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Some snow, a little freezing rain, then warmer with lots of rain 2/15-2/16

RocktheRac said:
I believe you said last year that you had some snow left in May.
Click to expand...
If you're asking me, no, I never said I had snow left until April, let alone May. Our last significant snowfall was about 5-6" on 3/19 and March snowfalls melt pretty quickly, so that one was mostly gone in a few days. I recall hearing that in Boston there were some snowpiles left into May, but they had more than twice as much snow as we did last winter (~110" - their all-time record - vs. ~50" in NYC and in my backyard) - I doubt they had any "natural" snow left into May, but could be wrong (maybe in some highly shaded area).
 
Kbee3 said:
You're right. I agree.
Now make sure you leave the pompoms in the closet when the next killer snow storm approaches.:sunglasses:
Click to expand...
Thanks for the acknowledgment. Actually, if you look through my posts in the blizzard thread, 90% of them have no emotional content, i.e,. they're purely meteorological, in nature. Yes, I occasionally express disappointment over a forecast snowfall decrease or excitement about the reverse, and I absolutely will make remarks on my observation posts about how gorgeous a snowfall is that's underway, because, well, it's gorgeous.

However, I don't want these threads to end up as pissing matches, so I'll try to tone down the "cheerleading," before a storm, although I'm very unlikely to not post about the beauty of a snowfall that's in progress - people will have to just live with that or give me crap about it, if they feel they must - what I should try to do is simply ignore those posts (but that's hard - my wife has often said I like to argue for sport).
 
There is something really wrong when the weathernerds totally have what looks like a sexual orgasm when weather looks bad.
 
After this week's warmth and rain, as expected, things start to cool down and our first chance at some light mix/snow is Thursday night into Friday, as this system now appears to be moving closer to us. Best guess now is some light rain changing to light snow late Thursday night, especially S and E of I-95, where an inch or two could fall (same in NYC and LI, i.e, more towards LI), although 3-4" is possible, as is nearly nothing - very borderline event with the amount of precip in question, as well as the type. It's most likely this will just be a nuisance event with borderline boundary layer (surface) temps at or above 32F, such that accumulations would likely be limited to colder surfaces, although at night it's always possible with enough intensity there could be small accumulations on paved surfaces. This system may completely miss places more than 20-30 miles NW of I-95.

Next threat is Monday into Tuesday, which is looking a bit more serious, although it's still 5+ days out, so not worth worrying about yet. But this has the potential to bring significant snow (6" or more) to most of the I-95 corridor from Philly to NYC (at least). This far out is also has the potential to mostly miss us out to sea or come further inland with more rain/mix for I-95/coast. Don't need to sound any alarms, but worth watching this one. For comparison sake, at the same point for the recent blizzard, there was much more indication of that being a huge snowstorm (although not necessarily for NYC) vs. this one. Great write-up by the NWS, below and also included a link to the AmericanWx site. And it looks to get colder after Tuesday...

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A FAIRLY NARROW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP SOME AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT, AND
OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SHARPENING OF
THE TROUGH TO ALLOW LIFT TO GET TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES FOR A
TIME DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, AND IF THE TROUGH CAN
BECOME A BIT MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED THEN THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE
PULLED FARTHER WEST. THERE IS COOLING FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE AS THIS
IS OCCURRING AND WE ARE NOTING THE MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERING THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS AS WELL /WEST TO EAST/. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GENERAL SUPPORT MORE RAIN THAN SNOW AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT JUST BE TO MILD, HOWEVER IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH
TO FLIP TO A PERIOD OF SNOW TOWARD THE COAST BEFORE IT ENDS WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION ON NON-PAVED SURFACES.

WE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY RANGE AND ALSO EXPANDED SOME POPS
FARTHER INLAND, AND WE INCLUDED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF THE
RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LESS CERTAIN AS TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PRECIPITATION IS FALLING. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE WESTWARD EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
ALSO PRECIPITATION TYPE/TRANSITION IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM,
HOWEVER GIVEN TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WE INCREASE POPS, QPF AND
INTRODUCED SOME SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT. THE SYSTEM THEN DEPARTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME CLEARING TAKING
PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST, THEN COLDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE PATTERN MAY THEN TAKE ON SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION AS A ROBUST TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN LOW
PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES, HOWEVER THEN HANDING OFF ENERGY
EASTWARD THAT REDEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF THIS STORM MAY
DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THERE
MAY ALSO BE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DECENT COASTAL STORM WITH COLD AIR
COMING INTO PLAY. WHILE THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE STORM, THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS LESS CERTAIN AND THAT WILL
DETERMINE THE ACTUAL DETAILS IF ANY FOR OUR AREA WHICH INCLUDES
RAIN, SNOW, WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
EAST, BASICALLY MOVING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WOULD TAKE ANY COASTAL
STORM OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BE WAITING TO OUR NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR WITH
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/11-new-york-city-metro/
 
