BACATOLOGY: NCAA ANALYSIS 2/14 UPDATE 2/19 ON PAGE 17

fatsam98

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And Oregon falls just short at Arizona. Not sure wtf they were doing on last possession, down 3 with 10 seconds left and travelled driving to the basket. Almost as bad as Auburn's last possession earlier.

Another great result for us. Great game too.
 

kcg88

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EXPECTED WINS: 9.03 in 17 games. Can't complain with 9-8. We're happy with 10-7 or better, or if it's the right 9-8 (or even 8-9). It's really bad if Oregon or TCU gets a top 5 road win. It's bad if BYU, West Virginia or Iowa gets a big ranked win. We'd really like San Diego State, BYU, and North Carolina to lose as they're all in the fielld but closest to the cut line at the moment. Those are the biggest ones I think.
Wound up at 8-9. The results from the Big 12 were great but with that conference things can flip very quickly.

Good finish out west with BYU and Oregon going down. Oregon's in rough shape but has three Q1 chances left. BYU's final two games are Q4 and won't move the needle. They are looking like they need to knock off San Francisco, St. Mary's, or Gonzaga in the WCC tournament.

Couldn't get the trifecta with San Diego State losing but that's alright.
 

kcg88

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Short Sunday post...

Memphis at SMU (53%) - It feels like whoever wins this is in the driver's seat for the second American bid. Right now Memphis is in and SMU is not so let's root for the Stangs.

Michigan at Wisconsin (61%) - Michigan could really solidify their spot with a road win. We'd prefer that not to happen.

Marquette (48%) at Creighton - The Blue Jays are almost universally Last 4 In.

EXPECTED WINS: 1.62. Let's hope for the Meatloaf special, 2 out of 3. But if we can only get one we hope it's Michigan or Creighton that loses, not Memphis.

Low stakes:

Wichita beating Houston would weaken the AAC. Missouri can drive the final stake through Mississippi State. Washington State has one last shot at a big win at USC. Missouri State at Northern Iowa has no bubble implications but it's for the MVC lead and should be a good game.
 

Scarlet Blind

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Interesting side note to the 9 place jump, Arizona was -12.5 over Oregon.
Rutgers is a +12 @ Purdue. Expect a jump playing close or winning.
 

mjjoyce51

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Interesting side note to the 9 place jump, Arizona was -12.5 over Oregon.
Rutgers is a +12 @ Purdue. Expect a jump playing close or winning.

So does the NET create their own spread or just go off of the average spread created by betting sites? Because betting sites, while still a little behind, think much more highly of Rutgers than the NET does.

I would have to imagine that the NET would have thought Rutgers was more than a 4 point underdog to Illinois if they created their own projected spread.
 

Scarlet Blind

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Stanford has a NET of 104, they would have to blow teams out by 30 for their remaining schedule to get close to 75. Stanford has a -1.3 Margin of Victory, 67.0-68.3 for their 15-12 record.
 

Scarlet Blind

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So does the NET create their own spread or just go off of the average spread created by betting sites? Because betting sites, while still a little behind, think much more highly of Rutgers than the NET does.

I would have to imagine that the NET would have thought Rutgers was more than a 4 point underdog to Illinois if they created their own projected spread.
Spreads are created by analytic sites like Ken Pom and Bart Torvik. So when teams "beat the spread" they are doing better than their predictive outcome or yearly averages offensively, defensively which will move them up across the board giving Oregon their 9 place jump. Oregon O 127.6 D 98.8. Arizona O 117 D 105, putplayed a higher team despite the loss.
 
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mjjoyce51

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Spreads are created by analytic sites like Ken Pom and Bart Torvik. So when teams "beat the spread" they are doing better than their predictive outcome or yearly average offensively, defensively which will move them up across the board giving Oregon their 9 place jump.

Well then something doesn’t seem right. How could they think that the 76th ranked team is only a 12 point underdog at the 10th ranked team?
 

kcg88

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Looking back at yesterday, 4 of the First Six Out on Bracket Matrix lost yesterday: Oklahoma, Oregon, UAB, Kansas State. SMU was idle, North Carolina win. Plus the Last Team In (BYU) lost. Two teams on the 10 line lost (Miami and Wake Forest)

Pretty good overall.
 

Scarlet Blind

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Well then something doesn’t seem right. How could they think that the 76th ranked team is only a 12 point underdog at the 10th ranked team?
Bart Torvik has a predictive score for us today of Purdue 77-64, -13. Ken Pom probably has something siimilar. probably why the line opened at -12.5. If the score ends up being Purdue 81-79, we will move up based off what they predict what the final score based on what we have done on the year so far offensively and defensively compared to the actual result of the game. That's why we have jump from 112 to 76 the last 4 wins. We are beating ourselves in what we did in the first 21 games on the year.
 

kcg88

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Watch out for Albany as an at large. Great computer number here.

 

bac2therac

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Belle Mead NJ
Update going into Sunday's games

7 SEEDS
  • MICHIGAN STATE
  • SAINT MARY'S
  • IOWA STATE
  • BOISE STATE

8 SEEDS
  • MURRAY STATE
  • XAVIER
  • COLORADO STATE
  • SETON HALL

9 SEEDS
  • IOWA
  • RUTGERS
  • WYOMING
  • NOTRE DAME

10 SEEDS
  • MIAMI
  • WAKE FOREST
  • INDIANA
  • TCU
11 SEEDS
  • MICHIGAN
  • CREIGHTON
  • MEMPHIS/SAN DIEGO STATE
  • LOYOLA/SAN FRANCISCO
12 SEEDS
  • NORTH TEXAS STATE
  • DAVIDSON
  • MISSOURI STATE
  • IONA
LAST FOUR OUT
  • BYU
  • FLORIDA
  • NORTH CAROLINA
  • BELMONT
NEXT FOUR OUT
  • KANSAS STATE
  • VIRGINIA
  • SMU
  • OKLAHOMA

Missouri State now moves in as the AQ of the MVC following the Loy. ola Chicago loss. Loyola remains in the field as an at large but barely as they fall to last 4 in line. BYU and Kansas State fall out while San Diego State moves in

A Rutgers win could move them to at least an 8 and possibly a 7 pending a full scrub tomorrow. Rutgers should remain a 9 seed even with a loss to Purdue today.
 

Scarlet Blind

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I just noticed our SOR, Strength of Record, on the bracketologists site and it is 47th right now, 1seed-11 seed & play-ins occupy 1st-46th. It is subjective but they do follow SOR in a lot of seeding and at larges. Given our remaining schedule, we will be in the 30s or higher again after regular season(30 games) before B1G tourny. We are right where we need to be. I think in 20-21 finished around 35th-40th end of reg season why the 10seed, and finished 28th after NCAAs last year. 33rd in 2019-20 probably 9seed that year.
 
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SirPerceval

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And Oregon falls just short at Arizona. Not sure wtf they were doing on last possession, down 3 with 10 seconds left and travelled driving to the basket. Almost as bad as Auburn's last possession earlier.

Another great result for us. Great game too.
Oregon moves up 9 spots after losing. Will that happen to us also if we lose close to Purdue. Meanwhile Florida only moved 6 after beating Auburn. #winsdontmatter