Some snow, a little freezing rain, then warmer with lots of rain 2/15-2/16

[RU848789]

Back to the weather. Wind chill advisories are up for the region for -10 to -20F wind chills Sat night and Sunday, with air temps Sunday morning likely falling to close to 0F, even in the big cities (and -5 to -10F in the colder suburbs). Could also see a dusting to 1/2" in spots in snow showers tonight. The pussies (@mildone) that run our Sunday morning soccer matches cancelled due to the cold. :>)

For the Mon/Tues storm, it's likely a mostly rain event for the region, but could start out as snow for several hours Monday afternoon/evening, leaving an inch or two of snow, especially the further west one goes, given a likely track just inland of the coast; areas well N/W could get several inches on the front end, but should change to plain rain there, too; freezing rain is looking unlikely, given the vertical thermal profiles. Even if the track is off the coast, it's likely there's not enough cold air in place to keep this from being mostly rain (the cold high will be too far east to lock cold air in here, as it'll be off the Canadian coast), although a track like that would likely bring a few more inches of snow. A more inland track and all rain is also a low probability.

There is also the chance of some pretty high winds with the Mon/Tues storm (could see high wind advisories, even inland), as well as minor to moderate urban and small stream flooding, as reservoirs and rivers are pretty full, especially if we get more than 2" of rain which is a decent possibility.
http://www.weather.gov/phi/

Looks like record breaking cold overnight for some locations, with wind chill advisories for most and warnings north of about I-80 (also a wind advisory for gusts up to 45 mph). Here are some predicted lows vs. records:

STATION......RECORD/FORECAST MIN FOR 2/14

CENTRAL PARK.....2 (1916) / 0
LAGUARDIA........1 (1979) / 1
KENNEDY..........4 (1979) / 2
ISLIP............7 (2015) / 1
NEWARK...........0 (1979) / 0
BRIDGEPORT.......3 (2015*) / -2
TRENTON............0 (1979) / 0
PHILADELPHIA....2 (1979) / 2

With regard to the storm, the main energy should be on shore in the Pacific NW tonight, so hopefully we'll get a better handle on the track of the storm tonight and tomorrow. Right now the NWS in Philly is calling for a track just east of the Apps/Poconos, while the NWS in NYC is calling for a track just inland of the coast.

That's why the NWS in NYC is predicting more front end snow on Monday (you can see it on the maps at the boundary counties) with 1-2" along/near I-95 for NYC/NENJ/LI and 2-4" for Bergen/Passaic and the Hudson Valley/CT, before a changeover to heavy rain for all by Monday night (early Tuesday well N/W), with 1-2" of rain likely.

NWS-Philly is calling for an inch or less of snow from I-95 to the coast (from Philly to Woodbridge and points S/E of that line), 1-2" about 10-20 miles NW of I-95, then 2-4" for the Lehigh Valley, Poconos and NW NJ (Morris, Sussex, Warren and NW Hunterdon), again with a changeover to 1-2" of rain for all by Monday night or early Tuesday well inland.

There could be a period of freezing rain well to the NW of I-95 (the areas possibly getting 2-4" of snow), but freezing rain is very unlikely anywhere near I-95 to the coast, although freezing rain is difficult to predict and if the air temp warms up much faster than the ground temp (not currently forecast), there could be some surface icing almost anywhere. In addition if we get 2" or more of rain, which is possible, we could see some minor to even moderate stream/river flooding, especially with the frozen ground not allowing infiltration.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

 

[RULoyal]

I understand it's cold but watching the network news this morning you would think if you stuck your head outside for any amount of time at all it would freeze solid and fall off. Although this probably has a lot to do with the alarming increase in lack of common sense I observe daily. Some window licker in NY city will go out shopping wearing just a windbreaker and get frostbite then scream why didn't someone warn me.

 

[bac2therac]

I understand it's cold but watching the network news this morning you would think if you stuck your head outside for any amount of time at all it would freeze solid and fall off. Although this probably has a lot to do with the alarming increase in lack of common sense I observe daily. Some window licker in NY city will go out shopping wearing just a windbreaker and get frostbite then scream why didn't someone warn me.