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RU848789 said:
After this week's warmth and rain, as expected, things start to cool down and our first chance at some light mix/snow is Thursday night into Friday, as this system now appears to be moving closer to us. Best guess now is some light rain changing to light snow late Thursday night, especially S and E of I-95, where an inch or two could fall (same in NYC and LI, i.e, more towards LI), although 3-4" is possible, as is nearly nothing - very borderline event with the amount of precip in question, as well as the type. It's most likely this will just be a nuisance event with borderline boundary layer (surface) temps at or above 32F, such that accumulations would likely be limited to colder surfaces, although at night it's always possible with enough intensity there could be small accumulations on paved surfaces. This system may completely miss places more than 20-30 miles NW of I-95.

Next threat is Monday into Tuesday, which is looking a bit more serious, although it's still 5+ days out, so not worth worrying about yet. But this has the potential to bring significant snow (6" or more) to most of the I-95 corridor from Philly to NYC (at least). This far out is also has the potential to mostly miss us out to sea or come further inland with more rain/mix for I-95/coast. Don't need to sound any alarms, but worth watching this one. For comparison sake, at the same point for the recent blizzard, there was much more indication of that being a huge snowstorm (although not necessarily for NYC) vs. this one. Great write-up by the NWS, below and also included a link to the AmericanWx site. And it looks to get colder after Tuesday...

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A FAIRLY NARROW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP SOME AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT, AND
OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SHARPENING OF
THE TROUGH TO ALLOW LIFT TO GET TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES FOR A
TIME DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, AND IF THE TROUGH CAN
BECOME A BIT MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED THEN THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE
PULLED FARTHER WEST. THERE IS COOLING FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE AS THIS
IS OCCURRING AND WE ARE NOTING THE MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERING THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS AS WELL /WEST TO EAST/. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GENERAL SUPPORT MORE RAIN THAN SNOW AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT JUST BE TO MILD, HOWEVER IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH
TO FLIP TO A PERIOD OF SNOW TOWARD THE COAST BEFORE IT ENDS WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION ON NON-PAVED SURFACES.

WE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY RANGE AND ALSO EXPANDED SOME POPS
FARTHER INLAND, AND WE INCLUDED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF THE
RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LESS CERTAIN AS TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PRECIPITATION IS FALLING. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE WESTWARD EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
ALSO PRECIPITATION TYPE/TRANSITION IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM,
HOWEVER GIVEN TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WE INCREASE POPS, QPF AND
INTRODUCED SOME SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT. THE SYSTEM THEN DEPARTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME CLEARING TAKING
PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST, THEN COLDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE PATTERN MAY THEN TAKE ON SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION AS A ROBUST TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN LOW
PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES, HOWEVER THEN HANDING OFF ENERGY
EASTWARD THAT REDEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF THIS STORM MAY
DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THERE
MAY ALSO BE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DECENT COASTAL STORM WITH COLD AIR
COMING INTO PLAY. WHILE THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE STORM, THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS LESS CERTAIN AND THAT WILL
DETERMINE THE ACTUAL DETAILS IF ANY FOR OUR AREA WHICH INCLUDES
RAIN, SNOW, WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
EAST, BASICALLY MOVING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WOULD TAKE ANY COASTAL
STORM OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BE WAITING TO OUR NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR WITH
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/11-new-york-city-metro/
Click to expand...

In other words..... It could snow....it could not snow.
 
