Some snow, a little freezing rain, then warmer with lots of rain 2/15-2/16
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The first storm on Sunday night into Monday is being modeled to be a monster, but was shown as 250+ miles offshore earlier today, which would mean little to no precip in NJ (maybe a minor hit for eastern LI/SE New England), although there would be beach erosion/minor flooding impacts with a powerful 970 millibar storm (more powerful, pressure-wise than the blizzard), especially since Monday is a new moon.
However, 2 of 3 of tonight's model runs, so far, have brought the storm much closer to us (the NAM and the Canadian; the GFS is a miss), such that a few inches of snow would be likely SE of I-95 and in NYC and a major snowfall would be in order for eastern LI/SE New England. Given that the models seem to be biased this season towards the S/E, i.e., they predict storms a few days out to miss or graze us and then the storms actually hit us, as the track shifts to the N/W (snowstorms and rainstorms), one has to keep an eye on this first storm. This is only 48-54 hours away, so it's not like we shouldn't have a better idea of where it's headed.
Edit: of course, the Euro shows a whiff for both the Sunday night and Tues/Weds storms. That ensures the model watching will be dramatic, lol...
The first storm looks like a classic "Miller A" storm, which forms in the SW, strengthens as it traverses the Gulf States and then goes boom off the NC/SC coast and rides up the coast (or out to sea). In the wake of this storm, we will likely see a not quite classic "Miller B" storm early Tuesday into Wednesday, which dives down from the midwest/Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and then the low "jumps" to the coast, somewhere from NC to DE and gives us a coastal storm. It's not clear how strong this storm will be or exactly where its track (it's just coming on shore in the Pac NW) will be, but there's potential for a long period of light to moderate snow, both as the storm approaches from the west (a southwest flow event, initially) and then as the coastal low takes over. Need to watch this one, too, as models don't have a good handle on it yet - right now a few inches of snow look to be possible.
After the 2nd storm, we look to get successive shots of pretty cold air, with highs unlikely to break 40 after this weekend and then unlikely to breat 32F next weekend, plus we'll likely get a clipper system next weekend that could bring some snow. And if 10 day model runs are to be believed (and they should be taken with a big grain of salt), there's a threat for another coastal low. Point is, as I said back on 1/30, when I started the thread, it looked like we were heading into a colder stormier pattern with numerous snow chances (and that looks like it's verifying, especially given that we've seen one snowstorm pan out so far). Going to be interesting to watch it all unfold. The NWS-NYC write-up was quite good, below.
Also, for what it's worth, Lee Goldberg tonight had a really interesting discussion of the continuing cold and likely snowy pattern for at least the next two weeks (and he even thought late Feb/early March would be favorable for snow). What's fascinating is that this might end up being the warmest Dec-Jan-Feb ever for the area (particularly Philly to NYC), but for the first time ever in a top 5 warm winter, we might get well above average seasonal snowfall. Here's the video.
http://abc7ny.com/weather/
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX
WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE
ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN.
THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE
LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP
OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH.
AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS
977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED.
BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS
WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A
RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND
POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON.
WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE
COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5 LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS. ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
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So what you are saying is that it will be cold in the winter with a chance of snowy patterns until it gets warmer. Ingenious!
Uhhh, it's the only thread I've started on a cold and possibly snowy pattern, because it's been an outrageously warm winter. And it certainly seems to be panning out, despite the sniping.
Most of the models are showing the first storm being a complete miss for NJ, although a glancing shot at the Shore is possible with some light snow; LI could get a few inches. Pretty big storm, too, but time is running out for it to impact our area (beyond beach erosion). However, the 2nd system on Tuesday/Wednesday still has potential, but the models are all over the map on that one, especially since it looks to rely on an inverted trough for most of the snow and they're very hard to predict this far in advance. Potential for an inch or two or maybe several inches. Then it gets very cold late in the week, with additional shots at snow, as previously discussed.
This morning's models have almost all moved the track closer to the coast for tomorrow's storm, such that warnings are likely for LI and advisories for a few inches of snow are likely for NYC and maybe coastal NJ, with a sharp cutoff west of there, i.e., could imagine 8" on Montauk, 6" at the Nassau/Suffolk border, 4" in eastern Queens, 2" in Manhattan, 1" in Newark and flurries in Morristown. That's for example, not a forecast. This is going to be a very powerful storm, likely undergoing bombogenesis (>24 mbar pressure drop in 24 hours), so any further shift NW brings significant snows to most of NJ, especially eastern NJ. But right now, not a big deal.
