I won't say it will happen but I still wouldn't rule out PAC12 schools moving and ACC schools in the future in mid 2030s when the GORs are up. If the richest athletic department in the country (Texas) can leave a conference it basically was in charge of because they were worried about falling behind well then what do you think the USCs and others of the world who have value and aren't in the B10/SEC must be thinking? NIL only puts more pressure on donors/schools budgets and to maximize how much they get from media deals.
You should see Swarbrick's comments in a SI article from April. Talk about 2 solar systems (SEC/B10) and their gravitational pull and how schools (which he wouldn't name) wanting to leave their current conferences and mentioning 2030s as a time of change (GORs expire). All things I've mentioned myself here, including possibly ND finally joining a conference be it the ACC (a move that might save it) or the B10 but again mid 2030s is the timeframe. When Texas/OU left I've said a few times that I think a B10 national conference would be good idea and make it a super premium sports property...first step to the west with these tv deals coming up and the next to the east in the mid 2030s but we'll see if anything happens.
Really, if anything happens it will be similar to Texas/OU, it's not the B10 going out to fish for any school, it's more likely they come knocking just like Texas/OU. None of these schools want to move but as usually is the case, the big difference in finances is what overcomes the inertia. So if they want to move and the networks will pay, it will happen.
From the article:
Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick told
Sports Illustrated that he believes the breakup of college sports at the NCAA Division I level is “inevitable,” and puts a potential target date on that seismic change as the mid-2030s. Swarbrick also said there are “so many” schools trying to leave their current conferences, but they’re handcuffed by existing contracts.
And when those contractual obligations begin to run out, that’s when big changes could occur.
“Absent a national standard, which I don’t see coming, I think it’s inevitable,” Swarbrick said. “Mid-30s would be the logical time.”
The Southeastern Conference media rights deal runs through 2033–34. The Atlantic Coast goes through 2035–36. The Big Ten is in its negotiation window now, with Fox Sports positioned to be the major stakeholder. The Pac-12 and Big 12 are next on the clock.
Should the schism come, Notre Dame would be among those that still tied its athletics to the educational mission of the school and answered to its president and academic administration. Others could essentially be spun off while retaining the school name and branding. A theoretical example (not proffered by Swarbrick): Oregon Ducks Athletics, Inc.
The expectation is that the Big Ten and SEC will continue to leave the rest of the Power Five conferences behind in terms of revenue. The widening gap will place more stress on the current landscape, leading some schools to move away from their existing conference affiliations—and possibly leading some leagues to boot longtime members that don’t bring as much to the revenue trough.
“We’re going to have these two conferences that have so distanced themselves from anyone else financially,” Swarbrick said. “That’s where I see it starting to break down. There are so many schools trying to get out of their current conference, and they can’t get there.”
Asked which schools could be looking to move, Swarbrick answered, “None that I’d share.”
Wholesale change is unavoidable in college athletics. The Fighting Irish athletic director thinks a total realignment of Division I is coming with it.
www.si.com
Another article from Pete Thamel about an all SEC playoff which I don't think will happen but it does reference the point about pressure on the brand programs in the PAC12/ACC and their conferences falling far behind financially.
From the article:
From the
Supreme Court ruling in the Alston case that
empowered the conferences to the widening financial gap between the SEC and Big Ten and the rest of the leagues, there are significant pressure points emerging.
Talk to enough smart people around the college sports landscape, and few think that in five years it will look similar to how it does now. The ACC and Pac-12 being so far behind
financially is going to apply significant pressure on their brand-name programs like Clemson and USC. The ACC has a grant of rights that would present significant legal challenges to anyone attempting to leave before 2036. The Pac-12's contract and grant of rights are up after just two more football seasons.
While the Big Ten joined The Alliance to help calm the landscape, it will be interesting to see how long that lasts. Will pressure increase on the Big Ten to add members and attempt to keep up with the SEC? Could the SEC's next postseason exploration include more realignment ploys? Again, the Supreme Court has dictated that leagues can forge their own paths, accentuating the lack of leadership for decades from the NCAA. (Sankey was no fan of outgoing NCAA President Mark Emmert. But few were.)
Would the SEC think about really shaking up the college football landscape with its own playoff? Greg Sankey addresses that and more ahead of the league's spring meetings next week.
www.espn.com