Some snow, a little freezing rain, then warmer with lots of rain 2/15-2/16

[RU848789]

Thought people might be interested. After a few mild days, we could reach record highs into the 60s this Wednesday as a "Lakes Cutter" storm goes well to our NW, bringing in warm air from the SW. Then the pattern changes with a cold front coming through and cross polar flow sets up (otherwise known as a polar vortex), leading to a pattern featuring a west coast ridge and a long wave trough over most of the east, making the next 1-2 weeks likely to be colder than normal, with several chances for precip, which means chances for snow (or mixed precip/rain, depending on timing).

Impossible to predict storms and outcomes this far out, but the pattern will be favorable for cold/snow. First chance for wintry weather is next Friday, although models currently show this system likely missing to our SE (but it's too close to rule out this far away). Here's what the NWS had to say...

.CLIMATE...
BEFORE A WEEK OR TWO OF CROSS POLAR FLOW SENDS BELOW NORMAL COLD
INTO THE NORTHEAST (SEE GEFS LOOPS THROUGH 360 HOURS-QUITE AN
IMPRESSIVE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE, POSITIVE PNA AND -EPO),
WE WILL FIRST NEED TO DEAL WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 3RD.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[RUScrew85]

Is a polar vortex the same as an Alberta Clipper? If so, why did we change the name?

 

[LadyRU09]

A polar vortex is the stream of cold air surrounding the poles, a clipper is a snow storm.

 

[Kbee3]

Well, could we keep the cheerleading for big snowfall to a minimum this time ?

 

[vm7118]

Well, could we keep the cheerleading for big snowfall to a minimum this time ?

no thanks

 

[RU848789]

Well, could we keep the cheerleading for big snowfall to a minimum this time ?

I'll try to keep it to this level...

 

[bac2therac]

Breaking news...there is a chance of cold and snow in February...who knew?

 

[T2Kplus10]

Breaking news...there is a chance of cold and snow in February...who knew?

[roll]

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

Weather drama queen threads...whatever would this forum be without them!?

One thing to really cheer about: higher sun angles!!!

...ahhhh they off season...

 

[RU848789]

Breaking news...there is a chance of cold and snow in February...who knew?

[roll]

Like the swallows returning to Capistrano, the curmudgeon and the troll weigh in on a weather thread in their usual fashion.

bac - maybe you need a break from the board - so much negativity (not limited to weather threads) can't be good for you.

T - how'd your ridiculous 4-6" snowfall prediction and general downplaying of what turned out to be an historic event work out for you? I assumed you'd be too embarrassed to ever post in a weather thread again. Here's my favorite post of yours from before the storm...

Weather.com still only showing 4-6 inches for central NJ. Add to that, 40+ degree weather on Sun thru Thurs, whatever falls will be gone very quickly and roads will be clear within several hours.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...eekend-01-22-01-24.66892/page-10#post-1366397

 

[RU848789]

Is a polar vortex the same as an Alberta Clipper? If so, why did we change the name?

Not the same, but they're usually related. The polar vortex is simply when very cold air from the Arctic is displaced southward into the mid-latitudes, via cyclonic flow (counterclockwise); when this impacts our area, the polar vortex is typically situated in eastern Canada. Sometimes, Alberta Clippers, which are upper level lows that originate in Alberta, form and ride along the SW side of the polar vortex and drop usually light amounts (a few inches) of snow in the Great Lakes and northeast. Occasionally, these storms hit the Atlantic and blow up into larger storms (several inches or even more). This link does a nice job of explaining the connection.

http://www.decodedscience.org/alberta-clipper-cold-snow-from-canada/42016

 

[T2Kplus10]

Like the swallows returning to Capistrano, the curmudgeon and the troll weigh in on a weather thread in their usual fashion.

bac - maybe you need a break from the board - so much negativity (not limited to weather threads) can't be good for you.

T - how'd your ridiculous 4-6" snowfall prediction and general downplaying of what turned out to be an historic event work out for you? I assumed you'd be too embarrassed to ever post in a weather thread again. Here's my favorite post of yours from before the storm...



https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...eekend-01-22-01-24.66892/page-10#post-1366397

I posted a thread on all that last week. By the way, should we post your top quotes regarding the "Blizzard of 2015"? That one was a blast! :)

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

Calling RUFORREAL Calling RUFORREAL.

