2/17 BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

[fluoxetine]

Syracuse has work to do so to the extent that any games do not get made up it would hurt them. If they played the two Louisville games + the four others on their schedule I would think 4-2 + 1-1 would be enough most likely (17-9 / 10-7, 1-7 Q1, 6-1 Q2)

If they only play 4 more games and the Louisville games are nixed then I would think they need 4 more wins total (including the ACC tourney)..

3-1 + 1-1 would put them at 16-8 (9-6) with Q1 1-6, Q2 5-1, Q3 7-1, Q4 3-0 => play in game (?)
4-0 + 0-1 ... 16-7 (10-5) Q1 2-4, Q2 4-2, Q3 7-1, Q4 3-0 => 11 seed (?)

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Syracuse has work to do so to the extent that any games do not get made up it would hurt them. If they played the two Louisville games + the four others on their schedule I would think 4-2 + 1-1 would be enough most likely (17-9 / 10-7, 1-7 Q1, 6-1 Q2)

If they only play 4 more games and the Louisville games are nixed then I would think they need 4 more wins total (including the ACC tourney)..

3-1 + 1-1 would put them at 16-8 (9-6) with Q1 1-6, Q2 5-1, Q3 7-1, Q4 3-0 => play in game (?)
4-0 + 0-1 ... 16-7 (10-5) Q1 2-4, Q2 4-2, Q3 7-1, Q4 3-0 => 11 seed (?)

Yes that sounds about right. But any combination of 4 (it wouldn’t matter who they got in the first round) and they certainly shouldn’t need to go to the ACC finals.

 

[bac2therac]

I really think you are judging them based on the ACC being a solid conference as in years past...sorry but beating Virginia Tech and North Carolina in the last game is not deserving of a bid

if you are in a major conference you actually have to beat tourney schools...multiple times

we are possibly hemming and hawing about Minnesota dropping out because they dont have road wins yet they have wins over two #1 seeds plus Iowa

 

[bac2therac]

In a normal year this is spot on, but if many of those opportunities don’t happen due to Covid cancellations won’t that impact the thinking process for the committee?

I mean it’s not really fair to say Cuse had tons of opportunities against the best and blew all of them when they won the only home opportunity they’ve had so far against a team projected to be in the field (VTech). Losses - @RU, @ VA, @ Clemson and @ UNC.

they lost at home to Pitt,

ten of of their 12 wins come from Q3 and 4...it is unheard of

 

[bac2therac]

meanwhile if a school like Wichita State beats Houston they automatically send Cuse even further down the pecking order. Right now Ga Tech has a better resume even with two awful Q3 losses

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

meanwhile if a school like Wichita State beats Houston they automatically send Cuse even further down the pecking order. Right now Ga Tech has a better resume even with two awful Q3 losses

Georgia Tech is bringing down the whole ACC with those 2 bad OOC losses. It’s hard to make up for those.

Wichita is absolutely still in the hunt as the win @ Miss is looking better every day.

 

[bac2therac]

they made up for it by beating FSU, Clemson, and UNC. Unfortunately they didnt win enough otherwise

 

[fluoxetine]

I really think you are judging them based on the ACC being a solid conference as in years past...sorry but beating Virginia Tech and North Carolina in the last game is not deserving of a bid

if you are in a major conference you actually have to beat tourney schools...multiple times

we are possibly hemming and hawing about Minnesota dropping out because they dont have road wins yet they have wins over two #1 seeds plus Iowa

The ACC is a mediocre power conference, on par with the Big East this year, but it isn't some historic disaster or anything. Last year's ACC wasn't any better.