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bac2therac said:
looks like the so called cold period has narrowed down to about 5 days or so in Feb
Click to expand...
Thought of you last night while at a wake for a former coach. Asked someone if he was sick and the response was "he went out shoveling and didnt feel right. Called 911 and he never got out of the hospital".
 
vkj91 said:
Thought of you last night while at a wake for a former coach. Asked someone if he was sick and the response was "he went out shoveling and didnt feel right. Called 911 and he never got out of the hospital".
Click to expand...


there was a longtime landscaper in Hillsborough who passed away last week from shoveling in the snow. He was in his 50s. The girl who cuts my hair, her stepfather had a heart attack while shoveling a few years back, he was only 46. Hey a few inches here or there isn't bad, but over 6 inches snow is the most worthless thing that inconviences and kills people
 
RU848789 said:
perhaps not...
Click to expand...


you aren't getting some of 15 day cold shot that PB was hyping....Feb 5-20....and its 40s for this weekend where the cold was supposed to start, he failed on that one.

anyhoo Lee Goldberg's snow map has nothing for virtually all of NJ except coastal sections and NYC at a trace to 1 inch mainly on colder surfaces and 1-3 out on the Island

we shall see what happens next week, if one happens the other one most likely doesn't and we may not even be cold enough
 
bac2therac said:
you aren't getting some of 15 day cold shot that PB was hyping....Feb 5-20....and its 40s for this weekend where the cold was supposed to start, he failed on that one.

anyhoo Lee Goldberg's snow map has nothing for virtually all of NJ except coastal sections and NYC at a trace to 1 inch mainly on colder surfaces and 1-3 out on the Island

we shall see what happens next week, if one happens the other one most likely doesn't and we may not even be cold enough
Click to expand...
It's going to be in the 40's for the next full week (and likely beyond that). What a great winter, so far, global warming is awesome!
 
vkj91 said:
Thought of you last night while at a wake for a former coach. Asked someone if he was sick and the response was "he went out shoveling and didnt feel right. Called 911 and he never got out of the hospital".
Click to expand...
----------------
one of my neighbors had a heart attack while shoveling during this past storm..... he had a body builder physique and worked out almost every day....... I went into the house and asked my wife, "who on this block is the least likely to have a heart attack?" and she said his name...

about 37 years old, a real shock.... he will probably be ok after a bit of surgery.
 
RU848789 said:
After this week's warmth and rain, as expected, things start to cool down and our first chance at some light mix/snow is Thursday night into Friday, as this system now appears to be moving closer to us. Best guess now is some light rain changing to light snow late Thursday night, especially S and E of I-95, where an inch or two could fall (same in NYC and LI, i.e, more towards LI), although 3-4" is possible, as is nearly nothing - very borderline event with the amount of precip in question, as well as the type. It's most likely this will just be a nuisance event with borderline boundary layer (surface) temps at or above 32F, such that accumulations would likely be limited to colder surfaces, although at night it's always possible with enough intensity there could be small accumulations on paved surfaces. This system may completely miss places more than 20-30 miles NW of I-95.

Next threat is Monday into Tuesday, which is looking a bit more serious, although it's still 5+ days out, so not worth worrying about yet. But this has the potential to bring significant snow (6" or more) to most of the I-95 corridor from Philly to NYC (at least). This far out is also has the potential to mostly miss us out to sea or come further inland with more rain/mix for I-95/coast. Don't need to sound any alarms, but worth watching this one. For comparison sake, at the same point for the recent blizzard, there was much more indication of that being a huge snowstorm (although not necessarily for NYC) vs. this one. Great write-up by the NWS, below and also included a link to the AmericanWx site. And it looks to get colder after Tuesday...
Click to expand...

Tonight's event is getting more interesting - every model has come west and there's near consensus on the possibility of a 1-6" event for most of NJ/NYC, with 1-2" amounts 20+ miles N/W of I-95 (and very little in Warren/Sussex), 2-4" amounts within 15-20 miles of I-95 (higher amounts east and lower amounts west) and 3-6" amounts within 10-20 miles of the coast, assuming we get enough cold air and the changeover from rain to snow happens relatively quickly, as is being forecast, due to dynamic cooling.

If we get those kinds of amounts (and 6-8" is not impossible, especially towards the coast in NJ and east of NYC), there are going to be a lot of surprised people on Friday morning, as we'll eventually get slush on the roads (at least secondary ones). I'e expect to see winter weather advisories going up soon and for the NWS to increase snowfall amounts. Problem is bust potential is pretty high on the low side, as precip might not move as far west as modeled and/or if temps are just 1-2F warmer, we might see more rain than snow. Tough forecast, as usual, around these parts.

