OT: Stock and Investment Talk

rutgersdave

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Let's be serious. You have been calling for a crash for years. Is this not true? You are one of the biggest bears on the board.
No, I have been in the market about 70% before Trump but when Trump started with his sudden trade tariffs threats that caused markets volatility that were unexpected which I didn’t like. I was even in the markets huge until 2/2017 before his tariffs threat. It took me about two quarters to figure out how to trade Trump. I just waited for his crazy tariff threats to buy when the market dropped. I was always in 20-30% in the market, the trading was for the additional 25-40% of my equity whenever I felt the stocks were at an attractive price.

I’m been posting for the last 2 years when I’m in and out of the market. It’s really a simply formula, buy quality tech tech when they down 12-17% and sell when they get close to their 52 week high. It’s been working and also kept me out during the March 2000 crash and allow me to get in afterward. I know you’re not suppose to be able to time the market. I also was out before the 2008 crash which Cramer actually predicted on his show.

The funny thing is that there’s no one way to make money in this market. My younger brother made his money trading stock options and my nephew is close to making 2 million in one year on Tesla and Bitcoin. I wouldn’t try them because I’m not familar with them. Some want to follow the basic rules in investing which Is good. Other trade like crazy, I don’t criticize their methods even RU -05. If you read Freida Boss post, it sounds like He would be in cash if he didn’t have other avenues of investing.
 
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RU in IM

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Did we have zero interest rates and the feds pumping last time?

well, you pitch yourself as a long-term investor. Do you think the rates will remain zero? I worry about you. I really do. In the mid 2000’s, not terribly long ago, rates went up 425 bp in a 16-month period. Unlikely to do that again, but you saw what happened when rates went up a little.
 
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T2Kplus20

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No, I have been in the market about 70% before Trump but when Trump started with his sudden trade tariffs threats that caused markets volatility that were unexpected which I didn’t like. I was even in the markets huge until 2/2017 before his tariffs threat. It took me about two quarters to figure out how to trade Trump. I just waited for his crazy tariff threats to buy when the market dropped. I was always in 20-30% in the market, the trading was for the additional 25-40% of my equity whenever I felt the stocks were at an attractive price.
Sounds good. Overall, those 4 years were amazing for the market, hope you didn't miss out too much. CW posted a good video on Friday. She mentioned that the market was spooked in fear that the feds may raise rates. This mini-correction is like baking in this fear, so if/when the feds do raise rates, it may not be a big deal anymore.

That said, Papa Powell was very firm on sticking to current fed policies so perhaps people freaked out last week for no reason.
 

jtung230

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click the 30 year chart. It shows that we’re in the “extreme bubble” category. And the last two times it got out of whack, we crashed.
Charts are good indicators but you have to dig deeper to trade off of that info. A dying business at 5 doesn’t mean it’s cheap or a good growth company at 35 means it’s expensive. I think there is a bubble but some sectors will pop and others will just let some air out.
 
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RU-05

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Jun 25, 2015
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click the 30 year chart. It shows that we’re in the “extreme bubble” category. And the last two times it got out of whack, we crashed.
1)Excellent, thank you.

2)The last time we went into "extreme bubble" P/E territory was 2008 into 2009. The financial crisis. Was the P/E that high because stocks ran up? Or because fundamentals crashed?

3)The market has been above the fair value range for 30 years. Which makes me wonder if there is a new norm. If what was considered fair value is no longer considered fair value. How objective is that categorization? Or if we have to accept that the market will forever, or at least can, trade above what is objectively fair market value. Even after the dot.com bubble crash, that chart has the S&P as over valued.
 

T2Kplus20

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well, you pitch yourself as a long-term investor. Do you think the rates will remain zero? I worry about you. I really do.
I'm a long term investor, but will adjust my allocations as needed. I highly doubt rates are going anywhere in 2021 and then you have 2022 which is a national election year. And yes, the fed is more politicized now than ever. It will trend lightly and only do the bare minimum of adjusting.
 

