Some snow, a little freezing rain, then warmer with lots of rain 2/15-2/16

[RU848789]

A little surprised NWS kept the advisories for a general 2-4" for almost all of NJ (except Warren/Morris with 1-2" and far SE NJ/DE near ocean, where they'll see more rain), all of eastern PA, and NYC/LI. They're hedging their bets as I thought they might be - can tell from the write-up in the NWS-NYC AFD, as per below (same logic applies for the Philly office). They know some places will get 2-5", but don't know where, and that most places will get 1-2", but don't know where, and that a few places will get nearly nothing...but don't know where. So, you go with 1-4" region-wide, effectively. Nowcasting time. I'll be happy with an inch or two after all this...

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING...AND THEN
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND TOWARDS THE 40/70 BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND THEN AS BANDS OF
MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW...THOSE BANDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST NAM KEEPS THE HEAVIER BANDS
OFFSHORE...WHILE THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THEM ACROSS NYC AND LONG
ISLAND. LATEST ECMWF DOES NOT REALLY INDICATE MUCH BANDING...AND
HAS MINIMAL LIQUID QPF OVERALL. IF THOSE SNOW BANDS MATERIALIZE
AND MOVE ONSHORE...THOSE AREAS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...PICKING UP 3-5 INCHES. THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE WIDELY
VARIABLE...WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE ADVISORY NOT GETTING MUCH
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW. IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE
THE BANDS SET UP.

Just looking at the radar, having a hard time believing anyone is going to get more than 1-2", which is part of the reason the NWS has started what could be a long slow reduction in forecast snowfall amounts, although they kept most of the advisories, for continuity sake, even though advisory criterion is 3" or more for counties north of 276/195 in PA/NJ (and all the NYC metro counties). Have seen this rodeo before, lol. Have seen maybe 1/4" tonight after our 1/2" this morning - will see if we can get to 2" total, so at least the 2-4" advisory can verify.

 

[RU848789]

Just looking at the radar, having a hard time believing anyone is going to get more than 1-2", which is part of the reason the NWS has started what could be a long slow reduction in forecast snowfall amounts, although they kept most of the advisories, for continuity sake, even though advisory criterion is 3" or more for counties north of 276/195 in PA/NJ (and all the NYC metro counties). Have seen this rodeo before, lol. Have seen maybe 1/4" tonight after our 1/2" this morning - will see if we can get to 2" total, so at least the 2-4" advisory can verify.

Well at least it wasn't that slow, as the NWS in both Philly and NYC just cancelled all advisories and has reduced the snowfall maps again to a general 1-2" of snow. Wll be surprised if anyone gets to 2" in NJ (parts of SE PA did get 2-5", but it didn't make it across the Delaware). Thinking the best we're going to do here is 1" if we get another 1/4" tonight...

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Well we got a dusting - I'm surprised they didn't declare a snow emergency!

 

[Zak57]

Well we got a dusting - I'm surprised they didn't declare a snow emergency!

This isn't south of the Mason-Dixon.

 

[mildone]

Well we got a dusting - I'm surprised they didn't declare a snow emergency!

It was a damn snow emergency. My damn kid was out shoveling or sweeping or whatever our back deck down to the driveway. Loudly. At some ungodly hour. Like a half inch of snow. Just walk over it fer gosh sake. Brat.

 

[Kbee3]

Well we got a dusting - I'm surprised they didn't declare a snow emergency!

The two storms this week have been just great here in Bergen County. Nothing. ...couldn't even call it a dusting.
Nice work, RU848789.

 

[RU848789]

The two storms this week have been just great here in Bergen County. Nothing. ...couldn't even call it a dusting.
Nice work, RU848789.

Well at least it wasn't that slow, as the NWS in both Philly and NYC just cancelled all advisories and has reduced the snowfall maps again to a general 1-2" of snow. Wll be surprised if anyone gets to 2" in NJ (parts of SE PA did get 2-5", but it didn't make it across the Delaware). Thinking the best we're going to do here is 1" if we get another 1/4" tonight...

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

We did get another 1/4", for a grand total of 1" from this "storm." As I've been saying for days, very hard to predict the placement of these inverted troughs. It did deliver, however, for most of northern MD, southern PA, SE PA and northern DE. The Philly burbs got a general 3-6", while South Jersey mostly got 1-2", despite both areas being forecasted to get 4-8" as per the warnings. And of course, most of Central/North Jersey got 0.5-1.5", with a few spots getting up to 2". Over 2 storms, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Union, Essex, and Hudson were under advisories for 1-3" and then 2-5" and most got an inch or so. Sad days for snow lovers.

Looking ahead, it's really going to be brutally cold this weekend, with lows on Sunday morning possibly breaking records. Could be the first time in over 20 years it goes below 0F in Central Park and most of the region should get to below 0F, with wind chills in the -10 to -25F range. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will struggle to get to 15F and we very likely won't get above 32F from Thursday through Monday.

And then we likely will be impacted by a significant winter storm Monday night through Tuesday. This one might be more wet than white for most, with an inland track possible, but not set in stone. Could be a classic snow to sleet to rain for the coastal plain (with mostly rain), snow to mix to eventual rain for NW locations and big snow-paste job (with sleet/ice possible) for the ski resorts in PA, NY and interior New England. 5 days out, so a lot can change, especially as the main players are still not on shore yet (and are not being well sampled for the critical initial conditions for the models, resulting in large error bars on the forecast). While I always want snow, I'm willing to take one for the team and let the ski resorts, which are really hurting (most are way, way below normal snowfall and much less than we've had in the I-95 corridor this winter, which is very unusual), get pummeled with snow, while we get a bit of snow to mostly rain for most of us. :>)

Edit: annoying that the new site doesn't record the thread title in the post header, like the old one did, which means one can't see a record of the changes to a thread title. This started out as, "January thaw this week, followed by likely cold and possibly stormy conditions for next 1-2 weeks" on 1/30, then I changed it to, "Mon (2/8) storm busted; Tues (2/9 storm a few inches? Then very cold (and maybe some snow?)" on 2/8, and just changed it to "Cold to brutally cold from 2/11-2/15, then a major winter storm possible."

 

[WhiteBus]

Weather weenies and the local media sure missed out on today's event in NE Philly. A small but powerful snow storm is dumbing measurable snow here right now. And since it so cold it's sticking every where. This is more than the three days they called for snow. Meanwhile in Center City Philly it's sunny. About 12 Mikes away

 

[RUScrew85]

We did get another 1/4", for a grand total of 1" from this "storm." As I've been saying for days, very hard to predict the placement of these inverted troughs. It did deliver, however, for most of northern MD, southern PA, SE PA and northern DE. The Philly burbs got a general 3-6", while South Jersey mostly got 1-2", despite both areas being forecasted to get 4-8" as per the warnings. And of course, most of Central/North Jersey got 0.5-1.5", with a few spots getting up to 2". Over 2 storms, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Union, Essex, and Hudson were under advisories for 1-3" and then 2-5" and most got an inch or so. Sad days for snow lovers.

Looking ahead, it's really going to be brutally cold this weekend, with lows on Sunday morning possibly breaking records. Could be the first time in over 20 years it goes below 0F in Central Park and most of the region should get to below 0F, with wind chills in the -10 to -25F range. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will struggle to get to 15F and we very likely won't get above 32F from Thursday through Monday.

And then we likely will be impacted by a significant winter storm Monday night through Tuesday. This one might be more wet than white for most, with an inland track possible, but not set in stone. Could be a classic snow to sleet to rain for the coastal plain (with mostly rain), snow to mix to eventual rain for NW locations and big snow-paste job (with sleet/ice possible) for the ski resorts in PA, NY and interior New England. 5 days out, so a lot can change, especially as the main players are still not on shore yet (and are not being well sampled for the critical initial conditions for the models, resulting in large error bars on the forecast). While I always want snow, I'm willing to take one for the team and let the ski resorts, which are really hurting (most are way, way below normal snowfall and much less than we've had in the I-95 corridor this winter, which is very unusual), get pummeled with snow, while we get a bit of snow to mostly rain for most of us. :>)

Edit: annoying that the new site doesn't record the thread title in the post header, like the old one did, which means one can't see a record of the changes to a thread title. This started out as, "January thaw this week, followed by likely cold and possibly stormy conditions for next 1-2 weeks" on 1/30, then I changed it to, "Mon (2/8) storm busted; Tues (2/9 storm a few inches? Then very cold (and maybe some snow?)" on 2/8, and just changed it to "Cold to brutally cold from 2/11-2/15, then a major winter storm possible."

Threads are free. Start a new one.

 

[RU848789]

Weather weenies and the local media sure missed out on today's event in NE Philly. A small but powerful snow storm is dumbing measurable snow here right now. And since it so cold it's sticking every where. This is more than the three days they called for snow. Meanwhile in Center City Philly it's sunny. About 12 Mikes away

It's not a "snowstorm," per se - it's simply instability driven snow showers/squalls (associated with the cold front - kind of like summertime showers which will hit some places and not others), which were predicted for this morning (NWS lists up to 1/2" possible area-wide. Although anyone in the midst of a squall that puts down a quick inch will feel like they're in a snowstorm. Below is the latest on that.

The Monday into Tuesday system is trending wetter than whiter with an inland track looking more likely, although that's still nowhere near set in stone...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
954 AM: MAY START HAMMERING I-80 AREA IN AN 11AM UPDATE...PENDING
A LITTLE MORE MODEL GUIDANCE. HRRR TRYING TO LATCH ONTO SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOST RECENT CYCLE...STILL WAY BEHIND REALITY.

930 AM ESTF: WE THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NARROW BANDS. ALREADY
UNCONFIRMED REPORT 1.5". HANDLING WITH SPS`S AND VIGOROUSLY
UPDATED LEGACY AND POINT CLICK PRODUCTS. SNOW MAP UPDATING NOW BUT
STILL GENERAL LESS THAN 1".

730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[LadyRU09]

My weather app also says rain for Tuesday. Hope that's the case!

 

[retired711]

I live in Cherry Hill. There was snow on grass, but nothing at all on pavement. Still, thanks to RU#s for keeping us informed about the possibility of this event.

 

[bac2therac]

All indications pointing to a rainstorm next week..any snow would be brief at the start

 

[RU848789]

Looking ahead, it's really going to be brutally cold this weekend, with lows on Sunday morning possibly breaking records. Could be the first time in over 20 years it goes below 0F in Central Park and most of the region should get to below 0F, with wind chills in the -10 to -25F range. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will struggle to get to 15F and we very likely won't get above 32F from Thursday through Monday.

And then we likely will be impacted by a significant winter storm Monday night through Tuesday. This one might be more wet than white for most, with an inland track possible, but not set in stone. Could be a classic snow to sleet to rain for the coastal plain (with mostly rain), snow to mix to eventual rain for NW locations and big snow-paste job (with sleet/ice possible) for the ski resorts in PA, NY and interior New England. 5 days out, so a lot can change, especially as the main players are still not on shore yet (and are not being well sampled for the critical initial conditions for the models, resulting in large error bars on the forecast). While I always want snow, I'm willing to take one for the team and let the ski resorts, which are really hurting (most are way, way below normal snowfall and much less than we've had in the I-95 corridor this winter, which is very unusual), get pummeled with snow, while we get a bit of snow to mostly rain for most of us. :>)

No real change in the forecast of brutal cold with potentially dangerous wind chills this weekend, especially Sunday morning, where we might break some cold records (see below) with temps generally in the -5F to +5F range and wind chills of -15F to -25F.

WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION...RECORD/FORECAST MIN...RECORD LOW MAX/FORECAST HIGH FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916) / 3.............17 (1979) / 16
LGA...........1 (1979) / 5.............15 (1979) / 16
JFK...........4 (1979) / 4.............17 (1979) / 17
ISP...........7 (2015) / 0.............26 (1987) / 14
EWR...........0 (1979) / 2.............15 (1979) / 16
BDR...........3 (2015*) / 0.............18 (1979) / 15
Philly...........2 (1979) / 1.............. 14 (1979) / 14

The Monday night through Tuesday storm is definitely looking like an inland cutter, making it a mostly rain event for the I-95 corridor and the coast, after maybe an inch or two of snow/sleet at the start. Could be some heavy, flooding rains (with frozen ground, there's nowhere for the rain to go) with 1-2" likely. Even interior sections to the N/W, like the Poconos/Sussex/Catskills/Hudson Valley are likely to change over to rain, but maybe after several inches of snow, then some sleet and possibly some freezing rain (which is the most dangerous winter precip).

Since it's still 4 days out, it's possible the track could move back offshore and bring a lot more snow to the coastal plain/I-95 corridor, but that's looking like a low probability event, much like it's a low probability event for the storm to go much further west and bring almost all rain to everyone.

Assuming this continues to look mainly wet, I don't see any need for a new thread on this, as people tend to not care too much about a rainstorm, lol.

 

[retired711]

No real change in the forecast of brutal cold with potentially dangerous wind chills this weekend, especially Sunday morning, where we might break some cold records (see below) with temps generally in the -5F to +5F range and wind chills of -15F to -25F.

WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION...RECORD/FORECAST MIN...RECORD LOW MAX/FORECAST HIGH FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916) / 3.............17 (1979) / 16
LGA...........1 (1979) / 5.............15 (1979) / 16
JFK...........4 (1979) / 4.............17 (1979) / 17
ISP...........7 (2015) / 0.............26 (1987) / 14
EWR...........0 (1979) / 2.............15 (1979) / 16
BDR...........3 (2015*) / 0.............18 (1979) / 15
Philly...........2 (1979) / 1.............. 14 (1979) / 14

The Monday night through Tuesday storm is definitely looking like an inland cutter, making it a mostly rain event for the I-95 corridor and the coast, after maybe an inch or two of snow/sleet at the start. Could be some heavy, flooding rains (with frozen ground, there's nowhere for the rain to go) with 1-2" likely. Even interior sections to the N/W, like the Poconos/Sussex/Catskills/Hudson Valley are likely to change over to rain, but maybe after several inches of snow, then some sleet and possibly some freezing rain (which is the most dangerous winter precip).

Since it's still 4 days out, it's possible the track could move back offshore and bring a lot more snow to the coastal plain/I-95 corridor, but that's looking like a low probability event, much like it's a low probability event for the storm to go much further west and bring almost all rain to everyone.

Assuming this continues to look mainly wet, I don't see any need for a new thread on this, as people tend to not care too much about a rainstorm, lol.

No real change in the forecast of brutal cold with potentially dangerous wind chills this weekend, especially Sunday morning, where we might break some cold records (see below) with temps generally in the -5F to +5F range and wind chills of -15F to -25F.

WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION...RECORD/FORECAST MIN...RECORD LOW MAX/FORECAST HIGH FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916) / 3.............17 (1979) / 16
LGA...........1 (1979) / 5.............15 (1979) / 16
JFK...........4 (1979) / 4.............17 (1979) / 17
ISP...........7 (2015) / 0.............26 (1987) / 14
EWR...........0 (1979) / 2.............15 (1979) / 16
BDR...........3 (2015*) / 0.............18 (1979) / 15
Philly...........2 (1979) / 1.............. 14 (1979) / 14

The Monday night through Tuesday storm is definitely looking like an inland cutter, making it a mostly rain event for the I-95 corridor and the coast, after maybe an inch or two of snow/sleet at the start. Could be some heavy, flooding rains (with frozen ground, there's nowhere for the rain to go) with 1-2" likely. Even interior sections to the N/W, like the Poconos/Sussex/Catskills/Hudson Valley are likely to change over to rain, but maybe after several inches of snow, then some sleet and possibly some freezing rain (which is the most dangerous winter precip).

Since it's still 4 days out, it's possible the track could move back offshore and bring a lot more snow to the coastal plain/I-95 corridor, but that's looking like a low probability event, much like it's a low probability event for the storm to go much further west and bring almost all rain to everyone.

Assuming this continues to look mainly wet, I don't see any need for a new thread on this, as people tend to not care too much about a rainstorm, lol.

Yes, but *please* let us if there is going to be freezing rain in NJ or NY.

 

[bac2therac]

aw too bad its looking like rain and lots of it and then we warm up again. Winter may be on its last breath this weekend

 

[RU#1fan]

3 degrees up here in Burlington, VT

 

[RU848789]

aw too bad its looking like rain and lots of it and then we warm up again. Winter may be on its last breath this weekend

No need to be a jerk about it. Also, I assume you'll concede that my original thread title was spot on. It was warm and then it got colder for the next 1-2 weeks (from 2/4 through 2/15, including some brutal cold and, by far, the coldest stretch of the season) and we had lots of snow chances, some of which came through and some didn't. And calling for an end of winter in mid-Feb is a little silly. Of course, it's getting warmer and snow chances decrease, but we usually get some decent snows in the 2nd half of Feb and the first half of March.

 

[bac2therac]

No need to be a jerk about it. Also, I assume you'll concede that my original thread title was spot on. It was warm and then it got colder for the next 1-2 weeks (from 2/4 through 2/15, including some brutal cold and, by far, the coldest stretch of the season) and we had lots of snow chances, some of which came through and some didn't. And calling for an end of winter in mid-Feb is a little silly. Of course, it's getting warmer and snow chances decrease, but we usually get some decent snows in the 2nd half of Feb and the first half of March.

this so called super period was rather meh...one small storm of 2-4 inches that melted in two hours...then hours and hours of model watching and posting for a storm that delivered less than an inch for most and some absolutely nothing....oh and how fitting a cutter turning warm for next week

what a kick in the balls to go from 3 degees on Sunday morning to 53 just 54 hours later

meanwhile the hype on the cold is ridiculous Its two days of cold...woooh we all will die.. We have far colder days and night in recent times. January two years ago comes to mind. it was like 11 for a high, we had our great aunts funeral and only the pallbearers went to the grave because temps were 7 degrees at the time with biting windchils.

 

[RocktheRac]

this so called super period was rather meh...one small storm of 2-4 inches that melted in two hours...then hours and hours of model watching and posting for a storm that delivered less than an inch for most and some absolutely nothing....oh and how fitting a cutter turning warm for next week

what a kick in the balls to go from 3 degees on Sunday morning to 53 just 54 hours later

meanwhile the hype on the cold is ridiculous Its two days of cold...woooh we all will die.. We have far colder days and night in recent times. January two years ago comes to mind. it was like 11 for a high, we had our great aunts funeral and only the pallbearers went to the grave because temps were 7 degrees at the time with biting windchils.

This is a mild winter. Maybe the whistle pig was right.

 

[RU848789]

this so called super period was rather meh...one small storm of 2-4 inches that melted in two hours...then hours and hours of model watching and posting for a storm that delivered less than an inch for most and some absolutely nothing....oh and how fitting a cutter turning warm for next week

what a kick in the balls to go from 3 degees on Sunday morning to 53 just 54 hours later

meanwhile the hype on the cold is ridiculous Its two days of cold...woooh we all will die.. We have far colder days and night in recent times. January two years ago comes to mind. it was like 11 for a high, we had our great aunts funeral and only the pallbearers went to the grave because temps were 7 degrees at the time with biting windchils.

Your comments are about what other people said, not me. I said it would be colder than normal for 1-2 weeks with plenty of snow chances. And so the period from 2/4 to 2/15 will be well below normal (especially 2/11-2/15, featuring likely record cold) and we had plenty of snow chances, including one nice storm (3-5" for most on 2/5), one huge storm that just missed and one underperforming storm (1-2" for most) - in fact most had at least 3-4" over a one week period, which is well above normal for any week in winter (for 12 weeks of winter this would be 36-48:, well above our 25-30" average for the area). Plus the models trended east last night, so the Monday/Tuesday storm, while still likely to be mostly rain, could well start off with 2-3" of snow for most and a bit more well inland.

 

[bac2therac]

Your comments are about what other people said, not me. I said it would be colder than normal for 1-2 weeks with plenty of snow chances. And so the period from 2/4 to 2/15 will be well below normal (especially 2/11-2/15, featuring likely record cold) and we had plenty of snow chances, including one nice storm (3-5" for most on 2/5), one huge storm that just missed and one underperforming storm (1-2" for most) - in fact most had at least 3-4" over a one week period, which is well above normal for any week in winter (for 12 weeks of winter this would be 36-48:, well above our 25-30" average for the area). Plus the models trended east last night, so the Monday/Tuesday storm, while still likely to be mostly rain, could well start off with 2-3" of snow for most and a bit more well inland.

I got 2 inches from storm 1 and less than an inch from the 2nd...half the state did likewise

Keep dreaming about a brief period of snow...we wont get 2-3 inches

 

[lighty]

what a kick in the balls to go from 3 degees on Sunday morning to 53 just 54 hours later.

0 to 3 degrees is pretty damn cold, no matter where you're from.

 

[RU848789]

I got 2 inches from storm 1 and less than an inch from the 2nd...half the state did likewise

Keep dreaming about a brief period of snow...we wont get 2-3 inches

You're becoming insufferable. My first post in this thread, in italics, below, has completely verified and all you do is try to find the tiniest thing to argue about rather than acknowledging it.