Looking at Bartorvik conference ratings for the last five years:

Rank	Conference	Rating
1​	2017 Big 12	0.8964​
2​	2021 Big Ten	0.8823​
3​	2018 Big 12	0.8789​
4​	2017 ACC	0.8761​
5​	2018 Big East	0.8750​
6​	2019 Big 12	0.8715​
7​	2019 Big Ten	0.8700​
8​	2020 Big Ten	0.8636​
9​	2020 Big East	0.8565​
10​	2019 ACC	0.8563​
11​	2020 Big 12	0.8526​
12​	2019 SEC	0.8476​
13​	2018 ACC	0.8455​
14​	2017 Big East	0.8435​
15​	2018 Big Ten	0.8418​
16​	2018 SEC	0.8360​
17​	2021 Big 12	0.8348​
18​	2017 Big Ten	0.8332​
19​	2021 SEC	0.8230​
20​	2017 SEC	0.8168​
21​	2021 Big East	0.8055​
22​	2021 ACC	0.8051​
23​	2020 ACC	0.7906​
24​	2020 Pac 12	0.7864​
25​	2020 SEC	0.7754​
26​	2021 Pac 12	0.7745​
27​	2019 Big East	0.7615​
28​	2017 Pac 12	0.7559​
29​	2019 American	0.7371​
30​	2018 Pac 12	0.7241​
31​	2019 Pac 12	0.6827​

(I threw the 2019 American on there because they were better than the Pac 12 lol).

I mean when you look at it this way.. they are pretty bad. Especially since you could basically make the argument that the Pac 12 isn't really a power conference in basketball..

That said, the power conferences in general suck this year outside the Big Ten.. you've got the Big Ten at #2 on this list and then the next best conference is alll the way down at #17.


(This, by the way, is why I keep saying that schools like Iowa belong in the top 10 and Wisconsin is way underrated. And also why I think we are top 20 and not #27.)

 

[fluoxetine]

The American is an interesting conference. It's basically a tier of it's own.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

they lost at home to Pitt,

ten of of their 12 wins come from Q3 and 4...it is unheard of

I hear you - but if they finish strong their top 4-5 wins will still be materially better than any of the A-10, MVC and MWC bubblers (who also have tons of Q3 and 4 wins) and they won’t have many more losses because of what a weird year it is. Wins @ Duke and @ GTech would still be better than pretty much all of the quad 2 wins racked up by these teams. The Pitt losses aren’t really that bad when you see that teams like VCU lost at home to Rhode Island.

You are right that we don’t know what Wichita and other teams not currently on the radar will do, but that’s true for everyone.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I really think you are judging them based on the ACC being a solid conference as in years past...sorry but beating Virginia Tech and North Carolina in the last game is not deserving of a bid

if you are in a major conference you actually have to beat tourney schools...multiple times

we are possibly hemming and hawing about Minnesota dropping out because they dont have road wins yet they have wins over two #1 seeds plus Iowa

The top of the ACC is down, but the bottom of the ACC is considerably better than the bottom half of the A-10 or MWC. Boston College is awful for a major conference team, but they still beat Rhode Island on a neutral floor. Miami beat Purdue and while the FGCU loss counts in their numbers, they were out 2 starters almost the whole game.

 

[blockm2]

Syracuse's problem (IMHO) is their grand total of 2 Quad 2 wins (compared to 0-4 Q1) and 2-5 overall vs Q1 and Q2. I mean that is almost a total lack of wins against good competition. When KenPom ranks a win @ Boston College as one of your 3 best wins on the season you have a big problem.

 

[bac2therac]

its amazing this thread is being bogged down talking about a worthless Syracuse team

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Well at least Rutgers played Syracuse which makes it far more relevant than Colgate.

 

[kcg88]

Wichita State leading Houston. They're going to have to be penciled in for the autobid if they win.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

The AAC is a weird conference. I’m sure the math must work somehow but I dont follow why Drake and Loyola are getting so much more respect than their 4 loss schools

 

[bac2therac]

Wichita State leading Houston. They're going to have to be penciled in for the autobid if they win.

yep and I wonder how much Houston gets dinged in seeding...just cannot have them a 2, anymore.

 

[fluoxetine]

its amazing this thread is being bogged down talking about a worthless Syracuse team

Is it better than talking about what happens if Rutgers finishes 1-5?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

its amazing this thread is being bogged down talking about a worthless Syracuse team

I’d rather discuss the merit of Christian Albieliene. Or synthetic oil Valvoline

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Is it better than talking about what happens if Rutgers finishes 1-5?

Did you watch the 1st half?

 

[bac2therac]

Wichita State knocks off Houston and for now becomes the AQ from the American but will now be a bubble contender if they dont win the AAC tourney.

North Carolina after bouncing in yesterday now bounces back out.

RU holds firmly as the last 6 seed despite the loss. No penalty for losing by 7 at a #1 seed.

With the loss to Ohio State, Penn State is officially eliminated at least in my book from making the NCAA tourney as an at large.

UCLA got a needed win over Arizona

a couple of late night bubble games going on in the Pac 12...Colorado-Oregon and Stanford-Washington

 

[G- RUnit]

AAC was probably always going to get two teams in. If Memphis or SMU somehow win conference tourney they could get three in. Amazing thing is first time in a long time no Cincinnati.

Houston is good but over ranked as a #2 seed. Not sure a #3 is right either. I think a #4. If they are a #2 or #3, I want to be in that bracket. Wichita State is now trending well.

USC is good, UCLA wins. Those two are probably in. Rest of league is incredibly fun:
Stanford's last two games: USC and Oregon.
Colorado's last two games: USC and UCLA.
Oregon's last two games: USC and Stanford.
Good luck trying to distinguish them.

With no Duke, Kentucky and MSU, gotta think CBS will want UNC in somehow.

Watched BYU and it may be fool's gold but they meet the eye test. In all my years watching college hoops, i don't ever recall watching a home game from the University of the Pacific. Looks like one very cool old time band box arena. How many realize they are coached by Damon Stoudamire?

St. Louis might not want to lose to Dayton tonight.

Utah State at Boise State tonight. Seems unfair back to back at Boise.
Then agin to end the season Nevada is back to back at Utah State.
Feel for Utah State as end of year last year they were just like us and had a great player.
Also remember Bob Wenzel team playing them out there on ESPN at 1:00 in the morning.

Don't think loss last night hurt R seeding, in fact for eye test may have shown we are deserving.

PSU could win NIT if they get in. Curious to see where they go coaching wise. Ferry seems okay. Can he recruit? Will PSU spend money on a hoops coach?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Computer numbers don’t lie (except for Colgate), but they seem to undervalue the AAC this year. To me, having only 4 total losses playing in that conference (SMU / Wichita) is way more impressive than Loyola having 4 losses playing in the MVC.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

UCF isn’t even competitive in the conference. They beat Florida state and Auburn. It’s not a terrible conference.

 

[bac2therac]

AAC was probably always going to get two teams in. If Memphis or SMU somehow win conference tourney they could get three in. Amazing thing is first time in a long time no Cincinnati.

Houston is good but over ranked as a #2 seed. Not sure a #3 is right either. I think a #4. If they are a #2 or #3, I want to be in that bracket. Wichita State is now trending well.

USC is good, UCLA wins. Those two are probably in. Rest of league is incredibly fun:
Stanford's last two games: USC and Oregon.
Colorado's last two games: USC and UCLA.
Oregon's last two games: USC and Stanford.
Good luck trying to distinguish them.

With no Duke, Kentucky and MSU, gotta think CBS will want UNC in somehow.

Watched BYU and it may be fool's gold but they meet the eye test. In all my years watching college hoops, i don't ever recall watching a home game from the University of the Pacific. Looks like one very cool old time band box arena. How many realize they are coached by Damon Stoudamire?

St. Louis might not want to lose to Dayton tonight.

Utah State at Boise State tonight. Seems unfair back to back at Boise.
Then agin to end the season Nevada is back to back at Utah State.
Feel for Utah State as end of year last year they were just like us and had a great player.
Also remember Bob Wenzel team playing them out there on ESPN at 1:00 in the morning.

Don't think loss last night hurt R seeding, in fact for eye test may have shown we are deserving.

PSU could win NIT if they get in. Curious to see where they go coaching wise. Ferry seems okay. Can he recruit? Will PSU spend money on a hoops coach?

they are not getting 3 in and its not sure thing about 2 either despite the Wichita State win. If WSU drops another regular season game and then does not win the conference tourney, they will have 6 losses, their net only went up to 68 yesterday. Its very likely their only way as an at large is to win out the regular season. Very telling that Lunardi only put Wichita State as a 13 in his latest bracket.