T2Kplus20

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Charts are good indicators but you have to dig deeper to trade off of that info. A dying business at 5 doesn’t mean it’s cheap or a good growth company at 35 means it’s expensive. I think there is a bubble but some sectors will pop and others will just let some air out.
A very reasonable and likely accurate post. 👍
 

T2Kplus20

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3)The market has been above the fair value range for 30 years. Which makes me wonder if there is a new norm. If what was considered fair value is no longer considered fair value. How objective is that categorization? Or if we have to accept that the market will forever, or at least can, trade above what is objectively fair market value. Even after the dot.com bubble crash, that chart has the S&P as over valued.
CW talked about this in Friday's video. Definitely worth watching.
 

RUDead

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When it comes to identifying bubbles, Grantham is as good as it gets. Yes, he often seems bearish but even when he sees overvaluation, he doesn’t counsel to exit. He does with bubbles, and he’s nailed each one in his career. Dalio’s record speaks for itself.

I've seen Grantham speak a couple times and got his newsletter for years. He's a great writer and brings up a lot of issues/data that you don't see elsewhere. But he sees bubbles everywhere and is almost always bearish.

Dalio is just too big at this point. He wlil struggle to outperfom going forward imo.

Gundlach is another great one to listen to.. If you can get a hold of his presentations, they are filled with great information.
 
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RU-05

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I also assume that the current P/E is based off 2020, and is not fwd looking, which is misleading given that the economy was artificially shut down, and will without question rebound in a pretty large way in the years ahead. Thus the P/E will settle back to the 30 year average given normalized earnings. If we complete a 10% market correction plus the economy kicking back in, we'd probably be below the 30 year average, perhaps significantly.
 
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rutgersdave

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I also assume that the current P/E is based off 2020, and is not fwd looking, which is misleading given that the economy was artificially shut down, and will without question rebound in a pretty large way in the years ahead. Thus the P/E will settle back to the 30 year average given normalized earnings. If we complete a 10% market correction plus the economy kicking back in, we'd probably be below the 30 year average, perhaps significantly.
Most of your stocks that you have been posting about don’t have any PE.
 

rurahrah000

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I enjoy your enthusiastic bullishness, but to be fair you think everyone that isn't 150% long is a bear. 😀

Everyone should be a long term bull. Stock markets always go up in the long term. There are however periods of extreme volatility which can be used for gains and better entry points. In the next few years, there will be bumps in the market. T2K is actually a smarter investor than we realize. He maintains his long term bull thesis but uses near term changes in sector sentiment to his advantage. That will work well for his level of investments.
 
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rutgersdave

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Everyone should be a long term bull. Stock markets always go up in the long term. There are however periods of extreme volatility which can be used for gains and better entry points. In the next few years, there will be bumps in the market. T2K is actually a smarter investor than we realize. He maintains his long term bull thesis but uses near term changes in sector sentiment to his advantage. That will work well for his level of investments.
I’m sure he’s a good investor but he has also mentioned that he has a large cash balance that he doesn’t consider in his investment. I consider all my liquid assets when I am 70% in when he might have 30% in cash which he doesn’t consider investable and say he 100% invested. I’m 65 and my investing objective is going to be different than his at 50. His problem is he thinks his way is the only way. I probably invest more than most 65 year old because I’m comfortable with the market.
 

RU-05

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Most of your stocks that you have been posting about don’t have any PE.

1)Well that's a different discussion altogether.


2)I mention stocks which have earnings quite often. GM is my largest holding and talk about them as my EV play.

Marvell, IIPR. Also amongst my top holdings, I've mentioned IIPR a couple times as a cannabis play.

Recently had a good discussion with Aldo regarding VZ vs T vs TMUS. Then brought VZ up again when I saw Buffet, like myself, bought some.