The second system is still all over the map, i.e., we could see light to moderate snow for 1-2 days, bringing an inch or two to several inches for most of the Philly-NYC corridor. When the snow falls will also be important, as light snow during daylight hours will mostly melt with surface temps at or above freezing and indirect sunlight. Same snow outside of 8 am to 4 pm accumulates at 33F.
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47788-27-29-se-coastal-miller-b-threats/page-22
At this point, with the current track, yes, just minor flooding (and gale force winds). Should the trend closer to the coast continue, coastal flooding could reach moderate levels.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR THE
MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
ALONG THE COAST TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH GIVEN THE NEW MOON
TOMORROW.
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. THE LATEST INDICATION IS ANY COASTAL
FLOODING WOULD BE MINOR (ADVISORY LEVEL).
REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, WE EXPECT STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE MONDAY,
WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH. IN
ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH IN
TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND ALSO FARTHER UP THE DELAWARE BAY. A FEW
LOCATIONS ON THE ATLANTIC COAST MAY EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING
TUESDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH YET.
Winter storm warnings up for Suffolk County and much of SE New England and blizzard warnings are up for Cape Cod. Winter weather advisories are up for 2-4" for NYC and Nassau County. All of this is for the first storm on Monday. No advisories for NE NJ or coastal NJ. NWS in NYC and Philly have those locations getting an inch or two of snow tomorrow (sub-advisory level). Will not take much of a shift to put those locations into advisory snows. Most of the I-95 corridor from Philly to Central Jersey looking at an inch or less from the first storm, as of now. Need to watch this first storm closely.
Still uncertain on the 2nd storm (Mon night into Weds am): an inch or two to several inches are possible. Most of the models showing at least 2-3" though, so wouldn't be surprised to see advisories go up for tomorrow night for most locations, although they may wait for the output from tonight's model runs before pulling the trigger.
Edit: and 10 minutes later, here's the updated map for Mt. Holly (with most of the snowfall from the 2nd event, as I said above).
Still uncertain on the 2nd storm (Mon night into Weds am): an inch or two to several inches are possible. Most of the models showing at least 2-3" though, so wouldn't be surprised to see advisories go up for tomorrow night for most locations, although they may wait for the output from tonight's model runs before pulling the trigger.
Edit: and 10 minutes later, here's the updated map for Mt. Holly (with most of the snowfall from the 2nd event, as I said above).
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This map is for both storms...1st event is non event check again....light snow no accumulation in my forecast for tomorrow...accumulating snow comes from Monday nightvinto Tuesday night
Thought I made that clear. First event, though, may not be a non-event for the coast - very close call if they have advisories up for SI from NWS NYC and not for coastal Monmouth/Ocean from NWS-Philly. Possible they haven't finished yet.
yeah thats my bad I misread....looks like tomorrow really isn't a worry for inland locations and as of now we just see a prolonged light snow event of varying intensity where at times it wont accumulate all that much..and then the inverted trough determines who might get some additional amounts
Ok so it sounds like I can drive my RW drive (no snow tires) car tomorrow but it might be a good idea to keep in the garage Tuesday.
Just got back from a Super Bowl party (some great defense, but kind of sloppy, too - nice to see Peyton go out with a win) and checked in and no real change vs. what I wrote above. First storm is still mainly a NYC and eastward storm with maybe an inch or two, tops, for coastal areas in NJ and maybe 1/2" to an inch from I-95 towards the coast and could be nothing but flurries N/W of I-95. NYC looks to get 1-3" and LI looks to get 3-5" mostly, but 6" or more for much of Suffolk. Also, with snowfall being light, borderline surface temps will limit any accumulation, especially after 9 am or so, with the indirect sunlight. Difference now is the chance of it coming further NW is done, as opposed to 12 hours ago, when there was still a slight chance.
Bigger storm for everyone in NJ and eastern PA will be the 2nd storm, which looks like a general 1-3" or 2-4" event for almost everyone, starting Monday night and going into Tuesday.morning, so the Tuesday morning commute could be a tough one, as temps overnight will be in the 20s for everyone, meaning snow will accumulate. There is the potential for more snow, but that would only be where the mesoscale inverted trough deformation bands set up and those look like they'll set up from Philly southward (so those areas may get 4-6") - however, these are notoriously difficult to predict and it's possible they could hit Central/North Jersey.
Below is the NWS-NYC map for just the first storm (Monday) - the NWS-Philly map from previous posts is for both storms (Mon/Tues).
