2000Z/
Hunterdon-Somerset-Berks-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Flemington, Somerville, Reading,
Chalfont, and Perkasie
956 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST
TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...In New Jersey, Hunterdon and Somerset. In
Pennsylvania, Berks and Upper Bucks.
* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Particularly heavy snowfall will be
possible around the time of the morning commute, with snowfall
rates of around 1 inch per hour possible.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
NJZ012-013-015-PAZ106-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.240213T0500Z-240213T2000Z/
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton,
Morrisville, and Doylestown
956 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST
TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
* WHERE...In New Jersey, Middlesex, Western Monmouth and Mercer.
In Pennsylvania, Lower Bucks.
* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Briefly heavy snow will be possible
around the time of the morning commute, with snowfall rates of
up to 1 inch per hour possible. There is uncertainty regarding
snow amounts and how efficiently the snow will accumulate on
roads, given mild temperatures with precipitation starting as
rain overnight.
WWUS41 KPHI 130256
WSWPHI
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
956 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
PAZ101>104-131600-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0006.240213T0800Z-240213T2000Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0003.240213T0500Z-240213T2000Z/
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester,
Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, and Lansdale
956 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Western Chester, Eastern Chester, Western Montgomery
and Eastern Montgomery.
* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Briefly heavy snow will be possible around
the time of the morning commute, with snowfall rates up to 1
inch per hour possible. There is uncertainty regarding snow
amounts and how efficiently the snow will accumulate on roads,
given mild temperatures with precipitation starting as rain
overnight. Southern areas of Chester County will likely not get
to warning-level snow. The highest amounts will be confined to
the northern part of the county and highest elevations.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
NJZ001-PAZ054-055-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.240213T0400Z-240213T2000Z/
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Newton, Jim Thorpe, and Stroudsburg
956 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST
TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of around
one tenth of an inch.
* WHERE...In New Jersey, Sussex. In Pennsylvania, Carbon and
Monroe.
* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Particularly heavy snowfall will be
possible around the time of the morning commute, with snowfall
rates of around 1 inch per hour possible.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
NJZ007-008-PAZ061-062-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.240213T0500Z-240213T2000Z/
Warren-Morris-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Allentown,
Bethlehem, and Easton
956 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST
TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
inches.
* WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Morris. In Pennsylvania,
Lehigh and Northampton.
* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates over 1 inch per hour are
expected at times Tuesday morning, making for a potentially
treacherous morning commute along the I-78 and I-80 corridors.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
NJZ009-010-PAZ060-105-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.240213T0500Z-240213T2000Z/
Hunterdon-Somerset-Berks-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Flemington, Somerville, Reading,
Chalfont, and Perkasie
956 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST
TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...In New Jersey, Hunterdon and Somerset. In
Pennsylvania, Berks and Upper Bucks.
* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Particularly heavy snowfall will be
possible around the time of the morning commute, with snowfall
rates of around 1 inch per hour possible.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
NJZ012-013-015-PAZ106-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.240213T0500Z-240213T2000Z/
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton,
Morrisville, and Doylestown
956 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST
TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
* WHERE...In New Jersey, Middlesex, Western Monmouth and Mercer.
In Pennsylvania, Lower Bucks.
* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Briefly heavy snow will be possible
around the time of the morning commute, with snowfall rates of
up to 1 inch per hour possible. There is uncertainty regarding
snow amounts and how efficiently the snow will accumulate on
roads, given mild temperatures with precipitation starting as
rain overnight.
Oh joy. Thanks.
For the record, you add a lot to these threads when you are not tweaking #'s. He's admittedly a snow lover but he does a good job, especially with the unwarranted trolling he gets from the many idiots I have on ignore.
These threads are at their best when you guys are civil with each other. Thanks again.
There are a few possible minor events over the next 10 days, but Saturday morning looks unimpressive from here.
Thanks, wasn't showing up for me, but now there's a further update...which takes a little more away in the W and adds some more towards SNJ/SEPA and the coastSorry, my work blocks me from using imgur, so I have to wait to get home to add images to my album and post them.
Anyway, at 2:22 this afternoon the Philly office had this:
But later they backed off their totals:
Yes, even there. No model shows less than 8" for those areas and one, the new 0Z GFS shows over a foot; these are 10:1 ratios and the shore is one location likely to be a bit warmer, so Kuchera might apply here, meaning actual accumulations would likely be ~5-6" for most of the models, but 8-9" if the GFS is right. Having said that the NWS still has that area in the 3-4" swath, which isn't that far off the 5-6" amount I mentioned (their numbers are their best estimate of what will be on the ground, i.e., ratios are already factored in). Unless other models come in hot later tonight, I'd guesstimate 5-6" with a low end of the 3-4" the NWS is estimating.
And the 0Z GFS complicates things again, as we now have a very snowy outlier as it continues to show 8-13" from Wilmington to Toms River (the 8" line) and north of there to 84. These would likely be 6-11" factoring in 8:1 ratios (better than Kuchera for most). And the 0Z CMC is pretty similar to the RGEM with both showing 6-10" (and spots to 12") for EPA/CNJ/NNJ/NYC/LI/SENY. So there are no signs of a last minute track shift or significant weakening of the storm and overall the 0Z models are a little snowier than the 18Z models. So, almost the whole state of NJ is essentially in for a very snowy time from 4 am to noon roughly with at least 4-6" for everyone outside of SENJ, if the models are right (NWS still not bought in S of 276/195 for such amounts).
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Hmm. And it required how many posts on a football board to get that? NONE? WHA??!!
Lonnie Quinn (yes, probably not the best weatherman in the city but I had channel 2 on) adjusted his map from this evening. Took away the 10-14 swath but extended the 5-9 swath.