Also brought tried brining up the semiconductor sector, which has earnings across the board, a couple times, but there were no responses.

So I think you are incorrect with this remark.
 

T2Kplus20

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T2K, Are you in ETF or mutual funds and why?
Both. More funds than ETFs due to legacy account issues (3:1), but I'm fine with both. We have 6 retirement accounts. Our E-Trade brokerage account (12% of our assets) is all ETFs except for VWIGX. We recently did a formal IRA rollover and combined our 2 main retirement accounts (55% of our assets). We have a lot of awesome funds and some that are now closed, so we are sticking with them (Fidelity and T Rowe). However, we added in ARKK, SOXX, XSD, and XLE to the mix. So this account is roughly 3:1 funds.

I like the ease of ETFs, but as of now, funds have many more options. Not a stock picking guy. Too much work, too much hassle, and don't need to bother with it to meet our retirement goals.

The only place where I have individual stocks or trusts is with my new'ish crypto/fun account. I have GBTC, ETHE, and 4 individual stocks. This actually has been fun to learn about stocks and pick a few. However, this is a limited and super focused crypto market. I can't imagine doing this work for the entire market! No way!
 

rutgersdave

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1)Well that's a different discussion altogether.


2)I mention stocks which have earnings quite often. GM is my largest holding and talk about them as my EV play.

Marvell, IIPR. Also amongst my top holdings, I've mentioned IIPR a couple times as a cannabis play.

Recently had a good discussion with Aldo regarding VZ vs T vs TMUS. Then brought VZ up again when I saw Buffet, like myself, bought some.

Also brought tried brining up the semiconductor sector, which has earnings across the board, a couple times, but there were no responses.

So I think you are incorrect with this remark.
I agree and I brought VZ about a week before your discussion. I didn’t mean it to be a criticism but an observation.
 

rutgersdave

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Both. More funds than ETFs due to legacy account issues (3:1), but I'm fine with both. We have 6 retirement accounts. Our E-Trade brokerage account (12% of our assets) is all ETFs except for VWIGX. We recently did a formal IRA rollover and combined our 2 main retirement accounts (55% of our assets). We have a lot of awesome funds and some that are now closed, so we are sticking with them (Fidelity and T Rowe). However, we added in ARKK, SOXX, XSD, and XLE to the mix. So this account is roughly 3:1 funds.

I like the ease of ETFs, but as of now, funds have many more options. Not a stock picking guy. Too much work, too much hassle, and don't need to bother with it to meet our retirement goals.

The only place where I have individual stocks or trusts is with my new'ish crypto/fun account. I have GBTC, ETHE, and 4 individual stocks. This actually has been fun to learn about stocks and pick a few. However, this is a limited and super focused crypto market. I can't imagine doing this work for the entire market! No way!
I only buy ETF since the 2008 crash, I had a small portion of my equity in mutual funds but when I wanted to trade out early in the day the settlement happens at the end of the day. This caused an additional 25% lose from the transaction That could have been prevented with ETF.
 

RU-05

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I agree and I brought VZ about a week before your discussion. I didn’t mean it to be a criticism but an observation.
An observation unrelated to the post to which you responded. So yeah, I'm a little touchy to such a response. I'm also a little touchy to the remarks of "the only thing you guys talk about is bitcoin".

I'll talk BTC, and I'll talk penny stocks. And until the past couple weeks I've done ridiculously well in both spaces, but that is not all that I talk about.

In this case I was talking the historical P/E of the S&P.
 
