BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS UPDATE FOR 3/6 PAGE 23

[bac2therac]

The 6s in my bracket right now include Iowa and Ohio State but we wouldnt get them but St Marys and Alabama await. I would not want to play St Marys though.

The 7s are very doable though....Colorado State, USC, Marquette and Murray State..would not fear any of those, hopefully we can bump to a 10 seed eventually.

 

[bac2therac]

The NET is a fraud, version #2077....

Santa Clara beats #168 Portland by 24 after Portland played a game in the WCC tournament already....they jump from 74 to 66 in NET....

Portland drops from 168 to 178....

I'm not a math guy, but yes Oregon dropped from 67 to 74 in NET after losing by 20 at Washington State.

The NET is just going to randomly decide how high or low they'll decide to drop or raise a teams ranking.

it doesn't randomly do it but I agree the NET is a fraud and everyone knows it and the NCAA knows it but they will never admit they got their baby wrong

 

[bac2therac]

Seems like our seed is improving in a lot of bracket updates this morning.

Beat Penn State

in the bracket matrix today

the Xavier, Wake and Wyoming resumes are starting to look pedestrian....even the Notre Dame and Miami resumes are not so hot so a chance to move up going forward.

 

[King of S]

BAC - do you have 2 in from the Missouri Valley?

 

[bac2therac]

for now....that will change when Loyola wins today, if they lose I still tend to think it will be tough for them to get in at the end of the day but we shall see.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

If we beat PSU and lose to Min/NW is it possible we will see a Tuesday doubleheader with A RU and a Bryant game?

 

[Mr Magoo]

USF looks like a tourney team.

BYU does not look like a tourney team

Alot of numbers crunching a surprise school makes the field in tomorrow's update!

Was very impressed with USF

 

[bac2therac]

Was very impressed with USF

agreed looked like a tourney team. Will be a tough out....will be better for them to slip to a 10

 

[bac2therac]

If we beat PSU and lose to Min/NW is it possible we will see a Tuesday doubleheader with A RU and a Bryant game?

certainly a possibility, RU is no ways safe from the first four

 

[T2Kplus20]

certainly a possibility, RU is no ways safe from the first four

The first four may be the consequences of those horrific losses.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

There has to be way to adj wins and losses total based on home neutral, road, and the Quad system. but not as jaded as old RPI.

I think a Q1 Road win should carry the most weight in a win, I think a Q4 Home loss should carry the most weight in a loss but pt differential should factor in somehow, 1 pt upset win/loss shouldn't carry the same weight as a 10 point win/loss. Where the RPI always got it wrong, a home win, no matter the score, over 1-30, or 1-50, should count more in the wins than a road loss against bad opponent in the losses, the win %s aren't close and the sample size of games, 161-358 or 200+, is much bigger than the sample size of games vs 1-30 or 1-50 over the years. That would be a start in creating a better system.

For instance, it is more likely any Q1, top 75 team, to beat any Q4 team, bottom 75, by 30-40+ on the road than it is a top 75 to win or lose by 1 to a bottom 75 team.

 

[mugrat86]

I just don’t understand the purpose of the NET. Why is it important if you lose by 10 or 20 in a game. To me, it’s all about the W or the L. Also, why in the world would the committee not look at the way you finished as a key parameter? I know that used to be part of the criteria. I think, although it’s not supposed to be considered, ultimately people make the decision, and naturally they do consider the way you finish

 

[fluoxetine]

Also, why in the world would the committee not look at the way you finished as a key parameter?

Why would they?

Do any of the people who want this think it would make sense for games near the end of the NFL or NBA season to count for more than the games at the beginning?

 

[bac2therac]

I just don’t understand the purpose of the NET. Why is it important if you lose by 10 or 20 in a game. To me, it’s all about the W or the L. Also, why in the world would the committee not look at the way you finished as a key parameter? I know that used to be part of the criteria. I think, although it’s not supposed to be considered, ultimately people make the decision, and naturally they do consider the way you finish

Sorting tool

 

[STLPirate12]

I just don’t understand the purpose of the NET. Why is it important if you lose by 10 or 20 in a game. To me, it’s all about the W or the L. Also, why in the world would the committee not look at the way you finished as a key parameter? I know that used to be part of the criteria. I think, although it’s not supposed to be considered, ultimately people make the decision, and naturally they do consider the way you finish

I agree with you on the margin of victory side of the NET, mostly because of how much the end of game fouling situation can change a margin. A tight game could easily swing from a 2 point game to 8+ in the last 30 seconds just because one team's knocking down free throws while the other has to run rushed possessions and misses a couple threes. I'd propose something like taking the closest score in the last 2 minutes (that favors the winning team) as the margin, but that ignores the other side of the equation where a blowout is made to look a little closer with the walk-ons playing.

As far as how you finish, they removed it because a study of NCAA Tournament results showed that teams who finished "hot" did not fare statistically better in the tournament than those that finished "cold," so they deemed it irrelevant.

 

[bac2therac]

Bracketville Dave has RU on the 10 line

 

[mugrat86]

Why would they?

Do any of the people who want this think it would make sense for games near the end of the NFL or NBA season to count for more than the games at the beginning?