Link to AmericanWx thread:
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47800-friday-coastal-strom-thread-24-25/page-6

StormTotalSnowWeb1.png
 
Last edited:
bac2therac said:
you aren't getting some of 15 day cold shot that PB was hyping....Feb 5-20....and its 40s for this weekend where the cold was supposed to start, he failed on that one.

anyhoo Lee Goldberg's snow map has nothing for virtually all of NJ except coastal sections and NYC at a trace to 1 inch mainly on colder surfaces and 1-3 out on the Island

we shall see what happens next week, if one happens the other one most likely doesn't and we may not even be cold enough
Click to expand...

bac - I never said we're getting what PB said we'd get. Simply said it was likely to be colder than normal for awhile with several chances of precip, which means possible snow. Well, we have possible snow tonight and possible snow/mix on Monday/Tuesday and temps will likely be below normal starting Monday through the end of next week (avg high next week is 41-42F). Sounds pretty close to what I said.

T2Kplus10 said:
It's going to be in the 40's for the next full week (and likely beyond that). What a great winter, so far, global warming is awesome!
Click to expand...

Can't believe you're embarrassment over how horribly wrong you were on the big snowstorm isn't enough to keep you from posting here. And you'll be wrong on what you just said. Temps may not get above 40F for all of next week after this weekend.
 
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RU848789 said:
bac - I never said we're getting what PB said we'd get. Simply said it was likely to be colder than normal for awhile with several chances of precip, which means possible snow. Well, we have possible snow tonight and possible snow/mix on Monday/Tuesday and temps will likely be below normal starting Monday through the end of next week (avg high next week is 41-42F). Sounds pretty close to what I said.



Can't believe you're embarrassment over how horribly wrong you were on the big snowstorm isn't enough to keep you from posting here. And you'll be wrong on what you just said. Temps may not get above 40F for all of next week after this weekend.
Click to expand...
Was your embarrassment over the "Blizzard of 2015" enough to keep you from posting here? Hmm?
 
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Careful with those amounts of 6 inches in Nj...very high busting potential and cutoff. Dont just take qpf because some of this lost to rain and warm temps

Nyc on east and coastal Jersey should be concerned the most...
 
T2Kplus10 said:
Was your embarrassment over the "Blizzard of 2015" enough to keep you from posting here? Hmm?
Click to expand...
Go find a mirror. Stare into it. Repeat these words "I got banned from a weather thread on a football message board". Now say it slower. Try it a couple more times.

Note the embarrassment on the face in the mirror.
 
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T2Kplus10 said:
Was your embarrassment over the "Blizzard of 2015" enough to keep you from posting here? Hmm?
Click to expand...

I had no embarrassment, per se - mostly just disappointed that the info I brought to the board (which anyone could've gotten elsewhere, really) ended up being wrong. I wasn't making predictions that were way off what the experts were predicting (and almost every expert was predicting a blizzard; in fact, I noted several times that I thought the NWS and others were too high in their predictions, given model disparity that was seen the during the day of the storm), like you did for the 1/23 storm.

Like I do for every storm, I merely provide info (with a little insight) on what the best experts (usually the NWS) are predicting. I don't "generate" forecasts. The only "predicting" I do is evaluating the models in real time, evaluating the analysis of some select pros, and "predicting" if there's going to be a shift in the NWS forecasts a few hours ahead of time, as I have that luxury (they can't be adjusting forecasts a day or two ahead every few hours).
 
RBS05 said:
Go find a mirror. Stare into it. Repeat these words "I got banned from a weather thread on a football message board". Now say it slower. Try it a couple more times.

Note the embarrassment on the face in the mirror.
Click to expand...
HA! HA! Not sure why people take online message boards so seriously. It's just a place to have fun, a nice distraction from time to time. Good grief.
 
RU848789 said:
I had no embarrassment, per se - mostly just disappointed that the info I brought to the board (which anyone could've gotten elsewhere, really) ended up being wrong. I wasn't making predictions that were way off what the experts were predicting (and almost every expert was predicting a blizzard; in fact, I noted several times that I thought the NWS and others were too high in their predictions, given model disparity that was seen the during the day of the storm), like you did for the 1/23 storm. Like I do for every storm, I merely provide info (with a little insight) on what the best experts (usually the NWS) are predicting. I don't "generate" forecasts.
Click to expand...
[roll]
 
While DT missed on the northern end of the snowfall for the blizzard, he was on top of that storm from 10 days out and was woofing for NC to Philly the entire time, so he's still a very good source, IMO. Anyway, here's his call and as he said, it's a low confidence call, given the high uncertainty on precip intensity (which will impact accumulation rate, as that equals snowfall rate - melting rate), precip totals, and surface temps, for every location.