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Looks like tonight's storm is pushing east of NJ coast? Been watching the radar loop for a while, and it looks like it is brushing southern Ocean County but pushing out to sea.
Yes, the storm center of low pressure is moving generally east off the NC coast right now, so that when it turns NE, it'll be too far offshore to give us much precip. If it were taking a more "typical" path coastal low path to the NE, we'd be talking blizzard warnings, like the have on Cape Cod.
By the way, as expected, brutal cold makes a visit on Friday, as a lobe of the polar vortex spins down our way. Highs this weekend will struggle to reach 25F and we could see lows near 0F in the colder locations and even down below 10F in the urban locations. Then we wait to see if any storms develop (keep an eye on 2/15 - way too early to predict, but shows potential).
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NWS in Philly finally did decide to go with a WWAdvisory for 1-3" of snow this morning/afternoon for Middlesex (really just the eastern half or even third, but they don't have halves), Monmouth and Ocean Counties (really just the parts within 10-15 miles of the coast). NWS in NYC also issued advisories for NENJ and continued them for NYC for 2-3" of snow today. Major bust potential, given the storm may not throw that much moisture that far inland and that temps will be in the 33-34F range, so accumulation will be difficult with light to moderate snow.
And for the 2nd storm they've issued winter storm watches for the counties south of 195/276 in NJ/PA for 4-8" of snow from Monday late night through Tuesday night, generally, as that's where they expect the inverted trough to set up (and really they mean 2-4" in the northern parts of counties like Ocean and Burlington). For the counties just north of 195/276, up to about 78, they're calling for maybe 1-2" of snow during that time; however, they're calling for 2-4" in NE NJ/NYC/LI for storm 2. No new maps up yet, but the ones in this thread will autoupdate. Confusing turn of events since they haven't issued updated discussions yet; or else I need some sleep, lol.
Tommy Elles WCTC: Wet snow/Flurries this morning. Light snow flurries Monday could whiten the ground. Monday night into Tuesday light snow less than an inch and Tuesday night into Wed morning with acc of a few inches.
Major bust potential realized. Not sure if anyone in NJ except the immediate Monmouth/Ocean coastlines got any snow at all from this first event, judging by the radar (and I doubt even the coast got more than 1/2"). We had a brief flurry in Metuchen, but that's it. Advisories have been dropped for all of NJ and even Manhattan/SI, where they also got very little. The eastern parts of NYC (and Westchester County) got 1-2" and LI got 2-5" (and the twin forks might get more). Was really surprised they put up those advisories, especially in NJ.
Part 2 is still all over the map for the placement of the inverted trough. Watches still up for 4-8" from late tonight through Tuesday night for counties south of 276/195 in PA/NJ, but I think there's high bust potential on that, too. The Mt. Holly map shows 2-4" near 276/195 and ~2" for eastern PA and Central/North Jersey between 276/195 and 80. NWS in NYC hasn't updated their maps yet for the 2nd system. For Central Jersey model output is ranging from <1" to 5-6" for this 2nd event. Hence the hedged ~2" prediction. Good discussion from the NWS:
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.
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NWS-NYC hasn't updated their map for Union/Essex/Hudson/Bergen/Passaic the NJ counties they forecast for, but looking at their local county forecasts from about 1 pm today, they look like they're expecting a similar amount as the Mt. Holly adjacent counties, i.e., 1-2". Again, the potential range is from <1" to up to ~5", depending on where those bands set up (most likely south of 195, but further north, while unlikely, is possible).
Mt. Holly just issued winter weather advisories for the counties between 195/276 and 78 (including Monmouth, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, Bucks/Montco/Lehigh/Berks) for 2-5" of snow from late tonight through Tuesday night. The morning rush may be a tough one with temps below 32F. During the day, with temps around 32-34F, roads should improve, except during any periods of moderate to heavy snow. Roads could again be bad for the evening rush, once the sun goes down, especially if there's falling/accumulating snow at that time.
They also updated their maps, as you can see in the post above. A general 4-7" south of 195/276 in NJ/PA and a general 3-5" from 195/276 to a bit north of 78 and a general 1-2" from North Jersey north of just south of I-80. If that holds - still a very fluid situation with that inverted trough and secondary low forecasted to form..No updated maps, still, from NYC-NWS.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ012&warncounty=NJC023&firewxzone=NJZ012&local_place1=2 Miles ESE South Plainfield NJ&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=40.5754&lon=-74.4153#.VrkEHPkrIrg
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...