Because ultimately people are making the decision, and not just your record. There are a ton of factors that come into play, so why not look at the trends. They want the most exciting teams to make it and to me a 5 game losing streak by one team versus a five game winning streak is important

I am wondering if Rutgers lost any games since January where they were favored. If they did, it was not many

 

[MadRU]

One canceled game one less in the win total

 

[fluoxetine]

Because ultimately people are making the decision, and not just your record. There are a ton of factors that come into play, so why not look at the trends. They want the most exciting teams to make it and to me a 5 game losing streak by one team versus a five game winning streak is important

I am wondering if Rutgers lost any games since January where they were favored. If they did, it was not many

I really don't understand people saying things like this and simultaneously believing they shouldn't consider margin of victory.

Still seems to be that there are two possible philosophies of tournament selection:
(1) pick the "best" teams in some kind of predictive forward looking manner
(2) pick the most deserving teams in a back-looking wins and losses only manner

Ignoring MOV is philosophy (2), trying to have a recency bias is philosophy (1)

 

[Big boy stan]

The thing that bothers me the most about the NET is the secrecy of the formula. In what sports world is the rules or objectives not fully known by the teams. It would be like if the refs carried fouls but didn't let anyone who it was on or how many they had until they were disqualified.

 

[mugrat86]

I really don't understand people saying things like this and simultaneously believing they shouldn't consider margin of victory.

Still seems to be that there are two possible philosophies of tournament selection:
(1) pick the "best" teams in some kind of predictive forward looking manner
(2) pick the most deserving teams in a back-looking wins and losses only manner

Ignoring MOV is philosophy (2), trying to have a recency bias is philosophy (1)

Because margin of victory is severely effected by fouling to try and win games. You could determine so much more about the way a team played in a game by watching it versus margin of victory. For instance, I thought Rutgers played great against Purdue on road but lost by 12. The margin of deficit was not indicative of quality of play. Additionally, garbage time sometimes lead to blowouts becoming closer scores

 

[chrebet80]

I just don’t understand the purpose of the NET. Why is it important if you lose by 10 or 20 in a game. To me, it’s all about the W or the L. Also, why in the world would the committee not look at the way you finished as a key parameter? I know that used to be part of the criteria. I think, although it’s not supposed to be considered, ultimately people make the decision, and naturally they do consider the way you finish

Losing by 25 is worse than losing by 1. You’re being biased because you don’t like the net.

 

[chrebet80]

Because margin of victory is severely effected by fouling to try and win games. You could determine so much more about the way a team played in a game by watching it versus margin of victory. For instance, I thought Rutgers played great against Purdue on road but lost by 12. The margin of deficit was not indicative of quality of play. Additionally, garbage time sometimes lead to blowouts becoming closer scores

Rutgers was not within single digits at any point in the second half so it was very much indicative of how the game was played. You’re a homer.

 

[GRU23]

Is MOV considered in NET or just how efficient the team was on either end? Ik it is roughly the same thing but there is a slight difference

 

[motorb54]

Hate UNC. Losses on neutral courts to Purdue by 9, to Tennessee by 17, to Kentucky by 29.
Also away losses at Notre Dame by 5, at Miami by 28, at Wake by 22, at Duke by 20.

 

[RUsojo]

The thing that bothers me the most about the NET is the secrecy of the formula. In what sports world is the rules or objectives not fully known by the teams. It would be like if the refs carried fouls but didn't let anyone who it was on or how many they had until they were disqualified.

MLB strike zone every pitch 200+ times a game

 

[bac2therac]

Memphis up 19-7 early over Houston

 

[bac2therac]

Memphis up on Houston 42-20...welcome to the dance!

 

[King of S]

Memphis up on Houston 42-20...welcome to the dance!

And Memphis has punched their ticket as predicted for a few weeks now. They will be a tough out.

 

[tfio]

Are we rooting for Michigan or Ohio state here?

 

[hbbsm713]

Michigan if we want the double bye

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

Are we rooting for Michigan or Ohio state here?

Um to move up to 4 or 5 seed. Osu if you think a loss pushes Michigan behind us on bubble.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

Root for Michigan if you want the double bye and feel good about dancing.

Root for Ohio State if you are worried about dancing.

IMO

 

[jordkap]

Are we rooting for Michigan or Ohio state here?

Michigan

 

[RU23]

Glass half full, be happy either way

 

[Big boy stan]

Michigan is trying to follow RUs end of game strategy

 

[bac2therac]

Root for Michigan if you want the double bye and feel good about dancing.

Root for Ohio State if you are worried about dancing.

IMO

If you dont want Michigan competing for a bid root for Ohio State

 

[Altrev]

If you dont want Michigan competing for a bid root for Ohio State

Bac, are you rooting for MI? Your thought?

 

[cicero grimes]

Michigan if we want the double bye

I know the double bye is better for us but I would rather Michigan lose and give us a little separation for selection. I hate that they are so close to us in terms of who makes this thing.

 

[tfio]

Welp, we’re an 8pt lead with 4 minutes left and an Illinois win away from a 4 seed and double bye. Whatever happens happens but damn that’d be sweet