 

[RocktheRac]

Yes. I also heard there could be a snowstorm sometime in February. It's cold. I guess that's why it happens in the winter and not summer.

As far as Cantore....when he gets zapped by a lightning bolt lets see how fast those ambulances make it in that 3 ft of snow.

 

[e5fdny]

Weather drama queen threads...whatever would this forum be without them!?

One thing to really cheer about: higher sun angles!!!

...ahhhh they off season...

There is just something so....



about this post. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

 

[RUhasarrived]

I'm hoping for a return of the 1991 February,most likely the warmest in our history.Lacking that,a few 3 inch rainstorms will take care of this mess.Already,I'm seeing small patches of grass,a remarkable development after the 28 inch storm a week ago.

 

[bac2therac]

so much melting, the snow weenies never could have anticipated it going so quick. By Wednesday just the mounds on the sides of streets and walkways will remain

 

[Red Hysteria]

Is something brewing for next Sunday? looks like a rain/snow mix but Weather.com thinks 3-5" Sunday night. Was going to drive from Little Falls to Hillsborough for a SB party but if roads are bad I'm not making that hike.

 

[RU848789]

Is something brewing for next Sunday? looks like a rain/snow mix but Weather.com thinks 3-5" Sunday night. Was going to drive from Little Falls to Hillsborough for a SB party but if roads are bad I'm not making that hike.

Did they really say 3-5"? I looked at their website, which I'll admit to not knowing well (as it's not very good for our area - NWS is way better) and didn't see anything like that. If they were actually predicting snowfall amounts over a week in advance that would be just plain nuts, as it's impossible to predict snowfall that accurately that far out, as we've seen countless times. Hell, it's hard enough being accurate 24 hours out, as snowfall forecasts are exceedingly difficult.

That said, yes, some models are showing some snow for 2/7-2/8, but it's way too early to talk accumulations, let alone if there will be snowfall. Same for this Friday, 2/5, as model spread is quite high - could be a miss out to sea, could be a minor to modest winter storm (unlike this past "blizzard" which was a near certainty to be at least a moderate snowstorm 4-5 days out).

 

[Red Hysteria]

You're right. It doesn't say snow now. But earlier this afternoon when I put in little Falls and clicked on Sunday it showed the Day and Night squares. Day said rain and snow. Night said snow 3-5".

 

[RU848789]

You're right. It doesn't say snow now. But earlier this afternoon when I put in little Falls and clicked on Sunday it showed the Day and Night squares. Day said rain and snow. Night said snow 3-5".

That's downright irresponsible of them to post predicted snowfall accumulations 7-8 days out. Another reason I don't use weather.com. However, TWC, itself, has improved by leaps and bounds with their winter storm coverage, as we saw last year when they were the only ones downplaying the Jan-15 blizzard somewhat (relative to others - they still busted high in most of NJ/NYC), and they did pretty well with this storm, too. Even better than their predictions has been their analysis by various winter weather experts, which has been great to watch. However, TWC doesn't really do the weather.com local forecasts - those are just spit out from the GFS model and have low reliability.

 

[RocktheRac]

Warning Warning.... it could snow in winter

 

[RU848789]

so much melting, the snow weenies never could have anticipated it going so quick. By Wednesday just the mounds on the sides of streets and walkways will remain

Unlikely to be gone that quickly, unless we get more rain than expected on Wednesday and if we do get a lot of rain (>1.5"), then some stream/river flooding is possible, especially in the Raritan Basin (including the Millstone), as per the hydrology section of the Mt. Holly discussion.

WE NOTE OUR COUNTY-BASED 6 HOUR FFG FOR RAINFALL INDICATES ABOUT
1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF RAIN IS NEEDED TO INITIATE SMALL STREAM
FLOODING FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF THE LEHIGH
VALLEY, AS WELL AS PARTS MORRIS AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES IN NJ.

THE FOLLOWING IS PROVIDED AS PROJECTED POTENTIAL ESTIMATE BASED
ON OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. IT MAY
BE A LITTLE OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY IF THE RAINFALL IS ONLY A HALF
INCH. NO ACTION IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME SINCE WE`RE STILL TALKING
SEVERAL DAYS IN ADVANCE. STILL, THESE BASIN FORECASTS SHOULD BE
MONITORED FOR FUTURE USE. THE MID ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WILL BE MORE ACCURATELY CAPTURING RAINFALL-SNOWMELT IN ITS 72 HOUR
FORECASTS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY MORNING.