"Thought people might be interested. After a few mild days, we could reach record highs into the 60s this Wednesday as a "Lakes Cutter" storm goes well to our NW, bringing in warm air from the SW. Then the pattern changes with a cold front coming through and cross polar flow sets up (otherwise known as a polar vortex), leading to a pattern featuring a west coast ridge and a long wave trough over most of the east, making the next 1-2 weeks likely to be colder than normal, with several chances for precip, which means chances for snow (or mixed precip/rain, depending on timing).

Impossible to predict storms and outcomes this far out, but the pattern will be favorable for cold/snow. First chance for wintry weather is next Friday, although models currently show this system likely missing to our SE (but it's too close to rule out this far away). Here's what the NWS had to say..."

You are the only person in Somerset/Middlesex/Monmouth Counties who reported 2" from storm 1. Everyone else got 3-5". Do I need to repost the PNS from the NWS which I posted on page 3? Plus, most people, on average got between 0.5 and 1.5" from storm 2, hence my estimate of an average of 1" for most. So my point above was that everyone got at least 3" and most got at least 4" from the two storms combined (and many got more) - and even if one only got 3" combined, like you, 3" in 5 days works out to 54" in a 90-day winter, i.e., that amount of snow is well above normal for that time period.

Also, your "this isn't going to happen" statements have been horrible this season, such as (and I'm paraphrasing here),

• There's no way we're getting more than 8" out of this storm (for the blizzard)
• There's no way this storm (storm 1 on 2/5) is coming back east
• There's no way we're getting any serious cold weather with this cold shot

Remind me to add your last statement on this Monday/Tuesday storm to that. I at least admit I'm not sure about getting 2-3", but it's certainly possible (maybe a 25-30% chance, which is why I said "could" above), given the shift in the track, as is very little snow, since we're 3+ days out and so much can change. But you're absolutely sure this far out. Perhaps you missed your calling and should be on TV since you seem to have absolutely certain insights that nobody else has.

 

[bac2therac]

heres the deal. I worked Belle Mead, Hillsborough, Somerville, Bridgewater....most was 2 inches in Belle Mead on grass and part of Bridgewater..on grass and this wasn't sticking to a lot of pavements in areas like Raritan So no everyone didn't get 3-5 inches

as for definitive statements I don't know about that, I like to say most likely scenerios....for one all you do is say yes it might snow but it might not...Gee way to take a stand to cover yourself on everything. Its February its going to snow and be cold but it could not but maybe it will snow at least 6 inches but it may not either. LMFAO because you didn't predict the blizzard either

as for the Monday night Tuesday event...at best for you weenies you will get a brief period of snow that will wash away within an hour or less before all wake up. Most models in fairly good agreement of a warm event

storm 1 on Monday I got zilch...storm two I got .5...lets throw a parade, you know its bad when dustings start to get counted. You in fact made a comment that storm 1 was a bust...no it wasn't, it was not forecasted to accumulate snow anywhere but extremely coastal NJ and NYC east. I think it actually did that so it wasn't a bust. 2nd storm was a HUGE BUST....3-5 calls by Mt Holly bumping totals late afternoon despite guidance suggesting it wasn't going to happen

 

[RUPete]

What about wind for the Feb. 15-16 event? I saw some posts on the American Weather board saying that there could be significant winds with this event, regardless of precip as modeled by the Euro. That would concern me a little more at this point.

 

[DJ Spanky]

What about wind for the Feb. 15-16 event? I saw some posts on the American Weather board saying that there could be significant winds with this event, regardless of precip as modeled by the Euro. That would concern me a little more at this point.

Well, if bac is arguing it, there will definitely be significant wind.

 

[RU848789]

heres the deal. I worked Belle Mead, Hillsborough, Somerville, Bridgewater....most was 2 inches in Belle Mead on grass and part of Bridgewater..on grass and this wasn't sticking to a lot of pavements in areas like Raritan So no everyone didn't get 3-5 inches

as for definitive statements I don't know about that, I like to say most likely scenerios....for one all you do is say yes it might snow but it might not...Gee way to take a stand to cover yourself on everything. Its February its going to snow and be cold but it could not but maybe it will snow at least 6 inches but it may not either. LMFAO because you didn't predict the blizzard either

as for the Monday night Tuesday event...at best for you weenies you will get a brief period of snow that will wash away within an hour or less before all wake up. Most models in fairly good agreement of a warm event

storm 1 on Monday I got zilch...storm two I got .5...lets throw a parade, you know its bad when dustings start to get counted. You in fact made a comment that storm 1 was a bust...no it wasn't, it was not forecasted to accumulate snow anywhere but extremely coastal NJ and NYC east. I think it actually did that so it wasn't a bust. 2nd storm was a HUGE BUST....3-5 calls by Mt Holly bumping totals late afternoon despite guidance suggesting it wasn't going to happen

