We will be better, but will our record reflect it?

[LeapinLou]

Rutgers literally won every single toss up game last season to finish 7-6. Granted, with a break here or there, some of our losses could have gone the other way. But for the most part, any game where the spread was opponent -3 or less, we won. That is extraordinarily hard to pull off.

So next year our schedule has fewer (or perhaps no) guaranteed losses on it. But how likely are we to continue winning every toss up game? Could we be way better but still finish the regular season 6-6?

 

[Eagleton96]

Rutgers literally won every single toss up game last season to finish 7-6. Granted, with a break here or there, some of our losses could have gone the other way. But for the most part, any game where the spread was opponent -3 or less, we won. That is extraordinarily hard to pull off.

So next year our schedule has fewer (or perhaps no) guaranteed losses on it. But how likely are we to continue winning every toss up game? Could we be way better but still finish the regular season 6-6?

Generally I agree. On the other hand, we were a few breaks away from some big upsets also.

 

[Knight Shift]

The optimist in me says 10-2. Losing to two of UW, USC, Wisconsin or Va Tech.

The realist says 8-4, with losses to 3 of those 4 plus UCLA, Maryland or Nebraska.

Michigan State will be a wild card.

 

[scarletpumpernickl]

I agree that bad breaks could happen in close games. Our QB performance is hard to predict. One thing that helps RU win close games is the ability to kill the clock with the running game when they have a late lead.

 

[RUTGERS95]

we should be better and we should win more now that we've a guy under center than complete more than 50% of his passes. I don't think some of you realize the click is ticking, Greg absolutely needs to start playing for broke. Change is in the air, we need to be earn our part of it

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Rutgers literally won every single toss up game last season to finish 7-6. Granted, with a break here or there, some of our losses could have gone the other way. But for the most part, any game where the spread was opponent -3 or less, we won. That is extraordinarily hard to pull off.

So next year our schedule has fewer (or perhaps no) guaranteed losses on it. But how likely are we to continue winning every toss up game? Could we be way better but still finish the regular season 6-6?

I mean - we only played one close game all season. Michigan State. You could argue Miami ended with a one score margin but that’s not really how the game went down. Your argument applies to the 2014 season (we won 4 of 5 games that came down to the wire), not last year.

 

[yesrutgers01]

I mean - we only played one close game all season. Michigan State. You could argue Miami ended with a one score margin but that’s not really how the game went down. Your argument applies to the 2014 season (we won 4 of 5 games that came down to the wire), not last year.

LL referred to the spread, not the score

 

[mosito]

With an arguably easier schedule , I think that covers us being fortunate in some games.... that leaves us being better.. I think we win 2 more games for 8-4 and a bowl win

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

LL referred to the spread, not the score

When I think of a game that can go either way, I’m thinking of the score moreso than what Vegas thought before the game. Arguably if you win a bunch of games by 3, one or two calls could flip the outcome. That wasn’t the case last season.

 

[LeapinLou]

Howard
Akron
@VT
Washington
@Nebraska
Wisconsin
UCLA
@USC
Minnesota
@Maryland
Illinois
@MSU

While you should never assume anything, if we win the first two, we could go 5-5 the rest of the way and end up in a decent bowl at 7-5. Going 8-4 seems like a bit of a tall order and would require some bounces to go our way. But if we get significantly better on offense and avoid long-term injuries on defense, it's doable. For those thinking 9+ wins, I love the optimism. But I think we are so evenly matched with so many of these teams, that it's going to be hard to win all of them.

 

[RUGuitarMan]

With the new schedule, I think a 7-5 season would be very good, 8-4 would be outstanding. I see probable loses as Wash, @USC , @ Neb, Wisc. Tossup games as @VT, UCLA, @ Mich St , @md. Illinois, Minn at home are must wins with the Howard, Akron games. IMO, the game @VT and home against UCLA will be the key games regarding a winning season.

 

[Knight Shift]

 

[LeapinLou]

View embedded media

So this dude is predicting 10-2 with a chance at 11-1. Is it possible. Sure, primarily because we don't have to play Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Oregon. But again, I don't think it's realistic to say we will win every single game that is "winnable". I can make the counter argument that 10 of the games on the schedule are "losable".

Honestly, if we go 8-4, I'm going to be thrilled.

 

[yesrutgers01]

When I think of a game that can go either way, I’m thinking of the score moreso than what Vegas thought before the game. Arguably if you win a bunch of games by 3, one or two calls could flip the outcome. That wasn’t the case last season.

The point was more to games that were considered tossups- not that the outcome was a tossup until the final moment.
But all good. I get what you are saying

 

[RUBOB72]

If we only go 7-5 regular season this season it will definitely cause some to call for a regime change even if we won a bowl game.Still believe Schiano is either strangely too happy early in or he really has a good feeling.

 

[RUMorrisTech]

If we only go 7-5 regular season this season it will definitely cause some to call for a regime change even if we won a bowl game.Still believe Schiano is either strangely too happy early in or he really has a good feeling.

“Only go 7-5” we don’t have the luxury to demand anything more given the last decade of Rutgers football

 

[LeapinLou]

If we only go 7-5 regular season this season it will definitely cause some to call for a regime change even if we won a bowl game.Still believe Schiano is either strangely too happy early in or he really has a good feeling.

We are "ahead of schedule" with that 7-6 season last year. Had we gone 5-7, I think people would be thinking 7-5 would be a good season in 2024. But you are right some may have higher expectations, and that's fair.