.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM IT AND THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL. THE LOCATION OF WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP WILL
DETERMINE THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
NJZ009-010-012>015-PAZ060-061-103-105-091000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0006.160209T0500Z-160210T1100Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-BERKS-LEHIGH-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...READING...
ALLENTOWN...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
322 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6
AM EST WEDNESDAY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES.
* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO FALL AT A MODERATE TO HEAVY RATE AT TIMES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
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Tonight's models coming in a little snowier for North Jersey/NYC/LI/Hudson Valley, with 2-5" instead of the 1-2" currently forecast for those areas by most. Nick Gregory said he's thinking he's going to have to extend the 2-4" swath he had over the 276/195 to 78 area (similar to what the NWS has) north by 50 miles or so. Lee Goldberg just said the same thing, basically. Oddly enough, still haven't seen any snowfall maps from NWS-NYC.
Will be interesting to see if the NWS issues advisories for most/all of North Jersey, the Poconos, NYC, LI and the lower Hudson Valley or perhaps just the next tier north of 78 (like Warren, Morris, Union, Essex, Hudson, NYC, LI), but not north of there. Most of this snow would be falling Tuesday afternoon/evening and into Wednesday morning. Most of Tuesday morning/early afternoon is expected to just have some intermittent light snow with minor accumulations
Will be interesting to see if the NWS issues advisories for most/all of North Jersey, the Poconos, NYC, LI and the lower Hudson Valley or perhaps just the next tier north of 78 (like Warren, Morris, Union, Essex, Hudson, NYC, LI), but not north of there. Most of this snow would be falling Tuesday afternoon/evening and into Wednesday morning. Most of Tuesday morning/early afternoon is expected to just have some intermittent light snow with minor accumulations
Warnings were downgraded to advisories for SE PA/South Jersey for 2-4" of snow (except Chester/Delaware, which still have warnings up) and the advisories are still up for the rest of NJ and eastern PA for 2-4" of snow (mostly this evening and overnight), except for Sussex/Warren/Poconos, which are predicted to get 1-2".
The interesting development, as I wondered about last night, was the NWS in NYC did issue advisories for NE NJ (Union/Essex/Hudson/Passaic/Bergen), NYC and LI for 3-5" of snow and advisories for the lower Hudson Valley and coastal CT for 2-4" of snow.
As per yesterday, significant bust potential exists as these forecasts are based on interactions between a surface low developing off the NJ/DE coast and an upper level low to the NW, forming an "inverted trough" and these are notoriously hard to forecast with regard to location and intensity.
If they could, the NWS would likely just put out 1-2" forecasts for the region, but tell everyone that you could get 3-5" in areas that get the heavier bands. Problem with that approach is anyone who gets the heavier snow will not be "ready" for it (especially if advisories weren't issued), whereas with the approach they've taken, everyone is on alert and if they get 1.5" instead of 3-4" it's not that big of a deal.
Warnings were downgraded to advisories for SE PA/South Jersey for 2-4" of snow (except Chester/Delaware, which still have warnings up) and the advisories are still up for the rest of NJ and eastern PA for 2-4" of snow (mostly this evening and overnight), except for Sussex/Warren/Poconos, which are predicted to get 1-2".
The interesting development, as I wondered about last night, was the NWS in NYC did issue advisories for NE NJ (Union/Essex/Hudson/Passaic/Bergen), NYC and LI for 3-5" of snow and advisories for the lower Hudson Valley and coastal CT for 2-4" of snow.
As per yesterday, significant bust potential exists as these forecasts are based on interactions between a surface low developing off the NJ/DE coast and an upper level low to the NW, forming an "inverted trough" and these are notoriously hard to forecast with regard to location and intensity.
If they could, the NWS would likely just put out 1-2" forecasts for the region, but tell everyone that you could get 3-5" in areas that get the heavier bands. Problem with that approach is anyone who gets the heavier snow will not be "ready" for it (especially if advisories weren't issued), whereas with the approach they've taken, everyone is on alert and if they get 1.5" instead of 3-4" it's not that big of a deal.
In other words, like sensible people, the NWS takes a preventive approach. There are two kinds of errors it can make: errors of overestimation and errors of underestimation. The NWS would rather commit a mistake of overestimation -- estimate 2-4 inches and get 1-2 -- than underestimation -- estimate 1-2 and get 2-4. Yes, overestimation does harm -- unnecessarily cancelled plans -- but underestimation would be worse, because people would fail to prepare properly for a threatening event that can cause harm. As the numbers increase -- four to eight as opposed to six to twelve -- the considerations increasingly favor leaning toward errors of overestimation.
