OT: Tropical Storm Joaquin Forms - Close Call for NE US on Sat/Sun...

[T2Kplus10]

Keep this up and you'll earn yourself another ban, longer than the last time.

So Numbers can poke fun at me and I can't reply? Got it, thanks.
And by the way, he doesn't mind such back and forth comments and neither do I.

 

[RULoyal]

The deterministic ECMWF never showed an east coast landfall, but if I remember correctly (because it's been a whole 3 days, right?) some of the ensemble members did.

Also, the GFS is being a little unnecessarily vilified here, I think. The operational GFS has been showing a more or less "correct" track for Joaquin for 48 hours, now.

What's really confusing the issue, I believe, is NHC's incorporation of verifiably inaccurate models to produce their "official guidance' - which I shall now and forever refer to as the "Cone of Shame" (TM). Had they simply thrown out the Canadian and Ukie and SHIPS and all that other crap, their "official guidance" would have much more accurately reflected what we now recognize as reality.

It's like doctors now feeling compelled to inform you of every possible horrible outcome of a procedure no matter how small the possibility.

 

[DJ Spanky]

What's really confusing the issue, I believe, is NHC's incorporation of verifiably inaccurate models to produce their "official guidance' - which I shall now and forever refer to as the "Cone of Shame" (TM). Had they simply thrown out the Canadian and Ukie and SHIPS and all that other crap, their "official guidance" would have much more accurately reflected what we now recognize as reality.

It's like doctors now feeling compelled to inform you of every possible horrible outcome of a procedure no matter how small the possibility.

Yep. And it was really made worse by "averaging" the outcomes. The two likely outcomes were heading out to sea, and slamming into the Carolinas/Virginia. Average that and you have it coming north and slamming into the NJ/NYC/LI area, which was not a probably outcome.

 

[nyctarheel23]

The winds have subsided, but my dog won't go for a walk--so I guess there is more to come this afternoon?

 

[BeKnighted]

Joaquin is safely out to sea from our perspective, but the latest NHC projection shows it heading towards London, and still possibly at tropical storm wind levels when it gets there. (A Bahamas-Bermuda-England trifecta, in other words.) Can the serious weather people comment on this? It seems like this storm is having a very long life, too.

 

[RU4Real]

The intensity forecast for 120 hours calls for the storm to have undergone post-tropical transition with maximum sustained winds of 40mph.

40 mph winds in the Southern Approaches and the English Channel is what they call "a lovely day".

 

[BeKnighted]

The intensity forecast for 120 hours calls for the storm to have undergone post-tropical transition with maximum sustained winds of 40mph.

40 mph winds in the Southern Approaches and the English Channel is what they call "a lovely day".

LOL. Not so much in London, though.

 

[RU4Real]

LOL. Not so much in London, though.

I'd be surprised if London got sustained 40 mph winds. For one thing, they'll wind up on the wrong side of the storm for that, if it tracks to the models. Given the alignment, the big concern would be flooding up the Thames, but they have that amazing flood gate system in place that's proven to be very effective.

Now, if you want to track things getting shitty as this storm rolls into Europe, find yourself some web cams along the coast of the Bay of Biscay. I wouldn't be surprised to see the offshore waves building in excess of 40'.

 

[mildone]

It's going to start it's loop to the south where it will pick up energy, then turn west timed perfectly to hit us at 8:00pm Saturday. Cat 5. Mark my words. This has been my story all along and I'm sticking to it.