 

[bac2therac]

Oregon knocked off Colorado to gain some separation from the last 4 in.

Minnesota actually has now dropped to the 11 line

Wichita State in as the AAC AQ and I have them seeded 12th knocking Cal St Barbara back to 13

North Carolina bounced out of the field

LAST 4 IN: SAINT BONAVENTURE, COLORADO STATE, CONNECTICUT, STANFORD
FIRST 4 OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, DRAKE, UTAH STATE, SAINT JOHN'S

 

[bac2therac]

2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

CBS Sports is helping you get ready for March Madness with the latest news, picks, and predictions for the 2022 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket.

www.cbssports.com

RU a 6 seed getting the winner of Drake/Boise State...getting Tennessee as the 3, I will take that..Illinois the 2

He has Seton Hall and Minnesota OUT..wow.....to be honest his seeding and selections of certain teams look completely odd right now gving UConn a 9..huh and St Bonnies a 10

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

they are not getting 3 in and its not sure thing about 2 either despite the Wichita State win. If WSU drops another regular season game and then does not win the conference tourney, they will have 6 losses, their net only went up to 68 yesterday. Its very likely their only way as an at large is to win out the regular season. Very telling that Lunardi only put Wichita State as a 13 in his latest bracket.

I agree. 3 is unlikely. I just think the computer numbers for the AAC seem under valued relative to the other mid-majors (MVC in particular).

 

[bac2therac]

Lunardi has RU a 7 playing 10 seed Xavier with Alabama the 2, I would sign on for this

Bracketology: v.1.0 with dozens of updates coming in the next 11 months

It should come as no surprise that UConn -- one of the most dominant teams in recent NCAA tournament history -- sits atop our first bracket for the 2023-24 campaign.

www.espn.com

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

CBS Sports is helping you get ready for March Madness with the latest news, picks, and predictions for the 2022 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket.

www.cbssports.com

RU a 6 seed getting the winner of Drake/Boise State...getting Tennessee as the 3, I will take that..Illinois the 2

He has Seton Hall and Minnesota OUT..wow.....to be honest his seeding and selections of certain teams look completely odd right now gving UConn a 9..huh and St Bonnies a 10

Well at least Palm is consistent in his treatment of teams that can’t win on the road.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

AAC wins OOC - TT, @ FSU, @ Ole Miss, @ Dayton, Auburn, st Mary’s (Neutral), Boise St (4 different schools)

 

[G- RUnit]

I just can't figure out why Houston is ranked so highly and Wichita so poorly. Amusing that Wichita is 6th luckiest team in the country.

 

[bac2therac]

I just can't figure out why Houston is ranked so highly and Wichita so poorly. Amusing that Wichita is 6th luckiest team in the country.

my thinking its the two close wins in Q4 games...Temple and Oral Roberts. I see decent losses to Missouri and OK State. I think there are flaws in the NET this year.

 

[King of S]

Do you give Winthrop an at large bid if they lose in conference tournament?

 

[bac2therac]

Do you give Winthrop an at large bid if they lose in conference tournament?

Likely no

 

[bac2therac]

St Louis got crushed by Dayton 76-53...their hopes on life support now

 

[King of S]

What about Memphis? Good resume.

 

[bac2therac]

What about Memphis? Good resume.

They haven't beaten anyone but Wichita State. This conference isn't getting 3.

 

[bac2therac]

Utah State loses to Boise State. Its becoming more likely the Aggies will now have to win the Mountain West Tourney to make the NCAA tournament

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Lunardi has RU a 7 playing 10 seed Xavier with Alabama the 2, I would sign on for this

Bracketology: v.1.0 with dozens of updates coming in the next 11 months

It should come as no surprise that UConn -- one of the most dominant teams in recent NCAA tournament history -- sits atop our first bracket for the 2023-24 campaign.

www.espn.com

Then that would take the fun out of the season from now until March 17th