Well said. On the weather board earlier today, I actually expanded the short version I had above that you quoted to put it in a more classic risk management perspective (quoted below) - I think we're in violent agreement on this. And I'm sure I'll get a little teasing from a few folks on this approach at work, but we cancelled a "celebration" event for late this afternoon, based on the info we had yesterday morning, and we moved it to Thursday afternoon. My logic was I knew we'd be fine on Thursday afternoon, but couldn't be sure about Tuesday afternoon, and when we had it was essentially neutral to 99% of the population, so why not pick the safe choice.
"From a risk management perspective, I get why the NWS takes the more aggressive approach in an event like this one. I'm guessing that putting out general 1-2" forecasts for the region, noting that impossible-to-pinpoint areas will likely receive 3-5", would likely be more accurate globally. This is essentially their model in impossible-to-pinpoint summertime t-storms, where they say something like, "0.1-0.2" of rain is likely, but up to 0.5" is possible in localized t-storms." Thing is, nobody cares in summer if they get 0.1" vs. 0.5", for the most part, whereas in winter, people scream bloody hell, lol.
Problem with that approach is anyone who gets the heavier snow will not be "ready" for it, especially if advisories weren't issued, whereas with the approach they've taken, everyone is on alert and if they get 1.5" instead of 3-4" it's not that big of a deal. From a risk perspective, you'd generally rather overwarn so people are aware/ready and have the risk not quite be realized, than to underwarn and have a whole bunch of people surprised (which is when we get things like giant traffic snarls, usually, like the 1" in DC before the blizzard that led to gridlock, as nobody knew it was coming)."
Based on the 12Z models showing less precip (not all, but most), as I was saying earlier, bust potential is pretty high. I’m thinking a general area-wide 1-2” snowfall late this afternoon (not much will fall before then; we did get 1/2" in Metuchen overnight) through the evening is more realistic, with some localized spots getting 2-5” under impossible-to-predict mesoscale banding.
As Camden and I were discussing, though, I doubt the NWS reduces snowfall forecasts and drops the advisories until or unless it becomes obvious they won't verify, since I don't think they want people to let their guard down. Especially since wherever snow falls (even if it's only 1-2") after about 5 pm will see slippery conditions, as temps will be at or below 32F by then and the sun will be down.
By the way, it could get to around or even below 0F early Sunday morning (with a high around 15F) - should be awesome weather for our weekly soccer match at 8 am, lol. Also, there's a chance for a decent sized winter storm (mixed precip looking possible, as this one may be a coastal hugger or even go inland a bit)) on Monday, 2/15. Just a heads up...
As Camden and I were discussing, though, I doubt the NWS reduces snowfall forecasts and drops the advisories until or unless it becomes obvious they won't verify, since I don't think they want people to let their guard down. Especially since wherever snow falls (even if it's only 1-2") after about 5 pm will see slippery conditions, as temps will be at or below 32F by then and the sun will be down.
By the way, it could get to around or even below 0F early Sunday morning (with a high around 15F) - should be awesome weather for our weekly soccer match at 8 am, lol. Also, there's a chance for a decent sized winter storm (mixed precip looking possible, as this one may be a coastal hugger or even go inland a bit)) on Monday, 2/15. Just a heads up...
A little surprised NWS kept the advisories for a general 2-4" for almost all of NJ (except Warren/Morris with 1-2" and far SE NJ/DE near ocean, where they'll see more rain), all of eastern PA, and NYC/LI. They're hedging their bets as I thought they might be - can tell from the write-up in the NWS-NYC AFD, as per below (same logic applies for the Philly office). They know some places will get 2-5", but don't know where, and that most places will get 1-2", but don't know where, and that a few places will get nearly nothing...but don't know where. So, you go with 1-4" region-wide, effectively. Nowcasting time. I'll be happy with an inch or two after all this...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING...AND THEN
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND TOWARDS THE 40/70 BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND THEN AS BANDS OF
MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW...THOSE BANDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST NAM KEEPS THE HEAVIER BANDS
OFFSHORE...WHILE THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THEM ACROSS NYC AND LONG
ISLAND. LATEST ECMWF DOES NOT REALLY INDICATE MUCH BANDING...AND
HAS MINIMAL LIQUID QPF OVERALL. IF THOSE SNOW BANDS MATERIALIZE
AND MOVE ONSHORE...THOSE AREAS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...PICKING UP 3-5 INCHES. THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE WIDELY
VARIABLE...WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE ADVISORY NOT GETTING MUCH
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW. IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE
THE BANDS SET UP.