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T2Kplus20

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Everyone should be a long term bull. Stock markets always go up in the long term. There are however periods of extreme volatility which can be used for gains and better entry points. In the next few years, there will be bumps in the market. T2K is actually a smarter investor than we realize. He maintains his long term bull thesis but uses near term changes in sector sentiment to his advantage. That will work well for his level of investments.
I forgot to mention this before, you are an outstanding poster! One of the most insightful on the board. 😁

I describe my style of investing like this. I don't look to pick the right waves that hit the beach, but rather adjust with the tides. Picking waves is very tricky. Those opportunities come and go in the blink of an eye. Tides are much easier to enjoy. You just need to pay attention and ID what is going on. I moved out of global/EM 5 years ago and saved a lot of money (back in now). I went heavy on growth/tech in Jan 2019 and it was a home run. I increased our allocations of small/mid caps in August 2020 and that worked out well.

#ridethetides
 
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T2Kplus20

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I only buy ETF since the 2008 crash, I had a small portion of my equity in mutual funds but when I wanted to trade out early in the day the settlement happens at the end of the day. This caused an additional 25% lose from the transaction That could have been prevented with ETF.
That ETF could have been down by 25% already, who knows. That's obviously an extreme example and something that I doubt most people would ever deal with. If I had a choice of an ETF or fund for the same investment, I would take the ETF. However, there are no ETFs for FDGRX, PRGTX, PRNHX, PRHSX, etc. The ETF industry is still in its growing stage.
 

rurahrah000

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I’m sure he’s a good investor but he has also mentioned that he has a large cash balance that he doesn’t consider in his investment. I consider all my liquid assets when I am 70% in when he might have 30% in cash which he doesn’t consider investable and say he 100% invested. I’m 65 and my investing objective is going to be different than his at 50. His problem is he thinks his way is the only way. I probably invest more than most 65 year old because I’m comfortable with the market.

Everyone has cash reserves that probably exceed their needs. My sister and brother-in-law are both cardiologists and earn a very healthy salary but still sit on more than 1 million in cash in their different savings accounts. I don’t consider that ideal but they sleep well at night knowing they have this level of comfort. My wife is a dermatologist and also makes good money and will not let me mess around with her 401k. To each their own.
 
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rurahrah000

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I forgot to mention this before, you are an outstanding poster! One of the most insightful on the board. 😁

I describe my style of investing like this. I don't look to pick the right waves that hit the beach, but rather adjust with the tides. Picking waves is very tricky. Those opportunities come and go in the blink of an eye. Tides are much easier to enjoy. You just need to pay attention and ID what is going on. I moved out of global/EM 5 years ago and saved a lot of money (back in now). I went heavy on growth/tech in Jan 2019 and it was a home run. I increased our allocations of small/mid caps in August 2020 and that worked out well.

#ridethetides

That’s the nicest thing a Trump supporter has ever said to me. See, there can be common ground between us all.
 
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RU-05

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Cash is not only good for buying dips. One should have 6 months of cash for emergencies/loss of jobs, etc.
I would think two separate piles for each would be the way to play it.

I do have my emergency cash, but my investment money I haven't developed that discipline yet. I'm almost always fully invested.
 

T2Kplus20

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BTC at $44K
ETH at $1350.
Saw that about and hour ago, what's up? Cardano and other alts are down as well. I guess just some afternoon weakness. I am set with all of my positions, so no more buying unless there is a crazy dip.
 
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T2Kplus20

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I would think two separate piles for each would be the way to play it.

I do have my emergency cash, but my investment money I haven't developed that discipline yet. I'm almost always fully invested.
We keep our main cash pile separate and don't mingle it with investments. We get paid every Friday (wife and I get paid biweekly and happen to alternate weeks). X goes to E-Trade and Y goes to Capital One or Ally online. Our cash reserves are a bit nuts, so we have turned off the inflow to our cash accounts. As such, for the time being, X+Y is going to E-Trade (including my annual bonuses that hit this Friday). Lots of money to invest!
 

RU-05

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Saw that about and hour ago, what's up? Cardano and other alts are down as well. I guess just some afternoon weakness. I am set with all of my positions, so no more buying unless there is a crazy dip.
I noticed it was down near these levels last night, so it's not just today.

