OT: Winter Storm Likely to Impact Our Area 1/16-17

Status
Not open for further replies.

bac2therac

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 30, 2001
187,090
101,200
113
53
Belle Mead NJ
Claire, Colleen and Wendy - more affectionately known as the Hillsborough Milfs - love the weather threads. Because of the lack of snow, they only ordered a 3 foot hero instead of their customary 6 foot hero - to watch the football games today. Claire was wearing a Tom Brady jersey and Colleen was wearing a Jimmy Garapolo Jersey when they picked up the order.

But can we talk about Claire's hamster???
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
55,192
32,215
113
Metuchen, NJ
  • Like
Reactions: BigEastPhil

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
55,192
32,215
113
Metuchen, NJ
In the winter, there is always a storm "possible" within a 7 day period. Let's be patient and wait for @Tango Two or @bac2therac to post at the right time.
You're absolutely wrong on this, but that's not unusual. Throughout December there were generally no possible snowstorms within 7 days and even 10+ days, as the pattern simply didn't support snow. That's why there were no threads here or even a mention of snow in other threads here or even any event threads on the weather boards.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 2, 2007
19,356
9,709
113
You're absolutely wrong on this, but that's not unusual. Throughout December there were generally no possible snowstorms within 7 days and even 10+ days, as the pattern simply didn't support snow. That's why there were no threads here or even a mention of snow in other threads here or even any event threads on the weather boards.
Most of Dec isn't winter. D'uh.
 

Knight Shift

Legend
May 19, 2011
65,973
59,564
113
Jersey Shore

T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 2, 2007
19,356
9,709
113

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
55,192
32,215
113
Metuchen, NJ

CranfordKnight

All Conference
Gold Member
Jun 23, 2006
3,582
2,872
113
Going to the Knicks game tomorrow. The plan is to drive to Journal Square and take the PATH in. What are we looking at? Just rain by 11 am? We have the option of taking NJT train if driving is going to be sketchy.
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
55,192
32,215
113
Metuchen, NJ
Going to the Knicks game tomorrow. The plan is to drive to Journal Square and take the PATH in. What are we looking at? Just rain by 11 am? We have the option of taking NJT train if driving is going to be sketchy.
Just rain after 9-10 pm tonight - driving should be no issue after 10 pm or so in the 95 corridor with heavy rain from then through just before sunrise (maybe some urban flooding in spots to avoid) and tomorrow should be no issue at all other than it being windy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CranfordKnight

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
55,192
32,215
113
Metuchen, NJ
The coastal flood watches were converted to warnings for tonight and tomorrow morning for Monmouth and Middlesex in the NWS-Philly area, for 1-2' above normally dry ground, and for Queens/LI/CT in the NWS-NYC area for 2-3' above normally dry ground. Only advisories for south of Monmouth and the rest of NYC/NENJ for lesser minor flooding being possible.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=coastal flood warning

And there's now a high wind warning for eastern LI for gusts up to 60 mph and an advisory for the rest of LI/NYC/NENJ and coastal NJ for gusts up to 50 mph, in general. Could be scattered power outages.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=wind advisory
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
55,192
32,215
113
Metuchen, NJ
No surprise that the NWS cut snowfall amounts again, given what the models are showing. The 1" line now essentially runs up 95 and the 3" or more amounts are generally confined to being north of I-80. Likely a fair amount of sleet in locations N of 78 and especially N of 80, and sleet is no picnic either (same mass as snow, just less depth). Hopefully we can avoid much freezing rain as that shit's just nasty, but up to 0.1" is forecast during the transition in the counties with advisories just NW of 95. All the other impacts are still expected, i.e., high winds, coastal flooding, heavy rain/urban flooding. Nice win today by RU...

6rsF2Q3.png


0k3YY8n.png



bCtaMRR.png

No big forecast changes with the NWS final forecasts before the start of the event (light snow is already into DE and SEPA near Philly), other than they upped the snow/sleet forecasts for areas well N/W, as they think the cold air will hold on a bit longer, so areas like the Poconos, Sussex, W. Passaic and Orange counties are in the 4-6" range, while other areas N of 80 and Warren/Lehigh Valley, N of 78, are forecast to get 3-4". Snow/sleet forecasts SE of there diminsh quickly to maybe 1/2" to 1" along the 95 corridor before the heavy rains (1" or more) come in to wash the snow away.

Note that for anyone getting 4-6" of snow/sleet might not get enough rain to wash the snow away, as ~0.5" of rain on top of that will largely be absorbed into the frozen precip and that slush will freeze solid Monday evening. So folks in that area might still need to shovel. Also included the regional snowfall map, showing the 8-12" or more amounts for much of WV, western VA/MD and central/western PA/NY and northern NY/New England. People who hate snow in the 95 corridor and nearby definitely dodged a bullet with this storm.

And, of course, there are all the heavy rain/urban flooding, high winds/power outages, and coastal flooding/beach erosion risks I mentioned in the posts just above.


oCcKnjO.png


kcDdmYI.png


RBTNNkV.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: RUPete

RUScrew85

Hall of Famer
Nov 7, 2003
26,623
13,289
113
Going to the Knicks game tomorrow. The plan is to drive to Journal Square and take the PATH in. What are we looking at? Just rain by 11 am? We have the option of taking NJT train if driving is going to be sketchy.

Prize for First Place: Two Tickets to the Knicks!

Prize for Second: Four Tickets to the Knicks!

HA!
 
Last edited:
  • Haha
Reactions: Postman_1

RUScrew85

Hall of Famer
Nov 7, 2003
26,623
13,289
113
It would be funny to watch this forecast bust to the upside - like CNJ gets 10 inches.

This place would be hysterical.

Is there a word for Upside bust? Meaning it snows way worse than forecast?
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
55,192
32,215
113
Metuchen, NJ
Light snow has commenced. I'm going with a prediction of 1", as the storm overperforms hugely for Metuchen vs. the 1/2" predicted. That's sarcasm folks. Already well above 32F at the coast and we probably have 2, maybe 3 hours of frozen precip for the 95 corridor.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 2, 2007
19,356
9,709
113
Light snow has commenced. I'm going with a prediction of 1", as the storm overperforms hugely for Metuchen vs. the 1/2" predicted. That's sarcasm folks. Already well above 32F at the coast and we probably have 2, maybe 3 hours of frozen precip for the 95 corridor.
So desperate for any of the white stuff. I think it is going to be 45 degrees overnight. LOL!
 
  • Like
Reactions: RULoyal

RUPete

Hall of Famer
Feb 5, 2003
21,225
9,030
113
It would be funny to watch this forecast bust to the upside - like CNJ gets 10 inches.

This place would be hysterical.

Is there a word for Upside bust? Meaning it snows way worse than forecast?
I was thinking the same thing earlier. I went out to walk the dog before it got crappy and the atmosphere felt very snow friendly.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: RUScrew85

RUinPinehurst

All American
Gold Member
Aug 27, 2011
7,005
6,358
113
21" so far, above Boone NC. Still coming down at a good clip. Winds have died down, thankfully. Cleared the porch steps (twice) and porch and firewood caddy. Tomorrow am starts the big dig... clearing the driveways, extracting the vehicles, etc. Hoping it's ended by 8 am. Ready for blue skies and sunshine.
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
55,192
32,215
113
Metuchen, NJ
21" so far, above Boone NC. Still coming down at a good clip. Winds have died down, thankfully. Cleared the porch steps (twice) and porch and firewood caddy. Tomorrow am starts the big dig... clearing the driveways, extracting the vehicles, etc. Hoping it's ended by 8 am. Ready for blue skies and sunshine.
I'll be right there, lol. My niece's twin boys (4) in Charlotte are having an absolute blast in their first real snow/sleet (they got a couple of inches of snow/sleet mix with a bit of freezing rain).
 

RUScrew85

Hall of Famer
Nov 7, 2003
26,623
13,289
113
21" so far, above Boone NC. Still coming down at a good clip. Winds have died down, thankfully. Cleared the porch steps (twice) and porch and firewood caddy. Tomorrow am starts the big dig... clearing the driveways, extracting the vehicles, etc. Hoping it's ended by 8 am. Ready for blue skies and sunshine.

Good luck brother.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RUinPinehurst

RUPete

Hall of Famer
Feb 5, 2003
21,225
9,030
113
Yeah, just started in NP and the ground is getting coated. Still pretty cold but things will change.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NickRU714

Postman_1

All Conference
Gold Member
Mar 12, 2017
3,336
5,441
113
Mood flakes..might go for a Jebwalk soon
Same here in Hamilton. Cars, sidewalks and streets now covered. Was hoping for a snow day tomorrow but not happening. Rain coming soon. They are already talking about the next potential storm next weekend on AmericanWx.
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
55,192
32,215
113
Metuchen, NJ
Light snow has commenced. I'm going with a prediction of 1", as the storm overperforms hugely for Metuchen vs. the 1/2" predicted. That's sarcasm folks. Already well above 32F at the coast and we probably have 2, maybe 3 hours of frozen precip for the 95 corridor.
As of 7 pm, we have a whole 1/4" of snow and intensity has increased to moderate - may get the 1" of snow before the changeover, as it's still 28F and above freezing temps and sleet still look to be 20 miles SE of me. Will be gone soon, but it's still pretty and nice to go for a walk in...
 
Sep 15, 2018
1,144
1,468
113
Light snow in W Mon from 6:00 - 6:30. Light dusting on all surfaces. All sleet by 6:45 and from 7:00 to now a very light drizzle. Temp 30, so the air aloft is warmer.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RUPete

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
55,192
32,215
113
Metuchen, NJ
As of 7 pm, we have a whole 1/4" of snow and intensity has increased to moderate - may get the 1" of snow before the changeover, as it's still 28F and above freezing temps and sleet still look to be 20 miles SE of me. Will be gone soon, but it's still pretty and nice to go for a walk in...
Up to 3/8" at 7:30 pm, but up to 29F with cc-radar showing the mix line about 20 miles from me, but moving slowly - I know it's a bit silly, but fascinating to see if we can eke out an inch before the deluge. Kids today were playing ice hockey on the pond across the street until some busybodies called the cops on them - looked like a fun time to me.
 

RUinPinehurst

All American
Gold Member
Aug 27, 2011
7,005
6,358
113
I'll be right there, lol. My niece's twin boys (4) in Charlotte are having an absolute blast in their first real snow/sleet (they got a couple of inches of snow/sleet mix with a bit of freezing rain).
Hah! One of my old RU roomies is visiting Charlotte this weekend for his first grandchild's first birthday. Got an alert via group text with the old gang, an ongoing chat. Anyway, he and his wife flew in from sunny warm San Diego. Talk about a weather contrast. They're still having a blast, nonetheless. Heading back on Tuesday, so they hope.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU848789

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
55,192
32,215
113
Metuchen, NJ
Up to 3/8" at 7:30 pm, but up to 29F with cc-radar showing the mix line about 20 miles from me, but moving slowly - I know it's a bit silly, but fascinating to see if we can eke out an inch before the deluge. Kids today were playing ice hockey on the pond across the street until some busybodies called the cops on them - looked like a fun time to me.
We have 1/2" as of 8:00 pm with continuing light to moderate snow, but it's now 31F and the radar shows the mix line almost at the Raritan, about 5-10 miles from me, so maybe another 30-60 minutes of snow? Very slick out there, as all surfaces are covered, given how cold the ground was. I imagine there could be some accidents out there if people weren't expecting any snow at all.
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
55,192
32,215
113
Metuchen, NJ
Hah! One of my old RU roomies is visiting Charlotte this weekend for his first grandchild's first birthday. Got an alert via group text with the old gang, an ongoing chat. Anyway, he and his wife flew in from sunny warm San Diego. Talk about a weather contrast. They're still having a blast, nonetheless. Heading back on Tuesday, so they hope.
My sister and her SO flew in to Charlotte for her grandsons' 4th birthday this weekend and they were supposed to fly back to FL today, but that was cancelled, which they're happy about as they get to spend more time with her daughter's family.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RUinPinehurst

chickenpatty2

Senior
Mar 21, 2013
1,376
1,611
113
Hah! One of my old RU roomies is visiting Charlotte this weekend for his first grandchild's first birthday. Got an alert via group text with the old gang, an ongoing chat. Anyway, he and his wife flew in from sunny warm San Diego. Talk about a weather contrast. They're still having a blast, nonetheless. Heading back on Tuesday, so they hope.
I have a buddy that moved to Charlotte this summer. When I texted him around 2pm today, he said the city was basically shut down, outer highways not plowed. Yet he's out in his Prius, driving around no problem. Jersey, baby!
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
55,192
32,215
113
Metuchen, NJ
Reports of about 1/2" to an inch or so in SNJ/SEPA near the Delaware, including a guy on AmericanWx reporting 1.5" in NW Philly, where it's changing to sleet now and it already changed to sleet/rain on the Jersey side.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.