Tough call, but I think a good one and I'd expect the NWS forecast to look similar. Also, as I just said on AmericanWx, if we get snowfall rates of 1/4" or more at night with 33-34F surface temps, the snow will accumulate and once it starts accumulating, the melting rate goes down (as snow will be fallling onto 32F snow and not 34F wet ground/asphalt), such that snow will start to accumulate even on untreated roads. I have a hard time believing anywhere in our area will have major problems on major roads, unless we get 5-6" or more over 6 hours or less.

12644984_980782361969022_6417355380037028995_n.jpg
 
RU848789 said:
Tonight's event is getting more interesting - every model has come west and there's near consensus on the possibility of a 1-6" event for most of NJ/NYC, with 1-2" amounts 20+ miles N/W of I-95 (and very little in Warren/Sussex), 2-4" amounts within 15-20 miles of I-95 (higher amounts east and lower amounts west) and 3-6" amounts within 10-20 miles of the coast, assuming we get enough cold air and the changeover from rain to snow happens relatively quickly, as is being forecast, due to dynamic cooling.

If we get those kinds of amounts (and 6-8" is not impossible, especially towards the coast in NJ and east of NYC), there are going to be a lot of surprised people on Friday morning, as we'll eventually get slush on the roads (at least secondary ones). I'e expect to see winter weather advisories going up soon and for the NWS to increase snowfall amounts. Problem is bust potential is pretty high on the low side, as precip might not move as far west as modeled and/or if temps are just 1-2F warmer, we might see more rain than snow. Tough forecast, as usual, around these parts.

Link to AmericanWx thread:
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47800-friday-coastal-strom-thread-24-25/page-6

StormTotalSnowWeb1.png
Click to expand...
That's the same map the Asbury Park Press just posted with the comment that

The snow isn’t likely to stick to the roads because it will be too warm. Accumulation will likely be on grassy and elevated surfaces, Gaines said.

“It might be a nuisance event to remind us that it is still early February,” Robinson said.

Another potential storm heading for New Jersey on Monday could be a much stronger, more dynamic storm, Robinson said.:scream::scream:

http://www.app.com/story/weather/stormwatch/2016/02/04/2-snow-storms/79813344/

Numbers, what do you know about the Monday storm?
 
with the way DT tragically busted I wouldn't be paying attention to him anytime soon.

note the NAM which everyone anointed king after hitting one storm in a hundred was dry for yesterday and how did that work out, anyway the most current NAM isn't so robust for western sections

mt holly has issued winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches of snow for much of central jersey and Eastern and SE Pennsy...saying biggest accumulations on colder surfaces...so we wait...

this one looks like a nowcasting radar watching event. A sneaky system that could go either way with a bust
 
RU848789 said:
Tonight's event is getting more interesting - every model has come west and there's near consensus on the possibility of a 1-6" event for most of NJ/NYC, with 1-2" amounts 20+ miles N/W of I-95 (and very little in Warren/Sussex), 2-4" amounts within 15-20 miles of I-95 (higher amounts east and lower amounts west) and 3-6" amounts within 10-20 miles of the coast, assuming we get enough cold air and the changeover from rain to snow happens relatively quickly, as is being forecast, due to dynamic cooling.

If we get those kinds of amounts (and 6-8" is not impossible, especially towards the coast in NJ and east of NYC), there are going to be a lot of surprised people on Friday morning, as we'll eventually get slush on the roads (at least secondary ones). I'e expect to see winter weather advisories going up soon and for the NWS to increase snowfall amounts. Problem is bust potential is pretty high on the low side, as precip might not move as far west as modeled and/or if temps are just 1-2F warmer, we might see more rain than snow. Tough forecast, as usual, around these parts.

Link to AmericanWx thread:
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47800-friday-coastal-strom-thread-24-25/page-6

StormTotalSnowWeb1.png
Click to expand...

As predicted, NWS increased snowfall forecasts - pretty close to what DT predicted. A general 1-5" snowfall from far NW NJ to the coast, with 2-3" likely near/along the I-95 corridor from Philly to NYC. Significant bust potential in either direction on this one.
 
the Monday storm and the possible Wednesday storm is all over the map with respect to model solutions...from nothing and out to sea to rain to 6 inches plus of snow to light snow....just way too early and if we get hit by one of those waves we probably miss the other
 
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