3/2 BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

NewJerseyHawk

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There's no true way to assume Minnesota will pack it in, even if they lose to PSU...if you want to play a game against an opponent appearing to have nothing to play for, it is false and a bad perception to take.

If Minnesota wins at PSU, there will be zero exceptions or excuses that RU has a cold team in finale....and Marcus Carr by himself, eliminates any thoughts they will roll over, he can get 30 to 40 easily if you are not focused on defense.

I don't care if Minnesota wins or loses vs PSU....at some point, this is about how RU plays, not counting on some lifeless team, not playing with any intensity.....I have not seen any Minnesota game where they didn't compete or play hard....maybe they take bad shots, but I don't see it mattering for RU.....they need to play a full 40 minutes at Minnesota....
 

bac2therac

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MORNING UPDATE...


FIRST FOUR BYES: LOUISVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA, GEORGIA TECH, CONNECTICUT
LAST FOUR IN: XAVIER, BOISE STATE, DRAKE, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH

FIRST FOUR OUT: SETON HALL, SAINT LOUIS, UTAH STATE, MINNESOTA
NEXT FOUR OUT: DUKE, STANFORD, SYRACUSE, MISSISSIPPI
 

bac2therac

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I see the Louisville-Va Tech game was cancelled because of Covid tracing issues. This is a plus for Louisville to not actually have to play this game. They could have taken a loss and then if they lost to Virginia in the finale there would be concerns, I think now a loss to Virginia is not enough to put them in the doubting area yet.
 

bac2therac

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so there seems to be an unfair advantage given to San Diego State in the Mountain West. Headed for a possible tie with Colorado State for first, it looks like inexplicably the MWC is going to award SD St 2 games from its cancelled series with New Mexico as forfeits saying that it was not a covid issue and New Mexico opted out. The forfeits will not count in the win column or the Aztec 's resume, its for tiebreaking procedures...wtf.

So Colorado State will get screwed as in a normal tie breaker procedure they would have won the tiebreak. Their only chance now is that UNLV upsets San Diego State tonight

Colorado State still looks the best of the bunch of other bubbles with the Boise State loss last night

I will make adjustments to the situation in the Mountain West after tonights results which will land Colorado State probably into the first four byes from their current AQ position
 

jordkap

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There's no true way to assume Minnesota will pack it in, even if they lose to PSU...if you want to play a game against an opponent appearing to have nothing to play for, it is false and a bad perception to take.

If Minnesota wins at PSU, there will be zero exceptions or excuses that RU has a cold team in finale....and Marcus Carr by himself, eliminates any thoughts they will roll over, he can get 30 to 40 easily if you are not focused on defense.

I don't care if Minnesota wins or loses vs PSU....at some point, this is about how RU plays, not counting on some lifeless team, not playing with any intensity.....I have not seen any Minnesota game where they didn't compete or play hard....maybe they take bad shots, but I don't see it mattering for RU.....they need to play a full 40 minutes at Minnesota....
Game plan should be triangle and 2 if Robbins is out. The two guys on Carr since we don’t want him getting his.
 

koko2315

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There's no true way to assume Minnesota will pack it in, even if they lose to PSU...if you want to play a game against an opponent appearing to have nothing to play for, it is false and a bad perception to take.
Exactly, you would have thought Nebraska would have packed in too after Allen's departure. MN may play with a bigger chip on their shoulder
 

bac2therac

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Its a Quad 2 win for Syracuse. They will finish the season with no Q1 wins this was their final game. Looks like 8/9 game for them likely vs Duke but then vs FlaSt or Uva in quarter finals
 

RUfanSinceAnderson

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Its a Quad 2 win for Syracuse. They will finish the season with no Q1 wins this was their final game. Looks like 8/9 game for them likely vs Duke but then vs FlaSt or Uva in quarter finals
I’ll go back to H2H. We beat them. Wouldn’t that matter for last spot in? Same goes for IU. In no world (unless they win tourney) should they be in over us.
 

bac2therac

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At 13-12 nothing matters...the record tosses all the normal things out the window

If Cuse beats Duke and FSU in the ACC tourney they have a decent shot of dancing..whether they take ours or someone else spot is entirely up to Rutgers
 

bac2therac

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Costly loss for Maryland, I know some pundits already proclaimed them a lock but its much like the RU situation, MD came in 14-10..not 15-10 as the non division 1 game does not count for NCAA purposes, thus the danger for Maryland is losing the last 2 regular season and then in the first round Big 10..so they would be 14-13 similar to the RU 13-12 scenerio...so Maryland now has a pretty big game coming up with dangerous Penn State who is playing pretty loose right now

Oregon moves to first in the Pac 12 and grabs the AQ by beating UCLA. Oregon now solidly up to an 8 IMO. UCLA meanwhile with a barren resume as a big game with USC, if they do not win that they are near the last 6 in and need a Pac 12 tourney win to make sure they get an at large

San Diego State took care of UNLV and now become the AQ of the MWC and send Colorado State back to the at large field

Colorado State took care of business vs New Mexico to keep themselves on the good side of the bubble

Wichita State avoided a bad loss at Tulane and remains the AAC AQ and they will secure a regular season title with a win over USF Sunday.

Syracuse win over Clemson was huge as it moved the into serious contention since the bubble is so weak

UConn all but punched their ticket to the dance, a win over Gtown this weekend seals it no question. SHU meanwhile is really on life support, not sure a trip to the BE finals would get them in, will have to win it all.

Minnesota played their way out of contention by getting routed at Penn State, the only way they can even sniff the bubble is reaching the Big 10 finals.

Currently USC up big over Stanford in the first half, a loss for Stanford will pretty much eliminate them from bubble contention.
 
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RUfanSinceAnderson

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The B1G middle is all bunched now. If the conf is the “best ever” they better still put in 8-9 teams.
 

bac2therac

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so with Maryland, Rutgers and Michigan State....they all are one win away from clinching a bid. and its likely that 2 of them will meet in the Big 10 tourney. We are assured of 7, I think 8 and decent chance at 9.

the issue with each of them is what happens if they dont win again

MD 14-13
RU 13-12
MSU 14-13

obviously that scenerio will not happen to all 3 when the dust settles but take each case individually, they all are not locked because there is the potential for each to finish just one game over .500 which would create history if a school with a record like that is selected
 
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RUfanSinceAnderson

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so with Maryland, Rutgers and Michigan State....they all are one win away from clinching a bid. and its likely that 2 of them will meet in the Big 10 tourney. We are assured of 8, I think 9 and decent chance at 10.

the issue with each of them is what happens if they dont win again

MD 14-13
RU 13-12
MSU 14-13

obviously that scenerio will not happen to all 3 but take case individually, they all are not locked because there is the potential for each to finish just one game over .500 which would create history if a school with a record like that is selected
Would be super hypocritical. Best conf ever and only 6-7 teams. I’m sorry. We could have played in another conf and picked up lazy wins. Or we could have had games with Bryant, rider, St. Peter’s and NJIT and been 17-12– but protocol didn’t allow it. What about rewarding a team for making ALL its games.
 

bac2therac

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Would be super hypocritical. Best conf ever and only 6-7 teams. I’m sorry. We could have played in another conf and picked up lazy wins. Or we could have had games with Bryant, rider, St. Peter’s and NJIT and been 17-12– but protocol didn’t allow it. What about rewarding a team for making ALL its games.


actually I screwed up...we are sure for 7...pretty solid for 8 and decent for 9

the issue is the top was better and the middle was not as good. Minny and Indy tanked. RU is finishing similar to last year and still in the 8/9...remember we also didnt have non conference games which may have added to the Indy and Minny win total slightly

RU had the opportunity to schedule more games but didnt
 
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bac2therac

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What? It’s not even close. There are 4 elite teams in the conference this year.


better at the top not in the middle....its very saggy in the 6-11 spots..the level of play from Wisconsin, RU, Indiana and Minnesota the last few weeks can only be describe as poor and that is being generous
 
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RUfanSinceAnderson

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better at the top not in the middle....its very saggy in the 6-11 spots..the level of play from Wisconsin, RU, Indiana and Minnesota the last few weeks can only be describe as poor and that is being generous
Last week they said metric wise the conference rates the best of all time. I mean we played 6 games versus 1/2 seeds. Then add in Purdue and Wisc. No other conf is close.
 

patk89

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Agree that the middle of the B1G has struggled down the stretch but look at the bottom. Nebraska is playing good basketball. 3-5 in league since mid February with 2 losses to Illinois and 1 to Purdue. Northwestern, Minnesota, and Penn State all have talent. Is Minnesota the worst team right now? We will see soon. Every night is a battle unlike most conferences.
 
