OT-SNOW FRIDAY-FIRST DAY OF SPRING 2-4" (Maybe 6"?) NORTH OF I-78

[Knight Shift]

"It's not going to feel or look anything like spring," said David A.
Robinson, a snow cover expert and the New Jersey state climatologist at
Rutgers University.
Robinson said "it's going to be really tricky with this forecast. The
dynamics are there for a modest-sized event, so this isn't something
that you have to kind of dream up. The dynamics are there, but the
question always … is when things phase, how much precipitation falls,
whether it's rain or snow and in this case you have to factor in how
much will accumulate."
"There's not a lot (of) cold air with the
system, so in order to get it to stick, it's going to have to snow
pretty hard," he said. "This could be a snow-lover's frustration, where
they see it snow all day and it just doesn't accumulate. That's really
good news if you're on the roads."
This post was edited on 3/19 6:48 AM by Knight Shift

Snow

 

[RU848789]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring!?

Marginal system with temps likely too warm for much snow or accumulating snow on Friday, but we're 3 days out and that can still change depending on the actual track and the actual amount of cold air we have in place at that time. While the likely forecast is mostly rain for the coastal plain and a mix inland of I-95, with a few inches possible, we're only 1-2F away from a few inches everywhere (with several in the realm of possibility; all rain is also quite possible). It's simply hard to get a decent snowfall when climatology says it should be 50F for a high.

Today's models show a mix of precip types for Friday morning and throughtout the day, although it will have to snow pretty hard to overcome surface temps in the low/mid-30s (this won't be like the 3/6 or earlier storms where it was in the 20s) and the late March indirect sun angle, in order to achieve accumulations between 10 am and 4 pm. Here's the NWS graphic of probability of >1" snow. Low, but not zero, by any means. Higher chances to the S/W, due to the storm likely being further south. Not worth worrying about yet, but stay tuned...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46044-320-21-potential-winter-storm/

 

[RU848789]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring!?

NWS still pretty skeptical of any significant snowstorm, but even 1-2", as predicted for areas just NW of I-95, especially north of 78, means more is possible. Also means less is possible, including a complete whiff or all rain. ~60 hours away, so still not worth worrying about (especially with regard to major impacts on major roads, which will likely be just wet - could be one of those snowfalls that really only accumulates on grass/cars), but worth keeping an eye on, in case things change.

 

[Knight Shift]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring!?

Is this the latest map, 1-2" (which will not display)?

This post was edited on 3/18 5:58 AM by Knight Shift

NWS Snow Map

 

[RU848789]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring!?

Originally posted by Knight Shift:
Is this the latest map, 1-2" (which will not display)?






This post was edited on 3/18 5:58 AM by Knight Shift

Yes, 1-2" right along the NW side of the I-95 corridor and 2-3" north of 78 and 3-4" for Sussex/Poconos. Just S/E of the I-95 corridor (including even along the Turnpike) their map has about an inch expected and towards the coast there should be little or no accumulation, as per their discussion. NWS in NYC has 2-3" for NYC metro/NE NJ from Union County/SI northward, with 1-2" in southern portions of SI/LI; will try to paste their map - link below is to the Philly NWS map.

This is a slightly colder, snowier solution than yesterday, which brings even more snow for the I-95 corridor into play (i.e., would now take a smaller shift to get to more snow). Still wouldn't expect major impacts on the roads, due to borderline surface temps, especially after about 9 am, but 7-9 am could be a bit slushy on some roads.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

This post was edited on 3/18 8:33 AM by RU848789

 

[Knight Shift]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring!?

So you caught that they upped the snow amounts in the northern/western parts of NJ.
Map did not update

Latest Snow Map

 

[DJ Spanky]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" North of I-78

My buddy in Binghamton is in the process of getting 1-3 inches this morning.

 

[Knight Shift]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" North of I-78

The Maximum Map (10% Chance) is calling for up to about 2 inches in Ocean County and about 4 inches in Monmouth County and 4-5 inches on the I-78 Corridor.

Maximum Map

 

[bac2therac]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring!?


to be fair if you are going to post the maximum map, you better also show the minimum map which shows ZERO for most

 

[DJ Spanky]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" North of I-78

Here's the two maps as of noon:

 

[Knight Shift]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" North of I-78

Originally posted by DJ Spanky:
Here's the two maps as of noon:

Are those the noon maps, and were they updated?

Was going to post forecast, max's and min's, but they do not seem to be updated.

 

[bac2therac]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" North of I-78


the min/max maps are what they are, I wouldn't get too caught up in worryimg about them.

The projected snowfall map is the one you want to look at and again this is mostly grassy surface accumulations especially south of 78

 

[RU848789]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring!?

Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by Knight Shift:
Is this the latest map, 1-2" (which will not display)?