Exactly..later today and tomorrow will be cold but the cold the past two days was garden variety yet the media hyped things up. Its really only 36 hours of extreme cold...it wasnt that cold up to this point

 

[RU848789]

Looks like record breaking cold overnight for some locations, with wind chill advisories for most and warnings north of about I-80 (also a wind advisory for gusts up to 45 mph). Here are some predicted lows vs. records:

STATION......RECORD/FORECAST MIN FOR 2/14

CENTRAL PARK.....2 (1916) / 0
LAGUARDIA........1 (1979) / 1
KENNEDY..........4 (1979) / 2
ISLIP............7 (2015) / 1
NEWARK...........0 (1979) / 0
BRIDGEPORT.......3 (2015*) / -2
TRENTON............0 (1979) / 0
PHILADELPHIA....2 (1979) / 2

With regard to the storm, the main energy should be on shore in the Pacific NW tonight, so hopefully we'll get a better handle on the track of the storm tonight and tomorrow. Right now the NWS in Philly is calling for a track just east of the Apps/Poconos, while the NWS in NYC is calling for a track just inland of the coast.

That's why the NWS in NYC is predicting more front end snow on Monday (you can see it on the maps at the boundary counties) with 1-2" along/near I-95 for NYC/NENJ/LI and 2-4" for Bergen/Passaic and the Hudson Valley/CT, before a changeover to heavy rain for all by Monday night (early Tuesday well N/W), with 1-2" of rain likely.

NWS-Philly is calling for an inch or less of snow from I-95 to the coast (from Philly to Woodbridge and points S/E of that line), 1-2" about 10-20 miles NW of I-95, then 2-4" for the Lehigh Valley, Poconos and NW NJ (Morris, Sussex, Warren and NW Hunterdon), again with a changeover to 1-2" of rain for all by Monday night or early Tuesday well inland.

There could be a period of freezing rain well to the NW of I-95 (the areas possibly getting 2-4" of snow), but freezing rain is very unlikely anywhere near I-95 to the coast, although freezing rain is difficult to predict and if the air temp warms up much faster than the ground temp (not currently forecast), there could be some surface icing almost anywhere. In addition if we get 2" or more of rain, which is possible, we could see some minor to even moderate stream/river flooding, especially with the frozen ground not allowing infiltration.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

Central Park just set a new record of 1F vs. the old record of 2F and Newark is at 2F vs. the record of 0F, so not clear if they'll make it, while Philly is at 10F vs. the record of 2F, so they're way off; same for Trenton at 4F vs. the record of 0F. Watertown NY set its all-time Feb record at -37F. Boston shattered its cold record, reaching -9F so far this morning, as did Hartford at -7F. And it's 1F at our house in Metuchen...

Edit - at 6:57 am Central Park hit -1F - coldest temp since Jan-94 and Newark hit 0F, tying their record for the date.

With regard to the storm, updated maps are above, but these are a compromise consensus, as the model spread is way larger than normal for being 42 hours before the precip starts (7 pm model inputs last night), with tracks ranging between west of the Apps to right along the coast, so these maps and the description below are likely to change.

NWS forecast is for a general 1-2" of snow near I-95 on Monday afternoon into the evening with less towards the coast and 2-4" well inland, before the changeover to heavy rain with 1-2" of rain likely for everyone, although there could be up to 1/4" of freezing rain Monday night in locations well to the NW of I-95 (Lehigh Valley, Poconos, NWNJ, Hudson Valley). Freezing rain is unlikely along the I-95 corridor and the coastal plain.

Edit: here are the NWS-NYC records which were set/tied for every major climate site...

 

[Abro1975]

I just came in from walking the dog, thermometer read -3, when walking into the wind, holy cow was it friggen cold ! lol

 

[RocktheRac]

National Weather Service has just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Somerset County for Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain/Rain for 9am Monday thru 2am Tuesday.


Snow starting mid/late Monday morning. Snow accumulating 2 to 4 inches of snow thru the day then changing to prolonged period of freezing rain with accumulations of 1/4 inch of ice. Then Tuesday morning changing to all rain. Dangerous driving conditions will exist. Stay tuned.

 

[RU848789]

NWS just issued Winter Weather Advisories for counties along and NW of I-95 for tomorrow for 1-2" of snow along I-95 and 2-4" of snow to the NW of there and a possible 0.1 to 0.25" of freezing rain before the changeover to heavy rain for all (1-2" of rain). The Monday evening commute could be a mess. Still a fair amount of uncertainty in this forecast, though, as trying to time the changeover and how much freezing rain will fall is extremely difficult.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

 

[Knight Shift]

PLEASSSSSSSE ---Can we start a new thread for the WARM SNAP? Our of deference to numbers, I don't want to do it. @e5fdny, me and many others would be most grateful for a new thread. We love your threads numbers, but one threads spanning multiple events is hard to deal with many of us. Respectfully submitted. . . . . . .

 

[RU848789]

PLEASSSSSSSE ---Can we start a new thread for the WARM SNAP? Our of deference to numbers, I don't want to do it. @e5fdny, me and many others would be most grateful for a new thread. We love your threads numbers, but one threads spanning multiple events is hard to deal with many of us. Respectfully submitted. . . . . . .

Thanks, but I'd say just go ahead, as I have no interest in warm weather, so feel free to start your own thread. I only care about wintry weather really and since the run-up to tomorrow's event is all in this thread, it just makes more sense to continue posting in this thread through the event, which should really only be a few more posts (my apologies to those who would rather there be a new thread). It's not that big of a deal of an event IMO, as predictions of freezing rain in this area are almost always overdone and a couple of inches of snow won't shut the state down, but it's worth raising awareness, just in case we do get the freezing rain. There's no real wintry weather coming up for awhile (maybe next weekend, but if something materializes for that, I'll start a new thread).

 

[zappaa]

Sorry numbers,
I hope the heavy rain washes away all the snow we get. After Feb 15th you just can't get around the fact historically temperatures usually begin to rise around here.

 

[RU848789]

Sorry numbers,
I hope the heavy rain washes away all the snow we get. After Feb 15th you just can't get around the fact historically temperatures usually begin to rise around here.

Any snow we get will be easily washed away by Tuesday morning everywhere, even well to the N/W, with 1-2" of rain and temps in the upper 40s to low 50s.

 

[Knight Shift]

Any snow we get will be easily washed away by Tuesday morning everywhere, even well to the N/W, with 1-2" of rain and temps in the upper 40s to low 50s.

[banana]

 

[bac2therac]

Well potential Is there for a rough commute home. Im concerned that its been so cold that even at 34-35 we might have freezing rain for a longer period especially in northern sections

 

[RU848789]

NWS just issued Winter Weather Advisories for counties along and NW of I-95 for tomorrow for 1-2" of snow along I-95 and 2-4" of snow to the NW of there and a possible 0.1 to 0.25" of freezing rain before the changeover to heavy rain for all (1-2" of rain). The Monday evening commute could be a mess. Still a fair amount of uncertainty in this forecast, though, as trying to time the changeover and how much freezing rain will fall is extremely difficult.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

Worth highlighting a few things. For areas near and NW of the NJTPK (from Philly to NYC), temps will be in the low/mid 20 during morning and early afternoon, rising through the 20s, but not getting above 32F until early/mid evening, meaning the 1-2" of snow that could fall during the afternoon will accumulate on all surfaces (especially since surface temps will be quite cold).

Then comes the very tricky part. For most of the I-95 corridor, temps are likely to go above 32F around 7-9 pm (from SE to NW, generally). The problem is that the ground has been so cold that if the snow in mid-levels of the atmosphere melts on its way down and it's still below 32F at the surface, we'll get freezing rain.

Actually, this is where getting an inch or two of snow could be a saving grace for travelers, as the freezing rain would simply be absorbed into the snow, whereas if we get little snow, the freezing rain could simply coat all cold surfaces, forming skating rinks, especially on untreated/lightly traveled surfaces, as the freezing rain is predicted to be after dark, so the indirect sunlight won't provide any melting. The freezing rain shouldn't last more than 1-2 hours in most locations, but travel could be tough during that time.

 

[RU848789]

No real change in the forecast or major changes in tonight's models, so far. Just thought it was worth posting what I think is a cooler snowfall graphic from the NWS national office, as it shows the whole region (just wish the colors had more contrast - you make it yourself from the digital.weather.gov site). Not sure if it'll show properly, though.

http://digital.weather.gov/

 

[Knight Shift]

No real change in the forecast or major changes in tonight's models, so far. Just thought it was worth posting what I think is a cooler snowfall graphic from the NWS national office, as it shows the whole region (just wish the colors had more contrast - you make it yourself from the digital.weather.gov site). Not sure if it'll show properly, though.

http://digital.weather.gov/

LOL. Connect the dots? But Oddly, when I quoted you, it showed up!

 

[RU848789]

LOL. Connect the dots? But Oddly, when I quoted you, it showed up!

No, I edited the post, deleting the unconnected dots graphic and posting a different version which seemed to work - another annoyance of the new site is it doesn't really show when one has edited a post...

 

[Knight Shift]

No, I edited the post, deleting the unconnected dots graphic and posting a different version which seemed to work - another annoyance of the new site is it doesn't really show when one has edited a post...

Yeah, I see it now in your post. The other one left a lot to the imagination.

 

[Knight Shift]

A lot of people are off from work tomorrow. I did not realize until someone informed me that our office is closed tomorrow.

 

[RU848789]

NWS just issued Winter Weather Advisories for counties along and NW of I-95 for tomorrow for 1-2" of snow along I-95 and 2-4" of snow to the NW of there and a possible 0.1 to 0.25" of freezing rain before the changeover to heavy rain for all (1-2" of rain). The Monday evening commute could be a mess. Still a fair amount of uncertainty in this forecast, though, as trying to time the changeover and how much freezing rain will fall is extremely difficult.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

As you can see by the NWS graphic, the entire area is now under advsories. Normally advisories wouldn't be issued for 1-2" of snow/sleet (predicted amounts from I-95 and points S/E of there), but given the cold temps before the changeover to rain and the chance for a light glaze of freezing rain (up to 0.1"), they issued advisories.

The time when temps are predicted to go above 32F is reflected in the end time for the advisories. For counties S/E of I-95 (basically South Jersey from Salem to Monmouth and SE of there), the advisories end at 4 pm near the coast to 10 pm near I-95. NW of the I-95 corridor, the advisories end at 1 am and for Poconos/Sussex the advisories end at 4 am. Obviously, the exact time when temps go above 32F is a continuum from SE to NW, such that, for example, Belmar might go above 32F at 4 pm, Old Bridge at 6 pm, Edison at 8 pm, Chester at 11 pm and Newton at 2 am .

 

[RU848789]

Below is the latest email update, which I usually only do daily. Some repeat info from the posts above. Updated snow maps are in posts above, new ice maps are below, and links to the maps are below. Be careful out there...

NWS updated their Winter Weather Advisories to include essentially all of NJ, eastern PA, NYC/LI, and the Hudson Valley. Most areas will only be receiving an inch to maybe two inches of snow (except for 2-4” well to the N/W of the I-95 corridor) before a changeover to sleet and then, briefly, freezing rain. Normally advisories aren’t issued for <2” of snow – the advisories are in place for the threat of up to 0.1” of freezing rain, which is the most dangerous winter precip. The afternoon rush hour could be very slippery for areas from I-95 and N/W of there, as temps will still be below 32F and any snow/sleet will accumulate on untreated surfaces. Details…


· For counties to the S/E of I-95, i.e., most of South Jersey from Salem to Monmouth and SE of there, predictions are for about an inch of snow/sleet during the day, followed possibly by a brief period of freezing rain, before temps go above freezing in the mid/late afternoon and then temps will rise rapidly into the 50s by Tuesday with 1-2” of rainfall.

· For counties along the Delaware River/I-95 from Wilmington to NYC, predictions are for about 1-2” of snow/sleet followed by a brief period of freezing rain (up to 0.1”), before temps go above freezing in the early/mid evening and then temps will rise rapidly into the 50s by Tuesday with 1-2” of rainfall.

· For counties to the N/W of I-95, i.e., NW Chester/Montco/Bucks, the Lehigh Valley, Somerset/Hunterdon, Warren, Morris, Bergen, Passaic, predictions are for about 2-3” of snow/sleet (with 3-4” amounts for the Poconos, Sussex, and the Hudson Valley), followed by a period of freezing rain (around 0.1”), before temps go above freezing in the late evening/early Tuesday morning and then temps will rise rapidly into the 40s/50s by Tuesday with 1-2” of rainfall. There is enough warm air coming in with this storm to send temps above freezing all the way to the Canadian border.

Still a fair amount of uncertainty in this forecast, though, as trying to time the changeover and how much freezing rain will fall is extremely difficult. Freezing rain is usually overestimated, but given the extremely cold antecedent air mass and cold ground temps and the timing for the changeover for most to be after sunset, a light glaze of freezing rain is a real risk for places from I-95 and NW of there. The snowfall prior to this could be a saving grace for travelers, as the freezing rain will mostly be absorbed by the accumulated snow rather than coating the bare surfaces, but any untreated bare surfaces could become very icy.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/
http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

 

[RU848789]

We're definitely into nowcasting and latest reports from southern DE/MD indicate 2-3" already on the ground there and warnings have been issued for 4-6" (same for DC). Doesn't necessarily mean our snowfall predictions should be increased, as it hasn't reached here yet (and likely won't until after lunch; earlier dustings don't "count" per se) and they got "extra" snow due to unanticipated intensity, which may not happen here, but it certainly shows the potential with this storm, especially since it also might be a little harder to dislodge the cold air in place than is being modeled. Radar indicates accumulating snow at the PA/MD border across to about southern LBI.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SOME REPORTS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE INDICATE THAT 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN WITH MORE ON THE WAY, AND THEREFORE WE ARE
UPGRADING SUSSEX /DE/, AND CAROLINE AND TALBOT COUNTIES TO A
WARNING. WE ALSO ADDED MORE OF A TRANSITION ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES AS ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT OCCURS WITH MORE OF A LAG
IN THE WARMING AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN
PLACE, DESPITE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LATER SOME ICING SHOULD OCCUR
EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING GIVEN RATHER
COLD SURFACES.

 

[DJ Spanky]

So what's it gonna look like for the Tuesday morning commute?

 

[RU848789]

So what's it gonna look like for the Tuesday morning commute?

Just wet, unless you're north of 84 and even there it should get into the 40s by Tuesday mid-morning. Supposed to go above freezing even in Sussex County by 4 am

 

[RU848789]

Radar indicates accumulating snows have made it north of 195 and are just about up the Raritan and should be up to 78 by 3 pm or so; have had very light "pixie dust" snow here for an hour or so - have a dusting. Next few hours could get a little ugly (until maybe 10 pm in Central Jersey, when it should make it above 32F).

 

[RocktheRac]

Snow has been ripping in Hillsborough and Bridgewater the past hr. I think we get 3 to 5 until it warms by 10pm

 

[Rutgers1976]

Moderate snow coming down now in Clark. Just starting to cover things.

 

[BigLou]

#'s - question. When is the rain supposed to letup? My wife and daughter are flying back from Orlando tomorrow - leaving there at 5:45 and scheduled to land here around 8:30. I have to think there will be delays, especially since the plane is flying from Newark to Orlando earlier in the day. Just hoping the storm pushed through before they land and that they get a relatively smooth flight.

