Some snow, a little freezing rain, then warmer with lots of rain 2/15-2/16
- Thread starter RU848789
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I have no intention of starting a new thread for a Day 7/8 threat, but I'm going to quietly keep an eye on the threat for 2/23-24, which is showing up in several models, including the Euro, still the best medium range model for snowstorms, by far (it consistently showed a major snowstorm for a week before the blizzard - it only "missed" on the late northward shift at the end, which is a small miss, meteorologically, as only the NAM saw that move at the end).
Since so many more people on these boards have picked up a little education in the past few years, I fully expect someone else to start a thread in the next day or so on this, although I'm hoping nobody does, as there are dozens of major snowstorms per year on at least one model run at 7-10 days (and few, obviously pan out), and if threads were started on all of these, I think that would really annoy a lot of folks. If nobody does and the threat is still there on Thursday, 12Z, about 5+ days before the storm's arrival, I'll start one then.
So, threat is still there. Looking likely that we'll have a significant winter storm, but not necessarily a major snowstorm, as the potential outcomes range from a cutter west of the Apps (all rain) to an inland runner east of the Apps (a bit of snow then mostly rain for I-95/coast, more snow inland, but still changing to rain - not too different from what we saw on Monday), to a coastal low going near the benchmark off shore (mostly snow and quite a bit of it), to a complete miss out to sea, with gradations in-between all those.
The cutter and the out to sea solutions are lower probability than the inland runner and/or coastal low. As I said above, if we have some good consensus sometime tomorrow on at least the storm hitting us and it not being all rain, I'll start a thread, as we'll be 5 days out tomorrow evening. They're talking about it in the general Feb thread on AmericanWx and the NWS has noted a major storm is possible and DT is gently honking, but not all in yet. As usual with these systems, expect major fluctuations until the main pieces of energy are over land (Sunday) and well sampled for better initial conditions for the models.
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47755-february-2016-forecastsdiscoobs/page-16?
well not if someone beats you to the thread
you did lay out all possibilities which covers the base. It may rain, it may ice, it may snow, it may be warm, it may be cold, it may be sunny, it may be cloudy
I was disappointed in the mets downplaying of Monday's event from snow to ice. The temps didn't fall like they were anticipating and there was prolonged and dangerous icing where even as late as 9AM there were icy conditions on sidewalks from freezing rain
you did lay out all possibilities which covers the base. It may rain, it may ice, it may snow, it may be warm, it may be cold, it may be sunny, it may be cloudy
I was disappointed in the mets downplaying of Monday's event from snow to ice. The temps didn't fall like they were anticipating and there was prolonged and dangerous icing where even as late as 9AM there were icy conditions on sidewalks from freezing rain
Read my post above - I refuse to start a winter storm thread more than 5 days out and I hope nobody else does either (it's not like football games, where we know we're playing in a week), but if someone does, I'll post to that thread.
With regard to my original post, I guess you just can't give me any credit. I thought I was very clear and it went exactly as I posted: warm for several days, then colder than normal for 1-2 weeks and plenty of chances for snow (it can be cold, but dry, too).
I honestly don't think the mets downplayed the event as much as they simply under-forecast the strength of the very cold air that was in place, especially for areas NW of I-95, even if the core of the high had moved off the Canadian coast and should've been easier to dislodge. It's very hard to predict that the freezing line will progress much more slowly than expected, despite very warm temps just a few miles away - extremely unusual for it to be 17F in Allentown, 25F in Somerville, 31F in Edison and 45F in Sayreville and yet also just 31F in Dover, DE. That's why they kept pushing the end time of the advisories back as one went further NW of I-95. I agree the TV stations didn't keep up with the threat for the most part. By the way, there was nowhere in NJ outside of Sussex County that was still around 32F at 9 am, although it does take some time to melt the ice with temps above freezing.
the pavement temps were so cold from previous days that it didn't matter that temps went above freezing. Sidewalks would refreeze even as we put salt to melt it. At our last place in Raritan is was a total sheet of ice on the sidewalk, we put our last salt down and left and said the hell with this, it was taking forever to melt
My guess too - from compulsive thread rater to unrelenting graphics paster...
Yep, cat's out of the bag now. Amy Freeze started with a teaser on the possible storm, then later talked about potential "wintry mix and accumulating snow, Tuesday into Wednesday"
2 questions about Amy Freeze:
1. Is that her real last name given she's a met?
2. Are her boobs real?....man they're huge....lol......if she was in another line of business, her last name could be...oh well....:)
1. Is that her real last name given she's a met?
2. Are her boobs real?....man they're huge....lol......if she was in another line of business, her last name could be...oh well....:)
That's her name, but she's not a professional, degreed meteorologist, which is why, I assume #2 got her the job.
Not sure why you are hating on her. Amy has a great personality and is really blowing up as of late getting a lot more airtime on ABC. She lost a ton of weight in the last 6 months which make her assets really stick out now. Also I don't recall if she has screwed any forecasts up anyhow and her work is probably done in consultation with Lee and Jeff.
Anyhow she has cerificates...are you going to be one of those and disregard because she only has a certificate, its not like she doesn't know the weather...and shes not a bimbo and your assertion she got the job because of her tits is insulting considering she has a masters from Penn.
From wiki.....She graduated from Jeffersonville High School in Jeffersonville, Indiana, in 1992.[4] A Mormon, she earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in communications from Brigham Young University, in Provo, Utah,[3] in 1995.[5][6] Freeze also received Bachelor of Science degree in geosciences from Mississippi State University in Starkville, Mississippi,[3][7] She has a master's degree from the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, writing her thesis on a concept she defined as "the Storm Water Action Alert Program," dealing with major cities and combined sewer overflows.[8
Freeze has certificate number 111 from the American Meteorological Society as a certified broadcast meteorologist – she was one of the first 20 women in the world to receive this certification. In addition, Freeze has her National Weather Association and American Meteorological Society Seals of Approval. She is a three-time National Academy of Television Arts and Sciences Emmy Award winner.[citation needed]
oh and as for the storm, the most recent runs of the models have rain or ots with some minor snows
Huge difference between a meteorology degree and a certificate, but that's a minor issue compared to the numerous mistakes she makes and general lack of depth in explaining complex situations (which you get from Lee and Jeff Smith). Similar to Lonnie Quinn in that repect.
I don't recall her making any mistakes. .and the general public just needs the basics and not a whole bunch of stuff they cant understand
She gets her info also from Jeff and Lee. It's not like she is Lonnie Quinn at all.
So what's going on the next week (weather-wise, smartasses!)? I need an update trying to schedule some things thanks!
Tango twos graphic covers it....and we cant talk about this storm or non storm until someone decides its time to start a new thread
Sorry, have seen her make several. Most recent one I recall was her talking about freezing rain pellets, which is flat out wrong - there's freezing rain, which is liquid which freezes on contact with surfaces at 32F or lower and there's sleet, which is ice pellets which form when melted snow, aloft, freezes into ice pellets when falling through a sub-32F layer. While it's possible she just misspoke, I've seen too many times where she made an error or gave a poor explanation to want to see her on TV. You may love her (obviously) - I don't.
Start a thread if you want - never said someone couldn't - just said I wouldn't and thought it was premature (which you usually do, too). Given what I've seen today, I'd be inclined to start one tonight, when I get back from a play we're going to see, since it's looking pretty good for wintry weather at least inland, if not at the coast, for this one. 0-60" sounds about right.
NUTS - gun to the head, best guess now is for a storm to cross the Gulf states and then turn up the coast from NC towards Nantucket, which would be a bit NW of the best snowstorm track for I-95. Would mean likely snow to rain (and maybe back to snow) for the I-95 corridor to the coast with a few to several inches of snow on the front end, followed by significant rainfall (starting late Tues night and lasting through late Weds). As one goes NW of I-95 snowfall amounts would increase, as the air will be just a bit colder - wherever it's all snow (Sussex/Poconos/Catskills/interior New England?) could get up to a foot.
Could be one of those typical mixed bag events that gives an inch to Belmar, 3" to NB (and most of I-95), 6" to Chester and 10" out at the Del Water Gap (assuming all snow there). But a major snowstorm for I-95 and the coast is still possible, as is an even rainier solution (all rain for the coast and even changing to rain up to the Poconos after some snow). However, the out-to-sea complete miss and the Lakes Cutter that brings rain to everyone are almost off the table. We're still 5 days out from the start of precip, so a lot can still change (which is why I said the last two outcomes were "almost" off the table).
Sorry, you're wrong, as they're very similar - neither have met degrees and both get their info from pros who toil behind the scenes and they're on TV because they're relatively photogenic and many people "like" them, not because of their weather expertise. Some people like that, I don't. Same thing with anchors - I much prefer anchors who were at least journalists at one point and not just attractive news readers. If you can combine both, great.
#'s - thanks. A friend at work was looking to book a weekend "getaway," to the Caribbean this weekend, but decided not to because it's "nothing but rain, everywhere, for the entire weekend." That's why I asked. We're looking Tuesday'ish for this even to start hitting then so thanks!
Will keep a watch on your forecast. Due to fly south late Wednesday afternoon for a long weekend. Hoping that there aren't any significant travel delays.
It's going to be very nice this weekend here, with temps in the 50s, so sticking around here wouldn't be a bad choice...
Its Amy Freeze time..and she is wearing a sexy scarlet and black Rutgers dress tonight:popcorn:
