OT: Winter Storm Likely to Impact Our Area 1/16-17
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The heat is coming - already in the 40s at the coast and will be above 32F here soon, but still well below 32F only 10-20 miles NW of 95 and in the low 20s well N/W. Battlefield is set, especially as heavier precip is already N of 276/195, so if some of those areas to the NW hold on to snow for another 2-4 hours they could easily get 3-5" vs. the 1-3" forecast.
Two nights in a row with single digits and daytime highs in the 20s should be enough to get thick enough ice, plus the pond depth is maybe 5-6 feet. I walked across the part of the pond they were playing on earlier and it looked pretty solid, but I don't know if anyone formally checked.
As of 8:45 pm, we have 3/4" of snow and it's 31F and it just changed to a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain a few minutes ago, but as I was typing this post, it changed back to the heaviest snow I've seen so far. No idea if it's just a few more minutes of this or not, but it's pretty wild out there, as it's also getting windy.
That snow only lasted a few minutes. It's now up to 32F and mostly rain with a few flakes. Calling it at 3/4" of snow, bringing me to 6.75" for the season. Interested to see the rain/snow/sleet battle to our NW through the night. For most of us, the Cult song says it all - here comes the rain.
Yes!!!!! A huge risk!!!!! If they weren't wearing N95's and social distancing, they're at high risk of COVID!!!!! 🤣🤣🤣
I picked up the better half around 7:30 - probably an inch down at that point, but it was sticking to the roadways pretty good already. Very surprised that the roads hadn't been treated, they were quite slick in some areas. I'd say probably 2-3 inches down now, will measure tomorrow.
Storm definitely overperformed, so far, with an inch or so along 95 and 2-3" just NW of 95 up to 78 and 3-4" N of 78, where it just recently changed over. Right now it's still below 32F and snowing pretty heavily N or 80 and W of 287, where some will likely get to 4-8" (with some spots in Sussex/Poconos/Hudson Valley already reporting 5-6"). And very heavy rain falling elsewhere, with winds really picking up - a 62 mph gust was just reported in Seaside. It's looking like the NWS Friday afternoon forecast for a bit more snow would've been better.
There won't be anything to measure tomorrow if you're still in Wayne - should've already changed to rain there, according to the radar...
Down in Atlanta this weekend. While there wasn’t anything sticking on the roads, there was at least an inch of it on the turf. Almost all age groups from NJ that went down won yesterday’s games, including the 8 year old team that upset Texas. Son’s team shutout South Carolina 14-🍩
Didn't lose it here. Highest gusts measured in Sea Girt were 50 from 1 to 2am. Calmed for a while but has picked up again. Predicting may hit 45mph later.
We had about 3” in Bergen around 10:30 PM last night. Crazy wind and rain overnight. Looks like a slushy mess out there. Hopefully no ice.
High Tide has come without much more flooding than a strong Lunar Tide. Got up at 5am for nothing
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Good to see no snow on the ground this morning. Was all slush when I took the dog out last night - didn’t want to see that freeze up later.
Snowfall reports showing how the storm overperformed a bit vs. the last forecast or two before the storm. I'd also say that the models did a pretty good job even in the 5-day window, as my initial post said a wetter solution was favored over a whiter one for the 95 corridor, but that N/W would be likely to get more significant snow. Not quite the big snowstorm that was possible, though. Note that the NJ reports for Bergen down to Union are in the 2nd set of reports from the NWS-NYC, below. And now we look ahead to Thursday, then Saturday, then Monday...
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
948 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022
...SNOWFALL REPORTS...
Location Amount Time/Date Provider
...New Jersey...
...Burlington County...
Delran 0.7 in 0700 PM 01/16 Public
1 WNW South Jersey Regional 0.4 in 0730 PM 01/16 NWS Employee
2 NNW South Jersey Regional 0.4 in 0740 PM 01/16 CO-OP Observer
Mount Holly WFO 0.2 in 0700 PM 01/16 Official NWS Obs
South Jersey Regional Airpor 0.0 in 0954 PM 01/16 ASOS
...Camden County...
Bellmawr 0.4 in 0730 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
...Gloucester County...
Thorofare 0.8 in 0730 PM 01/16 Public
Sewell 0.3 in 0645 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
...Hunterdon County...
Annandale 5.0 in 1100 PM 01/16 Public
Lebanon 3.1 in 1030 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Stanton 2.4 in 1015 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Flemington 2.1 in 0950 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
...Mercer County...
Hopewell 2.3 in 0910 PM 01/16 Public
1 NE Hamilton Square 0.5 in 0800 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Ewing 0.5 in 0845 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
...Middlesex County...
Hopelawn 1.0 in 0900 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
North Brunswick 0.8 in 0845 PM 01/16 Public
...Morris County...
Lake Hopatcong 4.8 in 0430 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter
Butler 4.3 in 0100 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter
Budd Lake 3.6 in 1230 AM 01/17 Public
2 NNE Brookside 3.5 in 1219 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter
Montville 3.5 in 1230 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter
Succasunna 3.4 in 1130 PM 01/16 Public
Randolph 3.2 in 1130 PM 01/16 Cocorahs
2 ESE Morris Plains 3.0 in 1033 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Boonton 2.9 in 1125 PM 01/16 Broadcast Media
Chatham 2.3 in 1035 PM 01/16 Public
Randolph 2.3 in 1100 PM 01/16 Public
Denville 2.2 in 0500 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter
...Salem County...
Pennsville 1.0 in 0815 PM 01/16 Fire Dept/Rescue
...Somerset County...
3 N Bridgewater 2.4 in 1000 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Warren 2.3 in 1030 PM 01/16 Public
2 N Bridgewater 2.2 in 1045 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Bridgewater 2.0 in 1015 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Middlebush 0.5 in 0935 PM 01/16 Public
...Sussex County...
Wantage Twp 7.0 in 0700 AM 01/17 Public
4 WSW Wantage Twp 5.7 in 0615 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter
3 W Vernon Valley 5.5 in 0120 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter
...Warren County...
Hackettstown 3.8 in 1125 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Oxford 3.3 in 1030 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Blairstown 2.5 in 1045 PM 01/16 Public
...Pennsylvania...
...Berks County...
Huffs Church 3.5 in 0945 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Mertztown 3.5 in 1000 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Bern Twp 3.5 in 1010 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Spring Twp 3.4 in 0945 PM 01/16 Public
Shillington 3.3 in 1000 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Wernersville 3.3 in 1015 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
1 WNW Sinking Spring 3.0 in 0945 PM 01/16 Public
Wyomissing 3.0 in 0945 PM 01/16 Public
Douglassville 2.5 in 0930 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
...Bucks County...
2 NE Springtown 4.0 in 1015 PM 01/16 CO-OP Observer
Chalfont 2.7 in 0915 PM 01/16 Public
Doylestown 2.5 in 0920 PM 01/16 Public
Buckingham Twp 2.3 in 0945 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Furlong 2.2 in 0925 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Hilltown Twp 2.0 in 0900 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Trumbauersville 2.0 in 0940 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
2 NW New Britain 1.9 in 0900 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Warminster 1.5 in 0830 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Jamison 1.5 in 0900 PM 01/16 Public
Doylestown Airport 0.0 in 0954 PM 01/16 ASOS
...Carbon County...
Lehighton 5.2 in 0105 AM 01/17 Public
Lower Towamensing Twp 3.5 in 1115 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
...Chester County...
Elverson 2.9 in 1000 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Malvern 2.6 in 0829 PM 01/16 Public
East Coventry Twp 2.6 in 0850 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
West Caln Twp 2.6 in 0950 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Spring City 2.5 in 0850 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Phoenixville 2.3 in 0855 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
East Nantmeal Twp 2.3 in 0900 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
2 NW Wayne 2.0 in 0830 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
2 W Phoenixville 2.0 in 0840 PM 01/16 Public
Glenmoore 2.0 in 1057 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Downington 1.9 in 0759 PM 01/16 Public
1 W Avondale 1.8 in 0750 PM 01/16 Public
Paoli 1.8 in 0810 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
...Delaware County...
Chadds Ford Twp 2.2 in 0730 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Folsom 2.0 in 0725 PM 01/16 Public
Broomall 2.0 in 0800 PM 01/16 Public
Aston Twp. 1.8 in 0730 PM 01/16 Public
Thornton 1.8 in 0800 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Morton 1.2 in 0730 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Boothwyn 1.0 in 0640 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
...Lehigh County...
Germansville 4.3 in 1115 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Coopersburg 4.0 in 1010 PM 01/16 Public
1 SE North Whitehall Twp 4.0 in 0733 AM 01/17 Broadcast Media
Whitehall Twp 3.8 in 1038 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Breinigsville 3.7 in 0737 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter
Center Valley 3.5 in 1000 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Lehigh Valley International 3.5 in 0700 AM 01/17 ASOS
Washington Twp 3.5 in 0700 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter
1 W Northampton 3.3 in 1030 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Emmaus 3.2 in 1026 PM 01/16 Public
Coplay 3.2 in 1030 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Salisbury Twp 3.1 in 1045 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Upper Macungie Twp. 3.1 in 1100 PM 01/16 Public
1 SE North Whitehall Twp 2.9 in 0945 PM 01/16 Cocorahs
Zionsville 2.9 in 1135 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
...Monroe County...
Coolbaugh Twp 9.5 in 0745 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter
Pocono Pines 7.7 in 0723 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter
Mount Pocono 7.7 in 0908 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter
Jonas 6.4 in 0330 AM 01/17 Public
2 NNE Arlington Heights 4.2 in 1200 AM 01/17 CO-OP Observer
Saylorsburg 3.5 in 1125 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
...Montgomery County...
Norristown 3.1 in 0825 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
East Norriton 2.5 in 0830 PM 01/16 Public
1 NNW Franconia Twp 2.0 in 0900 PM 01/16 Public
2 S Horsham Twp 1.8 in 0830 PM 01/16 Public
Lansdale 1.8 in 0835 PM 01/16 Public
Eagleville 1.6 in 0815 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
1 NNE Willow Grove 1.6 in 0830 PM 01/16 Public
...Northampton County...
Forks Twp 4.5 in 1130 PM 01/16 Public
Danielsville 4.3 in 1237 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter
Bethlehem 4.0 in 1100 AM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Danielsville 3.8 in 1100 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
1 NE Palmer Heights 3.7 in 1115 PM 01/16 Public
Bushkill Twp 2.7 in 1045 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Lower Mount Bethel Twp 2.4 in 1000 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Pen Argyl 2.0 in 0230 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter
...Philadelphia County...
Fox Chase 1.5 in 0810 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter
Roxborough 1.0 in 0800 PM 01/16 Broadcast Media
Philadelphia International A 0.7 in 0700 PM 01/16 ASOS
Philadelphia 0.5 in 0715 PM 01/16 Broadcast Media
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
735 AM EST MON JAN 17 2022
...SNOWFALL REPORTS...
LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER
...NEW JERSEY...
...BERGEN COUNTY...
FRANKLIN LAKES 4.6 IN 1230 AM 01/17 TRAINED SPOTTER
MAHWAH 4.1 IN 1200 AM 01/17 PUBLIC
WESTWOOD 2.2 IN 1140 PM 01/16 TRAINED SPOTTER
RIDGEWOOD 1.4 IN 1035 PM 01/16 PUBLIC
EAST RUTHERFORD 1.4 IN 1050 PM 01/16 TRAINED SPOTTER
...ESSEX COUNTY...
LIVINGSTON 2.5 IN 1100 PM 01/16 PUBLIC
WEST ORANGE 2.0 IN 1030 PM 01/16 PUBLIC
NEWARK AIRPORT 1.0 IN 0100 AM 01/17 OFFICIAL NWS OBS
...HUDSON COUNTY...
HARRISON 1.0 IN 1005 PM 01/16 CO-OP OBSERVER
JERSEY CITY 0.6 IN 0900 PM 01/16 PUBLIC
...PASSAIC COUNTY...
HAWTHORNE 1.4 IN 0700 AM 01/17 COCORAHS
...UNION COUNTY...
CRANFORD 1.4 IN 1100 PM 01/16 TRAINED SPOTTER
...NEW YORK...
...KINGS COUNTY...
1 SSW FLATBUSH 0.3 IN 1003 PM 01/16 PUBLIC
...NASSAU COUNTY...
MANHASSET HILLS 0.5 IN 0845 PM 01/16 COCORAHS
PLAINVIEW 0.2 IN 0830 PM 01/16 PUBLIC
...NEW YORK COUNTY...
CENTRAL PARK 0.8 IN 0100 AM 01/17 OFFICIAL NWS OBS
...ORANGE COUNTY...