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE CYCLES OF THE GEFS AND NAEFS POINT TOWARD THE
MILLSTONE AT BLACKWELLS MILLS NJ AS BEING THE MOST LIKELY TO
FLOOD. THE RARITAN RIVER BASIN ALSO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[bac2therac]

ill take pics but today highs in the 50s already worked on getting some spots to just show grass and its only going to keep melting and then some through Wednesday and the rain should wash all but the piles away IMO

 

[RU848789]

ill take pics but today highs in the 50s already worked on getting some spots to just show grass and its only going to keep melting and then some through Wednesday and the rain should wash all but the piles away IMO

Still have a foot or more on my entire property, but my property is fairly shady and is always one of the last with snow on it (not why I bought it, lol). Some very sunny properties are getting thin. I'm not a nut on snow days of coverage like some - sure I enjoy looking at it, but I also like playing soccer and it does interfere with that. I'm guessing we may have an inch or two left by Sunday on our field or if we get a lot of rain, maybe it'll be snow-free. We'd play in either (but not in the 10-12" on the field now) - and I love playing in snow, so I'm fine either way.

 

[RocktheRac]

I believe you said last year that you had some snow left in May.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

No snow on Feb 9 please

 

[RocktheRac]

Don't you know you can't cheer for no snow . It won't matter.

 

[T2Kplus10]

ill take pics but today highs in the 50s already worked on getting some spots to just show grass and its only going to keep melting and then some through Wednesday and the rain should wash all but the piles away IMO

Yup. Lots of grass already showing on my property. Everything should be gone by Wednesday, except for the plow piles. This is the power of a very sunny, southern exposure!

 

[bac2therac]

temps have overperformed the past 7 days. I already see Mt Holly is bumping end of week temps into the mid to upper 40s whereas that's when the chill was suppose to commence

 

[DJ Spanky]

Yup. Lots of grass already showing on my property. Everything should be gone by Wednesday, except for the plow piles. This is the power of a very sunny, southern exposure!

The back of our home faces a state preserve and is a northern exposure, so we still have piles and piles of snow. I cleared out some of it over the weekend so we could get grilling again: the un-cleared areas still have 8" of very heavy snow. Barring a lot of rain, it will probably be there for a while.

 

[RocktheRac]

Another casualty form the snowstorm. A fellow landscaper from my area died in the blizzard. I didnt know him personally but I knew of him. He was a bit overweight so I imagine that didn't help the situation.

 

[FanuSanu52]

Well, could we keep the cheerleading for big snowfall to a minimum this time ?

Can we keep your b!tchy comments to a minimum, instead?

 

[FanuSanu52]

Like the swallows returning to Capistrano, the curmudgeon and the troll weigh in on a weather thread in their usual fashion.

bac - maybe you need a break from the board - so much negativity (not limited to weather threads) can't be good for you.

T - how'd your ridiculous 4-6" snowfall prediction and general downplaying of what turned out to be an historic event work out for you? I assumed you'd be too embarrassed to ever post in a weather thread again. Here's my favorite post of yours from before the storm...



https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...eekend-01-22-01-24.66892/page-10#post-1366397

T2k failed so hard last thread, he should never show up to another weather thread again.

 

[Kbee3]

Can we keep your b!tchy comments to a minimum, instead?

No.

 

[FanuSanu52]

No.

Well, thanks for at least admitting what the "bee" stands for.

 

[Kbee3]

Well, thanks for at least admitting what the "bee" stands for.

No problem.
You're entitled to your opinion....and I'm entitled to my opinion of your opinion....[poop][poop][poop][poop][poop]

 

[RU848789]

Well, could we keep the cheerleading for big snowfall to a minimum this time ?

This was an unnecessarily argumentative post, given that I didn't include any "cheerleading" in my first post in the thread. Same for some of bac's/Rock's posts. Would be nice, just one time, like in the old days, to simply have a weather thread be about...the weather.

 

[DJ Spanky]

kbee, what's with your fascination for softee ice cream?

 

[Kbee3]

This was an unnecessarily argumentative post, given that I didn't include any "cheerleading" in my first post in the thread. Same for some of bac's/Rock's posts. Would be nice, just one time, like in the old days, to simply have a weather thread be about...the weather.

You're right. I agree.
Now make sure you leave the pompoms in the closet when the next killer snow storm approaches.:sunglasses: