OT: Tropical Storm Joaquin Forms - Close Call for NE US on Sat/Sun...
- Thread starter RU848789
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It is not on the graph.Question for weather weenies..... What is the abbreviation for the Euro?... is it one of the
plots on this graph?...thanks in advance
Its barely a bust. The storm only become a tropical storm Monday night, and by Thursday morning the NHC and most of the models have settled on an out to sea solution, with the NHC and the model ensembles acknowledging all along that that was just as likely as a landfall. Basically there was a 36 hour period where it looked like it might hit land at the very end of the five day forecast period.
So its hard to really call it a bust when they stated up front that it was basically a 50/50 shot of landfall or out to sea, at the END Of the forecast period - which is always the least accurate anyway. Its not like its Sunday and they are still forecasting a Monday landfall.
I guess it goes to show that we now expect out forecast models to be nearly perfect even five days out.
I just don't think its particularly helpful to label anything thats wrong as being a bust, particularly that far out.
Not sure anyone really ever really predicted a direct hit with certainty, but in going out to sea, this system went from something extraordinary to something fairly ordinary.
I'm going to pretend that "frontal passage" means something entirely different and good.
Just watched a News12 report from down the end of my street. Yes, it's as ugly as they made it look.
The NHC was actually pretty good at explaining the uncertainty and the couple of news broadcasts (plus second hand vis a vis the types of questions I got asked by friends/relatives) seems like the media, at least the responsible not just trying to drum up page views media, were good at explaining it too.
It should be interesting to see a postmortem of what the Euro model saw before everyone else and why.
Speaking of Zombies. The last Zombie Walk in Asbury scheduled for tomorrow has been postponed. Guess Zombies can't handle wind, rain, and flooding. Good to know just in case......
The MILF's at the Hillsborough Deli were all giddy when talk of frontal passages, busts and direct hits.
Many people around here think a forecast of 3-6" of snow is a bust if 75% of the area gets 3-6", but 25% of the area gets 2". Tough graders out there - or, more accurately, people with no clue how difficult weather forecasting is and how much better it's gotten over the past 25 years, despite the occasional busts.
For this storm, we can certainly say the Euro blew away every other model, but that even the other models eventually caught on at least 3 days before there might have been a landfall.
By the way, pretty good article in today's Times on the superior performance of the European model and why: better computers, higher resolution model, and perhaps most importantly, better data initialization input.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/u...ast-european-model-leads-pack-again.html?_r=0
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=okx&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no (NY RADAR)
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dix&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no (PHILLY RADAR)
http://water.weather.gov/precip/ (you can parse by day or range of days)
This hurricane was a bust and so was 75% of last year's snow storms. A bust is based on media hype vs. what actually happens. If you want someone to blame, blame the media and their crazy desire to scare people for ratings.
This N'easter is doing significant damage, and perhaps more as it is only Saturday at 8:20, and my street has lost 6 or 7 trees that I saw from the
street coming back from Starbucks.
Power will probably go out this afternoon unless the wind die down and I'm in Summit where it seems insulated from the coast.
Thanks as always RU#'s...you posted about this last Sunday, I noticed. Many people come here just for your weather posts.
Please keep finding time to post them!
street coming back from Starbucks.
Power will probably go out this afternoon unless the wind die down and I'm in Summit where it seems insulated from the coast.
Thanks as always RU#'s...you posted about this last Sunday, I noticed. Many people come here just for your weather posts.
Please keep finding time to post them!
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
As someone from this drama-filled field, I marvel at how much better European computer models are at handling most situations. When it comes to scary tropical weather going back to Sandy, it is Europe 2, USA 0...the ECMWF handled Sandy PERFECTLY (it is in fact astounding how well it did...) and when it comes to Joaquin, I am almost certain that the ECMWF did not have a single model run swing (unlike the GFS, GFDL and HWRF models which had a storm hitting SC, NC, VA, NJ, NY and SE New England at various points. It is worth noting that the Canadian and Japanese models did not do well, though Japanese models are finely tuned for the PACIFIC Basin and Canadians hardly care about Tropical weather...
Interesting to note that Europeans dont much care for tropical weather, yet their model just handles these events (small sample size) better (it would seem). A friend of mine at the AF Weather Agency is a numerical model scientist and they were all sent to the HADLEY Center in Exeter to learn about how they do things...they are ditching their model and adopting a version of the Euro model...essentially, they cried uncle...as my friend put it, "they have better hardware, software and a superior physics package in their code...we're over a decade behind"
...sad
Interesting to note that Europeans dont much care for tropical weather, yet their model just handles these events (small sample size) better (it would seem). A friend of mine at the AF Weather Agency is a numerical model scientist and they were all sent to the HADLEY Center in Exeter to learn about how they do things...they are ditching their model and adopting a version of the Euro model...essentially, they cried uncle...as my friend put it, "they have better hardware, software and a superior physics package in their code...we're over a decade behind"
...sad
Any idea why that's the case? That would seem an easy thing to fix, unless it's because the other models would have to be rewritten to handle new data/increased volume of data/etc.
Power went out at my place for 10 last night for 3 hrs. Our lines are underground but every time we have a heavy rain power goes out. My neighbor had one of those generac generators installed a few years ago so I was able to use his outlet so at least my sump pump worked.
Interesting. I wonder if they're a decade behind because they were too lazy/obstinate to change, or because they went down a path which didn't pan out. The latter is understandable, the former, not so much. Regardless, there's no excuse for being behind in hardware, and if it has been 10 years, with the way hardware evolves (nowadays, usually 3 years outdates most equipment), they're way behind.
I can understand calling this storm a bust given your definition (even if I don't agree), but you know 75% of last year's snowstorms weren't busts, so why ruin your credibility with dumb statements like that. Join the adult conversation on this - I know you're smarter than that.
It's hardware, software (including better physical models) and data input and much of it is related to funding, as the ECMWF has been generously funded for decades, while the US government has had paltry funding for NOAA and the GFS model. Here's a link to a NatGeo article which provides a lot more details than the Times story.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/...ry-weather-science-technology-european-model/
WPKnight - the Euro never showed an east coast landfall...
And last year we experienced the biggest bust of all time. If I remember correctly, it took you a few days to come out of hiding. Good times! :)
The deterministic ECMWF never showed an east coast landfall, but if I remember correctly (because it's been a whole 3 days, right?) some of the ensemble members did.
Also, the GFS is being a little unnecessarily vilified here, I think. The operational GFS has been showing a more or less "correct" track for Joaquin for 48 hours, now.
What's really confusing the issue, I believe, is NHC's incorporation of verifiably inaccurate models to produce their "official guidance' - which I shall now and forever refer to as the "Cone of Shame" (TM). Had they simply thrown out the Canadian and Ukie and SHIPS and all that other crap, their "official guidance" would have much more accurately reflected what we now recognize as reality.