What's up with it? I'd say normal crypto volatility. The question to ask, imo, is where is the support level? For ETH it is probably right about where it is given this was the all time highs back in early 2018, and a level it struggled with, if ever so briefly, late dec into early jan.

BTC? Maybe right here as well, which was the all time high it hit, and then retreated back from in early Jan.

As always I'll add my novice technicals reader disclaimer, but I'd think ETH has the more stable support given that all time high is from further back, while that BTC level was just a month and a half ago. A comparable historical support level for BTC, would be at 19K.
 
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T2Kplus20

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Everyone has cash reserves that probably exceed their needs. My sister and brother-in-law are both cardiologists and earn a very healthy salary but still sit on more than 1 million in cash in their different savings accounts. I don’t consider that ideal but they sleep well at night knowing they have this level of comfort. My wife is a dermatologist and also makes good money and will not let me mess around with her 401k. To each their own.
Very true. We didn't plan to have so much cash in reserves, but since we live below our means, it grew over the years. Each time we hit a new milestone, we never wanted to go back under it. My wife is more cash conservative than I am, but it is the right decision for us.

Our daughter's private K-12 and college money is also siloed.
 

T2Kplus20

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I noticed it was down near these levels last night, so it's not just today.

What's up with it? I'd say normal crypto volatility. The question to ask, imo, is where is the support level? For ETH it is probably right about where it is given this was the all time highs back in early 2018, and a level it struggled with, if ever so briefly, late dec into early jan.

BTC? Maybe right here as well, which was the all time high it hit, and then retreated back from in early Jan.

As always I'll add my novice technicals reader disclaimer, but I'd think ETH has the more stable support given that all time high is from further back, while that BTC level was just a month and a half ago. A comparable historical support level for BTC, would be at 19K.
Good thoughts and likely accurate. FYI, I have been watching Grayscale closely and it looks like some new trusts are coming soon. Even though I am set with my current positions, I will add in new money if GS launches a Cardano or Polkadot trust.

 

RUinPinehurst

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I've seen Grantham speak a couple times and got his newsletter for years. He's a great writer and brings up a lot of issues/data that you don't see elsewhere. But he sees bubbles everywhere and is almost always bearish.

Dalio is just too big at this point. He wlil struggle to outperfom going forward imo.

Gundlach is another great one to listen to.. If you can get a hold of his presentations, they are filled with great information.

Add Stanley Druckenmiller to the list.
 
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RU-05

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Championship plaza needs some trees.

Edit, not only the wrong thread, but the wrong board.
 

rurahrah000

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WSB guys are selling crypto to buy silver.

That definitely will end badly. CME has strict regulations on gold and silver. One of my analyst had suggested silver last year and we made 2x on it, but felt that it should have gone up 5-6x. That's when I learned how strictly CME regulates those commodities. Silver and gold also have a lot of industrial uses and I don't think they want those prices to go parabolic. GME is one thing. Silver is a whole another animal.
 

RU in IM

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Saw that about and hour ago, what's up? Cardano and other alts are down as well. I guess just some afternoon weakness. I am set with all of my positions, so no more buying unless there is a crazy dip.

lol, i’ll tell you what’s up; it trades on speculation and momentum, vs. any tried and true fundamentals.
 

T2Kplus20

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I noticed it was down near these levels last night, so it's not just today.

What's up with it? I'd say normal crypto volatility. The question to ask, imo, is where is the support level? For ETH it is probably right about where it is given this was the all time highs back in early 2018, and a level it struggled with, if ever so briefly, late dec into early jan.

BTC? Maybe right here as well, which was the all time high it hit, and then retreated back from in early Jan.

As always I'll add my novice technicals reader disclaimer, but I'd think ETH has the more stable support given that all time high is from further back, while that BTC level was just a month and a half ago. A comparable historical support level for BTC, would be at 19K.
FYI - interesting article. The premium of both GBTC and ETHE flipped and went negative.