 

[RU848789]

#'s - question. When is the rain supposed to letup? My wife and daughter are flying back from Orlando tomorrow - leaving there at 5:45 and scheduled to land here around 8:30. I have to think there will be delays, especially since the plane is flying from Newark to Orlando earlier in the day. Just hoping the storm pushed through before they land and that they get a relatively smooth flight.

AM or PM? AM will definitely be in the 40s and pouring rain and PM will still be raining, although it'll be starting to taper off by then, with temps in the 50s. Will be windier in the pm (20-30 mph gusts up through 5-6 pm, but subsiding, hopefully, by when they land).

 

[RU848789]

Radar indicates accumulating snows have made it north of 195 and are just about up the Raritan and should be up to 78 by 3 pm or so; have had very light "pixie dust" snow here for an hour or so - have a dusting. Next few hours could get a little ugly (until maybe 10 pm in Central Jersey, when it should make it above 32F).

Started snowing moderate to heavy in Metuchen around 2:15 pm, according to my wife and the radar and started mod/heavy in Rahway, 9 miles to the NE, around 2:25 pm. Obviously at 23-24F everything is sticking well. Wife said we got an inch in Metuchen and we have 3/4" here at work in Rahway as of 3:15 pm. Still 23-24F. Pretty snowfall/snowflakes - too bad it'll all be washed away...

 

[RU848789]

NWS in Philly just put out an updated snowfall map, reflecting the greater snowfall which has already been observed and is now expected area wide. Basically 2-4" for most of NJ and eastern PA, with the 4" amounts more towards the NW, inland of I-95 and the 2" amounts more towards the immediate coast. Most places should see a solid 2-3" before the changeover to sleet, then a brief period of freezing rain, then plain rain. The amount of ice accretion is predicted to be up to 0.1" almost statewide and for all of eastern PA/NYC/LI, with only areas way NW possibly getting up to 1/4" of ice.

The changeover has begun in Cape May/Atlantic counties, especially near the coast. For the I-95 corridor expect a change to sleet by 7-9 pm, then expect a change to a brief period of freezing rain by around 9-10 pm (with maybe 0.1" of ice accretion), then plain rain with temps above 32F and temps reaching the 40s before dawn. Afternoon rush hour, as has been discussed, is likely to be a bit of a mess, although the holiday will help keep it from being the mess it could've been. The Tuesday morning rush hour should be just wet with temps above 32F everywhere south of I-84 before dawn. Still could have some urban/stream flooding Tuesday with 1-2" of rain on top of the snow that has fallen and is still on the ground in some places (all melting with temps in the 40s-50s everywhere on Tuesday).

 

[DJ Spanky]

We're getting significant snow now here in Wayne. Just was out for a drive - roads are pretty slick.

 

[RU848789]

No major changes to the forecast. Now it's just waiting for the sleet, then freezing rain, then rain. Sleet appears to be up to the I-195 area, as per the dual-pol radar, as there's warm air nosing in aloft, melting the falling snow, which is then refreezing before it hits the surface. Should expect a few hours of sleet in most locations before the warm wedge is wide enough to produce freezing rain, where there's only a very shallow layer of cold air near the surface. And the freezing rain shouldn't last more than an hour or two in most locations (hence the max 0.1" freezing rain accretion).

Been working and haven't had a chance to measure - hearing reports of 1-1.5" in Central Jersey - doubt many places get more than 2" before the sleet hits - could get 1/2" of sleet on top.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12

 

[RUtix4me]

How do you post pictures directly from an Ipad here? I can post one from the tarmac at EWR

 

[RU848789]

Left work in Rahway, around 6:45 pm, right after it had changed to sleet and freezing rain. Measured 1.75" on the ground and it was 26F when I left.

Drove the 9 miles SW to Metuchen, down Route 1, which was slushy (and had a multi-car fender-bender with 2 lanes closed, but traffic was light enough there wasn't a big backup); side streets were snow covered and treacherous.