He says he doubts anyone sees double digits, but a more wider area will see 6 inches.
He says he doubts anyone sees double digits, but a more wider area will see 6 inches.
And I agree with him. Highly doubt anyone sees the numbers thrown out from this afternoon (10-18”) which yes, some models are still spitting out. Don’t think that was ever reasonable.
Think a good 6-10 in the hardest hit spots is a good call, with 4-8 elsewhere. And those hardest hit spots will be impossible to pin point until the bands set up,
Yeah, I really like his new map, below, which I think is more accurate than the NWS map, especially as it has more snow for along/SE of 95 and towards the coast as well as towards Philly/SNJ.
As of 5 am, we're at 33F with 1/2" of mixed snow/sleet on the ground. Just woke up at 5 am so I didn't see the changeover, but the radar indicates we likely changed from rain to snow around 4 am. Every surface is covered including the streets in front of our house and it's likely having some sleet helped with overcoming melting as sleet pellets have a much lower surface area per unit volume than snowflakes and melting only occurs at the surface, so melting is much slower for sleet. For all of those saying snow/sleet wouldn't accumulate after the rain with above 32F temperatures, you should've paid attention to my days of posts on this, lol.
I posted the latest NWS snowfall maps below and the NWS is calling for all areas along/N of 276/195 up through I-84 to get 6-8" generally between those two lines. South of about 276/195 the NWS has progressively less snowfall presumably due to a later changeover time and melting/ratio issues, which are a legitimate concern; the NWS has a 3" line from about Chester to Toms River and less south of that line. Interestingly, the NWS is calling for a bit less snow than the 6Z models are generally showing.
Specifically, the 06Z models (data inputs at 1 am) are a bit snowier than the 0Z models for snowfall, indicating we might get 8-12" of snow in most of CNJ/NNJ/NEPA/NYC/LI (north of about 276/195) if we get 10:1 ratios, but I'm guessing ratios might be more like 8:1 (some melting/compaction due to marginal surface temps), which would still be 6-10" of snow, which is a bit more than 6-8" NWS forecast. Also, ratios will likely be 10:1 or better NW of 95 and N of 78 so those areas could actually get 8-12". Still liking my 7.2" prediction for my house and hoping to exceed that. The models are generally showing less than about 6" only south of about a Philly to Toms River line, but even Cape May could get a couple of inches. Ratios will certainly be worse south of 276/195 so 8-12" on a 10:1 model there would likely be more like 5-7" at 6:1 ratios and 6" at 6:1 would only be 3.6".
Will be interesting to see if the NWS is right on this or the latest models. That's enough about models and snowfall amounts for now. Back to the radars and due for a walk.
Specifically, the 06Z models (data inputs at 1 am) are a bit snowier than the 0Z models for snowfall, indicating we might get 8-12" of snow in most of CNJ/NNJ/NEPA/NYC/LI (north of about 276/195) if we get 10:1 ratios, but I'm guessing ratios might be more like 8:1 (some melting/compaction due to marginal surface temps), which would still be 6-10" of snow, which is a bit more than 6-8" NWS forecast. Also, ratios will likely be 10:1 or better NW of 95 and N of 78 so those areas could actually get 8-12". Still liking my 7.2" prediction for my house and hoping to exceed that. The models are generally showing less than about 6" only south of about a Philly to Toms River line, but even Cape May could get a couple of inches. Ratios will certainly be worse south of 276/195 so 8-12" on a 10:1 model there would likely be more like 5-7" at 6:1 ratios and 6" at 6:1 would only be 3.6".
Will be interesting to see if the NWS is right on this or the latest models. That's enough about models and snowfall amounts for now. Back to the radars and due for a walk.
As of 6 am, it's still 33F and we have almost 1" of snow/sleet on the ground with it being all snow sinsce about 5:30 pm with moderate snow falling now (nice dendrites). Going to need more intensity (more than 1" per hour and we've been less than that), though, to get more than 7" by noon, when things wind down.
Reports of 4-5" already in the Lehigh Valley, NWNJ, despite their forecasts being reduced to 4-8" - they're going to kill that forecast, lol. Seems like that's where the best banding has been so far, plus they changed over sooner and likely have better than 10:1 ratios. Sounds like the snow/sleet line has reached the NW suburbs of Philly over to Trenton and across NJ near 195.
Woke up at 4:30 am and it was changing over. Did a salt run and 206 in Hillsborough was untreated as side roads. Saw some salt trucks out. Maybe 1/2 inch on roads. That's all I care about. i don't care how much is on the grass it's what's on walks and roads I clear not grass. Anyway roads are very bad in Hillsborough.
The NWS reports that it is 34 degrees in Mount Holly. The forecast is for a high of 39. There is mixed precipitation that rattles against the windows as though it's sleet. If this keeps up, the morning commute will be a mess. Only in the past few minutes has there been anything white on the ground, and that is all on the grass.
The forecast had been for the changeover to happen by 6 a.m. I suspect that the 2-4 inches estimate [just revised to 3-5 inches] currently on the NWS web page for my zip code. is going to turn out to be greater than reality. The forecast discussion displays great uncertainty. But as usual, we'll see. One thing for sure: anyone in my area who can stay home should. Mixed precipitation, in my experience, is often more dangerous for drivers than snow.
The forecast had been for the changeover to happen by 6 a.m. I suspect that the 2-4 inches estimate [just revised to 3-5 inches] currently on the NWS web page for my zip code. is going to turn out to be greater than reality. The forecast discussion displays great uncertainty. But as usual, we'll see. One thing for sure: anyone in my area who can stay home should. Mixed precipitation, in my experience, is often more dangerous for drivers than snow.
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