My bad on saying everyone got 3-5" in the 2/5 storm - meant to say 2-5" (which is what I said in the original post-mortem). However, people on AmericanWx reported 2.5-3.0" from places like Hillsborough (2.5" in the NWS report), Somerville and Bridgewater, so not sure your measurements were timely/accurate. Plus, the point was, even for you, who seemed to have gotten the least snow out of anyone in NJ, 2.5" in 5 days is well above normal (45" in a 90-day winter).

And you're full of shit that "all I do is say it might snow and it might not. I usually offer up "likely" and "unlikely" scenarios and sometimes even give an estimated probability, but I rarely make absolute 0%/100% statements when there are 10-20% probabilities of an outcome. In fact on this thread (page 2), I looked at the model output for the 0Z suite and predicted the NWS would raise their accumulations and issue advisories in their next package - which they did 4 hours later.

Of course, I didn't "predict" the blizzard - nobody really did, as the move north was only seen by the NAM in advance and nobody trusted it, for good reason. But I didn't say a major/historic storm wasn't going to happen, like you and others did. And storm 1 was a bust for eastern Jersey - when advisories for 1-3" get issued and not a flake falls, that's a bust. We agree on the 2nd storm being a big bust - and on both, I kept saying there was big bust potential, which I don't do if I'm confident the NWS has it right. .

And I don't care that much about all of this, as it's a friggin' message board and people argue. What did annoy me in this thread, though, were your comments early in the thread that I should change the thread title and later when you were saying the cold wasn't going to verify. Everything in my initial post/thread title verified, but you can't find it in yourself to admit that for some reason. Why is that?

Lastly, for this storm, as I've said, it's most likely 90% rain for the I-95 corridor, but there's a modest chance of a few inches of snow on the front end (NWS mentions this, especially for western portions of our area), which will then get quickly washed away by 1-2" of rain and temps reaching 50F or so. Our difference there is you say "no snow" which you know could be wrong.

For other readers, there is the chance of some pretty high winds with the Mon/Tues storm (could see high wind advisories, even inland), as well as minor to moderate urban and small stream flooding, as reservoirs and rivers are pretty full.

 

[FanuSanu52]

this so called super period was rather meh...one small storm of 2-4 inches that melted in two hours...then hours and hours of model watching and posting for a storm that delivered less than an inch for most and some absolutely nothing....oh and how fitting a cutter turning warm for next week

what a kick in the balls to go from 3 degees on Sunday morning to 53 just 54 hours later

meanwhile the hype on the cold is ridiculous Its two days of cold...woooh we all will die.. We have far colder days and night in recent times. January two years ago comes to mind. it was like 11 for a high, we had our great aunts funeral and only the pallbearers went to the grave because temps were 7 degrees at the time with biting windchils.

Seriously, why should people care about preparing for the cold when they have so many more important things to worry about ... like how bad the Super Bowl halftime show was compared to 37 years ago.

 

[RUhasarrived]

Central Park just canceled their ICE festival for this weekend.If it hits zero at any time during this upcoming cold snap,it'll be the first time it's done that in NYC since Jan.1994,a time when Nicole Brown was still living.

 

[RU848789]

Back to the weather. Wind chill advisories are up for the region for -10 to -20F wind chills Sat night and Sunday, with air temps Sunday morning likely falling to close to 0F, even in the big cities (and -5 to -10F in the colder suburbs). Could also see a dusting to 1/2" in spots in snow showers tonight. The pussies (@mildone) that run our Sunday morning soccer matches cancelled due to the cold. :>)

For the Mon/Tues storm, it's likely a mostly rain event for the region, but could start out as snow for several hours Monday afternoon/evening, leaving an inch or two of snow, especially the further west one goes, given a likely track just inland of the coast; areas well N/W could get several inches on the front end, but should change to plain rain there, too; freezing rain is looking unlikely, given the vertical thermal profiles. Even if the track is off the coast, it's likely there's not enough cold air in place to keep this from being mostly rain (the cold high will be too far east to lock cold air in here, as it'll be off the Canadian coast), although a track like that would likely bring a few more inches of snow. A more inland track and all rain is also a low probability.