This post was edited on 3/18 5:58 AM by Knight Shift

Yes, 1-2" right along the NW side of the I-95 corridor and 2-3" north of 78 and 3-4" for Sussex/Poconos. Just S/E of the I-95 corridor (including even along the Turnpike) their map has about an inch expected and towards the coast there should be little or no accumulation, as per their discussion. NWS in NYC has 2-3" for NYC metro/NE NJ from Union County/SI northward, with 1-2" in southern portions of SI/LI; will try to paste their map - link below is to the Philly NWS map.

This is a slightly colder, snowier solution than yesterday, which brings even more snow for the I-95 corridor into play (i.e., would now take a smaller shift to get to more snow). Still wouldn't expect major impacts on the roads, due to borderline surface temps, especially after about 9 am, but 7-9 am could be a bit slushy on some roads.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

This post was edited on 3/18 8:33 AM by RU848789

Today's 12Z models all coming in colder/snowier with temps at or below 32F, now, for the event, which will enhance accumulation (and impacts on roads). Look to see forecasts go to 2-4" for most of Central Jersey and maybe 3-6" for areas north of 78, possibly even including most of NYC/LI (except maybe the very southern parts). Still 48 hours away and it's still late March, so bust potential is high, especially from I-95 S/E-ward, but we're looking at a likely snow/mix event for anyone north of 195/276 (and maybe even down towards Philly and SW NJ).

 

[Knight Shift]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring!?

Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by Knight Shift:
Is this the latest map, 1-2" (which will not display)?






This post was edited on 3/18 5:58 AM by Knight Shift

Yes, 1-2" right along the NW side of the I-95 corridor and 2-3" north of 78 and 3-4" for Sussex/Poconos. Just S/E of the I-95 corridor (including even along the Turnpike) their map has about an inch expected and towards the coast there should be little or no accumulation, as per their discussion. NWS in NYC has 2-3" for NYC metro/NE NJ from Union County/SI northward, with 1-2" in southern portions of SI/LI; will try to paste their map - link below is to the Philly NWS map.

This is a slightly colder, snowier solution than yesterday, which brings even more snow for the I-95 corridor into play (i.e., would now take a smaller shift to get to more snow). Still wouldn't expect major impacts on the roads, due to borderline surface temps, especially after about 9 am, but 7-9 am could be a bit slushy on some roads.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

This post was edited on 3/18 8:33 AM by RU848789

Today's 12Z models all coming in colder/snowier with temps at or below 32F, now, for the event, which will enhance accumulation (and impacts on roads). Look to see forecasts go to 2-4" for most of Central Jersey and maybe 3-6" for areas north of 78, possibly even including most of NYC/LI (except maybe the very southern parts). Still 48 hours away and it's still late March, so bust potential is high, especially from I-95 S/E-ward, but we're looking at a likely snow/mix event for anyone north of 195/276 (and maybe even down towards Philly and SW NJ).

bac is not going to like that and he will disagree. Just kidding, bac.

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" North of I-78

The battle of the WISH-CASTS (on both sides) begins...since A LOT of weather queens are notorious for forecasting what they want...

 

[RU848789]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" North of I-78

Originally posted by West Point Knight:
The battle of the WISH-CASTS (on both sides) begins...since A LOT of weather queens are notorious for forecasting what they want...

Do you actually think my post is a "wishcast?" Every 12Z model, including the Euro, which has regained its luster to a certain extent, as it has done well with the past few storms, and has been very consistently showing similar solutions for several runs, went colder and snowier. In fact the Euro is showing 6" or more from Trenton to Sandy Hook and north of that line (and shows a 3" line from Wilmington to Toms River). I'll be amazed if the NWS doesn't increase snowfall predictions.

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" North of I-78

Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by West Point Knight:
The battle of the WISH-CASTS (on both sides) begins...since A LOT of weather queens are notorious for forecasting what they want...

Do you actually think my post is a "wishcast?" Every 12Z model, including the Euro, which has regained its luster to a certain extent, as it has done well with the past few storms, and has been very consistently showing similar solutions for several runs, went colder and snowier. In fact the Euro is showing 6" or more from Trenton to Sandy Hook and north of that line (and shows a 3" line from Wilmington to Toms River). I'll be amazed if the NWS doesn't increase snowfall predictions.

it wasnt directed at you...just weather people in general...whom I call weather (drama) queens...but make no mistake, WISH-CASTING is a big component (both wishing for more and less)...you know which camp I reside in...