I remember being extremely amped for the 1995 season only to lose the opener at Duke and finish with a losing record. It doesn't always go the way you hope/expect. I'm trying to manage my own expectations.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

The point was more to games that were considered tossups- not that the outcome was a tossup until the final moment.
But all good. I get what you are saying

I get it but then if we win easily the pre-game forecast wasn’t really relevant. It’s the close games where few fortunate bounces that could’ve gone the other way that could change a record drastically.

 

[LetsGoRUwrestling]

I would be surprised if we lost to Wahington at Home this year...They bring back Nobody from last year ...I'm sure they will be good but that's a Game we should Win

 

[Pils86]

Hate to be the dark cloud but won't we be underdogs in 8 of the 12 games? We will need very good qb play to get to 8 wins. The important thing is to make a bowl and keep momentum going.

 

[RUBOB72]

No we need to go 8-4 … 9-3 sorry 7-5?does not move the needle.

 

[Eagleton96]

Hate to be the dark cloud but won't we be underdogs in 8 of the 12 games? We will need very good qb play to get to 8 wins. The important thing is to make a bowl and keep momentum going.

We won’t be dogs if we win the first 4 games

 

[mosito]

The V-Tech game will shape our season. After starting 2-3 if I am not mistaken , they won a bowl game and many believe they just needed one more year.

Win away and our Washington game will have more fans and the team more confidence.

Lose that and we easily drop more toss-up games.

 

[Jimpeg]

feeling 7-5 with better qb play. and healthy 8-4...
Given we are not playing UM/OSU/Oregon/PSU and MSU/UW/UCLA with first year coaches 8-4 should be expected.....

Must win 5 of 6
Howard
Akron
Washington
Illinois
UCLA
Minnesota

Should win 1 of 2
@MSU
@Nebraska

Toss up need 1 of 4..VT and WISKY make the season
@VT
Wisconsin
@USC
@Maryland

 

[ecojew]

The game @ Wisconsin was a one-play game. Their pick 6 while RU was driving changed what could have been a 20-17 win into a 24-13 loss.

 

[ashokan]

The thing about last year was that the offense and defense were playing like reasonably well tuned machines overall - and they knew they were. When you're meshing with your other unit members its a different sense from just "being out there." Not every play was a work of art, but when they needed a play they had a reasonable expectation of getting enough of one to stay formidable. A corollary of that was that the OL got better as season went on despite playing the boss teams. An O-line playing better late was a cool thing and that should help a lot next season with returning pieces

 

[Plum Street]

We might have a lot of opt outs in the bowl game. Which is actually a good situation to be in.
That’s why we need to be in a playoff game :)

 

[RU#1fan]

The game at VT will be very telling.
They return the highest percentage of producing players from last year in all CFB.
Beat them and we are off to the races.

 

[Jimpeg]

The game @ Wisconsin was a one-play game. Their pick 6 while RU was driving changed what could have been a 20-17 win into a 24-13 loss.

not sure i would say a "one play game" when the pick 6 was in the first half...

 

[RUBOB72]

We left 2 games on the table last season and actually we could say 3 … in order to have that special season, change the program forever we need to have a better than 7 win regular season. Other schools somehow do that … a long time ago under this HC we did have that type of season and we all realize it could have been even more special. Some of us just have a feeling or so it seems. Schiano is different… coaches sound different…sure it’s early but that’s what we need.

 

[Shelby65]

we should be better and we should win more now that we've a guy under center than complete more than 50% of his passes. I don't think some of you realize the click is ticking, Greg absolutely needs to start playing for broke. Change is in the air, we need to be earn our part of it

Ha ha ha. What is it, 7 years left on his extension ? He ain’t going anywhere. His seat is ice cold, probably the most job security in the country. Brilliant job by Hobbs.

 

[RUScrew85]

I agree that bad breaks could happen in close games. Our QB performance is hard to predict. One thing that helps RU win close games is the ability to kill the clock with the running game when they have a late lead.

No it's not. There's a 90% chance it will be bad.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Ha ha ha. What is it, 7 years left on his extension ? He ain’t going anywhere. His seat is ice cold, probably the most job security in the country. Brilliant job by Hobbs.

not even remotely what I intimated

 

[Plum Street]

Yes . Our record will reflect it

 

[Shelby65]

not even remotely what I intimated

You said the clock is ticking on Schiano. Nothing could be further from the truth.

 

[Bilderberg_News]

It all depends on what we get at the QB position. Here's my QB/Win assessment.
2,200 To 2,500 yards, 18 to 24 TD Passes 500 yards rushing 9 to 13 TDs, 14 Ints or less - 8 wins 5 losses.
2,750 To 3,500 yards, 25 to 29 TD Passes, 500+ yards rushing 10 to 14 TDs, 12 Ints or less - 9-10 wins 3-4 losses.
4,000+ Yards, 30+ TD Passes, 600+ yards rushing 12+ TDs 9 Ints or less - 10 wins minimum 13 wins max. (Bowl)

 

[RUTGERS95]

You said the clock is ticking on Schiano. Nothing could be further from the truth.

no, again not even close to saying the clock is ticking on GS. Read that again

 

[Shelby65]

I would be surprised if we lost to Wahington at Home this year...They bring back Nobody from last year ...I'm sure they will be good but that's a Game we should Win

I think it’s a safe bet that UW will have a much better QB, so the smart money will be on the Huskies. Not a great team like this year, but still better than us.

 

[Shelby65]

no, again not even close to saying the clock is ticking on GS. Read that again

I did. Those were your words. You must not know what ‘The clock is ticking’ means.

 

[mosito]

Seems like he said the "click is ticking".

Maybe lots of website clicks... up votes, likes...