There is also the chance of some pretty high winds with the Mon/Tues storm (could see high wind advisories, even inland), as well as minor to moderate urban and small stream flooding, as reservoirs and rivers are pretty full, especially if we get more than 2" of rain which is a decent possibility.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

 

[mildone]

The pussies (@mildone) that run our Sunday morning soccer matches cancelled due to the cold. :>)

I wasn't even playing this weekend anyway so my views on the cold had nothing to do with my decision to cancel this week. I've played in even colder weather in the past and would've been happy to have played in this weather had I been able to.

But sure, otherwise, I'm a total pussy.

 

[bac2therac]

Seriously, why should people care about preparing for the cold when they have so many more important things to worry about ... like how bad the Super Bowl halftime show was compared to 37 years ago.

Another creepy stalker

 

[bac2therac]

My bad on saying everyone got 3-5" in the 2/5 storm - meant to say 2-5" (which is what I said in the original post-mortem). However, people on AmericanWx reported 2.5-3.0" from places like Hillsborough (2.5" in the NWS report), Somerville and Bridgewater, so not sure your measurements were timely/accurate. Plus, the point was, even for you, who seemed to have gotten the least snow out of anyone in NJ, 2.5" in 5 days is well above normal (45" in a 90-day winter).



I dont recall any advisory for that monday non event..

And you're full of shit that "all I do is say it might snow and it might not. I usually offer up "likely" and "unlikely" scenarios and sometimes even give an estimated probability, but I rarely make absolute 0%/100% statements when there are 10-20% probabilities of an outcome. In fact on this thread (page 2), I looked at the model output for the 0Z suite and predicted the NWS would raise their accumulations and issue advisories in their next package - which they did 4 hours later.

Of course, I didn't "predict" the blizzard - nobody really did, as the move north was only seen by the NAM in advance and nobody trusted it, for good reason. But I didn't say a major/historic storm wasn't going to happen, like you and others did. And storm 1 was a bust for eastern Jersey - when advisories for 1-3" get issued and not a flake falls, that's a bust. We agree on the 2nd storm being a big bust - and on both, I kept saying there was big bust potential, which I don't do if I'm confident the NWS has it right. .

And I don't care that much about all of this, as it's a friggin' message board and people argue. What did annoy me in this thread, though, were your comments early in the thread that I should change the thread title and later when you were saying the cold wasn't going to verify. Everything in my initial post/thread title verified, but you can't find it in yourself to admit that for some reason. Why is that?

Lastly, for this storm, as I've said, it's most likely 90% rain for the I-95 corridor, but there's a modest chance of a few inches of snow on the front end (NWS mentions this, especially for western portions of our area), which will then get quickly washed away by 1-2" of rain and temps reaching 50F or so. Our difference there is you say "no snow" which you know could be wrong.

For other readers, there is the chance of some pretty high winds with the Mon/Tues storm (could see high wind advisories, even inland), as well as minor to moderate urban and small stream flooding, as reservoirs and rivers are pretty full.

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

Winter almost over and RU#'s will go with it. :joy:

 

[FanuSanu52]

Another creepy stalker

Yeah, dude, I've responded to you twice in a week ... creepy!

If you don't want people responding to you multiple times, you could always, you know, not make 1,000 posts a day.

 

[bac2therac]

Yeah, dude, I've responded to you twice in a week ... creepy!

If you don't want people responding to you multiple times, you could always, you know, not make 1,000 posts a day.

Millenial butthurt

 

[FanuSanu52]

Millenial butthurt

Middle-aged geezer chronic diarrhea of the mouth.

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

It took 5 screens for this to become fun..

 

[RU848789]

I dont recall any advisory for that monday non event.

See page 4, post 145: "NWS in Philly finally did decide to go with a WWAdvisory for 1-3" of snow this morning/afternoon for Middlesex (really just the eastern half or even third, but they don't have halves), Monmouth and Ocean Counties (really just the parts within 10-15 miles of the coast). NWS in NYC also issued advisories for NENJ and continued them for NYC for 2-3" of snow today. Major bust potential, given the storm may not throw that much moisture that far inland and that temps will be in the 33-34F range, so accumulation will be difficult with light to moderate snow."