 

[bac2therac]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" North of I-78

The euro snowmap does not show 6 inches in central jersey...I just saw it on the philly forum...more like 0-4.maybe 5 northern Somerset

This post was edited on 3/18 4:07 PM by bac2therac

This post was edited on 3/18 4:11 PM by bac2therac

 

[bac2therac]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" North of I-78

Mt Holly did increase totals but stillvobly 1-3 around central jersey

 

[RU848789]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" North of I-78

Originally posted by bac2therac:
The euro snowmap does not show 6 inches in central jersey...I just saw it on the philly forum...more like 0-4.maybe 5 northern Somerset

This post was edited on 3/18 4:07 PM by bac2therac

This post was edited on 3/18 4:11 PM by bac2therac

Depends which version you're looking at - the one on the NYC forum shows what I said - different vendors have different maps, which is an issue. Bottom line is NWS upped accumulations by at least 1" pretty much across the board, so 1-2/2-4" is now forecast for Central Jersey from SE to NW. More is possible, as is less - very high risk forecast, with small temp changes potentially leading to major outcome changes.

 

[Knight Shift]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78

When is the next update? The FIOS News Channel (Don't laugh, no more weather channel) was not giving this much attention.

 

[Knight Shift]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78

Mr. G on WPIX 11 called for 1-3 inches across NJ and NYC.

 

[RU848789]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78

Tonight's models coming in similar to today's - fairly cold and snowy with 2-4" for most of the area and up to 6" in some areas, including possibly much of Central Jersey or possibly N/W of 78/287, depending on the model. Snow likely to move in at the tail end of the morning rush with the worst conditions likely in the late afternoon/early evening. Anywhere that doesn't change to rain for awhile is going to get a nice thump of 4-6" of snow, as there's over 1/2" of liquid equivalent likely to fall.

 

[RST95]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78

Is any of this really expected to stick on the roads?

 

[JMG1MON]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78

What time is this expected to start?

 

[RU1977]

Won't it melt on Saturday anyway?

 

[Veiox]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78

Originally posted by RST95:
Is any of this really expected to stick on the roads?

Same question here...I am supposed to drive from NNJ to Delaware during the late afternoon hours. My car is terrible in the snow.

 

[RU848789]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78

Originally posted by RU848789:
Tonight's models coming in similar to today's - fairly cold and snowy with 2-4" for most of the area and up to 6" in some areas, including possibly much of Central Jersey or possibly N/W of 78/287, depending on the model. Snow likely to move in at the tail end of the morning rush with the worst conditions likely in the late afternoon/early evening. Anywhere that doesn't change to rain for awhile is going to get a nice thump of 4-6" of snow, as there's over 1/2" of liquid equivalent likely to fall.

As expected, NWS again upped snowfall amounts and has issued advisories region-wide for 2-4" for most of Central Jersey down to Philly (where some rain may mix in, especially near the coast, holding accumulations down) and for 3-6", generally north of 78 (their advisores and maps conflict a bit, but some snow is coming). Should start before 9 am for most folks, except near NYC and roads for the morning rush could be a bit slick. During the day, roads should mostly be wet with the March sun angle and temps right around 32F, but snow will accumulate on paved surfaces when it's falling heavily enough, which it will do on occasion. Evening commute will likely be worse as it gets near dark. Snow should be done by mid-evening. Hope these maps paste properly...

http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

 

[RocktheRac]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78

Yup. Snow coming as the MILF's are hanging out at the Hillsborough Deli. They are concerned that the even though they will get inches the duration will be short.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78

by the looks of the 2 maps it looks like NY more confident in snow totals for somerset county area than mount holly

 

[Veiox]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78

Originally posted by Greene Rice FIG:
by the looks of the 2 maps it looks like NY more confident in snow totals for somerset county area than mount holly

The Mt Holly map is showing an older map. We have been seeing this problem recently.

I will try to post the latest below which can be found here:

http://www.weather.gov/images/phi/winter/StormTotalSnowRange.png



EDIT: Had to delete the map because of issue mentioned above.
This post was edited on 3/19 10:20 AM by Veiox

 

[mesa4234]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78

Originally posted by Greene Rice FIG:
by the looks of the 2 maps it looks like NY more confident in snow totals for somerset county area than mount holly

The Mt. Holly map isn't updating. I pretty much matches the NY map.




mt holly snow map

 

[bac2therac]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78


Mt Holly map is generally 3-4 for Central Jersey....less as you go south to the coast 1-2 and more as you go into northern somerset to morris to northern NJ where 4-6 is the call

 

[zappaa]

Re: Snow on the First Day of Spring -2-3" (Maybe 6"?) North of I-78

What am I getting in Montclair...damnit, I can't stand it.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Here ya go:

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

****ing sucks! Just when all the snow was finally gone...

 

[RU1977]

How much in Wayne? Looks like 3 inches?

 

[RUPete]

Originally posted by West Point Knight:
****ing sucks! Just when all the snow was finally gone...

Don't worry- this stuff won't be around long unless you're near #s yard. The snow hangs on for dear life there!

 

[JoeRU0304]

Jeez, this winter is like Jason in Friday the 13th...winter, you're done...go home- go back to syracuse.



Joe P.

 

[Doteman]

Hopefully it snows alot and we let go early, lotsa tournament games to watch tomorrow.