PORT JERVIS 8.4 IN 0630 AM 01/17 COCORAHS
MIDDLETOWN 6.2 IN 0145 AM 01/17 FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
MONROE 5.8 IN 0230 AM 01/17 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W GARDNERTOWN 4.2 IN 0145 AM 01/17 PUBLIC
...QUEENS COUNTY...
WHITESTONE 1.1 IN 0920 PM 01/16 PUBLIC
NYC/LA GUARDIA 0.4 IN 0100 AM 01/17 PUBLIC
LITTLE NECK 0.3 IN 0600 AM 01/17 TRAINED SPOTTER
LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE 0.3 IN 0700 AM 01/17 COCORAHS
NYC/JFK 0.1 IN 0100 AM 01/17 OFFICIAL NWS OBS
...RICHMOND COUNTY...
WESTERLEIGH 0.5 IN 0830 PM 01/16 PUBLIC
...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
1 SW BUCHANAN 5.0 IN 0454 AM 01/17 PUBLIC
PEEKSKILL 4.5 IN 0145 AM 01/17 PUBLIC
3 NNW GOLDENS BRIDGE 4.5 IN 0400 AM 01/17 PUBLIC
CROTON-ON-HUDSON 2.0 IN 1045 PM 01/16 PUBLIC
NEW ROCHELLE 0.7 IN 1000 PM 01/16 PUBLIC
Posted this in the pattern thread, but since some were discussing the future here, also, figured I'd post it here too...
Well the pattern certainly delivered a big eastern snowstorm for many, from the Plains to MS/AL and all the way up the Apps and interior PA/NY/New England, but obviously not for the 95 corridor, which was a near miss, as 1" won't move the needle much, although even just 20+ miles NW did get 2-3", which is respectable for a start.
And the pattern is still loaded with potential for the next 10 days at least. First, we have a clipper type system diving down from western Canada Weds/Thurs, which some of today's 12Z models show giving us 1-2/3-4" of snow, while other show the snow basically staying to our north. That's a fairly minor event.
Then we have the big question for this weekend, where right now the Euro is a monster snowstorm for NC to ME, including our whole area, while the GFS shows two weaker systems on Sat and Mon, neither of which has much impact here, as they stay mostly to our SE. The UK is somewhat like the GFS with a miss to our SE on Saturday, while the CMC shows a moderate hit for DC to LBI, but not much NW of there, so it's close.
Dr. Knabb on TWC did a great job comparing and contrasting the GFS and Euro for the weekend storm, showing how both models show the stalled front running down the east coast from Boston to the GOM after the Thursday small storm, but how the GFS shows two troughs, one in the Great Lakes (northern stream) and one in Texas (southern stream) remain separate as they head into the east as two weaker storms, while the Euro shows them phasing into one large, powerful system that heads up the stalled boundary into the NE US and crushes us. I know some still dismiss TWC, but I think they've gotten way better the past few years with their "expert" analysis.
There are other threats for next Monday and Wednesday, but those are too far off to discuss, especially given we're going to need to see what happens through this weekend first. If we see better consensus tonight for at least a 1-2" event on early Thursday, it'll be time for a thread, IMO, and if we see at least 3 of the 4 global models showing a significant threat for Saturday by tonight or tomorrow (tomorrow is only 4 days out), then a thread would make sense for that one, as I need to stay in the good graces of @e5fdny. 😉
And also, just for @WhiteBus it's going to continue generally being colder than normal, with some very cold outbreaks Thursday/Friday (temps nearing single digits Fri am) and probably next Weds-Fri, with temps possibly being 15-20F below normal.
That’s all well and good, but when is our next “torch” pattern going to be? I like those better.
Given the temperatures we had in place before the storm Numbers….I have to believe us non- snow lovers dodged an enormous bullet?
Interesting, my NWS 10 day shows nothing over the weekend
So you are now trolling me on two different threads!!
So what. Still don't know why you think this pattern is so thread worthy?? It's January! It's supposed to be cold. None of this pattern is historic. We get a cold day and then 24 hours later hit 50 degrees. It's going to be near 50 again Wednesday. This is nothing out of the ordinary for January. It's below average. It's the reverse of December yet you didn't write an 8000 word post about December. What a drama queen. And you can never complain about trolls again. As you have jumped into the deep end yourself.
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