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RUfan1027

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Lunardi just dropped us to last four byes. Basically we are only a three spot dip to the first four round.
 

bac2therac

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yeah it sounds bad at first but the realization is that if RU beat Minnesota, they are dancing. If we lose we then move into the last 4 in, whether we can sustain another loss is up in the air but I would say probably not.
 
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Scarlet Blind

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Lunardi is good for teams in but horrible for seeds, we are not last 4 byes.

Houston might not getting a #3 seed
2018-19 At large AAC, Net #4, 3seed, 9th
31-3 Q1 6-3 Q2 11-0 4-0 Q4 10-0
#25 Cincy(28-6) was the AQ(a 7 seed), Q1 5-4 Q2 8-1, 1 Q4 loss

2020-21 Net #5, they aren't even #9 this year and no one in the AAC tournament can get them to 9, even with an auto bid.
19-3 Q1 2-1 Q2 4-1 Q3 9-1 Q4 4-0
They lost @ 115 Tulsa 9-11, @ 152 ECU 7-8
Q1wins N Vs 13 TTU, and @ 54 SMU 11-4
They had many more impressive wins 2 years ago. Houston looks more like a 4 or 5.
 
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Greene Rice FIG

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Exactly, you would have thought Nebraska would have packed in too after Allen's departure. MN may play with a bigger chip on their shoulder
Situation totally different

1. Nebraska got a boost from Teddy Allen being gone. Hijacker gone
2. Minnesota has been in the mix all year. If they lose to PSU and feel they are out a let done is probable.

What I don't know is the math behind what would be required of Minny is they lost to PSU. I'd think the RU game would still have value because that might not require them to win it all.
 

bac2therac

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If Minny beat Penn State, Rutgers, and Rutgers again they would be 16-12..16-13 with a loss to Michigan would dance and it would be Rutgers spot they would have taken
 

RUJMM78

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If Minny beat Penn State, Rutgers, and Rutgers again they would be 16-12..16-13 with a loss to Michigan would dance and it would be Rutgers spot they would have taken
Minnesota loss to Penn State which diminishes there chances for a NCAA bid.
 

fluoxetine

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Minny bricks threes at an even higher rate than we do and takes a lot more of them. They are very good at not turning the ball over. We should be careful not to gamble too much on defense.
 

RUtrumpet92

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Minnesota loss to Penn State which diminishes there chances for a NCAA bid.
They are 78th in NET rankings today with a .500 record (6 - 13 B1G) and zero road wins. They will be no better than the 11 seed in the B1G, which they get if they beat us Saturday and PSU loses to Maryland.

So their first B1G tournament opponent will be Nebraska if they finish 11th or Northwestern if they don't. Winning either would get them to 15-13 but not add a quality win. Their second opponent could be one of five teams (Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State, Purdue, or Maryland). They need that win too to have a shot. Going 15-14 with a net in the 70s and only a neutral site win over Nebraska or Northwestern is a weak overall resume despite the Michigan win.
 
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Greene Rice FIG

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Minny bricks threes at an even higher rate than we do and takes a lot more of them. They are very good at not turning the ball over. We should be careful not to gamble too much on defense.
We once made 7 out of 8 in a 8 minute stretch. Yatzhee’s can be had with 1 roll of the dice.
 
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fluoxetine

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I'm not entirely sure why, but our chance of making the tournament on Torvik spiked from like 55% to 96% in his most recent sim.

On the one hand, I like this.

On the other hand, I am rethinking how much I trust his model..
 
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bac2therac

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Lunardi just in.....

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