Measured 2.0" at home around 7:05 pm (thought we got a little more, just looking at the radar) and it was all freezing rain there and 27F. Just cooked steaks and noodles for the wife and me, ate and cleaned up. Just walked around outside and it's still ZR with maybe 0.05" of ice glaze on everything, but temp is up to 29F - pretty quick rise and I expect it to be above 32F by 9-10 pm.

The 2" brings me to 30" for the season. Pretty amazing for such a warm winter. Should all be gone by tomorrow morning, even the residual snow we had from the blizzard and the 4" event on 2/5 and the 1.5" on 2/10 (very shady property - we had about 1-2" left on 90% of our property). Oh well, will just have to start over, lol.

Amazing temperature gradient, mostly from east to west, instead of the usual SE to NW or even S to N. Temps 10 miles to my ESE are 35F and are up to 40F in parts of Monmouth County. It's 39F in Islip, JFK is 34F, Central Park is 29F, Newark is 27F, Morristown is 21F and Andover is 15F! And it's still 29-31F in Trenton, Philly and Wilmington, so being west is more important than north on this one.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Well, it's now turned to rain up here.

 

[RU848789]

Well, it's now turned to rain up here.

Freezing rain - it's 27F in Wayne...

 

[RU848789]

Just went outside and it's still below freezing, surprisingly, at 31F, but should be above 32F in the next hour. Serious 0.1" glaze on everything and as I was saying earlier, I think the snow on the ground was a saving grace, as the freezing rain has simply been absorbed into the snow, rather than falling on bare, cold surfaces and forming a layer of ice (like is on my car and some trees without snow on them).

NWS just issued freezing rain advisories for 0.1" of freezing rain for the I-95 corridor (advisory until midnight) and possibly more for areas to the NW of I-95 (advisory until 2 am), where temps will be slower to get above 32F. Temps should still be well above 32F by morning. I'd say we dodged a bullet with today's traffic being light due to the holiday and the freezing rain falling during the night time hours when less people are traveling and it not lasting till morning. Already in the mid-40s within 5-10 miles of the ocean and the mid-30s within 5-10 miles of the NJ TPK.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=freezing rain advisory

 

[AreYouNUTS]

How do you post pictures directly from an Ipad here? I can post one from the tarmac at EWR

Right click, copy, paste. Or insert the URL link into the picture icon above.

 

[RU848789]

I got 2 inches from storm 1 and less than an inch from the 2nd...half the state did likewise

Keep dreaming about a brief period of snow...we wont get 2-3 inches

Well we certainly got more than a brief period of snow, with a general 1-3" statewide and now extended icing. Would've been a much more impactful storm if it wasn't a holiday.

So,@bac2therac, can you at least now admit that my original thread title and initial post were pretty much spot on (and didin't need changing)? It said, on 1/30, "January thaw this week, followed by likely cold and possibly stormy conditions for next 1-2 weeks." And the post said, "making the next 1-2 weeks likely to be colder than normal, with several chances for precip, which means chances for snow (or mixed precip/rain, depending on timing)."

• January thaw? Check, was quite warm that week with temps hitting the 60s.
• Next 1-2 weeks colder than normal? Check, as the period from 2/4-2/15 was well below normal, featuring the coldest temperatures seen for many locations in the past 20+ years, with Central Park reaching below 0F for the first time since Jan-94.
• Several chances for snow? Check, as we got a general 2-5" in Central Jersey on 2/5, then a general inch or so on 2/10, then the 1-3" we got today (and we just missed that huge storm on 2/8). On average, that's probably about 6" over an 11-day period for most (we got 7"), which is way more than an average 11-day period, which would expect to see about 3" of snow.

And while it looks milder than normal for the next week or so, winter likely returns early next week, with a shot at a storm and then we usually have until about mid-March to get some more snow. I would actually think you'd love this winter: could be the warmest winter ever, but we got enough snow to plow so you can make that big donation to find a replacement for EJ, lol.